Raps vs Kings on 01/08/21

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Assuming Fox and Holmes play, I have the Kings winning this game 116 to 113. The 3 point spread as a result of a plus 3 credit to the home team. Without the credit, my numbers comes out to 113.2 to 113.2.

The Kings currently rank 12th in scoring and 24th in defense. While the Raps rank 23rd in offense and 20th in defense. The game will come down to offensive rebounds, 3 pointers made, and steals. The differential between the two teams are about 30%. With the Kings having a big advantage in offensive rebounds (32%) and the raps leading in 3 pointers made (33%) and steals (30%).

Beyond the numbers, I've watched a decent amount of Raps games. Siakam has been subpar and the three guards (including Powell) are going to be physical, crafty, and will make their shots. Fox and Haliburton match the guards and the Kings win easily.

The spread is currently Kings +5.5 and the ov/und is 225.5. Because I have the game as a push without the homecourt credit and the projected line is just about 2% above the ov/under line, I would play the spread. Maybe buy .5 points to make it a three (or two ) shot cushion. Assuming, again, that Fox and Holmes play.
 
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