Race to the Bottom thread

The Jazz have fallen in the draft every single year since their rebuild started despite the most blatant tank job since the Process Sixers.
This is where you really wonder about rigging beyond Sacramento's impossible bad luck compared to other team's impossible good luck. Surely Utah should have hit by now going on 3 or 4 years of this crap? They deserve to be stripped of picks. And I'd say the same about us if we did it. This season has been awful enough. I forgot about how unfun it is to root against your team when the game is closing. Even though I warned about it before we got here. It sucks.

Ainge deserves the same treatment Hinkie got except he won't because he's an NBA champion.
 
This is where you really wonder about rigging beyond Sacramento's impossible bad luck compared to other team's impossible good luck. Surely Utah should have hit by now going on 3 or 4 years of this crap? They deserve to be stripped of picks. And I'd say the same about us if we did it. This season has been awful enough. I forgot about how unfun it is to root against your team when the game is closing. Even though I warned about it before we got here. It sucks.

Ainge deserves the same treatment Hinkie got except he won't because he's an NBA champion.

Utah is also playing the middle it's just on the other end of the spectrum and Ainge has gotten stuck in the process of just merely collecting pieces. They picked up Lauri as a piece and then are still kind of sitting in the no mans land of not really building around him nor are they really showcasing the pieces they have to trade because they have way too many of them now. Still, if a team is going to be stuck it's much better their way of collecting draftees and putting them in a pile over collecting MLE to min vets like the Kings always do.
 
or don't chill and just be anxious and spiteful all season, then when trades do or don't happen, continue to be the same way because it wasn't good enough or what you wanted. There's no winning with a fan like you. Trading vets for players you want to make us better? Careful, might win some games! Don't trade and continue to be one of the worst teams in the league? Careful, might win some games! Pick a lane man
wut
 
Utah is also playing the middle it's just on the other end of the spectrum and Ainge has gotten stuck in the process of just merely collecting pieces. They picked up Lauri as a piece and then are still kind of sitting in the no mans land of not really building around him nor are they really showcasing the pieces they have to trade because they have way too many of them now. Still, if a team is going to be stuck it's much better their way of collecting draftees and putting them in a pile over collecting MLE to min vets like the Kings always do.
Ainge has shown no proclivity to trade guys when they are at top value unless he completely abuses the receiving team. Most GMs aren't willing to deal with him at this point. He did this with the Celtics and they took a leap after he moved on. What he is doing to Lauri and a lesser extent Keyonte is disgraceful.
 
This is where you really wonder about rigging beyond Sacramento's impossible bad luck compared to other team's impossible good luck. Surely Utah should have hit by now going on 3 or 4 years of this crap? They deserve to be stripped of picks. And I'd say the same about us if we did it. This season has been awful enough. I forgot about how unfun it is to root against your team when the game is closing. Even though I warned about it before we got here. It sucks.

Ainge deserves the same treatment Hinkie got except he won't because he's an NBA champion.

This, more than anything, is what the NBA needs to fix. Lauri Markkanen is a very fun and exciting player to watch; he should not be getting rested for tanking purposes as he's been over the last 4 years. It's bad for the NBA landscape when guys like him are purposefully sat out of games. Makes the product infinitely worse.

The more I think about it, the more Capt's idea of letting teams dictate the draft order via a vote seems like the only viable option to discourage tanking. Even something like where they only decide the top 5 picks and the rest of the lottery is determined by record. Just take any sort of option off the table where purposefully making your team worse helps you get a better pick.

Said it over the Lakers win a few weeks back. Why should I feel bad, as a fan, that we won that game? Of course, beating the GD Lakers is always good, but it was absolutely a thought in the front of my mind of "Man, this hurts our #1 pick odds". That sucks and it's horrible for fan interaction overall.
 
This, more than anything, is what the NBA needs to fix. Lauri Markkanen is a very fun and exciting player to watch; he should not be getting rested for tanking purposes as he's been over the last 4 years. It's bad for the NBA landscape when guys like him are purposefully sat out of games. Makes the product infinitely worse.
(and I cvcan't argue
The more I think about it, the more Capt's idea of letting teams dictate the draft order via a vote seems like the only viable option to discourage tanking. Even something like where they only decide the top 5 picks and the rest of the lottery is determined by record. Just take any sort of option off the table where purposefully making your team worse helps you get a better pick.

Said it over the Lakers win a few weeks back. Why should I feel bad, as a fan, that we won that game? Of course, beating the GD Lakers is always good, but it was absolutely a thought in the front of my mind of "Man that Vivek will ever change his strategy, this hurts our #1 pick odds". That sucks and it's horrible for fan interaction over
I'd like to ask a question:

Does anyone believe that no matter what we do, who we trade for or who we draft, that we are going to be a team that EVER exceeds the cap?

Because I don't believe that Vivek will ever change his strategy (and I can't say he is wrong on that score).

This is why top GM's don't want to come here, so we get either unproven auditioneers or retreads looking for last paychecks.

Earlier in this thread, hrdboild said this:

..."the reasons that they're forever stuck as a 4-6 seed playoff team who can't get out of the first round."

Personally, given the owner's intentions (monetarily) and the fact that we are a small market team stuck in a division with four big spending owners, being a 4-6 seed playoff team who can't get out of the first round would be fine - problem is we can't seem to do even that with consistency.

Given our financial constraints, I believe we should be "aiming lower".

Because WHERE you draft a prospect determines what his salary scale will be (I think Wemby's rookie scale contract began at $10 million annually}

If we had the #3 or #4 pick, I would be looking to trade down and I would identify a player NOT in the top ten as my target.

If we get the number four pick and I could trade down to 7 or 8 and get a first rounder for doing so, I'm in and if I could trade down to 12 or 13 and get another first, I'm doing it.

And when we drop to 15, I draft Giannis.

We went through this with Cousins - his payday came up and we traded him.

No matter how high we draft, we will have to trade him when his payday comes.

Unless someone believes that Vivek will eventually sign that pick to a $300 million extension (and I don't believe that).

I'm not bring negative - I'd be HAPPY contending for a playoff spot year after year - I already accept that the Kings (under Vivek) will NEVER seriously contend for a championship.

And that's OK by me. As long as games are competitive. Which they currently are, but haven't been before this homestand.

The only way I deviate from this formula is if we have the #1 and a Wemby is there.

I checked into that possibility and we could have made the best offer for Wemby's pick

I doubt that the Kings even explored the possibility:

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7814631

swap picks and players:


Incoming Players
McDermott_Doug_sac25.jpg
Doug McDermott
34 year old, 6-7, 225 lb F from Creighton
3.4 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.3 apg in 10.0 minutes in 2025-2026
Graham_Devonte_por24.jpg
Devonte' Graham
30 year old, 6-1, 195 lb PG from Kansas
No games yet played in 2025-2026
Collins_Zach_chi25.jpg
Zach Collins
28 year old, 6-9, 240 lb C from Gonzaga
9.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.5 apg in 18.4 minutes in 2025-2026
Birch_Khem_sas23.jpg
Khem Birch
33 year old, 6-8, 233 lb PF from UNLV
No games yet played in 2025-2026
Outgoing Players
Fox_Dearon_sas25.jpg
De'Aaron Fox
28 year old, 6-3, 185 lb PG from Kentucky
20.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 6.0 apg in 32.5 minutes in 2025-2026
Sabonis_Domantas_sac25.jpg
Domantas Sabonis
29 year old, 6-10, 240 lb PF from Gonzaga
16.2 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 3.7 apg in 31.2 minutes in 2025-2026
 
But……isn’t the farthest the bottom record can fall is to number 4? Or has the rules changed.

No way the Kings end up in the top losses slot. Every year the Kings have had really good lottery odds work was put in to have a youngish team and you didn't see this kind of roster usage, not even close. Perry didn't build on the team here to do that, he added more players to win meaningless games even if the team sucked. If the Kings want a top pick, history says this is probably another team that will have to do it from near 10 back in the pack. This is at best similar to the year they tried to stack a team after just drafting Fox. There's always hoping but nah, this team is never complete with anything they do regardless.
 
But……isn’t the farthest the bottom record can fall is to number 4? Or has the rules changed.
Yes, that's correct. But we aren't ending up in last place. We are not that bad.

The point is that even if you tank and had the worst record every year for the last 7 years you still would not have gotten a #1 pick out of all that misery.
 
Mavs pulling away from the tankathon race. Won 4 straight, Kings are 7 "up" on them for

I think the tank race will be with the top four that are in it right now and the battle is for the top three seed. Crazy that NO can’t get any wins to get out of the race too bad we didn’t tank last year and get that NO pick we’d be looking at two top 5 picks but hey tanking doesn’t work
 
I think the tank race will be with the top four that are in it right now and the battle is for the top three seed. Crazy that NO can’t get any wins to get out of the race too bad we didn’t tank last year and get that NO pick we’d be looking at two top 5 picks but hey tanking doesn’t work

Why would we get the NOP pick again?
 
Yep. I should have checked the chart I posted earlier before replying from memory.

View attachment 14693
No it’s not slotting the top 5. They slot the top 4 therefore the worst the 1 seed in the lottery can pick is 5. If you want to be top 5 to get one of Flemings or the top 4 guys you can see how each seed spot of 2 and below increases your odds of not being top 5.

The problem with being the 4 seed is you have a 44.5% of picking out of the top 5. So Flemings moves from your back-up plan to your hope. That 4 game win streak playing Russ 39 minutes hurt us.
 
No it’s not slotting the top 5. They slot the top 4 therefore the worst the 1 seed in the lottery can pick is 5. If you want to be top 5 to get one of Flemings or the top 4 guys you can see how each seed spot of 2 and below increases your odds of not being top 5.

The problem with being the 4 seed is you have a 44.5% of picking out of the top 5. So Flemings moves from your back-up plan to your hope. That 4 game win streak playing Russ 39 minutes hurt us.
We were never going to be the #1± seed based on wins/losses. We have too much talent. The average pick location for seeds 1-4 is 4 based on lottery odds (rounded). Statistically, they are all pretty much equivalent.

There's also no reason that a pick at, say, 6-10, can't be better than some of the picks at 1-5. Happens every single year that top picks gets injured or is outperformed by later picks. The secret is good drafting wherever you are at and a very healthy dose of luck. A top 5 pick guarantees nothing in the long run.
 
We were never going to be the #1± seed based on wins/losses. We have too much talent. The average pick location for seeds 1-4 is 4 based on lottery odds (rounded). Statistically, they are all pretty much equivalent.

There's also no reason that a pick at, say, 6-10, can't be better than some of the picks at 1-5. Happens every single year that top picks gets injured or is outperformed by later picks. The secret is good drafting wherever you are at and a very healthy dose of luck. A top 5 pick guarantees nothing in the long run.

This is just a rehash of the old strawman argument we have on here nearly every year. No one says a top 5 draft pick guarantees anything other than picking in the top 5, but we all know that on average, the best talent is taken at the top of the draft.

If you had a chance to play Powerball with 3 tickets instead of 1 ticket, you're going to play with 3 tickets because you know you have higher odds of winning. Yeah some people have won it by only purchasing 1 ticket but why would you purposely keep your odds lower than need be if you have 3 tickets available? Winning isn't guaranteed in either scenario but why willingly argue for playing lower odds?

The top 5 this year stand out from the rest from a scouting standpoint. You want to ensure you nab one of them and if it doesn't work out, then it doesn't work out. I wouldn't even be mad at the franchise because from my point of view, they took the best player available.
 
This is just a rehash of the old strawman argument we have on here nearly every year. No one says a top 5 draft pick guarantees anything other than picking in the top 5, but we all know that on average, the best talent is taken at the top of the draft.

If you had a chance to play Powerball with 3 tickets instead of 1 ticket, you're going to play with 3 tickets because you know you have higher odds of winning. Yeah some people have won it by only purchasing 1 ticket but why would you purposely keep your odds lower than need be if you have 3 tickets available? Winning isn't guaranteed in either scenario but why willingly argue for playing lower odds?

The top 5 this year stand out from the rest from a scouting standpoint. You want to ensure you nab one of them and if it doesn't work out, then it doesn't work out. I wouldn't even be mad at the franchise because from my point of view, they took the best player available.

I'd prefer to see this franchise switch from a "we'll get a good player in the draft regardless" mindset to a "here's the three or four guys we really believe in, let's find a way to get one of them" mindset. I guess the biggest part of that is the scouting department correctly identifying who those guys are going to be but most of my Kings related angst over the years has not been in the direction of this team not having talent. It's been that we constantly assemble talent that doesn't fit together and a coach who is at odds with the roster and then wonder why we're sputtering aimlessly year to year looking for an identity.

There's going to be talented players in this draft throughout the lottery but not all of them are likely to have success in Sacramento given the few key players we already have in place. Not all of them fit the defensive-first grind it out mindset that our current leadership claims to want. And not all of them will want to stay long term in a small market and wait out however many years it takes to build a winning team around them. The biggest part of the job is going to be sorting through all of that to come out with the right player. I think Monte nailed it with Keegan Murray but we still haven't seen him take off as a leader yet. He's got a lot of tools and a lot of potential and seems like he's in it for the long haul with this team. The quickest way out of this black hole is to find the right player to put next to Keegan for them both to reach their full potential. Then we have a core of 2 going forward instead of just a core of 1.
 
This is just a rehash of the old strawman argument we have on here nearly every year. No one says a top 5 draft pick guarantees anything other than picking in the top 5, but we all know that on average, the best talent is taken at the top of the draft.

If you had a chance to play Powerball with 3 tickets instead of 1 ticket, you're going to play with 3 tickets because you know you have higher odds of winning. Yeah some people have won it by only purchasing 1 ticket but why would you purposely keep your odds lower than need be if you have 3 tickets available? Winning isn't guaranteed in either scenario but why willingly argue for playing lower odds?

The top 5 this year stand out from the rest from a scouting standpoint. You want to ensure you nab one of them and if it doesn't work out, then it doesn't work out. I wouldn't even be mad at the franchise because from my point of view, they took the best player available.
Great post. I’m curious who you have as #5. Assuming 1-4 is Peterson, Dybantsa, boozer, Wilson in some order.
 
We were never going to be the #1± seed based on wins/losses. We have too much talent. The average pick location for seeds 1-4 is 4 based on lottery odds (rounded). Statistically, they are all pretty much equivalent.

There's also no reason that a pick at, say, 6-10, can't be better than some of the picks at 1-5. Happens every single year that top picks gets injured or is outperformed by later picks. The secret is good drafting wherever you are at and a very healthy dose of luck. A top 5 pick guarantees nothing in the long run.
Since when is a 7.678% delta statistically insignificant? There is multiple evaluations and history that shows picking 1-4 is more often better than 6-10. Just because you can find individual instances counter does not change the probabilities.
 
Since when is a 7.678% delta statistically insignificant? There is multiple evaluations and history that shows picking 1-4 is more often better than 6-10. Just because you can find individual instances counter does not change the probabilities.
Theoretically better? Sure. In reality? Not so much. Depends on who is picking, how players are developed, how our front office manages coaches and GMs and the salary cap. History is littered with picks after 5 performing better than numerous picks 1-5. And with us, it isn't isolated or individual instances. It's pretty consistent.

The thing is, everyone gets googly-eyed over the pick number and not the picks themselves. Kings history: Bagley. Evans over Curry and DeRozan. T-Rob. Mitchell over Sengun. Marquese Chriss over Sabonis and others (and the infamous Papa G over EVERYONE else). McLemore. WCS over Booker and others. Stauskas. Fredette. The list goes on and on and on and on and on and on. It doesn't matter where we pick when we consistently blow the picks anyways!

Are higher picks (generally) good? Yes! Does that mean anything is guaranteed with this team? NO! You're talking theory. I'm talking real world. Frankly, I'd rather see them trade the pick for a good young player many/most years than suffering through years of "potential development" only to end up disappointed again and again. See above for reference.
 
The San Antonio Spurs drafting Manu Ginobili at 57 and Tony Parker at 28 are PRIME examples of this.

Yeah but lets be honest, they're luck was Tim Duncan and that affords teams to do a LOT when it comes to taking stabs on potential. They also largely got in before anyone really jumped on the Euro train. There is so much easily accessible video out there now it's hard to surprise your way into much of anything anymore.
 
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