Projected numbers for 07-08

[Kingsin07]

This is how I see things shaking out assuming we have no more deals this off-season:

SF-Artest
16.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.1 spg

PF-Moore
9.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.2 bpg

C-Miller
10.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.5 apg

PG-Bibby
16.5 ppg, 5.7 apg, 1.1 spg

SG-Martin
17.7 ppg, 3.5 apg, 1.4 spg

Bench Contributors:
Garcia 9.5 ppg, 1 spg
Abdur-Rahim 6.5 ppg
Salmons-6 ppg
Hawes 3.5 ppg, 0.5 bpg
KT/Douby/Williams/etc-5.0 ppg

Kings will average just under 100 ppg and will give up roughly 103 ppg as a season average. Defense and rebounding will continue to be the achilles heel on many nights, while on others lask of athleticism will plague them. I am sticking to my 30-52 prediction, with 35-47 the best case scenario. Does this team excite you?

 

[AriesMar27]

i cant see martin and bibby's ppg dropping that much.... if anything they would go up... miller i agree, moore maybe... but i just cant see martin dropping like that... he'll average atleast 22ppg... bibby will be about 19 if not more. if his shot is falling then he'll get 20 and that will make things a lot easier for martin, garcia and artest to get their shots going.

 

[Packt]

At 32 Moore is going to grab 7.5 rebounds, when he has never been anywhere near that. Yet KT is regulated to barely mentioned at all even though he's been our best rebounder.

 

[VF21]

At 32 Moore is going to grab 7.5 rebounds, when he has never been anywhere near that. Yet KT is regulated to barely mentioned at all even though he's been our best rebounder.

I think just about everyone is assuming KT doesn't have a real future with the Kings. He's certainly not going to be a pivotal player...

 

[kingsfan916]

i just dont see kmarts average dropping that much

 

[1kingzfan]

I may be a self-proclaimed KMart homer, but I really don't see how his scoring average can fall in 07-08.

All indications are that the Kings tempo will be much quicker than last season's ridiculous EC-in-the-WC pace. I truly believe that Kevin can score MORE this season as a result, since a faster game will play to his strengths. He will demonstrate clearly (since it's not already apparent to all) in the new season that he is amongst the best and quickest afoot in the open floor.

Naturally, he will also need to remain just as productive as he was last season when the Kings run their set offense, whatever that will be. But the kid rarely takes a bad shot, and I do not expect a $55 million contract to change that very much.

All arrows appear to be pointing up for Kevin.

 

[icp3425]

hawes 3.5 points? does that mean hes playing like 7 minutes or something?what is the point of drafting him if he gets no playing time?

 

[dude12]

I also think that KMart will be around 20ish points /gm. I also think that Hawes will be more around 8/gm. KT won't have a role here. The other variables I think are Douby and J Williams. How big a role are they going to have?

 

[fnordius]

Assuming every player is as productive (per minute) as last season, and assuming a
PT breakdown as follows:
96 for F/C: assuming 25 Miller, 25 Moore, 20 SAR, 10 Thomas, 10 Williams, 7 Hawes
48 for SF: assuming 30 Artest, 18 Garcia
48 for SG: assuming 33 Martin, 15 Salmons
48 for PG: assuming 34 Bibby, 5 Douby, 5 Salmons, 4 Shakur/Greene

Bibby: 17.2 pts, 3.2 reb, 4.8 asst, 1.1 stl, 0.1 blk
Douby: 1.7 pts, 0.5 reb, 0.2 asst, 0.2 stl, 0.0 blk
Martin: 19.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.1 asst, 1.2 stl, 0.2 blk
Salmons: 6.3 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.4 asst, 0.7 stl, 0.2 blk
Garcia: 6.6 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.2 asst, 0.6 stl, 0.6 blk
Artest: 14.9 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.8 asst, 1.8 stl, 0.5 blk
SAR: 7.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.1 asst, 0.5 stl, 0.4 blk
Williams: 4.0 pts, 3.5 reb, 0.0 asst, 0.1 stl, 0.5 blk
Thomas: 2.3 pts, 2.7 reb, 0.5 asst, 0.3 stl, 0.1 blk
Miller: 7.9 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 asst, 0.5 stl, 0.5 blk
Moore: 9.3 pts, 4.8 reb, 0.8 asst, 0.5 stl, 0.7 blk
Hawes+Shakur+Greene=Mateen
Totals: 97 pts, 38.6 reb, 19 asst, 7.5 stl, 3.8 blk
Last year: 101.3 pts, 38.9 reb, 20.3 asst, 8.2 stl, 3.2 blk

So if Hawes+Shakur+Greene can, in a total of 11 minutes per game, put up 4.3 pts, 0.3 reb, 1.3 asst, 0.7 stl and 0.0 blk, we will be exactly the same as last year, but with a bonus 0.6 blks per game.
Realistically, I think we will get about 101 pts, 40 reb, 19.5 asst, 8 stl, and 3.9 blk with this roster.

 

[Kingsin07]

K-Mart scoring almost 18 a game is what I expect for several reasons. First, he will be the focus of opposing defenses and that likely will slow him down certain nights. Second, it isn't unheard of for players who sign big contracts/extensions to have some up's and down's after signing the deal. I don't consider 18 ppg much of a down and if he could improve his defense and score a couple points less, that would be huge. Finally, the Reggie Theus era doesn't promise to be any more offensive-minded that the E-Muss era, hopefully just a lot less offensive. I would be surprised if K-Mart finished the season averaging over 20 ppg.

 

[VF21]

K-Mart scoring almost 18 a game is what I expect for several reasons. First, he will be the focus of opposing defenses and that likely will slow him down certain nights. Second, it isn't unheard of for players who sign big contracts/extensions to have some up's and down's after signing the deal. I don't consider 18 ppg much of a down and if he could improve his defense and score a couple points less, that would be huge. Finally, the Reggie Theus era doesn't promise to be any more offensive-minded that the E-Muss era, hopefully just a lot less offensive. I would be surprised if K-Mart finished the season averaging over 20 ppg.

I think you're going to be surprised then.

 

[Kingzrool]

I think you're going to be surprised then.

I am with VF on this one. Kevin will be the ppg leader again, should be over 20, I am thinking anywhere from 20-25. Although I do think the offense will run through him more often and his % will go down. Bibby thrives off a productive shooter, I can see a relationship developing there.

 

[Gary]

At 32 Moore is going to grab 7.5 rebounds, when he has never been anywhere near that. Yet KT is regulated to barely mentioned at all even though he's been our best rebounder.

He is on a horrible rebounding team (Moore) so his #s should be a bit better per minute than in NJ.

KT is going to get a free plane ticket out of here if he will ever accedt my offer.

 

[Gary]

Anyhow, here are my stats for the top 8 or 9... In no particular order by position or bench/starting role..

Miller - 8ppg - 6.5rpg - 3.5apg - 1.0spg - 0.6bpg - 45%fg - 75%ft
SAR - 10ppg - 5.5rpg - 1.5apg - 0.7spg - 0.3bpg - 47%fg - 72%ft
Martin - 21ppg - 4.5rpg - 2.5apg - 1.5spg - 0.2bpg - 46%fg - 88%ft - 38%3pt
Garcia - 15.5ppg - 5.5rpg - 3.5apg - 1.8spg - 1.0bpg - 44%fg - 81%ft - 37%3pt
Bibby - 16.5ppg - 3.5rpg - 6.0apg - 1.3spg - 0.1bpg - 42%fg - 84%ft - 34%3pt
Artest - 18.5ppg - 6.5rpg - 4.0apg - 2.5spg - 0.8bpg - 43%fg - 75%ft - 32%3pt
Moore - 8.5ppg - 5.5rpg - 0.8apg - 0.8spg - 0.4bpg - 51%fg - 68%ft
Williams - 7.5ppg - 8.0rpg - 0.7apg - 1.0sg - 1.3bpg - 52%fg - 53%ft
Salmons - 11.0ppg - 4.5rpg - 4.0apg - 1.5spg - 0.5bpg - 42%fg - 77%ft - 38%3pt

I could go on but it will be pretty dismal

 

[Kingsin07]

If you believe Gary's post, the Kings will average 116.5 ppg this upcoming season. Why don't we just fit the rings right now and schedule the parade?

The Kings wouldn't even score 116.5 ppg vs. themselves and their crappy defense. Nice job with all the ancillary stats and numbers, but the math here doesn't add up.

Garcia and Salmons avg 26.5 ppg between them? The entire bench will be lucky to score that nightly.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

hawes 3.5 points? does that mean hes playing like 7 minutes or something?what is the point of drafting him if he gets no playing time?

He probably wont play alot until after the all-star break...unless he shows Theus something incredibly worthy of immediate playing time.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

If you believe Gary's post, the Kings will average 116.5 ppg this upcoming season. Why don't we just fit the rings right now and schedule the parade?

The Kings wouldn't even score 116.5 ppg vs. themselves and their crappy defense. Nice job with all the ancillary stats and numbers, but the math here doesn't add up.

Garcia and Salmons avg 26.5 ppg between them? The entire bench will be lucky to score that nightly.

Yeah, no kidding...and if Gary's #'s pan out, the Kings will also average 50 rpg, too...MAN...that's alot of rebounds! We dont see 50 rebounds in TWO games sometimes, let alone one.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

I am sticking to my 30-52 prediction, with 35-47 the best case scenario. Does this team excite you?

I think the second record you predicted would be more realistic...but with a new Reggie, old Brad and old Mike, who the hell knows what can happen, right??

edit: and who knows how much Cisco and Williams might bring us this year...that could be HUGE!

 

[Gary]

If you believe Gary's post, the Kings will average 116.5 ppg this upcoming season. Why don't we just fit the rings right now and schedule the parade?

The Kings wouldn't even score 116.5 ppg vs. themselves and their crappy defense. Nice job with all the ancillary stats and numbers, but the math here doesn't add up.

Garcia and Salmons avg 26.5 ppg between them? The entire bench will be lucky to score that nightly.

?? Every player does not play every game Remember a few years back (believe it was 2002) when if all the players we had on the team scored that amnt every night we would have averaged like 140+ppg.. This is just player by player best case scenarios I am listing. I don't think they will all play every game...

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

?? Every player does not play every game Remember a few years back (believe it was 2002) when if all the players we had on the team scored that amnt every night we would have averaged like 140+ppg.. This is just player by player best case scenarios I am listing. I don't think they will all play every game...

Yeah, I hear ya...but I will say that if Garcia averages 15/5 Salmons 11/4.5/4 and Williams averages 8/8 off the bench...the Kings will be in the playoffs.

 

[Gary]

sorry.. Was wrong above.. The Kings players all averaged (if they scored their average every night) 132ppg, not 140.. But we only put out 103ppg as a team!!! AMAZING how that works

Give me a break people.

Oh btw.. our "bench" averaged about 35ppg 24rpg last year if you add up all the bench players stats. But of couse they did not all play 82 games did they?

 

[Gary]

Yeah, I hear ya...but I will say that if Garcia averages 15/5 Salmons 11/4.5/4 and Williams averages 8/8 off the bench...the Kings will be in the playoffs.

I don't expect Garcia to be off the bench the entire year. I am hoping we trade Artest before the year.. I had a post a while back where I predicted bench/starting stats from Garcia. 9ppg off the bench, and 15-16 as a starter. Pretty much averages what he did near the end of the year when he got PT as a starter/bench player. HOPEFULLY Williams will get 20mpg.. But That is best case. All of my stats re best case for each player given the playing time. We all know they wont all get PT, and we all know they wont all play 82 games.. So it's best case. Given the PT they can average what I put imo.

 

[hiero]

K-Mart scoring almost 18 a game is what I expect for several reasons. First, he will be the focus of opposing defenses and that likely will slow him down certain nights. Second, it isn't unheard of for players who sign big contracts/extensions to have some up's and down's after signing the deal. I don't consider 18 ppg much of a down and if he could improve his defense and score a couple points less, that would be huge. Finally, the Reggie Theus era doesn't promise to be any more offensive-minded that the E-Muss era, hopefully just a lot less offensive. I would be surprised if K-Mart finished the season averaging over 20 ppg.

hes still pretty much our main option on offense, and our offense is going to be more uptempo and not half court hold the ball til 5 seconds are left on the shot clock then force a shot up crap that we saw for a lot of last year. Kmart is only getting better and stronger and more complete, he will definitely average over 20ppg for the year.

 

[VF21]

Another important factor to consider in Martin's case is the automatic benching when he committed his second foul, regardless of the circumstances. I cannot even begin to count the number of times I screamed in frustration at the TV as Musselman motioned Kevin to the bench for the egregious sin of commiting a foul, whether it was a ticky-tack call, a good defensive move, etc. I do recall, however, a couple of instances when Martin heard the whistle, looked up at the ref and saw his number signaled, and simply headed for the bench. He knew Musselman was pulling him out... If I had to single out one of the DUMBEST things Musselman did, it might well be that decision.

Without that hanging over his head, I suspect there will be a number of games where Martin isn't pulled early in the game and then not put back in until he was ice cold and disheartened.

 

[Packt]

I think just about everyone is assuming KT doesn't have a real future with the Kings. He's certainly not going to be a pivotal player...

The favoritism is getting out of hand. People don't like KT, so they rather he not play. He has three years left on his contract, I'd say it's as close to be written in stone as they come. He was the Kings best rebounder last year and our our coach was axed, I can only hope partly because of the dismal rebounding. Theus, hopefully will be better at "teaching rebounding", or at least smart enough to use his only rebounder.

Kenny played 23 minutes and grabbed 6 boards. He should more than likely be around there again this year. It's not like we picked up rebounders this off-season.

As far as Kevin, I'm not sure where he'll be, but I disagree that we were a half-court EC team. The team was a run and gun team, we just sucked at it. Everyone's game plummeted without the structure, Kevin thrived. The offensive execution was bad, but it didn't matter for Kevin, because he has his quickness to make up for it. Under Muss, he was able to play to his strength, which is on-the-ball. If Theus runs him off-ball, his numbers will stumble.

 

[VF21]

Favoritism? Excuse me? I simply said that most people ("just about everyone") are assuming KT doesn't have a real future with the Kings. Why? Because he has never really found his niche and he could easily go the way of a number of other NBA players who have been waived or bought out of their contracts because they do not fit into the future plans of a team. That's not favoritism; that's simply remarking on the obvious.

If you think KT will, in fact, be a pivotal player with the Kings, that's your prediction. We'll have to wait and see...

 

[fnordius]

sorry.. Was wrong above.. The Kings players all averaged (if they scored their average every night) 132ppg, not 140.. But we only put out 103ppg as a team!!! AMAZING how that works

Give me a break people.

Oh btw.. our "bench" averaged about 35ppg 24rpg last year if you add up all the bench players stats. But of couse they did not all play 82 games did they?

That's exactly the problem you're running into: they may say that someone played X number of minutes per game, but they're only talking about the games he actually played in. In my post, I had to do all sorts of calculations to get around that. Justin Williams averaged 12.8 minutes per game he was in, but 12.8 * 82 = 1050 minutes, in reality he only played 333 minutes last year. It's kind of stupid they way stats are posted like that.

 

[Packt]

Favoritism? Excuse me? I simply said that most people ("just about everyone") are assuming KT doesn't have a real future with the Kings. Why? Because he has never really found his niche and he could easily go the way of a number of other NBA players who have been waived or bought out of their contracts because they do not fit into the future plans of a team. That's not favoritism; that's simply remarking on the obvious.

If you think KT will, in fact, be a pivotal player with the Kings, that's your prediction. We'll have to wait and see...

Because rebounding isn't pivotal? There is no one who's clear and away better than Kenny, nor even a little better than Kenny. Yet Kenny won't play, at all. He'll be bought out, he'll be waived, don't worry. Lots of players like Kenny has been bought out or waived, guys who are their teams best rebounder, on a team with no rebounder. A team that needed rebounding so bad they signed Mikki Moore, who's never been a rebounder in his career. Talk about no future with the team, Moore has no future with the Kings.

The only obvious is that Kenny has been the Kings best rebounder.

My favoritism comment wasn't aimed at you. It was at the ridiculousness of the board the past few months. Kenny Thomas won't play over guys who have done nothing in their careers because... I don't like him.

 

[VF21]

And being the best rebounder on a bad team means less than diddly squat. He has never fit in. Can you honestly deny that?

His jerseys don't sell. He appears somewhat detached and aloof, although that could simply be his type of personality. He has never warmed to the crowd and the crowd has never warmed to him. He doesn't seem to be part of the TEAM.

Those are facts, Packt. He could be the best apple on the tree, but if you're making a peach pie he isn't going to meet your needs.

I'm not saying, BTW, that rebounding isn't pivotal. I'm saying that KENNY THOMAS is not going to be a key part of the future of the Kings. I think that's readily apparent to just about everyone. And it's about everything besides his rpg.

There is no one who's clear and away better than Kenny, nor even a little better than Kenny.

And that's really very, very sad. No one better on our team at rebounds than Kenny Thomas is a red flag so big you can see it from outer space. You don't keep him because he's the best of a bad batch.

 

[Kingster]

I don't expect Garcia to be off the bench the entire year. I am hoping we trade Artest before the year.. I had a post a while back where I predicted bench/starting stats from Garcia. 9ppg off the bench, and 15-16 as a starter. Pretty much averages what he did near the end of the year when he got PT as a starter/bench player. HOPEFULLY Williams will get 20mpg.. But That is best case. All of my stats re best case for each player given the playing time. We all know they wont all get PT, and we all know they wont all play 82 games.. So it's best case. Given the PT they can average what I put imo.

And of course the bench guys typically play against other bench guys, so the projected averages can be very misleading.