Projected Minutes Distribution With Bagley's Return

lwc

lwc

Starter
When all players are fully healthy:
Minutes by position:
PG - Fox - 35 / Joseph 13
SG - Buddy - 35 / Bogdan 13
SF/3rd Guard - Barnes - 35 / Bogdan 13
PF/Stretch-4 - Bjelica - 30 / Ariza - 10 / Bagley 8
C - Bagley - 25/ Holmes 23

Total minutes -
Fox - 35
Buddy - 35
Barnes - 35
Bagley - 33
Bjelica - 30
Bogdan - 26
Holmes - 23
Joseph - 13
Ariza - 10

I truly do not believe Ariza has earned the 10 minutes he gets based on floor productivity but practice reports and being a veteran buys him 10 minutes from me. He's currently averaging 22 minutes but I've got to reward Joseph for his good play which steals some time from Bogdan at 6th man PG duties, so I split Bogan's time between 2-guard and 3-man. I want Bogdan at the 3 for his minutes there in lineups that are "small-ball" to spread the floor and let Bagley create low-post offense.

Holmes has played so well that I split 8 of Bagley's minutes up and put him at the 4 just to see if a lineup with Holmes and Bagley on the floor together can work. This all becomes easier if Dedmon can find his shot again because then the Kings could have fresh lineups with Bagley-Dedmon and Bjelica-Holmes so that Bjelica and Dedmon can exploit their range and so that Holmes and Bagley can work inside.

I think the weakness of my work here is that Joseph only has 13 minutes but who loses minutes when the Kings have 4 great guards for 2 guard slots? Please lend me your wisdom in making that work. It's hard to steal starters minutes from Fox and Buddy.

(On a side note, I believe minutes distribution on a good team with any modicum of depth is the hardest part of coaching. I'm not a coach and even doing the work I just did gave me the metaphorical "sweats".)
 
So if Luke goes with top 8 players (Like last two wins)

PG - Fox - 35 / Joseph 13
SG - Buddy - 35 / Bogdan 13
SF/3rd Guard - Barnes - 35 / Bogdan 13
PF/Stretch-4 - Bjelica - 31 / Bagley 17
C - Bagley - 16/ Holmes 32

Total minutes -
Fox - 35
Buddy - 35
Barnes - 35
Bagley - 33
Bjelica - 31
Bogdan - 26
Holmes - 32
Joseph - 13
Ariza - 0

If Luke wants to play Pace and 10 Players?

PG - Fox - 30 / Joseph 18
SG - Buddy - 30 / Bogdan 18
SF/3rd Guard - Barnes - 30 / Bogdan 8/Ariza 10
PF/Stretch-4 - Bagley 22/ Bjelica 26
C - Dedmon 10/Holmes 30/Bagley 8

Total minutes -
Fox - 30
Buddy - 30
Barnes - 30
Bagley - 30
Bjelica - 26
Bogdan - 26
Holmes - 30
Joseph - 18
Ariza - 10
Dedmon - 10

5 best players get 30 min, Bog/Beli get 26, Dedman ,Ariza gets 10
Fresh legs for pace
 
Including Barnes, there are only 12 players in the NBA averaging 35+ minutes, and as the team gets healthy, you hope he gets a little more rest.
So the most realistic scenario is Fox/Barnes/Buddy penciled for 32ish, Bagley/Holmes/Bogi close to 30, then matchups determine the rest.
 
I think we've seen the plan the last couple days with Bjelica filling in at small-ball 5. Bagley and Holmes will start then just rotate Bagley/Holmes/Bjelica with all 3 being interchangeable with each other.

Holmes minutes won't get touched. He's by far been our best player this season and a big reason we were able to salvage the 0-5 start.
 
I’m more interested in how Bagley and Holmes will function together at this point than minute distribution. Without Fox in the starting lineup and without Beli - there are no primary playmakers IMO. I’d guess you’d play through Bagley at the elbow and have Holmes and CoJo setting screens for Buddy and Barnes. But that sounds terrible to me.
 
I'd probably approach it with two different rotations/lineups. One for if we need extra size for a particular game and one if the opposing team isn't particularly big/strong in their frontcourt.

Size Needed:
PG - Fox (32 min) / Joseph (16 min)
SG - Hield (30 min) / Bogdanovic (18 min)
SF - Barnes (30 min) / Bogdanovic (12 min) / Ariza (6 min)
PF - Bagley (22 min) / Bjelica (26 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Dedmon (10 min) / Bagley (8 min)

Fox = 32 min
Hield = 30 min
Bogdanovic = 30 min
Barnes = 30 min
Bagley = 30 min
Holmes = 30 min
Bjelica = 26 min
Joseph = 16 min
Dedmon = 10 min
Ariza = 6 min

Size Not Needed:
PG - Fox (32 min) / Joseph (16 min)
SG - Hield (30 min) / Bogdanovic (18 min)
SF - Barnes (20 min) / Bogdanovic (12 min) / Ariza (16 min)
PF - Bagley (12 min) / Bjelica (26 min) / Barnes (10 min)
C - Holmes (30 min) / Bagley (18 min)

Fox = 32 min
Hield = 30 min
Bogdanovic = 30 min
Barnes = 30 min
Bagley = 30 min
Holmes = 30 min
Bjelica = 26 min
Joseph = 16 min
Ariza = 16 min
 
I hope not too many. We are better with Bjelica and Holmes getting most of the minutes. Develop him off the bench, make him prove it.
 
Bagley needs to come off the bench for the time being, the Kings are in a good groove and have grown some chemistry with the starters and I wouldn't want to see Luke mess with that unless the Kings fall into a prolonged slump
 
I think coach Walton will ease Bagley back into the starting lineup.

With Fox projected to return right around Christmas, that would get Bagley 5 or 6 games to get back up to speed, before Fox's return.

I'm guessing that Bagley will break back into the starting lineup, once Fox is ready to return. Fox's return will help spread the floor, if Bjelica is replaced in the starting lineup by Bagley. I would want to keep Richaun Holmes in the starting unit, with Bagley.

Big man minute distribution would be Bagley 28 min, Holmes 28 min, Bjeli 26 min, Ariza 14 min. HG and Dedmon will need to wait their turn for minutes.

I can see Fox and Bagley returning to the starting lineup in tandem around Christmas. The lineup after Fox's return:

PF Bagley / Bjeli
SF Barnes / Ariza
C Holmes / HG / Dedmon
SG Hield / Bogdan / JJ
PG Fox / Joseph / Ferrell

9 man rotation in bold, with HG, Ferrell, Dedmon and JJ getting spot minutes, as needed.
 
Iced Espresso said:
Floor spacing with Bjelica and the near league leading fg percentage for Holmes. Combine that with Bjelica shooting 42.6% from 3 this year.

I challenge you to find a single pf + C combo who can beat them in fg%

Beyond that Holmes plays fantastic team defense.
Click to expand...
Iced Espresso said:
Holmes right now is second in the NBA in fg%

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/field-goal-percentage

And for people who shoot 4 or more 3's a game, Bjelica is 11th in the league

3'd highest PF

https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/player/_/table/offensive/sort/threePointFieldGoalPct/dir/desc

Consider what this does for both players spacing, and basic facilitation on offense for the team.
Click to expand...

Unironically love these takes and it's undoubtedbly a major key to our (moderate) success this year... but... Bagley represents such a major step up in talent from either Holmes or Belly that you simply have to let him play how he plays. I think people have forgotten how dominant he can be in the post as well. He and Belly are an interesting pairing for that reason as well. I think minutes should evenutally be roughly split between the three, with the edge going to Bagley and Holmes. Long term: the real weapon comes when Bagley develops a three. We've already seen very good touch out to 15-18 feet. I hope he's been working on his three while recovering from the injury. Imagine a lineup where 1-5 can knock down threes (Belly and Bagley on floor together), or at least 4/5 (if/when Holmes starts). That's where this is going.
 
L'Optimisme said:
Unironically love these takes and it's undoubtedbly a major key to our (moderate) success this year... but... Bagley represents such a major step up in talent from either Holmes or Belly that you simply have to let him play how he plays. I think people have forgotten how dominant he can be in the post as well. He and Belly are an interesting pairing for that reason as well. I think minutes should evenutally be roughly split between the three, with the edge going to Bagley and Holmes. Long term: the real weapon comes when Bagley develops a three. We've already seen very good touch out to 15-18 feet. I hope he's been working on his three while recovering from the injury. Imagine a lineup where 1-5 can knock down threes (Belly and Bagley on floor together), or at least 4/5 (if/when Holmes starts). That's where this is going.
Click to expand...

Long term I'd like Bagley to become an all around threat and also pass the ball better seeing the floor. So as a second year player I'd prefer to keep him with Bjelica more so than Holmes while he develops more.

Maybe after another year or so he'd pair better with Holmes.

I think Bagley's overall effectiveness will be better off the bench and playing simultaneously with Bjelica, or maybe Barnes when we can get away with it.

He may get there to be able to play with Holmes without clogging things up eventually. But we've got a perfect offensive pair in Holmes + Bjelica on the cheap for now.

There's no rush for Marvin, may as well put him in his most likely chance to succeed with the teams also for now.
 
New Era said:
No way Holmes should be reduced to 23. He's probably our most valuable and effective player right now.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, I was close to correct. Holmes has played roughly 25 minutes per game since Bagley has been back. He was averaging about 30 MPG before that
 
Any situation where Holmes get's less than 30-36mins will result in the magnificent 0-.5 start from the start of the season, it's amazing we just never learn we finally find a gem and limit his playing time.....Kangz. No one of the team can replace what he does and his impact on winning when not limited by the coach is insane.
 
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