Power Rankings -- Preseason Variety

Bricklayer

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
The very first power rankings for Mr. Slim's perusal:

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings/_/year/2016/week/-1

#21 -- Gotta go back to 2007-08 for their most recent 30-win season, but you're starting to hear some "watch out for the Kings" chatter out there. And the edgy nature of the group, with summer signee Rajon Rondo launched into the mix, makes it feel like George Karl's kind of team ... despite some of the legit question marks about fit.
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P.S. With our fast start we tricked Spike into being a very dutiful power rankings monkey last year -- it looked like it would be fun for a while, but he hung in there, likely by using his students as unpaid slave labor to do the grunt work, and kept on plugging them out all season even as Rome burned. As the season approaches we will eventually need a PR Monkey again this season, as once again hope springs eternal.
 
Only 9 teams in the west in front of us. Just gotta pass two. Lookout Dallas and Utah here we come
 
Sac.Kings said:
Dallas is finished, they are worse than they were last year. Utah lost their starting PG. We can do this!
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Ya Dallas is done put a fork in them. Dirk looked finished last year and continued that in fiba play where he shot under 40%. There 2nd and 3rd options matthews and Parsons are reportedly not clear for training camp. Lastly they have no front court depth they have Zaza starting and terrible back ups.

Our competitors for the 8th are Phoenix and Utah.
 
Entity said:
Only 9 teams in the west in front of us. Just gotta pass two. Lookout Dallas and Utah here we come
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West is unique this year that there actually are openings for other teams to get in. With Portland and Dallas falling so far off the map, only GSW, Spurs, Grizzlies, Clips, Houston and OKC are teams you can pretty much lock in. I think Us, Dallas, PHX, Pelicans and Utah will be the 5 teams looking for those last 2 spots.
 
The_Jamal said:
West is unique this year that there actually are openings for other teams to get in. With Portland and Dallas falling so far off the map, only GSW, Spurs, Grizzlies, Clips, Houston and OKC are teams you can pretty much lock in. I think Us, Dallas, PHX, Pelicans and Utah will be the 5 teams looking for those last 2 spots.
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If OKC has another bout with injuries coupled with new coach. That spot maybe up for grabs.
 
Bricklayer said:
P.S. With our fast start we tricked Spike into being a very dutiful power rankings monkey last year -- it looked like it would be fun for a while, but he hung in there, likely by using his students as unpaid slave labor to do the grunt work, and kept on plugging them out all season even as Rome burned.
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I'm willing to do it again, but dammit, I want a banner!
 
Entity said:
If OKC has another bout with injuries coupled with new coach. That spot maybe up for grabs.
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I guess, but any team where Durant and Westbrook are healthy aren't missing the playoffs, no matter the coaching situation. I doubt those 2 miss 65+ games as they did last year
 
Entity said:
If OKC has another bout with injuries coupled with new coach. That spot maybe up for grabs.
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I don't think that happens again as long as one of KD and Russ play 60+ games. They almost made it last year with all those injuries. I really hope the Exum injury hurts the Jazz as bad as I think it will and Morris causes trouble in phoenix.
 
The_Jamal said:
West is unique this year that there actually are openings for other teams to get in. With Portland and Dallas falling so far off the map, only GSW, Spurs, Grizzlies, Clips, Houston and OKC are teams you can pretty much lock in. I think Us, Dallas, PHX, Pelicans and Utah will be the 5 teams looking for those last 2 spots.
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Exactly. Assuming full health, the top 6 in the west are really, really good. But after that there's a bit of a "scrum" for the last two spots among flawed teams, and the Kings should certainly be in that mix.
 
LPKingsFan said:
Exactly. Assuming full health, the top 6 in the west are really, really good. But after that there's a bit of a "scrum" for the last two spots among flawed teams, and the Kings should certainly be in that mix.
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But assuming full health is a big assumption. Sure, OKC may be relatively healthy (I'd be really disappointed if Durant and Westbrook end up being injury prone ala Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady) but if Harden went down for a big chunk of the season the Rockets could be in big trouble. Anthony Davis is the key to New Orleans. The Warriors were very fortunate with injuries last year (and being so good that they could pull their starters from a lot of games didn't hurt at all) but if Curry's ankles forced him to miss most of the season? If the Clips had injuries to Griffin and Paul? And of course if Boogie has a season ending injury the Kings season goes with him.

I would agree that given relatively good health those six teams are virtual locks for the playoffs. But statistically there's a good chance one of them misses the postseason due to injuries etc.
 
Letsgokings13 said:
Haha we are only 1.5 games better!
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So the Kings lost their best player for more than a fourth of the season (23 games), lost their starting PG (and arguably third best player) for nearly half the season (37 games), fired two coaches, had massive upheaval and discord in the front office and won just 29 games.

Now they have a hall of fame coach with a full offseason and training camp, a top 6 pick who addresses a couple of major needs (rim protection, athleticism, a big who can get out in transition etc), added a proven shooter, a defensive center, a once top 5 (or top 3) PG with something to prove, a solid veteran wing which together with stability in the front office, growth from Cousins and McLemore and a more balanced roster with a better attitude will all add up to 1 or 2 more wins.

Wow.
 
Full list of over/under for 2015 - 2016.

Warriors 60.5

Spurs 58.5

Thunder 57.5

Cavs and Clippers 56.5

Rockets 54.5

Grizzlies 50.5

Hawks and Bulls 49.5

Pelicans 47.5

Raptors, Wizards and Heat 45.5

Bucks 43.5

Pacers and Celtics 42.5

Jazz 40.5

Mavericks 38.5

Suns 36.5

Pistons 33.5

Magic and Hornets 32.5

Knicks 31.5

Kings 30.5

Lakers 29.5

Nets 28.5

Blazers and Nuggets 26.5

TWolves 25.5

76ers 21.5
 
Capt. Factorial said:
Wow. That has got to be one of the biggest odds miscalculations of the past decade.
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Last year nearly everybody thought the over under of 30 (or 29 I can't remember) was way off. Turns out it was right on the money.

It wouldn't take that much for the season to implode again (Karl v Cousins, Rondo, etc), and as you know the over/under is intended to get equal action on both sides rather than provide an accurate assessment. So I'm not so sure it's a miscalculation.

If it goes up by quite a bit between now and the start of the season, then that means it got lots of action on the over. Then you might consider it a miscalculation.
 
uolj said:
Last year nearly everybody thought the over under of 30 (or 29 I can't remember) was way off. Turns out it was right on the money.

It wouldn't take that much for the season to implode again (Karl v Cousins, Rondo, etc), and as you know the over/under is intended to get equal action on both sides rather than provide an accurate assessment. So I'm not so sure it's a miscalculation.

If it goes up by quite a bit between now and the start of the season, then that means it got lots of action on the over. Then you might consider it a miscalculation.
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Last year I was a Homer optimist. This year I'm a Homer realist and I'm taking on all bets that says we win more than 30.5 games. Just to make it more sporting I might even spot you 10+ games.
 
origkds said:
Last year I was a Homer optimist. This year I'm a Homer realist and I'm taking on all bets that says we win more than 30.5 games. Just to make it more sporting I might even spot you 10+ games.
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Wait, you're saying you think the Kings will only win 20 games?
 
uolj said:
Last year nearly everybody thought the over under of 30 (or 29 I can't remember) was way off. Turns out it was right on the money.
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It was right on the money - following a near perfect storm of disasters:
1) Cousins gets viral meningitis, misses a ton of games, and is never really 100% for the rest of the season
2) The front office inexplicably fires a decent coach, replacing him with a not-decent coach and shocking the team into sleepwalking through the season
3) Karl and Cousins are unable to get on the same page
4) Collison gets hurt and misses a ton of games at the end of the season

And they still basically hit the over/under. Without all the injuries and drama, that was a 40-win team.

Could that kind of disaster happen again? Sure, anything can happen. But I don't think it's likely. Cousins and Karl appear to be on the same page now (and while you could say it's just for show, they darn well didn't put that show on at the end of last year, so they're probably actually OK). Rondo could pout, though given that Karl isn't an offensive micromanager like Carlisle, that seems unlikely. And even if he does, we've got a healthy Collison to replace him. Cauley-Stein shores up our interior defense tremendously, Koufos and Belinelli will be big contributors, Butler may even help out...And we've got Vlade to hold the ship together.

I think you'd have to be ultra-pessimistic to think things will break as badly against the Kings as they did last year. And I think any reasonable assessment of the roster suggests the team is quite a bit better. Macadocious looks to be on the right track to me.

...as you know the over/under is intended to get equal action on both sides rather than provide an accurate assessment. So I'm not so sure it's a miscalculation.

If it goes up by quite a bit between now and the start of the season, then that means it got lots of action on the over. Then you might consider it a miscalculation.
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Fair enough. The oddsmakers set the line to scrape their profit off the top. But the bettors who set the line at 30.5 (if indeed it stays there) are doing a fool's job of figuring out what the Kings have done this offseason.
 
Capt. Factorial said:
It was right on the money - following a near perfect storm of disasters
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At the same time, the team's start was kind of the opposite. Certain things broke well in the being, then the whole thing broke after that. It's not like last year was 100% bad and they still almost hit the over/under.

Capt. Factorial said:
I think you'd have to be ultra-pessimistic to think things will break as badly against the Kings as they did last year. And I think any reasonable assessment of the roster suggests the team is quite a bit better.
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Sure, the roster certainly looks better. But it also looks more combustible. I of course think the Kings have a better than 50% chance of winning more than 30 games, but I don't think the line is absurd.
 
The MVP is almost always the best player on the top seeded team. The reddit list doesn't show last season but of course Curry was the best player on the #1 seeded team.

If you go by numbers, Boogie has already had NBA MVP level seasons. It was a bit of a surprise to see Karl Malone win in the lockout shortened 1999 season when most figured Duncan (top seeded team) or Alonzo Mourning (top seed in the East). Here were their numbers in 1999 vs Boogie last year

Malone 21.7 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 4.1 apg, 0.6 bpg and 25.2 PER
Duncan 21.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.3 bpg and 23.2 PER
Mourning 20.1 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 3.9 bpg and 24.6 PER
Cousins 24.1 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.7 bpg and 25.2 PER

And that was even in about 4 mpg less per game on average. But a guy putting up great stats on a bad team will never get any real consideration for MVP. They struggle to even get consideration for the all-star game in many cases.

The best chance the Kings had to bring home an MVP trophy was in 2002 when the Kings were the #1 seed and CWebb was the best player. Yet he finished 7th in the voting without a single first place vote.

That year also gives you the best case scenario for Cousins going into next year as Jason Kidd's Nets doubled their previous year's win total (from 26 to 52 games) got a first place seed and he put up impressive numbers for a PG (14.7 ppg, 9.9 apg and 7.3 rpg to go along with great defense) but lost out to Duncan whose Spurs were the 2nd seed in the west behind the Kings. Part of that probably had to do with (1) the Spurs being perennial contenders but also (2) Kidd's arrest for spousal abuse.

Obviously Cousins has never had off the court issues, but the perception of him will have to continue to change for him to get a fair shot at things like voting for MVP (if the Kings are ever a high enough seed), all-star games, all-NBA etc.

In short, I think Cousins has a 0.01% chance at MVP this year but if the Kings make the playoffs this year, improve next year then he might be in the conversation.
 
macadocious said:
WCS 40-1 odds on ROY
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The funny part is that I think Cuz for MVP has a better chance. And I just said I thought that one was 0.01%.

Cauley-Stein will not get the heavy minutes that other guys will get and he won't have the kind of offensive numbers required. I haven't looked at the odds but if I had to bet I'd put my money on Okafor. He'll get the burn and he has already shown NBA level post scoring ability. I don't think he's the best player from this class but barring injury I think he'll win ROY
 
Henkel said:
Full list of over/under for 2015 - 2016.

Warriors 60.5

Spurs 58.5

Thunder 57.5

Cavs and Clippers 56.5

Rockets 54.5

Grizzlies 50.5

Hawks and Bulls 49.5

Pelicans 47.5

Raptors, Wizards and Heat 45.5

Bucks 43.5

Pacers and Celtics 42.5

Jazz 40.5

Mavericks 38.5

Suns 36.5

Pistons 33.5

Magic and Hornets 32.5

Knicks 31.5

Kings 30.5

Lakers 29.5

Nets 28.5

Blazers and Nuggets 26.5

TWolves 25.5

76ers 21.5
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Few really nice looking lines here

Magic Over
Kings Over
Mavericks Under
Pacers Over
Bucks Over
Celtics Under
 
The_Jamal said:
Few really nice looking lines here

Magic Over
Kings Over
Mavericks Under
Pacers Over
Bucks Over
Celtics Under
Click to expand...

Would be a fun game to have everybody put fake money on the lines and see who makes the most profit at the end of the year. Like... everybody gets $1000 to spend however they want on over/unders, MVP, champion, and a few other potential bets. We'd agree on a site with the lines and you place your bets based on the lines at that time.

If I had time I'd set that up. Alas... not this month.
 
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