Pound for pound, Miller might be the NBA's best pure passer
- Thread starter Gtronic
- Start date
NumberFour
G-League
Hmm, what's with all this Kings recognition AFTER the all-star break?? 
Oh well I don't want to dig up old wounds. Go Miller/go Kings
Oh well I don't want to dig up old wounds. Go Miller/go Kings
HndsmCelt
Hall of Famer
Would like to see the article as well. I love Brad's passing, maybe not as skilled as Webber or Vlade, but the nice thing with Brad is that he never adds any extra flash and there for rerely throws a bad pass. His boreing little drop off is a thing of beauty BECEAUSE it never gets picked off and never misses.
Bballkingsrock
All-Star
Yeah, I wish i had insider even though most of the stuff is balony.................
I would like to seee the article since I totally agree with that.
I would like to seee the article since I totally agree with that.
iheartBrad
All-Star
i love the phrase 'pound for pound'
i just love to hear it used
but any you who somebody anybody bring on the article cuz you know i would love to read this...and hear exactly why they would say sucha thing
i just love to hear it used
but any you who somebody anybody bring on the article cuz you know i would love to read this...and hear exactly why they would say sucha thing
Gregorius
G-League
I did some free trial for Insider so I have it for like a month. Here's the article:
Who's the best passer in basketball?
That seemingly simple question can generate a multitude of responses. The obvious first guess is the league leader in assists, Steve Nash. But does that distinction really mean he's the game's best passer? After all, Andre Miller led the league in assists three years ago, and nobody was comparing him to John Stockton.
For more evidence that you won't find the answer by looking at the league leaders in assists, check out some of the other names near the top. They include players like Stephon Marbury (third) and Allen Iverson (fifth), both of whom seem to greatly prefer shooting to passing. Then there's Steve Francis (ninth), of whose passing skills the Magic are so enamored that they have moved him off the point.
So there's more to being a great passer than just racking up assists. If a player dominates the ball all game, he should be getting a lot of assists. But that doesn't necessarily make him Magic Johnson.
To properly answer the question, we must consider other players who might have the ball in their hands less often, but are better at finding the open man when they get it. The Barry brothers, for instance, don't handle the rock much, but both Jon and Brent seem to have eyes in the backs of their heads.
Additionally, it's much easier to pick up assists from the backcourt than it is from the frontcourt. Lakers center Vlade Divac, though injured at the moment, would pick up several votes from players if they were asked to name the game's best passer. Yet one wouldn't divine that from his career average of 3.1 assists per game.
Thus, we need a better method for pinpointing the best passers, which entails making two important distinctions. First, we need to evaluate players based on how often they have the ball. For instance, if Doug Christie touches the ball only four times the entire game but assists a basket on three of them, he's done a heck of a job seeing the floor. Second, we need to differentiate players by position. Big people have far fewer chances to initiate the offense than the guards do, and it shows in the big guys' assist numbers.
Let's start with the first item, leveling the playing field for passers based on how many touches they get. Using a tool I call "Assist Ratio," we can measure the percentage of the plays a player makes that result in an assist.
Assist Ratio (Min. 1,000 minutes)
Player Team Ratio
B. Knight Charlotte 42.8
R. Brunson LAC 41.1
S. Nash Phoenix 40.9
C. Duhon Chicago 37.1
M. Palacio Toronto 36.0
To calculate Assist Ratio, begin by figuring out how many possessions that player used. Just sum his assists, turnovers and field goal attempts. Then multiply his free-throw attempts by 0.44 and add that to the sum (as I've mentioned in previous columns, the average free-throw attempt is worth 0.44 field-goal attempts). Finally, divide the player's assists by that total:
Assist Ratio = Assists / (FGA + (FTA * 0.44) + Assists + TO)
But don't put down that calculator just yet.
Those of you who are still awake may have noticed that in trying to even the playing field, we've tilted it too far in favor of players who hardly do anything at all. That is, a player could post an outstanding Assist Ratio even if he wasn't a good passer, simply by never shooting.
If he got only a few dumb-luck assists, like passing to a guy who makes a contested 25-footer with two seconds left on the shot clock, his Assist Ratio would still be great because there'd be no other plays to offset it.
Top Shooting Guards
Player Team Ratio
N. Van Exel Portland 25.0
D. Christie Orlando 24.9
D. Wade Miami 22.5
J. Barry Houston 22.2
D. Anderson Portland 21.3
For an extreme example, consider Washington's Michael Ruffin. He comes as close to "never shooting" as anyone who has ever played the game, with a microscopic average of 3.4 points per 40 minutes. Consequently, Ruffin's Assist Ratio is 26.3, easily the best of any big man in the game. Yet as Wizards supporters can attest, Ruffin handles the ball as if he hears something inside it ticking.
Thus, we need to adjust the formula so inert offensive players like Ruffin don't dominate the leaderboard. To accomplish that, let's start with the denominator in the Assist Ratio formula above: the number of possessions a player uses. The league average in this stat is 21.0 per 40 minutes, which we'll use as a benchmark.
For any player who falls short of 21.0, we'll increase the possessions in the denominator until it meets 21.0 (call it the blackjack rule). If a player is close, as are the vast majority who fall short, this adjustment barely affects the result. But the blackjack rule is much harsher on the Ruffins of the world. In that way, the final result focuses our attention on the truly gifted passers.
Top Small Forwards
Player Team Ratio
L. James Cleveland 22.6
T. McGrady Houston 18.3
J. Jackson Phoenix 16.9
P. Pierce Boston 15.9
T. Prince Detroit 15.7
By this measure, Nash, the league's leading assist man, ranks behind two others, Knight and Brunson, who play smaller roles in their teams' offenses. But the bigger story is that all five are point guards. While each is a superb passer, the fact remains that it's much easier to rack up assists at the point than at the other four spots. The top 29 players in Assist Ratio play the point, and it's unfathomable that the 29 best passers in the game all happen to play the same position.
So let's forget about the point guards for a minute and look at the leaders at other positions. Position-by-position comparisons highlight the game's standout passers:
Nick Van Exel leads the way among shooting guards with a ratio of 25.0, and is followed by Christie's 24.9. Although he's played the majority of his minutes at shooting guard in the Blazers' miniature backcourt, Van Exel is a bit of a ringer since he's a natural point guard. Thus, if the question is, "Who is the best passing off guard in basketball," Christie is my answer.
Top Power Forwards
Player Team Ratio
K. Garnett Minnesota 20.2
C. Webber Philadelphia 17.7
L. Odom LAL 17.5
J. Jeffries Washington 14.5
C. Boozer Utah 13.2
Lebron James' ratio of 22.6, tops among small forwards, proves he warrants his reputation as such a gifted passer. For a wing player, an extremely high percentage of his possessions result in assists. He'll never lead the league unless he starts stealing the ball from Jeff McInnis at midcourt, but that doesn't make his skill at finding the open man any less devastating.
Kevin Garnett (20.2) and Chris Webber (17.7) are both renowned for their skills in seeing the floor from the high post, so there's no surprise they stand first and second among power forwards. Like James at small forward, Garnett has a sizable margin over the competition.
And then there's Brad Miller, who one can argue is the best passer in the game right now. His 20.1 Assist Ratio doesn't seem remarkable until you look at it in the context of what other centers produce. Miller's assist production is nearly twice that of the next closest center, Okur. Moreover, this is a down year for Miller. Last year, his Assist Ratio was 23.4.
Top Center
Player Team Ratio
B. Miller Sacramento 20.1
M. Okur Utah 12.7
M. Blount Boston 12.5
P.J. Brown New Orleans 12.3
M. Camby Denver 12.0
Yes, this has something to do with how the Kings use him as a high-post conduit for the offense, but the next four guys on the list aren't exactly total strangers to the high post either. Thus, while Miller's average of 3.9 assists per game doesn't fly off the page, his skill in getting open shots for teammates is simply a cut above that of the league's other centers.
Of course, one could just as easily make a case for Knight, James or Garnett (who could probably match Miller's totals if he played center) as the game's premier passer. That's because the vast differences between positions make it very difficult to compare players who play different spots on the floor. As a result, Assist Ratio alone can't settle this debate.
Nonetheless, it's a very useful tool for identifying the top performers at each of the five positions. Based on Assist Ratio, it's abundantly clear that if the NBA voted an "All-Passing team" at year-end, Brevin Knight, Doug Christie, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Brad Miller should be the five names on writers' ballots.
As to which of those five is the best … I think I'll pass.
John Hollinger is the author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05." He has joined ESPN Insider as a regular contributor.
Who's the best passer in basketball?
That seemingly simple question can generate a multitude of responses. The obvious first guess is the league leader in assists, Steve Nash. But does that distinction really mean he's the game's best passer? After all, Andre Miller led the league in assists three years ago, and nobody was comparing him to John Stockton.
For more evidence that you won't find the answer by looking at the league leaders in assists, check out some of the other names near the top. They include players like Stephon Marbury (third) and Allen Iverson (fifth), both of whom seem to greatly prefer shooting to passing. Then there's Steve Francis (ninth), of whose passing skills the Magic are so enamored that they have moved him off the point.
So there's more to being a great passer than just racking up assists. If a player dominates the ball all game, he should be getting a lot of assists. But that doesn't necessarily make him Magic Johnson.
To properly answer the question, we must consider other players who might have the ball in their hands less often, but are better at finding the open man when they get it. The Barry brothers, for instance, don't handle the rock much, but both Jon and Brent seem to have eyes in the backs of their heads.
Additionally, it's much easier to pick up assists from the backcourt than it is from the frontcourt. Lakers center Vlade Divac, though injured at the moment, would pick up several votes from players if they were asked to name the game's best passer. Yet one wouldn't divine that from his career average of 3.1 assists per game.
Thus, we need a better method for pinpointing the best passers, which entails making two important distinctions. First, we need to evaluate players based on how often they have the ball. For instance, if Doug Christie touches the ball only four times the entire game but assists a basket on three of them, he's done a heck of a job seeing the floor. Second, we need to differentiate players by position. Big people have far fewer chances to initiate the offense than the guards do, and it shows in the big guys' assist numbers.
Let's start with the first item, leveling the playing field for passers based on how many touches they get. Using a tool I call "Assist Ratio," we can measure the percentage of the plays a player makes that result in an assist.
Assist Ratio (Min. 1,000 minutes)
Player Team Ratio
B. Knight Charlotte 42.8
R. Brunson LAC 41.1
S. Nash Phoenix 40.9
C. Duhon Chicago 37.1
M. Palacio Toronto 36.0
To calculate Assist Ratio, begin by figuring out how many possessions that player used. Just sum his assists, turnovers and field goal attempts. Then multiply his free-throw attempts by 0.44 and add that to the sum (as I've mentioned in previous columns, the average free-throw attempt is worth 0.44 field-goal attempts). Finally, divide the player's assists by that total:
Assist Ratio = Assists / (FGA + (FTA * 0.44) + Assists + TO)
But don't put down that calculator just yet.
Those of you who are still awake may have noticed that in trying to even the playing field, we've tilted it too far in favor of players who hardly do anything at all. That is, a player could post an outstanding Assist Ratio even if he wasn't a good passer, simply by never shooting.
If he got only a few dumb-luck assists, like passing to a guy who makes a contested 25-footer with two seconds left on the shot clock, his Assist Ratio would still be great because there'd be no other plays to offset it.
Top Shooting Guards
Player Team Ratio
N. Van Exel Portland 25.0
D. Christie Orlando 24.9
D. Wade Miami 22.5
J. Barry Houston 22.2
D. Anderson Portland 21.3
For an extreme example, consider Washington's Michael Ruffin. He comes as close to "never shooting" as anyone who has ever played the game, with a microscopic average of 3.4 points per 40 minutes. Consequently, Ruffin's Assist Ratio is 26.3, easily the best of any big man in the game. Yet as Wizards supporters can attest, Ruffin handles the ball as if he hears something inside it ticking.
Thus, we need to adjust the formula so inert offensive players like Ruffin don't dominate the leaderboard. To accomplish that, let's start with the denominator in the Assist Ratio formula above: the number of possessions a player uses. The league average in this stat is 21.0 per 40 minutes, which we'll use as a benchmark.
For any player who falls short of 21.0, we'll increase the possessions in the denominator until it meets 21.0 (call it the blackjack rule). If a player is close, as are the vast majority who fall short, this adjustment barely affects the result. But the blackjack rule is much harsher on the Ruffins of the world. In that way, the final result focuses our attention on the truly gifted passers.
Top Small Forwards
Player Team Ratio
L. James Cleveland 22.6
T. McGrady Houston 18.3
J. Jackson Phoenix 16.9
P. Pierce Boston 15.9
T. Prince Detroit 15.7
By this measure, Nash, the league's leading assist man, ranks behind two others, Knight and Brunson, who play smaller roles in their teams' offenses. But the bigger story is that all five are point guards. While each is a superb passer, the fact remains that it's much easier to rack up assists at the point than at the other four spots. The top 29 players in Assist Ratio play the point, and it's unfathomable that the 29 best passers in the game all happen to play the same position.
So let's forget about the point guards for a minute and look at the leaders at other positions. Position-by-position comparisons highlight the game's standout passers:
Nick Van Exel leads the way among shooting guards with a ratio of 25.0, and is followed by Christie's 24.9. Although he's played the majority of his minutes at shooting guard in the Blazers' miniature backcourt, Van Exel is a bit of a ringer since he's a natural point guard. Thus, if the question is, "Who is the best passing off guard in basketball," Christie is my answer.
Top Power Forwards
Player Team Ratio
K. Garnett Minnesota 20.2
C. Webber Philadelphia 17.7
L. Odom LAL 17.5
J. Jeffries Washington 14.5
C. Boozer Utah 13.2
Lebron James' ratio of 22.6, tops among small forwards, proves he warrants his reputation as such a gifted passer. For a wing player, an extremely high percentage of his possessions result in assists. He'll never lead the league unless he starts stealing the ball from Jeff McInnis at midcourt, but that doesn't make his skill at finding the open man any less devastating.
Kevin Garnett (20.2) and Chris Webber (17.7) are both renowned for their skills in seeing the floor from the high post, so there's no surprise they stand first and second among power forwards. Like James at small forward, Garnett has a sizable margin over the competition.
And then there's Brad Miller, who one can argue is the best passer in the game right now. His 20.1 Assist Ratio doesn't seem remarkable until you look at it in the context of what other centers produce. Miller's assist production is nearly twice that of the next closest center, Okur. Moreover, this is a down year for Miller. Last year, his Assist Ratio was 23.4.
Top Center
Player Team Ratio
B. Miller Sacramento 20.1
M. Okur Utah 12.7
M. Blount Boston 12.5
P.J. Brown New Orleans 12.3
M. Camby Denver 12.0
Yes, this has something to do with how the Kings use him as a high-post conduit for the offense, but the next four guys on the list aren't exactly total strangers to the high post either. Thus, while Miller's average of 3.9 assists per game doesn't fly off the page, his skill in getting open shots for teammates is simply a cut above that of the league's other centers.
Of course, one could just as easily make a case for Knight, James or Garnett (who could probably match Miller's totals if he played center) as the game's premier passer. That's because the vast differences between positions make it very difficult to compare players who play different spots on the floor. As a result, Assist Ratio alone can't settle this debate.
Nonetheless, it's a very useful tool for identifying the top performers at each of the five positions. Based on Assist Ratio, it's abundantly clear that if the NBA voted an "All-Passing team" at year-end, Brevin Knight, Doug Christie, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Brad Miller should be the five names on writers' ballots.
As to which of those five is the best … I think I'll pass.
John Hollinger is the author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2004-05." He has joined ESPN Insider as a regular contributor.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
AHEM -- didn;t I do somethng similar only a couple of months ago showing that at the time the Kings had the #1 passing OG, the #1 passing center, and the #2 passing PF in the game? 
THIEF!!! 
Brad is the best at C, but even so still a tick or two behind Webb or Vlade in ability to really control the game with his passing.
And as we move along now, that is really the thing that has changed and we may never really get back -- the Vlade/Webb/Christie combo was an absolutely remarkable passing trio, and that's before we even got to our PG, who's pretty good himself. But 10 years from now, what people are going to remember about this Kings era is the passing -- that was what we did so very very well. I've seen few better passing teams ever than the Kings of these last few years (old Celts maybe).
THIEF!!! Brad is the best at C, but even so still a tick or two behind Webb or Vlade in ability to really control the game with his passing.
And as we move along now, that is really the thing that has changed and we may never really get back -- the Vlade/Webb/Christie combo was an absolutely remarkable passing trio, and that's before we even got to our PG, who's pretty good himself. But 10 years from now, what people are going to remember about this Kings era is the passing -- that was what we did so very very well. I've seen few better passing teams ever than the Kings of these last few years (old Celts maybe).
iheartBrad
All-Star
thx Gregorius
bigbadred00
Starter
compared to his center peers he's the best, that's the point.
A
AriesMar27
Guest
i dont know if nash is the best passer.... he really doesnt have a choice on hius team.... would he average as many assists on the kings? hell no.... when marbury was on the team he got tons of assists too.... same with brevin knight.... what would he be on any other team? a scrub, thats why he plays for the bobcats.
4cwebb
Starter
Something I think that is worth recognizing is the Sacramento system. What were Brad's assist numbers prior to joining the Kings? 2 or 3 per game at most. It will be interesting to see what happens to CWebb's assists numbers in Philly once he gets adjusted...right now they are definitely down.
I guess my point is that there are probably other centers in the NBA that could be plugged into the Sacramento system and have their assist numbers skyrocket, so to speak. I'm not saying it's every other starting center in the NBA, but my guess would be that there are a few out there. Same can be said for DC and CWebb, imho (just to clarify that I'm not hating on Brad, but recognizing that the Kings run a unique offensive system that allows certain positions to handle the ball much more than other systems *if* those players can prove that they can be productive doing so).
I guess my point is that there are probably other centers in the NBA that could be plugged into the Sacramento system and have their assist numbers skyrocket, so to speak. I'm not saying it's every other starting center in the NBA, but my guess would be that there are a few out there. Same can be said for DC and CWebb, imho (just to clarify that I'm not hating on Brad, but recognizing that the Kings run a unique offensive system that allows certain positions to handle the ball much more than other systems *if* those players can prove that they can be productive doing so).
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
4cwebb said:
No, Brad was clearly an excellent passer before he got here -- that's WHY we got him. Our system did make use of that trait, but it didn't make him a passer where he wasn't before. Whole reason people on this board talked about him before the trade was because he hasd a facing jumper and nice passing ability.
Webb's assists are obviously down, and could remain so if Philly does nto adjust and get the ball the hell out of Iverson's hands for at least a few minute agame. But Webb is also one of the best passing big men in history, and people know that. He has done it in whatever system he's been in, in multiple cities, for multiple coaches. He has the status and stature that there will be at least an attempt to alter the offense to take advantage of his well known abilities as opposed to a guy like Brad, who pretty much is just asked to fit into whatever system he comes into.
Gargamel
Starter
AriesMar27 said:
I think of "good passer" as someone who makes good passes, simple as that. Magic, Stockton, Isiah, Pistol, Bird, etc. Just so happens that good passers like that often have nice assist averages...because their passes often connect with players in good scoring positions.
Good passing includes the completion of the pass itself, but also timing, spacial recognition, and inspiration to make the right pass at the right time. EG: Magic could throw any pass thru any space at any time, and he usually did. That's why he's recognized by many as the greatest passer ever. For taller guys, Webb's a good passer, Pippen was good, Vlade, K. Malone, and yes, Brad Miller. You generally know a good passer when you see one, but I don't think you need to bust out statistics to recognize who's better than who. I've seen Webber make a lot more difficult and astute passes than Miller so I'm going with him.
4cwebb
Starter
Bricklayer said:
I guess I wasn't clear. I didn't say Brad isn't a good passer. I said that the Sacramento system allowed him to showcase his passing abilities, and that there are probably other players like Brad who are stuck in systems that do not allow them to showcase their abilities.
Agree about CWebb as well, of course.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Poll
- Locked
- Poll
