Point Guards: A comparison of their first two years:

bajaden

bajaden

Hall of Famer
There has been a lot of debate lately on whether Evans is a point guard or not. At least in the strict sense of a pass first point guard. I would like to add a note, that when I was a kid, longer ago than I want to admit, there were just guards and forwards. They were for the most part somewhat interchangable. So this idea of a pass first point guard, or of a point guard period, is just a result of a more modern definition, or evolution, if you will, of the game.

I've listed mostly point guards, and their stats for the first two years of their careers. The one exception being Rose who has only played one year. I've also included a few other players that aren't considered point guards, but who are prominate handlers of the ball. I've tried to include only players that we, in other circumstances would certainly like to have on our team. Players that are highly regarded around the league. And current.

Kobe: Age: 18
1st year: 71 games, 15.5 MPG, 7.6 PPG, .417 FGP, 1.9 RPG, 1.3 APG
2nd year: 79 games, 26 MPG, 15.4 PPG, .428 FGP, 3.1 RPG, 2.5 APG
Wade: Age: 22
1st year: 61 games, 34.9 MPG, 16.2 PPG, .465 FGP, 4.0 RPG, 4.5 APG
2nd year: 77 games, 38.6 MPG, 24.1 PPG, .478 FGP, 5.2 RPG, 6.8 APG
James:Age: 19
1st year: 79 games, 39.5 MPG, 20.9 PPG, .417 FGP, 5.5 RPG, 5.9 APG
2nd year: 80 games, 42.4 MPG, 27.2 PPG, .472 FGP, 7.4 RPG, 7.2 APG
Roy: Age: 22
1st year: 57 games, 35.4 MPG, 16.8 PPG, .456 FGP, 4.4 RPG, 4.0 APG
2nd year: 74 games, 37.4 MPG, 19.1 PPG, .454 FGP, 4.7 RPG, 5.8 APG
Rondo: Age: 20
1st year: 78 games, 23.4 MPG, 6.4 PPG, .418 FGP, 3.7 RPG, 3.8 APG
2nd year: 77 games, 30.0 MPG, 10.6 PPG, .492 FGP, 4.2 RPG, 5.1 APG
Paul: Age:20
1st year: 78 games, 36.0 MPG, 16.1 PPG, .430 FGP, 5.1 RPG, 7.8 APG
2nd year: 65 games, 36.3 MPG, 17.0 PPG, .437 FGP, 4.3 RPG, 8.8 APG
Harris: Age: 21
1st year: 76 games, 15.4 MPG, 5.7 PPG, .429 FGP, 1.3 RPG, 2.2 APG
2nd year: 56 games, 22.7 MPG, 9.9 PPG, .469 FGP, 2.2 RPG, 3.2 APG
Williams: Age: 21
1st year: 80 games, 28.9 MPG, 10.8 PPG, .421 FGP, 2.4 RPG, 4.5 APG
2nd year: 80 games, 36.9 MPG, 16.2 PPG, .456 FGP, 3.4 RPG, 9.3 APG
Rose: Age: 20
1st year: 81 games, 37.0 MPG, 16.8 PPG, .475 FGP, 3.9 RPG, 6.3 APG
Billups: Age: 21
1st year: 80 games, 27.7 MPG, 11.2 PPG, .374 FGP, 2.4 RPG, 3.9 APG
2nd year: 45 games, 33.1 MPG, 13.9 PPG, .386 FGP, 2.1 RPG, 3.8 APG
Nash: Age: 22
1st year: 65 games, 10.5 MPG, 3.3 PPG, .423 FGP, 1.0 RPG, 2.1 APG
2nd year: 76 games, 21.9 MPG, 9.1 PPG, .459 FGP, 2.1 RPG, 3.4 APG
A. Miller: Age: 23
1st year: 82 games, 25.5 MPG, 11.1 PPG, .449 FGP, 3.4 RPG, 5.8 APG
2nd year: 82 games, 34.7 MPG, 15.8 PPG, .452 FGP, 4.4 RPG, 8.0 APG
Bibby: Age: 20
1st year: 50 games, 35.2 MPG, 13.2 PPG, .430 FGP, 2.7 RPG, 6.5 APG
2nd year: 82 games, 38.5 MPG, 14.5 PPG, .445 FGP, 3.7 RPG, 8.1 APG
Kidd: Age: 21
1st year: 79 games, 33.8 MPG, 11.7 PPG, .385 FGP, 5.4 RPG, 7.7 APG
2nd year: 81 games, 37.5 MPG, 16.6 PPG, .381 FGP, 6.8 RPG, 9.7 APG

I know this is a long list, but I wanted to be sure that I had a good slice of all the best point guards out there. Take note of the age of each player when coming into the league, and remember that Evans is 19. Of course we have nothing from Evans to compare now. But in two years it will be interesting to see how he stacks up to these players. Also note that most of the higher draft picks started from day one, or if they wern't a top five pick and started, they were on a very young team.

Also note that a few players that are considered stars or superstars today, wern't exactly earth shattering in their first year, and in some cases their first two years. This is where patience is required with a young player. Its painfull sometimes, but the reward can be great.
 
Also note that a few players that are considered stars or superstars today, wern't exactly earth shattering in their first year, and in some cases their first two years. This is where patience is required with a young player. Its painfull sometimes, but the reward can be great.
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Nash wasn't a starter until his fifth year in NBA, the third in Dallas. The 5th ****ing year! Maybe it's THE exception, but...yes, patience should be obligatory.
 
I expect first year #'s similar to Wade/Roy/Rose. Highly do-able, if I were picking in fantasy there is no way I would let Evans slip past the 6th round.
 
Kingsgurl881 said:
I expect first year #'s similar to Wade/Roy/Rose. Highly do-able, if I were picking in fantasy there is no way I would let Evans slip past the 6th round.
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We have several good fantasy leagues here. Watch in the Fantasy and Games forum for signups, as we may only have a couple of open slots on each league.
 
VF21 said:
We have several good fantasy leagues here. Watch in the Fantasy and Games forum for signups, as we may only have a couple of open slots on each league.
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But I just gave up my strategy!

I picked Devin Harris in the 6th round last year, my buddy picked Mike Miller in the same round. He clowned me for my Devin Harris pick, said Harris was garbage.

The year before I got Danny Granger in the 6th round. The 6th round is the sleeper round, and that is exactly where Evans is going to be picked, by me, this year.
 
This is an addition to my orginal post. I've made a list of the same players and how many field goal attempts each player took in his first two years, and how many he took in the past year. It might give some people a different prospective on whose actually a shoot first point and whose not.

Kobe: 1st year: 5.9 FGA, 2nd year: 11.5 FGA, Last season: 20.8 FGA

Wade: 1st year: 13.0 FGA, 2nd year: 17.1 FGA, Last season: 22.0 FGA

James: 1st year: 18.8 FGA, 2nd year: 21.0 FGA, Last season: 19.9 FGA

Roy: 1st year: 15.3 FGA, 2nd year: 15.7 FGA, Last season: 16.8 FGA

Rondo: 1st year: 5.7 FGA, 2nd year: 9.2 FGA, Last season: 9.4 FGA

Paul: 1st year: 12.1 FGA, 2nd year: 13.4 FGA, Last season: 16.0 FGA

Harris: 1st year: 4.8 FGA, 2nd year: 7.2 FGA, Last season: 15.0 FGA

Williams: 1st year: 10.0 FGA, 2nd year: 13.5 FGA, Last season: 14.4 FGA

Rose: 1st year: 14.9 FGA

Billups: 1st year: 9.3 FGA, 2nd year: 11.0 FGA, Last season: 12.4 FGA

Nash: 1st year: 2.6 FGA, 2nd year: 7.6 FGA, Last season: 11.5 FGA

Miller: 1st year: 9.4 FGA, 2nd year: 12.1 FGA, Last season: 12.6 FGA

Bibby: 1st year: 12.1 FGA, 2nd year: 12.5 FGA, Last season: 12.7 FGA

Kidd: 1st year: 10.8 FGA, 2nd year: 15.9 FGA, Last season: 7.6 FGA

You'll notice that Paul, Williams, and Harris all rank up there in shots taken. Also remember that the FGA stat is inaccurate because it doesn't take into account how many times each player went to the free throw line. I could have taken that into account by creating one shot for every two free throws, but I wanted to stay with the actual stats.

For prespective, remember that Martin is constantly lauded for being a very effecient scorer because he scores 20 plus points on 12 or 13 shots taken. But if he goes to the line and shoots 12 freethrows in a game, he actually took six more shots. They simply wern't counted because of being fouled. So a player like Paul, who averaged 16 shots a game last year, and goes to the line with regularity, probably averages 20 to 22 shots a game. Is that considered a pass first point guard.

Don't get me wrong. I love Paul, and I would love to have him on my team. He does bring untangibles that don't show up on paper. All I'm saying is he has the ball in his hands a lot and he takes a lot of shots, and yet he is perceived as a pass first point guard. Just something to think about.
 
this is a good thread idea but maybe you should separate them by minutes played per game as well because kobe and nash really didnt get minutes until much later on in their careers. evans will be starting right off the bat.

the first 4 players listed arent even pg's though james and wade were pgs their 1st year. kobe was never a pg... i wonder what the first 2 years looked like for some of the combo guards in the nba.

oh, and how come ben gordon or baron davis werent on the list? they could be some of those prime examples of what we might have to expect from evans.
 
Baja, that's why you have look at ratios to determine true PG ability. It's true CP3 is ball dominant and may look to take more shots than the average PG, but it's hard to blame him when his TS is 60%, an excellent mark for a PG who doesn't rely on a three pt shot as a major method to his offense, and who also constantly gets double/triple teamed because he's basically on a two-man team. Assists/possession (field goal attempts + free throw attempts + assists + turnovers) is probably the best ratio to chart true PG ability, and Paul's very good--he's about 7th in this metric among all PGs, and those who are more unselfish/better passers than him all have a worse turnover ratio. Taking those two factors into account, I'd say he's one of the top 3 purest points in the league.

To answer the original question, I'm still skeptical about whether Reke's a PG--he probably would be better served acting as a combo guard anyway, because he'll fit right in. He was far more ball dominant than CP3 was in college, but often just looked to score for himself--I've said that his assist/possession rate was on par with pure SGs. It was the same thing in summer league too--huge free throw rate, many shot attempts, many turnovers and just a few spatterings of assists. His turnover ratio was pretty big in college, and he shown nothing to dispel that in summer league (5.3 tpg). So between the turnover obstacles and his desire to look for his own shot, I don't see great hope, which might not be that bad since we're getting a two-way player who can really impose his athleticism on both ends of the court. I do think our staff can help him ease off some of those bad habits and play a more disciplined game, but whether that comes with unleashing whatever unselfishness/court vision he has is doubtful.
 
It's a great post, and great data. I'd like to see Tony Parker on that list. He didn't exactly blow people's socks off in his first few years. In any case, your point is well taken. So many people are acting as if Evans is a finished product and that what you see now is what you will get in the future. That's far, far, faaaar, from the truth. He's going to be a work in progress, and it's probably going to take at least three years before we really know what kind of player he is going to be.
 
NME said:
TO's would also be instructive. Not to be a pest. ;)
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Wade 3 and 4 TO in his first 2 years and averages 4 for his career
Williams 2 and 3 and 3 for career
Rose 2.5
Lebron 3.5 and 3 over 3 for career
Paul 2.5 both years
Bibby 3 both years
Billups 2 both years
Marbury not on the list but 3 both years.

no sense in putting all of them you get the point. I guess for Tyrekes first year we should expect 2 to 5 TO's a game. More than 5 could be a concern and he will need alot of work in that aspect. 5 and less I will not have a problem with.
 
BTW I know the Memphis guy said TO was a problem for Evans. He averaged 3.6 turnovers. Thats not a big problem for me. not for a guy that had the ball 90% of the time for that team.
 
AriesMar27 said:
this is a good thread idea but maybe you should separate them by minutes played per game as well because kobe and nash really didnt get minutes until much later on in their careers. evans will be starting right off the bat.

the first 4 players listed arent even pg's though james and wade were pgs their 1st year. kobe was never a pg... i wonder what the first 2 years looked like for some of the combo guards in the nba.

oh, and how come ben gordon or baron davis werent on the list? they could be some of those prime examples of what we might have to expect from evans.
Click to expand...

As I explained in my post, I included Kobe etc simply because they handle the ball a lot, and since Evans has been compared to a combo guard thats why I included Wade, Roy, and even James. As for those I didn't include. Well, its impossible to include everyone, and I wanted at least to have some of the more prominent points guards on the list. As you know, its impossible to please everybody.
 
Entity said:
no sense in putting all of them you get the point. I guess for Tyrekes first year we should expect 2 to 5 TO's a game. More than 5 could be a concern and he will need alot of work in that aspect. 5 and less I will not have a problem with.
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I can't remember anyone averaging 5 TO's ever, so that would be an awful lot, but there are a bunch of very good names that are often in the 4 TO range.
 
bajaden said:
As I explained in my post, I included Kobe etc simply because they handle the ball a lot, and since Evans has been compared to a combo guard thats why I included Wade, Roy, and even James. As for those I didn't include. Well, its impossible to include everyone, and I wanted at least to have some of the more prominent points guards on the list. As you know, its impossible to please everybody.
Click to expand...

true, but we already know that evans isnt going to be a true pg... so why list so many? but now im just nitpicking....
 
NME said:
I can't remember anyone averaging 5 TO's ever, so that would be an awful lot, but there are a bunch of very good names that are often in the 4 TO range.
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Yeah I think of wade with 4 for his career. Would you be at all upset if Evans had the same game as Wade +1 TO? :) not me. And I believe thats a worse case scenrio.
 
Well ask and you shall recieve...

Assist/TO: First year Second year Last year

Kobe: 1.3/1.5 2.5/1/9 4.9/2.5

Wade: 4.5/3.2 6.8/4.1 7.5/3.4

James: 5.5/3.4 7.2/3.2 7.2/2.9

Roy: 4.0/2.0 5.8/1.8 5.1/1.9

Rondo: 3.8/1.7 5.1/1.9 8.2/2.6

Paul: 7.8/2.3 8.8/2.4 11.0/2.9

Harris: 2.2/1.0 3.2/1.5 6.9/3.0

Williams: 4.5/1.8 9.3/3.0 10.7/3.3

Rose: 6.3/2.4

Billups: 3.9/2.1 3.8/2.1 6.4/2.2

Nash: 2.1/1.0 3.4/1.2 9.7/3.3

Miller: 5.8/2.0 8.0/3.2 6.5/2.4

Bibby: 6.5/2.9 8.1/3.0 5.0/1.6

Kidd: 7.7/3.1 9.7/4.0 8.7/2.2

I think its important to bear in mind that these are some of the best in the game. So if were holding Evans up to these guys, and we probably should be, its a pretty high standard. I agree that he has to keep his TO's under five per game. Four would be better. He's young and has time to learn the game. For our sake, the sooner he grows into whatever he's going to become, the better for us.

As a side note. After studying all the stats I found it interesting that Andre Miller has been one of the most consistant Pt guards in the league from the get go. He's also been one of the most durable. He's one of those guys that doesn't get much press, but gets the job done.
 
AriesMar27 said:
true, but we already know that evans isnt going to be a true pg... so why list so many? but now im just nitpicking....
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WHO GIVES A SH**? Seriously, you have harped on and on again that Evans is not a true pg, we get that. We all know he isn't, so GIVE IT UP!!! Evans is a winner, and I want a winner to lead my squad, be he a true C, SF, PF, PG, SG I WANT A WINNER! I can give a crap what position you play, if you bring me W's thats all that matters.

Look, I'm not trying to personally attack anybody. But one thing we all get : EVANS IS NOT A TRUE PG. Can he be made into a solid pg, more than likely. Will he be a spectacular player, probably. Will you remind us that he is not a true pg when he leads us back to the playoffs, I doubt it.

At this point, you are just hoping for him to fail. I don't get that. I never will. Why do you want to see him fail? What do you have against that guy that makes you so down on him? Look, if it makes you feel better I have two coupons for free tacos from Rubio's, maybe that will perk you up going to hang out at Rubio's joint. Geez.
 
AriesMar27 said:
i know... andy roddicks brother was nosepicking and eating at wimbledon when roddick lost to federer this year....
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He couldn't save that for any other time of the day where there wasn't liable to be a national TV camera on him? :eek:
 
I know I save mine for late at night when everyone is.........er so how bout them Kings. yeah baby.
 
Kingsgurl881 said:
WHO GIVES A SH**? Seriously, you have harped on and on again that Evans is not a true pg, we get that. We all know he isn't, so GIVE IT UP!!! Evans is a winner, and I want a winner to lead my squad, be he a true C, SF, PF, PG, SG I WANT A WINNER! I can give a crap what position you play, if you bring me W's thats all that matters.

Look, I'm not trying to personally attack anybody. But one thing we all get : EVANS IS NOT A TRUE PG. Can he be made into a solid pg, more than likely. Will he be a spectacular player, probably. Will you remind us that he is not a true pg when he leads us back to the playoffs, I doubt it.

At this point, you are just hoping for him to fail. I don't get that. I never will. Why do you want to see him fail? What do you have against that guy that makes you so down on him? Look, if it makes you feel better I have two coupons for free tacos from Rubio's, maybe that will perk you up going to hang out at Rubio's joint. Geez.
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no means no.... leave me alone, stop following me. just kidding....

but seriously, where in any of my posts in this thread did i say anything negative about evans to deserve this kind of response from you? talk about being off topic. i dont think i even really talked about evans in this entire thread outside of asking bajaden why he didnt include more combo guards... the last 3 posts have been about nosepicking. chill out.
 
AriesMar27 said:
no means no.... leave me alone, stop following me. just kidding....

but seriously, where in any of my posts in this thread did i say anything negative about evans to deserve this kind of response from you? talk about being off topic. i dont think i even really talked about evans in this entire thread outside of asking bajaden why he didnt include more combo guards... the last 3 posts have been about nosepicking. chill out.
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All the posts that I have seen from you are negative. This is my last one to you, so I hope this puts it into more perspective:

Gilbert Arenas avg'd 28 ppg and 7 dimes in his last (almost) full season. But one Wizards fan suggested they trade him, because he wasn't a "true, pass first" pg.

Make sense yet?
 
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