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Player Spotlight: Chris Webber
by Court E. Mann - Associate Editor, Fanball.com
Wednesday, October 6, 2004
One look at Chris Webber's career statistics and the conundrum facing fantasy owners on draft day is abundantly clear.
At some point in his 11-year career, the former first overall pick in the NBA draft has averaged 27 points, 13 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals, and 2.2 blocks in a season. He is without question one of the very few players uniquely capable of contributing significantly in each of the five major fantasy categories.
However, on that same page, you will notice that he's played in 54, 67, and 23 games in his last three seasons. His deflated totals from last season (18.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks) resemble an NBA player living on borrowed time. Even an Atlanta Hawks' scout could see that he was nowhere near healthy while attempting to play on an obviously gimpy knee for 23 uninspiring games last year.
Now that Webber has had an entire offseason of rest and recovery, the contrast above makes the former Fab Fiver one of the biggest dilemmas on draft day. Depending on whom you ask, Webber can be construed as a first-round gamble, a second-round question mark, or a third-round bargain. There's no question that he has the ability to produce first-round numbers, but he could also leaving a gaping hole the size of Stanley Roberts in your lineup.
In determining the approach to C-Webb on draft day, let's first check in on the status of his knee. Three days into training camp, the power forward claims to be playing without pain for the first time in years.
"I played last [season] in excruciating pain," Webber told the Sacramento Bee. "It really hurt to get into a defensive stance and to try to rebound. Making moves, anything was painful. Now, it's all good. There is no pain whatsoever."
Last season, the player we saw on the floor for the Kings was Webber in name, but certainly not in game. He lacked all of his trademark explosiveness, had no elevation on a formerly consistent jump shot, couldn't raise himself off the hardwood to dunk, rebound, or block shots, and certainly couldn't run the floor. But teammates have been impressed with what they've seen from this year's version.
"Webb looks good," point guard Mike Bibby said. "He's moving a lot better. His shot is falling. I think everything is in place."
"He looks good, real good, shooting, running the floor, and moving a little bit better," guard Bobby Jackson added.
If indeed Webber's mobility and explosiveness is back, there's no reason he can't improve upon last year's disappointing cameo to finish the season. In fact, a return to his 2002 totals (23 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks) is certainly within reach—not only because of his health, but because the Kings will need his versatility and pick-and-roll ability with center Vlade Divac taking his act back to Los Angeles.
Of course, while Webber's current health report is certainly good news, it unfortunately doesn't reassure us that there will not be a reoccurrence or another injury. Fantasy owners should know that this is not his first knee injury nor is it the first time he's missed a significant chunk of the season. He played in only 54 games in 1994, 15 games in 1995, and 42 games in 1998—when needless to say, he was a much younger man. Thus, even if he hadn't missed most of last season, he would still be one of the league's biggest injury risks (along with players like Baron Davis and Vince Carter).
Clearly, we will be keeping a very close eye on Webber during training camp and the preseason to see how his knee responds to two-a-day practices, scrimmages, and exhibition games. That said, it is very likely that the Kings will limit that workload in order to ensure that such a valuable weapon is healthy for as long as possible.
So where does that leave us on draft day?
First off, we should note that we're more apt to gamble on C-Webb in three- and five-category fantasy leagues than in larger-category formats in which his plummeting free-throw percentage (61 percent in 2002) and relatively low field-goal percentage (46 percent in 2002, 41 percent in 2003) are added. In three- and five-cat leagues, however, few forwards can come anywhere close to his assist and steal totals.
Generally speaking, in a 10-team league, we can't possibly justify spending a second-round pick on a player with as much risk as Webber. The alternatives in the top 20 overall are not only safe and secure, but in several cases (i.e. LeBron James, Amare Stoudemire, Gilbert Arenas), they also have significant upside.
We also have a difficult time rationalizing Webber over certain third-round picks such as Richard Jefferson, Brad Miller, Kenyon Martin, and Pau Gasol. While these players may not have as much versatility as Webber in his prime and in good health, the potential for Webber missing half the season is so great that a slight dropoff in production is easy to swallow.
Moving slightly further down our cheat sheet, we begin to seriously consider jumping on Webber when players with their own question marks present themselves. Vince Carter has plenty of injury issues of his own, along with a pleasant little dispute with management. Zach Randolph has legal issues, an attitude problem, and persistent trade rumors following him around. Ben Wallace, for all of his rebounding and defensive prowess, can barely average half Webber's scoring output.
Thus, after taking a very close look at Webber's status, it appears that he lands in the late third round in 10-team leagues, depending on your needs. Of course, those who have been burned by injury risks in the past know that avoiding these players at all costs is an option worth committing to as well. With training camp and the preseason schedule in front of us before draft day arrives, we'll of course be monitoring the health and production of spotlight players like Webber, and we urge you to stay tuned for updates and cheat sheet adjustments.
Player Spotlight: Chris Webber
by Court E. Mann - Associate Editor, Fanball.com
Wednesday, October 6, 2004
One look at Chris Webber's career statistics and the conundrum facing fantasy owners on draft day is abundantly clear.
At some point in his 11-year career, the former first overall pick in the NBA draft has averaged 27 points, 13 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals, and 2.2 blocks in a season. He is without question one of the very few players uniquely capable of contributing significantly in each of the five major fantasy categories.
However, on that same page, you will notice that he's played in 54, 67, and 23 games in his last three seasons. His deflated totals from last season (18.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks) resemble an NBA player living on borrowed time. Even an Atlanta Hawks' scout could see that he was nowhere near healthy while attempting to play on an obviously gimpy knee for 23 uninspiring games last year.
Now that Webber has had an entire offseason of rest and recovery, the contrast above makes the former Fab Fiver one of the biggest dilemmas on draft day. Depending on whom you ask, Webber can be construed as a first-round gamble, a second-round question mark, or a third-round bargain. There's no question that he has the ability to produce first-round numbers, but he could also leaving a gaping hole the size of Stanley Roberts in your lineup.
In determining the approach to C-Webb on draft day, let's first check in on the status of his knee. Three days into training camp, the power forward claims to be playing without pain for the first time in years.
"I played last [season] in excruciating pain," Webber told the Sacramento Bee. "It really hurt to get into a defensive stance and to try to rebound. Making moves, anything was painful. Now, it's all good. There is no pain whatsoever."
Last season, the player we saw on the floor for the Kings was Webber in name, but certainly not in game. He lacked all of his trademark explosiveness, had no elevation on a formerly consistent jump shot, couldn't raise himself off the hardwood to dunk, rebound, or block shots, and certainly couldn't run the floor. But teammates have been impressed with what they've seen from this year's version.
"Webb looks good," point guard Mike Bibby said. "He's moving a lot better. His shot is falling. I think everything is in place."
"He looks good, real good, shooting, running the floor, and moving a little bit better," guard Bobby Jackson added.
If indeed Webber's mobility and explosiveness is back, there's no reason he can't improve upon last year's disappointing cameo to finish the season. In fact, a return to his 2002 totals (23 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks) is certainly within reach—not only because of his health, but because the Kings will need his versatility and pick-and-roll ability with center Vlade Divac taking his act back to Los Angeles.
Of course, while Webber's current health report is certainly good news, it unfortunately doesn't reassure us that there will not be a reoccurrence or another injury. Fantasy owners should know that this is not his first knee injury nor is it the first time he's missed a significant chunk of the season. He played in only 54 games in 1994, 15 games in 1995, and 42 games in 1998—when needless to say, he was a much younger man. Thus, even if he hadn't missed most of last season, he would still be one of the league's biggest injury risks (along with players like Baron Davis and Vince Carter).
Clearly, we will be keeping a very close eye on Webber during training camp and the preseason to see how his knee responds to two-a-day practices, scrimmages, and exhibition games. That said, it is very likely that the Kings will limit that workload in order to ensure that such a valuable weapon is healthy for as long as possible.
So where does that leave us on draft day?
First off, we should note that we're more apt to gamble on C-Webb in three- and five-category fantasy leagues than in larger-category formats in which his plummeting free-throw percentage (61 percent in 2002) and relatively low field-goal percentage (46 percent in 2002, 41 percent in 2003) are added. In three- and five-cat leagues, however, few forwards can come anywhere close to his assist and steal totals.
Generally speaking, in a 10-team league, we can't possibly justify spending a second-round pick on a player with as much risk as Webber. The alternatives in the top 20 overall are not only safe and secure, but in several cases (i.e. LeBron James, Amare Stoudemire, Gilbert Arenas), they also have significant upside.
We also have a difficult time rationalizing Webber over certain third-round picks such as Richard Jefferson, Brad Miller, Kenyon Martin, and Pau Gasol. While these players may not have as much versatility as Webber in his prime and in good health, the potential for Webber missing half the season is so great that a slight dropoff in production is easy to swallow.
Moving slightly further down our cheat sheet, we begin to seriously consider jumping on Webber when players with their own question marks present themselves. Vince Carter has plenty of injury issues of his own, along with a pleasant little dispute with management. Zach Randolph has legal issues, an attitude problem, and persistent trade rumors following him around. Ben Wallace, for all of his rebounding and defensive prowess, can barely average half Webber's scoring output.
Thus, after taking a very close look at Webber's status, it appears that he lands in the late third round in 10-team leagues, depending on your needs. Of course, those who have been burned by injury risks in the past know that avoiding these players at all costs is an option worth committing to as well. With training camp and the preseason schedule in front of us before draft day arrives, we'll of course be monitoring the health and production of spotlight players like Webber, and we urge you to stay tuned for updates and cheat sheet adjustments.
Updated on Wednesday, Oct 6, 2004 4:08 pm EDT
