Over-reacting much???

[bajaden]

Hey Bajaden, a lot of the mocks seem to have the Kings taking Aminu, if Cousins and Favors are gone. What do you think of that as a selection?

He wouldn't be my personal choice, but there's no denying that he's a very talent player. His outside shot is still suspect, but it did improve. His ballhandling still needs a lot of work. Unfortunately he played PF in college and I believe he'll be a SF in the NBA. Most of the scouts agree with me, or I agree with them. You know, the chicken and egg thing.

Anyway, there in lies the problem for me. Because first, he's another SF, and we already have 3 on the roster. 4 if you want to include Cisco as one. And secondly, I'm not sure he's the best player available. Everybody left brings something a little different. So it makes it a little harder to evaluate. I think from the 5th pick down to around the 12th or 13th pick, it gets harder to say that this player is that much better that another player.

So I think that if you consider the talent level fairly equal, and I know thats subjective. But if you do, then you try to find the player that best suits your needs with the best upside to go along with it. Of all the players left, and if your looking for defensive impact, then you have to seriously look at Aldrich. If you want defensive impact, but still maintain a little more on the offensive side, then maybe you look at Udoh. If you want the possiblilty of both those things, but you might have to wait for it a little longer, then you look at Davis or Aminu. If you looking for someone that can step in right away and play on the offensive side of the ball then you look at Monroe, or SG James Anderson. There's a kid named Paul George that may be someone a few years from now is playing in the all star game.

My point is that there's a lot of talent there. You just have to find the plum. The player thats going to make a difference. Hey, if you really want to go out and take a giant leap of faith, then maybe you go after Daniel Orton.

 

[bajaden]

Baja, I think you're underestimating the sixers' very possible desire to just get the best prospect on the board, and that is clearly Evan Turner. Turner may not be the PG that they need, but he does give them the playmaker, shot creator, and leader that they need. Iggy really doesn't do that. While they could use a long term solution at C (and I don't discount the possibility of the scenario you describe) they need a perimeter leader more than anything, and Turner can fill that role. I see them trading Iggy or Young to accommodate for Turner before I see them either taking Cousins outright or trading down for him. I hope you're right though.

As far as Minny goes. I don't disagree that people are making good arguments for why Minny might not want to keep Cousins, but they're not making good arguments for why they wouldn't just take him and trade for that wing player that they need plus some extra goodies.

About your point on Pekovic and Milicic. While I think Minny is high on both these players (I remember liking Pekovic a lot when he was drafted), I don't think they let players that are likely rotational players at best dissuade them from taking Cousins, unless they thought the difference in trade value between him and Johnson (assuming the decision is between those two) was insignificant.

One reason they may want Cousins over Jefferson is that Cousins has better potential defensively at center. Size wise he matches up much better with the centers in the NBA, specifically Andrew Bynum. They had Kahn on NBA TV today and he was talking about how there isn't a problem between having Love and Jefferson on the floor at the same time, offensively, but there is a problem with them on the floor at the same time defensively, because of (namely) the Lakers and Gasol/Bynum. I think they eventually move Jefferson as opposed to Love, in the long run.

While I agree with you that there are still good big men prospects left, the big disappointment is that we were in a pretty good position to be guaranteed to get a prospect that had a very good chance at being a difference maker, but instead are left with good prospects that have decent shots at being solid players. So while I agree that there are good prospects left, better than maybe some other drafts, the disparity of apparent talent between Wall/Turner/Favors/Cousins and the rest is pretty big. If there is that difference maker available in the next tier of prospects, it will be much harder to predict.

Udoh? I like, but I'm not convinced of his upside as a go-to scorer, and I'm very concerned about his lack of defensive rebounding. That may be because of his system, but we don't know for sure.

Monroe? More of a Gasol light than Webber light IMO. IMO, he has the best chance at being a go-to post scorer than the others within this tier, but he gives us yet another post player that severely lacks defensively.

Orton? I like, but we may have to trade down to justify taking that kind of risk at the 5th pick.

Aldrich? A solid addition that would provide a big need, but he's not that 2-way difference maker that we were hoping for. Hence, the disappointment that you see.

Davis? Really hard to tell. My mid-level projection with him would be a Haslem type player, but who knows when it comes to him.

Johnson? I agree that his ball handling is probably going to limit him from being a high level shot creator, but people seem to forget the primary reason that made Danny Granger so undervalued in the 05 draft; it was his ball handling/shot creating ability. Not saying they'll necessarily end up being the same type of player, but even if they can't improve their ball handling to elite levels, if you have the shooting, length and athleticism, that margin of improvement they can make with their ball handling can end up making a pretty big difference. Besides, he's not that bad of a ball handler, he's certainly better than Aminu.

A big thing people keep missing about Johnson is that he's very active off the ball and has all the ability to be a very good off-ball scorer, which is so undervalued in the NBA, by the league, the media, and the fans. We can't capitalize on this ability as much as teams with true pass-first PG's, but I beg the people here to not just discount it. I'm not saying I'm a Johnson advocate per se, but lets not tear down his upside just because he plays a position that we're loaded at.

And finally, we need the best player possible, we need a core piece with this pick. It's hard to rely on the FA or trade market to nab those pieces, the draft is the best bet for a market like us IMO. If that best player is a big, great, that's awesome, but if it isn't then we're just going to have to take him and figure out the mess later. We can't risk losing out on overall talent because we're currently desperate for a big. We're (outside lottery luck) likely to keep falling lower in the draft over the next few years and our chances at difference makers are going to keep falling. So we have to approach this pick like we may not be in this area in the draft again, although it's still very possible we will. Whether we fill in our immediate holes now or not, we're never going to be a championship contender unless we have the star core players to build around first, and Evans alone isn't enough.

Remember that a lot of the info that I'm posting I get from reading all the local newspapers of each team. Which I do every morning. Thats not to say that the info is any better than reading the Bee and being able to predict what the Kings are going to do. But some of what I read were direct quotes from the Timberwolves GM. I also read an article on how high he was on Pekovic after going over and watching him play. And one thing is true. They do need help on the perimeter with scoring. Which is why they were so high on Turner along with everything else he brought to the table.

You might be right and they take Cousins. But I think there's also a chance they opt for Johnson, who would certainly make them better from the outside.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Remember that a lot of the info that I'm posting I get from reading all the local newspapers of each team. Which I do every morning. Thats not to say that the info is any better than reading the Bee and being able to predict what the Kings are going to do. But some of what I read were direct quotes from the Timberwolves GM. I also read an article on how high he was on Pekovic after going over and watching him play. And one thing is true. They do need help on the perimeter with scoring. Which is why they were so high on Turner along with everything else he brought to the table.

You might be right and they take Cousins. But I think there's also a chance they opt for Johnson, who would certainly make them better from the outside.

Sure there's a chance, but I don't think that happens unless Cousins' stock takes a serious hit for some reason. Otherwise, they'd just take him and work a deal for a perimeter scorer.

I'm sure he does like Pekovic, but I don't see him liking him so much he sees him as Jefferson's incumbent.

There's an outside chance they'll trade up for Turner if the sixers are high enough on Cousins, like you said, but that would still leave Cousins out of our grasp.

 

[Gary]

Dude, I know you mean well, but I take EVERYTHING you post with a humongous grain of salt. You were riding the anti-Tyreke bandwagon REALLY hard for a long time this past season, and you were SO wrong about everything. So please, stop before you make yourself look as stupid as last season made you look. K?

Not this crap again.. REALLY? You were getting to be a decent guy there for a while, and I thought we had come to some kind of an understanding, but then you go all douchebaggery on me again.. LOL

I had already said I was wrong about Evans. I still think he's a combo and we can still pick up someone better at PG to lighten the load on Evans which seems to be when he thrived. I was right about that...

I wanted a pure PG, I am a fan of pure PGs, I LOVE pure PGs, and I still WANT a pure PG... OK? ok....

And yes this is a 4 deep draft in terms of "prospect level". If you don't know this then you are as blind as you have always been.

 

[Gary]

To elaborate on what I said above.. You have the top 4...

Cousins, Wall, Favors, and Turner.. I think at this point most will agree with me right? In terms of looking at those four as prospects, and where they are generally ranked. It's been this way pretty much since March Madness.

Then you have 5-13..... Guys Like Johnson, Aldrich, Udoh, Patterson, Davis, Aminu, Whiteside, ect ect...

The above names have big questions around them. That's why at this point they aren't ranked as highly. Come workouts this could all change, but IF one of the four drop out of the top four then you want to look at why he dropped and if he's still worth taking. Why? Because it's a LONG FALL from top 4 to 5th.. We might still be better off taking an Aldrich over say Favors, or Cousins if they drop..

I have nothing against Johnson, but we don't need him. He wont really make the team better fighting over minutes with our other two SF prospects. If we are going to add a new SF every year then we might need to look at who is making these decisions.

Who do I want right now if Cousins, Favors, Turner and Wall go in the top 4? Aldrich.. We need a Big, not another SF.

 

[bajaden]

To elaborate on what I said above.. You have the top 4...

Cousins, Wall, Favors, and Turner.. I think at this point most will agree with me right? In terms of looking at those four as prospects, and where they are generally ranked. It's been this way pretty much since March Madness.

Then you have 5-13..... Guys Like Johnson, Aldrich, Udoh, Patterson, Davis, Aminu, Whiteside, ect ect...

The above names have big questions around them. That's why at this point they aren't ranked as highly. Come workouts this could all change, but IF one of the four drop out of the top four then you want to look at why he dropped and if he's still worth taking. Why? Because it's a LONG FALL from top 4 to 5th.. We might still be better off taking an Aldrich over say Favors, or Cousins if they drop..

I have nothing against Johnson, but we don't need him. He wont really make the team better fighting over minutes with our other two SF prospects. If we are going to add a new SF every year then we might need to look at who is making these decisions.

Who do I want right now if Cousins, Favors, Turner and Wall go in the top 4? Aldrich.. We need a Big, not another SF.

Well I agree with you on Johnson. And like you I have nothing against him. And if for some reason we draft him, I certainly hope we have some prearanged plan to move one or even two of our present SF's.

As far as a player dropping. It can happen for a variety of reasons, one of which is that there's a major problem with the player himself. Now having seen all of the top four play numerous times, I think I can safely say that it would have nothing to do with their on court abilities. That would mean, that if there is a problem, it would have to do with the players health, or infomation about the player that would discourage teams from picking him that high.

There's also the possibility that the player just fell because of the teams picking in the top four. They might feel that a different player fits their needs better. I know its accepted that the top four are Wall, Turner, Favors and Cousins. How can I say this.... That may not necessarily be the order on all the NBA teams draft boards. Remember, were looking at the draft from our own prespective and the influence of the internet mock draft sites. And some of that is driven by public opinion.

Lets look at public opinion for a moment, and see how there's perception, and then there's the facts. Its a given to most followers of college basketball that James Anderson is great shooter. Thats the horse he rides into the draft. He's more than just that, but thats what he's known for. At the same time, Evan Turner is considered by many to be the best all around player in college basketball, save one small flaw. His out side shooting.

Do we all agree that this is the perception of both these players? Strangely enough, Anderson shot 34.1% from 3pt range, and 45.7% overall. While Turner shot 36.4% from 3pt range, and 51.9% overall. Now its true that Anderson took more field goal attempts than Turner overall, and that can account for some of the disparity. But I'm not sure how that makes Turner a bad shooter. Anderson took 74 3pt shots and Turner took 55. I will admit that Turners shot is a little flat, and at times reminds me of Webbers elbow shot. But the truth is that he's a pretty damm good shooter.

The whole point I'm trying to make, is that we hear or read things, and we take them for fact. And then we make judgements based at times on false information. So the top four may well end up being the top four, but don't be surprised if someone else sneaks in there.

 

[Gary]

^^^

Very true Baja. My whole thing was people trying to talk themselves into believing one of those players was going to slide to us.

For instance Minnesota does not need a center? Since when? If they move Jefferson then they have Love at PF, and Cousins at C. If they don't they have Jefferson at PF, Cousins at center and Love off the bench as the first big. Their whole issues they had this year was that Love, and Jefferson were being abused. They went as far as to bench Love in order to play Jefferson at PF with Milicic at C.

It's almost certain that Wall is going to the Wizards.

Turner would REALLY fit well in Philly with Jrue. Their back court would have good size, and both are decent ball handlers.

Most of us here agree Favors would fit in NJ next to Lopez.

OK.. Here is a scenario which COULD work. Lets say NJ falls in love with Cousins, and picks him up. Would Minnesota pick another PF? If someone drops out of the top three I have to think it's Favors. Johnson or Aminu would probably go to Minnesota instead of Favors. Either way they are still screwed next year. the team is just not that good. Favors would then fall to us. He's my least favorite of the "top 4" but I would still take him in a heartbeat if available.

 

[Rookie]

To elaborate on what I said above.. You have the top 4...

Cousins, Wall, Favors, and Turner.. I think at this point most will agree with me right? In terms of looking at those four as prospects, and where they are generally ranked. It's been this way pretty much since March Madness.

Then you have 5-13..... Guys Like Johnson, Aldrich, Udoh, Patterson, Davis, Aminu, Whiteside, ect ect...

The above names have big questions around them. That's why at this point they aren't ranked as highly. Come workouts this could all change, but IF one of the four drop out of the top four then you want to look at why he dropped and if he's still worth taking. Why? Because it's a LONG FALL from top 4 to 5th.. We might still be better off taking an Aldrich over say Favors, or Cousins if they drop..

Agreed with mostly what you said..but the falling.

Every GM has their perception after the workout, meaning the player that fall down one GM list does not mean he fall down the other one.

So it all depends on how GP evaluate the player and ranked them. His top 4 could very well be differ from the other 4 GM and may get the 3rd or 4th best player from his list. I can see that happening. The most unlikely but best scenario is the #1 or #2 player on his list is not on any of the other 4 GM list. Then it be no differ from us getting the #1 pick.

And base from history, GP does very well at picking potential, which is what the draft is all about IMO.

 

[drogba]

When we dropped to 4 last year, it was 2012 among the Kings "Faithful" (I use that term loosely in times like this)......

We drop to 5 this year and the sky is falling. The team is moving to Anaheim. Vegas. Kansas City....


RELAX.

DeMarcus Cousins has been my pick for us all along, and with the Wizards taking Wall and 76ers taking Turner, Nets will take Favors at 3 (They DO NOT need Cousins...they need a legit PF like Favors to pair with Brook Lopez), and the Timberwolves won't be drafting a big man (Love and Al Jefferson in the fold)....Leaving us at 5 with Cousins and our BIGGEST NEED on the board.

Cousins will be there at 5 and be the PERFECT pick. Hawes is best suited to come off the bench, and this team needs a defensive stalwart in the middle in the worst way....He and Landry in the front-court will be AWESOME.

So relax Kings fans....We'll be just fine. Again.

agree, it will be a great pick.