NBA Keeper Top 10

[uolj]

Let's say you're about to have a draft in a new keeper league (no carryovers from last year, but you'll be able to keep a couple guys from this year's team). How would you rank the top 10 players. Does Durant make the top 10 because he's so young? Do Nash or Garnett drop out?

Obviously it depends on the scoring for your league, but assuming the scoring system you usually use, how would you rank your players and how does the keeper-ness of the league affect the rankings?

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Not enough information to form an opinion. But, at a guess, I'd say that my league runs so much differently from yours, that I probably don't completely understand the question in the first place.

In my league, the players are assigned a fixed value based on Yahoo's player rankings, and I use a hard cap. For example, Yahoo had Kevin Martin rated as the number-12 player overall at the time that the cap was ratified, ahead of the likes of LeBron James and Tim Duncan. I wouldn't have put Martin that high up and, since my league is not full of Kings Fans (there may only be one besides me, in fact), I doubt that any of the other managers in my league would have, either. But we don't get to make that call. It doesn't matter what value any respective manager places on a player, because whatever Yahoo says the player's value is is what the player is worth; no room for ambiguity that way.

The only advice I can offer is draft that league just like you were drafting any other league, and judge your keepers based on who your most productive players are.

 

[uolj]

This wasn't really specific to any one league. I'm just curious about the theory and the top 10 list seems like the best way to see how the theory plays out today.

In my new football keeper league, I basically drafted like a normal league and didn't worry about who would be good keepers (not a conscious decision - I just forgot ). But I don't like how that worked out.

A young player with potential is probably a better choice for backup than an old player that might not be washed up yet. But what about for the top of the draft? Martin doesn't strike me as somebody that should be rated up that much. He's young but I don't see him getting that much better than he is now. LeBron James might be sitting around his peak fantasy-wise, but if that level is higher than Martin then he should be rated higher than Martin.

Duncan has to be worth a little less at the top of your draft, right? If you get him and he is top 15 and plays at a center this year, great. But I would imagine that won't last more than a couple more years. Bryant should be highly rated for several more years than that, and guys like James, Anthony or Wade should be around even longer. If you get a keeper that will be scoring at a high level for years near the top of your draft, you have an advantage over someone who will score at a high level this year and next. Right?

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

That depends on 1) how long your league retains keepers before you re-draft, and 2) whether your goals are short-term or long-term. If I want to win this year or next, and then see what happens, then I'll take Duncan over Martin.

 

[uolj]

I would take Duncan over Martin, too, regardless. Martin probably won't be better than Duncan for at least a few years. I'm not even sure Martin is worthy of being a keeper anyway for leagues with 2 or 3 keeper players.

I'm assuming that the league has no re-draft... ever. Any re-draft less than four years makes the point pretty moot, since few players would be worthy of a high pick one year and not the next.