NBA Draft Odds

[lwc]

I find this article from 2 years ago that has the draft odds for every pick and it is quite interesting.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....aft-lottery-that-teams-dont-care-if-they-win/

At the time it was written, the Kings were projected 6th, just as they are today. According to their stats, the worst the Kings can finish in the lottery from the 6th worst record is 9th. That means if the Kings can manage to stay 6th or worse they cannot lose their pick to the Bulls.

With that said I am all for trading that pick/protection but would hate to simply give it away in a season that has been this horrible.

Thoughts?

 

[Gilles]

Even if Kings finish 9th, the odds of 2 teams from 10-14 places jumping into top3 simultaneously are very low (T-Wolves in that table - 0.38% or less than 1 in 250), and almost non-existent, when you need 3 to jump ahead (Wizards were falling out of top10 only on 0.00801% of occasions or a bit more than meagre 1 in 12500).
Kings are in 5 wins from Hornets, who are fighting for POs, Kings are not finishing outside of bottom-8, even if they tried, and with Karl being on board with "roster experiments", I say, a place right behind Orlando is safe too, given that two Ds are not allergic to wins.
With rather pedestrian 2015 class coming in, I would try and sell the rest of the protection on the pick to the Bulls for immediate help. Plus it opens up future 1-rounders for trading.

 

[lwc]

I trade the pick unless WCS is available.

 

[andjel]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery