NBA Draft Lottery

What pick will we end up with?


  • Total voters
    42
  • Poll closed .
Holmgren getting picked in the top 3 will be music to my ears.
I am a big fan of Holmgren, but I'd have to agree. I don't know if his body will hold up to the NBA schedule, and I don't know that he's a good fit with Sabonis. If he can't hold his own defending the perimeter it could potentially a bad defense worse, even when you add a potentially elite shotblocker.
 
You guys are trying to torture me! PLEASE STOP! He's a walking injury waiting to happen! If you liked Bagley you're going to love Holmgren! I can hear the questions now about his weight, his super special diet that will rectify it all (NOT!), his strength training (We need to increase his core strength, not his overall weight. NOT!), and last but not least special food drives in the Sacto area donating to his survival on planet earth.

I think, hope, and pray that McNair would pass on Holmgren at #4.
This made me want to draft Holmgren even more if he drops #Kangz
 
You guys are trying to torture me! PLEASE STOP! He's a walking injury waiting to happen! If you liked Bagley you're going to love Holmgren! I can hear the questions now about his weight, his super special diet that will rectify it all (NOT!), his strength training (We need to increase his core strength, not his overall weight. NOT!), and last but not least special food drives in the Sacto area donating to his survival on planet earth.

I think, hope, and pray that McNair would pass on Holmgren at #4.
Jesus, no.

You can have concerns about Holmgren, but if he's there a 4 somehow? No chance you pass on that talent.
 

Capt. Factorial

Trade Rumors = 0.00 Bits Of Information
Staff member
Holmgren getting picked in the top 3 will be music to my ears.
I'm with you on this one. Holmgren's numbers say "Take Me #1". His body says, "Ummmm...." I mean, if you had a crystal ball that said Holmgren was going to play 12 years in the NBA with no serious injuries ("Stats? Fuzzy. MPG? Fuzzy. All-star appearances? Championships? Fuzzy") then you take him and take those odds. I just have serious concerns about his long-term durability, and I'm perfectly willing to have somebody else to fall on that sword for us.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
I am a big fan of Holmgren, but I'd have to agree. I don't know if his body will hold up to the NBA schedule, and I don't know that he's a good fit with Sabonis. If he can't hold his own defending the perimeter it could potentially a bad defense worse, even when you add a potentially elite shotblocker.
Leaving aside the high potential to be broken-in-two factor, as a general concept I don't see how a person of his long length and lack of width and depth even fits into an offensive game. He's obviously not going to be a devastating scorer in the paint. Can we agree on that? Is he going to be at the perimeter and drive through contact to get a hoop? Nope. Can we agree on that? So where exactly are his scoring opportunities going to come from? Is he going to set screens - the skinniest screens imaginable - and then roll to the basket for a dunk? How easy would it be for an opposing teams' guards hedge off their man to nudge him off his path to the basket for one of those lobs? Easy peezy. Would opposing guards be intimidated in the least to "nudge" the guy into a different trajectory? Hardly. So where does that leave him? In the corner waiting for an open 3 pointer? Is he going to go Porzingas from 25-30 feet? As a garbage guy who gets his points off of rebounds, loose balls, and broken plays? If you have any insight into where his points are going to come from, please let me know.
 
I don't think Holmgren will ever be a go to scorer. He's much more of a Gobert with some wing skills and shooting.

That said, he put up the same points per 36 minutes as Paolo Banchero. He had a 2P% of 74% and a 3P% of 39%.

He scored in transition, off offensive rebounds/putback, on cuts to the basket, catch and shoot jumpers, and as a vertical lob threat in the pick & roll. I mean, there's 32 college games to watch on the kid with 170 buckets and 99 free throws. He's not a player that you clear out for and let him iso, but he found plenty of ways to put points on the board.

You seem obsessed with his size and potential for injury. I definitely have some concerns, but he hasn't had issues yet. Why are you so sure he's going to fall apart at the next level?

I'm curious to see what Holmgren weighs now. He's been listed at 195 but that number (as best I can figure) came from the end of his high school year.

He's skinny but is he light years from what Kevin Garnett looked like entering the NBA?




And he's coming into a much more perimeter oriented league with a lot less banging down low.
 
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This is fair. But there's a lot of gray area left between "can teach" and "will learn", if that makes sense. A lot of players improve their shooting and defensive awareness after joining the league, but it's not a guarantee. So really what it's going to come down to for all of these prospects is how confident you are that they will be able to improve on their weaknesses and also how well do you see their strengths translating to the NBA game. That's why there's so many opinions and the tough thing about this draft in particular is that almost everyone has a very obvious strength and a very obvious weakness.
Those players have to play. Comparing Ivey to Luka is ridiculous. Ivey will be stuck behind our glut of guards and won’t develop. For fit reasons Ivey is a horrible pick for us.
 
If we have a non-Ivey player we love and think can be an all-star (Sharpe?, Eason, Other wing) ….

1) we take them at 4 like Danny taking Jalen Brown

2) we wait and see if any of Smith, Banchero or Holmgren fall to 4.

3) we trade 4 to NO or Detroit for a player and slide back to 5 or 8.
 
Even though I kinda see it not working out, a backcourt with Ivey and Fox would be pretty insane for every other team in the league to have to deal with. Both of those guys look like they've got bullet-time engaged when they're driving to the basket through backpedaling defenders. Ivey was able to run off of screens and catch and shoot at Purdue and Fox started to look comfortable spotting up and shooting once Sabonis got here. If you project some kind of motion offense built around Sabonis in the high post, Fox and Ivey would each be a matchup nightmare individually if they catch the ball with a head of steam and the defense scrambling to rotate. If we had both of them out there spinning off of Sabonis all we'd need to do at that point is stick two shooters in the corners and watch the wheels fall off of every other team's defensive game plan. It's sortof like Golden State's offense but inverted with our two "splash bros" attacking the paint on every possession.

So yeah, I can see a scenario where picking Ivey points us in the direction of a strong team identity. I'm more concerned about the fit defensively. The hope there would be that Mike Brown can get both Ivey and Fox to commit to a strategy on screens (switch everything, fight to get over, or drop and recover -- just pick something and do it consistently) and then play their tails off executing that strategy. They both have a maddening tendency to float in space at times when they lose track of their man and we don't currently have wings capable of rotating and covering for them without selling out and opening up holes somewhere else.
Yes I'm quoting myself here... but only because I've been watching more footage of Ivey and realized that I completely dropped the ball there on not calling a potential Fox and Ivey pairing the "Slash Brothers". You deserve better kingfans.com and I'm sorry I let you down!
 
Yes I'm quoting myself here... but only because I've been watching more footage of Ivey and realized that I completely dropped the ball there on not calling a potential Fox and Ivey pairing the "Slash Brothers". You deserve better kingfans.com and I'm sorry I let you down!
For a second there I thought you were talking about Kings fans having to watch them play together
 
I've watched a little bit of most of the top prospects.

Monte is definitely going to have his work cut out for him.

Ivey has star potential to me for sure and I don't think you should pass on him for fit reasons.

Keegan looks like a stud as well. Bulls-eye shooter, looks to really give it his all.

Sharpe looks like he could easily be a Devin Booker light. That shot looks wet, and pair that with his athleticism I think he could be a very dangerous player.

Then for the top 3, Chet is a gamer, Jabari is a gamer, and Paolo looks very skilled, I love his passing ability.

I think it would be very hard to mess this up.

I could easily see Ivey go top 3 btw.

And I think if he does you may just have to pick whoever drops from Chet, Jabari, Paolo.
 
I don't think Holmgren will ever be a go to scorer. He's much more of a Gobert with some wing skills and shooting.

That said, he put up the same points per 36 minutes as Paolo Banchero. He had a 2P% of 74% and a 3P% of 39%.

He scored in transition, off offensive rebounds/putback, on cuts to the basket, catch and shoot jumpers, and as a vertical lob threat in the pick & roll. I mean, there's 32 college games to watch on the kid with 170 buckets and 99 free throws. He's not a player that you clear out for and let him iso, but he found plenty of ways to put points on the board.

You seem obsessed with his size and potential for injury. I definitely have some concerns, but he hasn't had issues yet. Why are you so sure he's going to fall apart at the next level?

I'm curious to see what Holmgren weighs now. He's been listed at 195 but that number (as best I can figure) came from the end of his high school year.

He's skinny but is he light years from what Kevin Garnett looked like entering the NBA?




And he's coming into a much more perimeter oriented league with a lot less banging down low.
Paul Gasol was just as skinny as Holmgren when he came into the league. So I'm not as concerned about his ability to put on weight. Since us 30 plus year old dudes know putting on weight is about the easiest thing to do as we get older. My biggest concern is production. Assuming injuries are not a thing, I don't think whoever drafts him will get elite production from him until his second contract. Physicality, I think, is the biggest jump from college to the pros. Of the top 3 picks, he has the biggest physical gap to cover.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
Lots of people on this board loved Jonathan Isaac before the injuries. If Chet is like a healthy Isaac with better shooting, that is a stud. He’d fit so well next to Sabonis.
Yeah the thing is that pretty much every single one of the top six guys in this draft fit the Kings needs like a glove aside from Jaden Ivey who is less a bad fit than an awkward one. It just so happens that the Kings are picking exactly where Ivey is slotted lol
 
Fox got more respectable at shooting the three later in the year, Barnes is a solid 3pt shooter, and Sabonis is working on his 3s now. If we go with Ivey, he can break down the defense and pass to an open shooter or attack the rim, just like Fox.

Without any other moves, I'm trying to imagine how a lineup of Fox-Ivey-Barnes-Holmes-Sabonis would work.
 
Fox got more respectable at shooting the three later in the year, Barnes is a solid 3pt shooter, and Sabonis is working on his 3s now. If we go with Ivey, he can break down the defense and pass to an open shooter or attack the rim, just like Fox.

Without any other moves, I'm trying to imagine how a lineup of Fox-Ivey-Barnes-Holmes-Sabonis would work.
95% of the scoring would be in the paint. Scary. Lolzzz.
 
I would understand the concern about Ivey's offensive fit if he had played primarily on the ball this season and/or made less than 30% of this three point jumpers. The reason I could see him playing alongside Fox rather than replacing him as a lead guard is because a big part of Purdue's offense this past season was running Ivey around screens into spot-up three point jumpers. He actually has a respectable 3-point attempt rate (.406) and while he didn't hit them at an elite rate, he was respectable at 36% and a lot of his attempts were high degree of difficulty rather than wide open looks with his feet set. The ideal fit for Ivey is a team that already has a primary playmaker so he can be a secondary creator and opportunistic driver or shooter, taking what the defense allows rather than needing to control the pace on every possession.

A lot of the concern here (I suspect) is because of what we saw last season with Fox and Haliburton trying to share ballhandling duties. The difference I see is that both Fox and Haliburton are at their best with the ball in their hands while Ivey is comfortable in an off-the-ball role. Also, Haliburton is primarily a pick and roll focused ballhandler who uses screens to free himself while Fox and Ivey use their dribble moves to beat defenders one on one and get into the paint. Nobody will be able to load up on both Fox and Ivey if they share a backcourt and that means one of them is going to have a mismatch at all times. It also helps that Fox is a lefty who loves to stop and pull up for midrange jumpers and Ivey is a righty who almost never pulls up for midrange jumpers so they would constantly be putting pressure on different parts of the floor.

Defense is a whole other issue and all I can say about a potential Fox and Ivey backcourt on defense is that Mike Brown is really going to have to earn his pay check. Both guys are lightning quick and Ivey has the size (presumed 6-9 wingspan) to match up primarily with wing players however, in an era where (1) stopping dribble penetration from guards and (2) closing out effectively on shooters are both at a premium, we'd be going into every game with two point of attack defenders who aren't particularly great at either.
 
I would understand the concern about Ivey's offensive fit if he had played primarily on the ball this season and/or made less than 30% of this three point jumpers. The reason I could see him playing alongside Fox rather than replacing him as a lead guard is because a big part of Purdue's offense this past season was running Ivey around screens into spot-up three point jumpers. He actually has a respectable 3-point attempt rate (.406) and while he didn't hit them at an elite rate, he was respectable at 36% and a lot of his attempts were high degree of difficulty rather than wide open looks with his feet set. The ideal fit for Ivey is a team that already has a primary playmaker so he can be a secondary creator and opportunistic driver or shooter, taking what the defense allows rather than needing to control the pace on every possession.

A lot of the concern here (I suspect) is because of what we saw last season with Fox and Haliburton trying to share ballhandling duties. The difference I see is that both Fox and Haliburton are at their best with the ball in their hands while Ivey is comfortable in an off-the-ball role. Also, Haliburton is primarily a pick and roll focused ballhandler who uses screens to free himself while Fox and Ivey use their dribble moves to beat defenders one on one and get into the paint. Nobody will be able to load up on both Fox and Ivey if they share a backcourt and that means one of them is going to have a mismatch at all times. It also helps that Fox is a lefty who loves to stop and pull up for midrange jumpers and Ivey is a righty who almost never pulls up for midrange jumpers so they would constantly be putting pressure on different parts of the floor.

Defense is a whole other issue and all I can say about a potential Fox and Ivey backcourt on defense is that Mike Brown is really going to have to earn his pay check. Both guys are lightning quick and Ivey has the size (presumed 6-9 wingspan) to match up primarily with wing players however, in an era where (1) stopping dribble penetration from guards and (2) closing out effectively on shooters are both at a premium, we'd be going into every game with two point of attack defenders who aren't particularly great at either.
Well, and the interesting thing is Fox and Hali were dynamite in Hali's rookie year because he played that off-ball secondary creator/spacer role to perfection. And when he changed his play-style this year to be a more aggressive on-ball playmaker, it became "Hali's turn/Fox's turn" type of offense and there was only maybe 2 or 3 games where both guys went off at the same time. And because both guys are poor defenders, it lead us to being a super high variance team

That's a big reason I'm so bullish on the DDV skill-set. His primary value is defense, hustle, transition, rebounding and spot up 3pt shooting. He was a dominant C&S player in a Kings uni; exactly what we've been looking for from that position. His secondary creation/scoring doesn't dictate whether or not he has a good game or not, but should act as a great compliment to the high USG of Fox/Sabonis.
 
Well, and the interesting thing is Fox and Hali were dynamite in Hali's rookie year because he played that off-ball secondary creator/spacer role to perfection. And when he changed his play-style this year to be a more aggressive on-ball playmaker, it became "Hali's turn/Fox's turn" type of offense and there was only maybe 2 or 3 games where both guys went off at the same time. And because both guys are poor defenders, it lead us to being a super high variance team

That's a big reason I'm so bullish on the DDV skill-set. His primary value is defense, hustle, transition, rebounding and spot up 3pt shooting. He was a dominant C&S player in a Kings uni; exactly what we've been looking for from that position. His secondary creation/scoring doesn't dictate whether or not he has a good game or not, but should act as a great compliment to the high USG of Fox/Sabonis.
DDV may not be a perfect player but if his 3pt % comes up as it should playing in a competent offense and on a healthy ankle, I have no concern about keeping him in our 2-3 year plan. It does feel like a lot of people are over eager to move on.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
I don't think Holmgren will ever be a go to scorer. He's much more of a Gobert with some wing skills and shooting.

That said, he put up the same points per 36 minutes as Paolo Banchero. He had a 2P% of 74% and a 3P% of 39%.

He scored in transition, off offensive rebounds/putback, on cuts to the basket, catch and shoot jumpers, and as a vertical lob threat in the pick & roll. I mean, there's 32 college games to watch on the kid with 170 buckets and 99 free throws. He's not a player that you clear out for and let him iso, but he found plenty of ways to put points on the board.

You seem obsessed with his size and potential for injury. I definitely have some concerns, but he hasn't had issues yet. Why are you so sure he's going to fall apart at the next level?

I'm curious to see what Holmgren weighs now. He's been listed at 195 but that number (as best I can figure) came from the end of his high school year.

He's skinny but is he light years from what Kevin Garnett looked like entering the NBA?




And he's coming into a much more perimeter oriented league with a lot less banging down low.
Gobert with some shooting, hugh? Which mean he can't guard the perimeter like Gobert? Which assumes that he's going to clog the paint like Gobert? But he has more offense that's coming from somewhere (not exactly sure where) than Gobert so he's Gobert plus. He's going to be the next Defensive Player of the Year plus he's going to have offensive skill. We shall see.
 
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DDV may not be a perfect player but if his 3pt % comes up as it should playing in a competent offense and on a healthy ankle, I have no concern about keeping him in our 2-3 year plan. It does feel like a lot of people are over eager to move on.
The concern with him is if the Kings need to, or do upgrade the SG spot in the draft or otherwise, say hello to your next Holmes/JT/K9 if he gets that MLE deal he wants. Best case is still him getting the QO. People gushed about JT getting re-signed. And Holmes. You can't look at deals like that in a bubble. Not with role players playing a position you might need star power at.
 
The concern with him is if the Kings need to, or do upgrade the SG spot in the draft or otherwise, say hello to your next Holmes/JT/K9 if he gets that MLE deal he wants. Best case is still him getting the QO. People gushed about JT getting re-signed. And Holmes. You can't look at deals like that in a bubble. Not with role players playing a position you might need star power at.
I'm not sure how 2-3 years becomes a JT or K9 situation those guys had like 4 years on their deals when we wanted to move on.

Before we get too worked up on Holmes let's see if he is indeed unmovable.
 
The concern with him is if the Kings need to, or do upgrade the SG spot in the draft or otherwise, say hello to your next Holmes/JT/K9 if he gets that MLE deal he wants. Best case is still him getting the QO. People gushed about JT getting re-signed. And Holmes. You can't look at deals like that in a bubble. Not with role players playing a position you might need star power at.
I mean, Holmes is actually a good player and a good contract. Not his fault a top 25 guy in Sabonis was available. You make that swing every time and obviously don't let Holmes, who is top 15-ish at the C position stand in the way. And I'm willing to give Holmes a pass for last season; totally understandable why he fell off a cliff in production the back-half of the year with all the nonsense going on in his personal life. We'll see what happens when/if he gets flipped this summer and I'm guessing we'll be glad that we resigned him on that cheap of a deal.

DDV is also a good player and he's significantly different because you can still find minutes with him, even if he transitioned to a super-sub bench role. Where Holmes gets stuck is he and Sabonis maybe could only share like 5 or 6 minutes on the floor together.

It's just a no-brainer. He's good, he's the exact sort of role player this team has needed in ages, he's still young and you're likely getting most of his prime with the next contract. And the fact Monte went and got him 2 years later after the Bogi/Bucks thing pretty much guarantees he's apart of this team's future (especially at the time where DDV was probably at his lowest point production wise in his career). None chance he just walks (assuming there isn't an insane like 20+mil offer).
 
Fox got more respectable at shooting the three later in the year, Barnes is a solid 3pt shooter, and Sabonis is working on his 3s now. If we go with Ivey, he can break down the defense and pass to an open shooter or attack the rim, just like Fox.

Without any other moves, I'm trying to imagine how a lineup of Fox-Ivey-Barnes-Holmes-Sabonis would work.
It wouldn’t work. Not with our current roster. Breaking down the defense and passing to an open shooter is a great idea, but when you have shooters like the Kings, it becomes a bad idea. Ivey to Fox for an open 3? Opposing teams would dream of this scenario. Barnes would be our only consistent threat and it’s not enough. You need multiple guys that can shoot at a high percentage to keep the defense honest. Otherwise teams will just focus on Barnes and that will be that.
 
It wouldn’t work. Not with our current roster. Breaking down the defense and passing to an open shooter is a great idea, but when you have shooters like the Kings, it becomes a bad idea. Ivey to Fox for an open 3? Opposing teams would dream of this scenario. Barnes would be our only consistent threat and it’s not enough. You need multiple guys that can shoot at a high percentage to keep the defense honest. Otherwise teams will just focus on Barnes and that will be that.
ivey was 40.6% from 3 as a spot up shooter. It’s not like his shot is broken or anything.
 
I'm not sure how 2-3 years becomes a JT or K9 situation those guys had like 4 years on their deals when we wanted to move on.

Before we get too worked up on Holmes let's see if he is indeed unmovable.
Because, they might have MAX space next summer. Remember what JT cost to get him off the books in a similar situation. Every year it's the same story. Work out the minutes as is with Fox/Davion/Donte/TD/Holiday. I personally think TD has way higher upside than Donte and you can cut bait on him after next season should it not work. Stay as flexible as possible if they don't make a major move.