bajaden
Hall of Famer
I've wasted my time for the last couple of days looking up players career stats. It all came out of a thread about whether we should consider making a run at Andre Miller in the off season. His age was brought up as a negative in that discussion. It got me to thinking about how one really knows how much a player has left. Whats the common denominator. Age? Some players seem to burn out earlier than others. But what I was looking for was an average. A yardstick of sorts.
One common thing that leaped out at me after a while was games played. Perhaps minutes played would be even more accurate, but I decided to go with games played because it was easier. I've made a list of players whose careers are over, and tried to pick players that are recognizable. There seemed to be a common theme. You judge for yourself.
Nate Ardhibald - 876 career games played
Kareem Abdul Jabbar - 1560 career games played
Charles Barkley - 1073 career games played
Rick Barry - 794 career games played
Jon Barry (just for fun) - 821 career games played
Elgin Baylor - 846 career games played
Walt Bellamy - 1043 career games played
Larry Bird - 897 career games played
P.J. Brown - 1089 career games played
Adrian Dantley - 955 career games played
Darryl Dawkins - 726 career games played
Clyde Drexler - 1086 career games played
Joe Dumars - 1018 career games played
Wilt Chamberlain - 1045 career games played
Bob Cousy - 924 career games played
Walt Frazier - 825 career games played
George Gervin - 791 career games played
A.C. Green - 1278 career games played
Julius Erving - 836 career games played
Patrick Ewing - 1183 career games played
Michael Jordan - 1072 career games played
Bob McAdoo - 852 career games played
Moses Malone - 1329 career games played
Why so many? Well to have a legitimate average you need to have a pretty good slice of players. I tried for the most part to pick players that were very good and probably would have to be dragged into retirement. So what the trend tells me, is that somewhere between 800 and 1000 games on average, most careers come to and end. In almost every case where the player played well past a thousand games there was a dramatic drop off in his play. Your welcome to go look it up for yourself. There were a couple of exceptions, such as Jabbar, and one I didn't list above, Mutumbo, who also played in 1500 plus games.
Now this isn't a perfect science, because of, number one, some players came out of highschool and never played a single college game, and of course the Euro's start playing professionaly when their born. The point is, that I don't know how many games a european player may have played before coming to the NBA. So its possible that the life expectancy of a european player may actually be shorter than the 800 to 1000 game average. The same may true of a player that came out of highschool. He may be capable of playing more than a 1000 games, but he would arrive at that figure at an earlier age. So Its possible that a player of that description could start declining at age 32 or 33 instead of age 35 or 36.
An example would be Kobe Bryant. I believe he's around 31 years of age, don't quote me, but he's already played in 948 games. So it wouldn' surprise me that if he started having little injury problems in the next couple of years. Kevin Garnett is already starting to show wear and tear and rightly so. He's already played in 1055 games. When you add Ray Allen with 942 games and Paul Pierce with 813 games, my advice for them is to win now or forget it.
To me, this year Dirk Nowitzki didn't look like the Dirk of old. Still pretty good, but a step slower. He's played in 839 NBA games. The question is, how many games did he play in europe before coming to the NBA?
Anyway, I won't bore you with any more of this. I just thought it was interesting. And by the way, since he's the one that prompted me to do this. Andre Miller - 815 career games played. I think I'll pass, thank you...
One common thing that leaped out at me after a while was games played. Perhaps minutes played would be even more accurate, but I decided to go with games played because it was easier. I've made a list of players whose careers are over, and tried to pick players that are recognizable. There seemed to be a common theme. You judge for yourself.
Nate Ardhibald - 876 career games played
Kareem Abdul Jabbar - 1560 career games played
Charles Barkley - 1073 career games played
Rick Barry - 794 career games played
Jon Barry (just for fun) - 821 career games played
Elgin Baylor - 846 career games played
Walt Bellamy - 1043 career games played
Larry Bird - 897 career games played
P.J. Brown - 1089 career games played
Adrian Dantley - 955 career games played
Darryl Dawkins - 726 career games played
Clyde Drexler - 1086 career games played
Joe Dumars - 1018 career games played
Wilt Chamberlain - 1045 career games played
Bob Cousy - 924 career games played
Walt Frazier - 825 career games played
George Gervin - 791 career games played
A.C. Green - 1278 career games played
Julius Erving - 836 career games played
Patrick Ewing - 1183 career games played
Michael Jordan - 1072 career games played
Bob McAdoo - 852 career games played
Moses Malone - 1329 career games played
Why so many? Well to have a legitimate average you need to have a pretty good slice of players. I tried for the most part to pick players that were very good and probably would have to be dragged into retirement. So what the trend tells me, is that somewhere between 800 and 1000 games on average, most careers come to and end. In almost every case where the player played well past a thousand games there was a dramatic drop off in his play. Your welcome to go look it up for yourself. There were a couple of exceptions, such as Jabbar, and one I didn't list above, Mutumbo, who also played in 1500 plus games.
Now this isn't a perfect science, because of, number one, some players came out of highschool and never played a single college game, and of course the Euro's start playing professionaly when their born. The point is, that I don't know how many games a european player may have played before coming to the NBA. So its possible that the life expectancy of a european player may actually be shorter than the 800 to 1000 game average. The same may true of a player that came out of highschool. He may be capable of playing more than a 1000 games, but he would arrive at that figure at an earlier age. So Its possible that a player of that description could start declining at age 32 or 33 instead of age 35 or 36.
An example would be Kobe Bryant. I believe he's around 31 years of age, don't quote me, but he's already played in 948 games. So it wouldn' surprise me that if he started having little injury problems in the next couple of years. Kevin Garnett is already starting to show wear and tear and rightly so. He's already played in 1055 games. When you add Ray Allen with 942 games and Paul Pierce with 813 games, my advice for them is to win now or forget it.
To me, this year Dirk Nowitzki didn't look like the Dirk of old. Still pretty good, but a step slower. He's played in 839 NBA games. The question is, how many games did he play in europe before coming to the NBA?
Anyway, I won't bore you with any more of this. I just thought it was interesting. And by the way, since he's the one that prompted me to do this. Andre Miller - 815 career games played. I think I'll pass, thank you...
