Kreidler: Christie deal good step for Petrie

love_them_kings

love_them_kings

Starter
#31
#31
uolj said:
If you don't make the Webber trade, and then he is injured tomorrow and must retire, then you lose the contributions of Thomas, Williamson, and Skinner. You also don't have the ability to get rid of the big contract as easily as you would be able to trade those three smaller contracts (which aren't easy to trade either). As nicely as those guys have been playing lately, I believe Petrie could have fairly easily found similarly skilled players using trades and exceptions over the summer. I also don't expect the Kings to get under the salary cap any time soon. To me, a potential Webber injury did not pose a very big risk.

If you don't make the Webber trade, and the team continues on as it had been, then they did have a shot at the championship. Why? Because that team had playoff experience. More than any other Western Conference contender except the Spurs, they had been there and knew how to play after April. It was no fluke when a team struggling to a 4-8 record to close out the regular season came within 3 minutes of starting the playoffs 7-2. This year's team was better than that team, and so had just as much chance to knock off the upstarts that aren't built for the playoffs and have no postseason experience as teams. I'd have given them about a 40 to 60% chance of beating everybody in the West except for the Spurs. Now, against San Antonio, the chances of the pre-trade Kings beating a Duncan-led Spurs team was maybe 20%, and the chances of Duncan being injured is about 20%, and factoring all that stuff in I'd say the chances of the Kings making the NBA Finals would have been about 1 in 10. Without Webber, the Kings do have a shot, but they lose the advantages they had over Seattle, Phoenix, Dallas, Memphis and Houston. I'd say their chances now are about 1 in 25. That is a big jump.

So if I was Petrie and only knew what I know and didn't know whatever he knows, I would take the risks described in the first paragraph to get the increased chances described in the second.

That is how you can get rid of a 32 year old player too early.
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I agree with you 100%. If I were Petrie (but as you said, only knew what I knew, as compared to what he may know) I don't make this trade. I thought we had a (slim) chance this year, and wouldn't have made this trade at this time. But, realisitically Petrie knows more than we do, about the team, and about Webber's health, and he also talks more closely with the Maloofs about where they want to be salary wise, etc, in the coming years. So, it is what it is, but yeah, you can get rid of a 32 year old player too early, and, if Webb was healthy he'd still be here.
 
C

chimchim

Prospect
#32
#32
Mobley was a good get. But I'm still really SAD that Christie is gone. Makes me even sadder to hear about how he and his family miss Sac so much. Players like him make people fans beyond just fair weather.
 
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