[Game] Kings @ Trailblazers, Saturday, 11/18 - 7 PT
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They really have been missing wide open looks but lets think about the looks they've been getting.
As far as 3pt shooting goes, they're 14th in the league at 3pt% so they've been average in that department. I don't really have an complaints there other than Bogie's long ball efficiency and hopefully Fox's improvement as time goes by.
What they've been missing are long 2 point shots and that's mainly what Joerger's system produces for his guards. The worst shot in basketball. As a defense, if there is something you want to concede, it's the long 2. That's exactly what teams have been doing against the Kings and they've been missing a lot of them. Probably because they don't practice shooting a half step inside the 3 point line as much as they do actual 3 pointers.
I really hope the system is in flux but Joerger not really running much else for his NBA career tells me otherwise. I personally don't buy into the tanking idea because this team is already bad enough to lose without needing anything extra to tank. They can develop and tank at the same time. I can't really think of a rhyme or a reason for this offense other than Joerger just personally thinking it's the best way to win NBA games. I think it's a waste of time and a waste of development for most of these guys. It's going to wind up being a confidence killer for anyone under 6'7" on this team. I mean how many assists do the big men get by hitting open cutters from the high post? Like once a game maybe and that's the main point of the system.
I don't want Joerger to be fired because I'm tired of the coaching carousel but we've been waiting patiently for a decade to start getting excited about basketball again so he needs to stop wasting our time if he doesn't know how to coach to his players strengths.
As far as 3pt shooting goes, they're 14th in the league at 3pt% so they've been average in that department. I don't really have an complaints there other than Bogie's long ball efficiency and hopefully Fox's improvement as time goes by.
What they've been missing are long 2 point shots and that's mainly what Joerger's system produces for his guards. The worst shot in basketball. As a defense, if there is something you want to concede, it's the long 2. That's exactly what teams have been doing against the Kings and they've been missing a lot of them. Probably because they don't practice shooting a half step inside the 3 point line as much as they do actual 3 pointers.
I really hope the system is in flux but Joerger not really running much else for his NBA career tells me otherwise. I personally don't buy into the tanking idea because this team is already bad enough to lose without needing anything extra to tank. They can develop and tank at the same time. I can't really think of a rhyme or a reason for this offense other than Joerger just personally thinking it's the best way to win NBA games. I think it's a waste of time and a waste of development for most of these guys. It's going to wind up being a confidence killer for anyone under 6'7" on this team. I mean how many assists do the big men get by hitting open cutters from the high post? Like once a game maybe and that's the main point of the system.
I don't want Joerger to be fired because I'm tired of the coaching carousel but we've been waiting patiently for a decade to start getting excited about basketball again so he needs to stop wasting our time if he doesn't know how to coach to his players strengths.
You make a lot of good points. I wonder if these long two's are the shots Joerger wants them to take, or if they are more resulting from broken plays. Only time will tell if we adopt the current NBA meta game. Joerger has three years in Memphis and last year with us on his NBA resume. Not sure if that is enough to put his NBA coaching style in a box or not. I just hope I get to see some Kings playoff games resulting from this rebuild in the next few years. Been too long.
The gap between Bamba and Bridges is pretty big. You hear the expression, it's an X-player draft? Well, this one's a 5 player draft before it drops off, like last year was an 9/11 player draft and the year before was an 8 player draft. All these guys except maybe Bamba go #1 in 2017 provided they stay at their current stock. It's top heavy more than anything.
I know if we have an opportunity to take one of these Top 5 guys and Vlade decides to do something else, I'm calling for his head immediately.
I know if we have an opportunity to take one of these Top 5 guys and Vlade decides to do something else, I'm calling for his head immediately.
Did you watch the game? I only ask because seeing WCS/KK out there had a lot of tangibles that don't necessarily show up in the box score.
How do you figure what Willie's natural position is? Again I have to point to what you see with your eyes as opposed to what the stat lines might tell you, although even the stat lines seem to indicate he's doing pretty good at the 4. And, if we end up getting Ayton in the draft (
) I think WCS/Ayton could be very interesting. In addition, we have Papa G, and we don't know how he's going to develop yet.
So, sorry but I think you're making a lot of assumptions about WCS and his future that simply are too soon or are not borne out by the facts at hand.
How do you figure what Willie's natural position is? Again I have to point to what you see with your eyes as opposed to what the stat lines might tell you, although even the stat lines seem to indicate he's doing pretty good at the 4. And, if we end up getting Ayton in the draft (
) I think WCS/Ayton could be very interesting. In addition, we have Papa G, and we don't know how he's going to develop yet.So, sorry but I think you're making a lot of assumptions about WCS and his future that simply are too soon or are not borne out by the facts at hand.
My point has little to do with Willie's stats next to Koufos against the Blazers, but more with the direction of the franchise going forward in general and Willies role, which is defined by the need of the team and the style of play we face on a regular basis.
Let's take a look at the Blazers first. We faced the Blazers while one of their key players was injured. Usually the Blazers play Aminu a lot of time at the 4. So the two big man lineups we encountered the last two games are usually not the norm for the Blazers. Usually KK+Willie would face a lot more front court combinations like Nurkic/Aminu/Harkless or Davis/Aminu, Connaughton.
Let's keep that in mind and move on to some different teams.
Golden State is pretty self explanatory. Warriors always play a combination of one big (Pachulia, D.West) with 4 guys able to operate on the perimeter. While D.Green might qualify as a PF/C in todays league, not too long ago he was called a tweener and analysts questioned his ability to make it in the league, because he has no clear cut position. How times have changed....
The Rockets might play Ryno a lot of minutes, but basically use him as a one dimensional floor stretcher. While he is closer to the traditional PF of old in terms of size, footspeed and build, Ryan Anderson is a 3pt specialist and the offensive benefits of having him on the floor outweigh the defensive disadvantages. Nonetheless the Rockets were trying to trade him in the offseason, most likely to add another mobile wing player to follow the current trend.
The Timberwolves maybe play the most traditional lineups in the Western Conference Playoff race. Lineups featuring Towns next to another big like Gibson or Bjelica are the norm. But both Gibson and Bjelica try to stretch the floor out to the point line and Towns is a decent shooter aswell.
The Spurs are especially interesting, because right now they field a lot of lineups featuring Gasol and Aldridge. But Leonard is still injured and they added Gay to the mix in the offseason. Last season Pop refused to follow the trend and played a lot of Gasol+LMA lineups and managed to beat the Rockets that way. I'm really curious what Pop will do, when Leonard gets healthy. Will he still ride his bigs or will he play Gay at the 4 more to keep up with quicker teams? The LMA+Gasol combinations only work however, because both guys can shoot 3's.
I assume we all watch a fair share of Pelicans games, so we all know, that they try to do it big, while doing it big means having Cousins shoot about 7.5 3's a game, run the floor and drive from the 3 point line. So once again a two big lineup only works, because both guys can stretch the floor. It remains to be seen, if the Pelicans experiment will be successful, but so far I still have my doubts. Especially against teams able to outrun and outshoot them, while pressuring and swarming their bigs, the Pelicans sometimes look absolutely aweful.
Which leaves the Nuggets and Grizzlies currently in the playoff picture and both teams follow the usual one big + a smaller, mobile guy able to shoot 3's and both their starting bigs are very capable shooters themselves.
So to sum it up. Out of the 8 teams currently in a playoff spot, only 4 regularly play 2 bigs at the same time. Out of those 4 teams only 1 plays a non shooting big next to another big guy - the Rockets with their combination of Capela + Ryno where one of the guys is a 3 point specialist. On every other team still playing two big man lineups for extended minutes both bigs need to be guarded out to the 3 point line.
I don't want to go in depth on every eastern conference team, but the trend obviously continues in the East with the current #1 spot playing almost exclusively lineups with 5 shooters, when you cut out the 18.6 minutes the Celtics play Baynes per game.
So it's pretty obvious, that the traditional basketball positions of PF and Center don't matter anymore - they are all bigs. Today you are either a rebounder, finisher and rim protector like Capela, Drummond or Jordan, or you shoot 3's and are able to attack a closeout with a live dribble. And ideally you can do everything aforementioned. Lineups with two non shooting bigs are a thing of the past.
And when we take the risk to make educated guesses, it might be, that two big man lineups will be a thing of the past soon enough, even when both bigs are able to shoot, simply because guys around 6'7 to 6'9 with long arms usually have an easier job, when forced to switch onto a guard, therefore providing a defensive advantage, while at the same time being big and strong doesn't matter that much anymore, when the offense takes place at the 3 point line, transition defense is paramout, rebounds are long, because of the sheer amount of 3 point shots and contact is called in a way, that favors smaller, quicker players.
As we speak the best defensive team, relies almost exclusively on wing players and their big man positions are filled with a career long backup center, a guy, people called out to be soft during his tenure in Atlanta and who was never known to be a dominant rim protector or rebounder and of course the 6'9 undrafted, hard working German.
Long story short and kudos to everyone, who didn't fall asleep yet.
What does this mean for the Kings and for WCS?
Well currently the Kings have 6 guys on their roster, who play the big man position. Out of those 6 guys only 2 have shown the ability to shoot 3's.
Meanwhile the Kings only have one wing player with a size of 6'8 or above and 3 guys around 6'6, still counting the grandpa of the team, who most likely won't be a part of the future.
Even when we still believe in two big man lineups, things don't look too rosy, because only one of our young bigs seems to have 3 point range. And when we don't believe in two big man lineups and believe in the benefits of having as much interchangable pieces as possible on the floor at the same time, things actually look aweful.
Now for WCS that means, that most likely he has to compete for minutes at the big man spot. Not the PF or Center, but the big man spot. So far he jumpshot is questionable and he pulls the trigger exclusively from midrange. So he doesn't qualify as a floor stretcher. If he isn't a floor stretcher, he must excel in rim protection, rebounding and finishing. And he must succeed without another guy with similar skillsets on the floor, because we can't afford to play two non shooting bigs together. Willie must develop into a defensive enforcer to have a future in this league. That's the rough truth.
Now of course we could add just another big to the mix and draft Ayton. Go ahead. At this point we would still have zero depth at the wings, while some of our young bigs would be permanently rooted to the bench, because there won't be enough minutes to play them all. We would still field only 4 guys able to shoot 3's on offense, making it tough for Ayton to use his size inside and the benefits of two bigs on offense, would come with disadvantages on defense, unless both of our guys could move and run like wings.
Over all the years I have been on Kingsfans.com I have been a believer in positionless basketball. I said time and time again, that there are reasons for certain trends and that following the trend might be the smart thing to do. As it stands now I still believe that. And I would prefer the Kings to finally make the reasonable decision to simply follow the trend, because let's be brutally honest - to break the trend is much more difficult and so far none of our FO or coaching guys has shown even close to the basketball knowledge to do that.
I think positionless basketball only works when you have the right players for the scheme. The Kings don't have any swiss army knives like Draymond so they're going to need to go about it differently, at least this year.
One of the main weaknesses of the team has been rebounding and lack of toughness. The KK/WCS lineup has done a lot to improve on that. They tied the Blazers in one game and got rebounded in the other but they took I think 19 more shots so the rebounding discrepancy was basically normal for a game like that. Yeah they've only played one team but I remember them competing better in games last year with the KK/WCS lineup. They had good chemistry and passed the ball well in the paint to each other.
It's not going to work against every team but I think WCS can guard guys like Ryno, LMA, Gibson etc well enough to justify the lineup. There really isn't anything else the Kings can do at this point. Jackson at the 4? The guy averages 3.3reb per36 and is as soft as it gets. There are no other real SF's on this team right now that have the size to move over to the 4 to compete with the positionless style the league has been shifting toward. There is no fix with this roster because there isn't a single full sized SF not named JaKarr and he probably wont play any meaningful minutes in the NBA until he can shoot the 3 ball.
One of the main weaknesses of the team has been rebounding and lack of toughness. The KK/WCS lineup has done a lot to improve on that. They tied the Blazers in one game and got rebounded in the other but they took I think 19 more shots so the rebounding discrepancy was basically normal for a game like that. Yeah they've only played one team but I remember them competing better in games last year with the KK/WCS lineup. They had good chemistry and passed the ball well in the paint to each other.
It's not going to work against every team but I think WCS can guard guys like Ryno, LMA, Gibson etc well enough to justify the lineup. There really isn't anything else the Kings can do at this point. Jackson at the 4? The guy averages 3.3reb per36 and is as soft as it gets. There are no other real SF's on this team right now that have the size to move over to the 4 to compete with the positionless style the league has been shifting toward. There is no fix with this roster because there isn't a single full sized SF not named JaKarr and he probably wont play any meaningful minutes in the NBA until he can shoot the 3 ball.
I think Willie needs the opportunity to see if he cam play the "Modern" PF position. The assumption seems to be that he cannot. But what if with some experience he can? He appears to have the mobility to stay with Draymond, Ryno and Blake. Perhaps he just needs some run to be allowed to learn the new role? He is going to make some mistakes but in time it may be found he is the unique seven footer who can flourish in the "modern" NBA at the PF spot? Maybe it is determined he can shoot the three?
Than you need to draft, trade or sign guys in FA, who are able to play positionless. J.Simmons or Jamychal Green were available.....
I know we can't change the past, but why did we draft WCS, Papa, Skal and Giles?
And even if Willie can guard players like Ryno or LMA, he will have a difficult time guarding the likes of D.Green, Aminu or Tatum. And while those guys provide maximum floor spacing for their teams, Willie shrinks the floor on offense. This basically leads to one team operating in space, while the other will have a difficult time finding lanes to the basket. Guess which team will be more efficient on offense?
Jackson is a bad rebounder right now. I agree. But this season is about development. Guys need to learn their positions, learn what's required out of them and adjust accordingly. Willie needs to learn, how to play as a big, while Jackson has to learn, what it means to play like a full sized wing. I mean guys like Tatum or Porter aren't built like tanks either and still do it.
I know we can't change the past, but why did we draft WCS, Papa, Skal and Giles?
And even if Willie can guard players like Ryno or LMA, he will have a difficult time guarding the likes of D.Green, Aminu or Tatum. And while those guys provide maximum floor spacing for their teams, Willie shrinks the floor on offense. This basically leads to one team operating in space, while the other will have a difficult time finding lanes to the basket. Guess which team will be more efficient on offense?
Jackson is a bad rebounder right now. I agree. But this season is about development. Guys need to learn their positions, learn what's required out of them and adjust accordingly. Willie needs to learn, how to play as a big, while Jackson has to learn, what it means to play like a full sized wing. I mean guys like Tatum or Porter aren't built like tanks either and still do it.
I think there is a distinct possibility Willie can guard Draymond if he is allowed to focus on that sort of thing. He cannot be all things for all people but he may be able to streamline his game and body to play PF in the "modern" game. There are guys his size playing that role all over the NBA. Now don't expect him to be able to guard Draymond one moment and Embiid the next. It takes a different physical type.
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I'm done with the Kings if they don't get a top 5 pick this year. Imo, this is the worst team in the NBA...like most years. If we land outside of top 5, I'm out. Would you rather pick from Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Porter Jr, or Bamba. OR would you rather pick from MSU Bridges, Villanova Bridges, Jackson, Carter Jr, or Sexton? Easy choice is group 1. This team is horrible right now. We don't have a franchise player as it stands..and we desperately need one.
While we may or may not be the worse team in the NBA right now, number one, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, and number two, that same team may be one of the better teams in the NBA in a couple of years. No, right now we don't know if we have a franchise player on the roster or not, but that doesn't mean we don't. That's what this year is all about. Trying to figure out whose who. Who do we want to keep, going forward. People make way too much out of how a player plays his rookie year.
Kobe averaged 7.6 ppg his rookie year. Ginoblili also averaged 7.6 ppg his rookie year. Kidd 11.7 ppg, Nowitzki 8.2 ppg, and was almost run out of Dallas. Nash 3.3 ppg and 2.1 apg his rookie year. His 2nd year wasn't much better at 9.1 ppg and 3.4 apg. How about his 3rd year at 7.9 ppg and 5.5 apg. Payton 7.2 ppg his rookie year and 9.4 ppg his 2nd year. Yeah I know I didn't post minutes per game etc. but my point is, on the surface, none of these players looked like world beaters their rookie year, and some looked like busts. But guess what, there were some franchise players there. On average, you just can't tell how good a player is going to be based solely on his rookie year. In many cases, it takes three or four years for a player to develop, or before the light goes on. Tracy McGrady looked like an average player statistically until his 4th year in the league and then suddenly he looked like a superstar.
What changed for McGrady? Well a friend, Unci03, told me of an interview he heard with McGrady, and he said that after McGrady got traded from Toronto he went out one game and exploded for 30 something points. McGrady said that after the game, he suddenly realized that hey, "I can do this"! The light went on and the rest was history. With some players the light goes on earlier than others, but you have to be patient. I'm sure that Toronto regrets that trade.
Kobe averaged 7.6 ppg his rookie year. Ginoblili also averaged 7.6 ppg his rookie year. Kidd 11.7 ppg, Nowitzki 8.2 ppg, and was almost run out of Dallas. Nash 3.3 ppg and 2.1 apg his rookie year. His 2nd year wasn't much better at 9.1 ppg and 3.4 apg. How about his 3rd year at 7.9 ppg and 5.5 apg. Payton 7.2 ppg his rookie year and 9.4 ppg his 2nd year. Yeah I know I didn't post minutes per game etc. but my point is, on the surface, none of these players looked like world beaters their rookie year, and some looked like busts. But guess what, there were some franchise players there. On average, you just can't tell how good a player is going to be based solely on his rookie year. In many cases, it takes three or four years for a player to develop, or before the light goes on. Tracy McGrady looked like an average player statistically until his 4th year in the league and then suddenly he looked like a superstar.
What changed for McGrady? Well a friend, Unci03, told me of an interview he heard with McGrady, and he said that after McGrady got traded from Toronto he went out one game and exploded for 30 something points. McGrady said that after the game, he suddenly realized that hey, "I can do this"! The light went on and the rest was history. With some players the light goes on earlier than others, but you have to be patient. I'm sure that Toronto regrets that trade.
7.6pts 1.8asts 1.2rebs
4.8pts 4.7rebs
8.8pts 2.9rebs
4.4pts 1.2rebs
Those are the rookie stats for Jimmer, T-Rob, McLemore, and Stauskas. I don't have proof of this correlation, but I have a feeling that most players who put up underwhelming numbers in their first 2 years don't become stars in the NBA. Fox and Skal are the closest things we have, but each have their own problems. Even you have to admit that if we're betting for Fox, Skal, or any of the young guys to emerge as a franchise player, then we're probably in deep crap. Maybe it's the lack of opportunity to showcase their entire arsenal because of the bs Joerger is trying to pull. Or, it could be that the young guys aren't good enough to warrant PT. I think it's a mix of both. I'd feel a lot more confident in labeling Ayton, Doncic, Porter Jr, and Bagley as our franchise player over any of the guys we currently have on the roster.
It's not as black and white as I make it out to be, but I'm just not as optimistic about our young guys as most fans are. Some of my bias from college scouting carries over, but I haven't really be wrong about any of them yet. I'm just a fan at home and it irks me that I've been more right about college prospects than a $400million franchise that pays guys to do these types of stuffs.
4.8pts 4.7rebs
8.8pts 2.9rebs
4.4pts 1.2rebs
Those are the rookie stats for Jimmer, T-Rob, McLemore, and Stauskas. I don't have proof of this correlation, but I have a feeling that most players who put up underwhelming numbers in their first 2 years don't become stars in the NBA. Fox and Skal are the closest things we have, but each have their own problems. Even you have to admit that if we're betting for Fox, Skal, or any of the young guys to emerge as a franchise player, then we're probably in deep crap. Maybe it's the lack of opportunity to showcase their entire arsenal because of the bs Joerger is trying to pull. Or, it could be that the young guys aren't good enough to warrant PT. I think it's a mix of both. I'd feel a lot more confident in labeling Ayton, Doncic, Porter Jr, and Bagley as our franchise player over any of the guys we currently have on the roster.
It's not as black and white as I make it out to be, but I'm just not as optimistic about our young guys as most fans are. Some of my bias from college scouting carries over, but I haven't really be wrong about any of them yet. I'm just a fan at home and it irks me that I've been more right about college prospects than a $400million franchise that pays guys to do these types of stuffs.
I don't even expect Willie to guard Embiid. The very few and select guys like Embiid are exactly the reason, why teams like the Celtics still pay guys like Baynes. For the Kings Papa could fill the role of a cheap, strong big off the bench, that is able to handle the bruisers if necessary.
And we have to keep in mind, that basketball isn't a 1vs1 sport anymore. Defending any star player is more of a team than an individual effort.
Let me once again shift the discussion to general playstyle issues. I watched the Pelicans vs the Thunder last night and once again came away with the impression, that doing things big means doing things the hard way in todays NBA.
The Thunder went full disrespect mode on Cousins and Davis playing a lineup of Westbrook/Robertson/George/Melo and Grant for some extended minutes against the two best bigs of the league. Jerami Grant, who would have been labeled a SF some years ago was guarding Cousins, while Melo was assigned to Davis. That's a 6'8 guy guarding a center not only 3 inches taller, but also about 40lbs heavier than him. You would expect total domination by Cousins right? There simply is no way Grant can guard him 1vs1.
To be honest at some point I was simply shaking my head in disbelieve. Over the minutes Grant was guarding Cousins the Pelicans managed to get their big man the ball on the low block once, which resulted in a nice pass out of the quick double to a cutting Holiday. That's it. Everything else were highly difficult drives from the outside or jumpshots. Let that sink in - the best center in the game is guarded by a wing and his team is completely unable to give him the ball close to the basket. A team featuring a PG, who is absolutely elite at reading defenses and throwing passes in tight spaces. The same goes for Davis. In a 1vs1 scenario old Melo has zero chance to stop Davis. But things aren't handled 1vs1.
Why had the Pel's so many difficulties to hit their bigs with passes inside? Because the Thunder doubled without the ball or as soon as Cousins or Davis were able to catch the entry and with their small but quick lineup were still able to contest 3 point shots or deflect the passes out of the double teams, while doing that.
The endresult: both Davis and Cousins hovered around the 3 point line, looking like absolute fools and making plays only by their unreal talent alone and not by good game design. On the other end the Thunder just exploited Cousins every single time in the pick&roll, getting wide open jumpshots at will.
Yes Cousins and Davis were still able to score against the smaller lineups, but the Thunder got so many deflections and made things so tough for the Pel's bigs, that I'm not sure, if it wasn't the best thing that could happen to the Pel's, that Cousins was ejected in the 3rd.
Suddenly things looked much smoother for the Pel's and Rondo was able to pick the Thunder defense apart. The smaller, quicker lineup without Cousins just looked way more comfortable.
Once again this wasn't a game to convince me of the benefits of playing two bigs alongside each other. And we are talking superstar bigs here not the likes of WCS and KK.
Of course some of it is related to the roster issues of the Pel's. Jrue is shooting around 25% from 3, Rondo is a non shooter and Cunningham seems to have lost the ability to hit corner 3's. But still - why spend a tremendous amount of salary on two superstar bigs, who in theory would be a great fit, when you simply can't take advantage of their size inside? Where is the benefit of Cousins jacking up 3's like a SF, when he poses a serious weakness in the pick&roll defense on the other end. Why not pair Davis with a good wing instead and follow the trend, instead of trying to forcefully break the trend?
Now for the Kings this means, that they should think long and hard, if they seriously want to follow a traditional roster blueprint and plan to play WCS as a PF. Even if they draft someone like Ayton, I still have a hard time to see the benefits of a two big lineup. WCS is not as skilled as Cousins or Davis and chances are he will never reach their level. Ayton might be a future unicorn player, but he is still around 7'1.
If I plan to play 4 out, which is what basically every NBA team does nowadays, Ayton would most likely be the guy taking 3's or driving it from the outside. And to be honest - I prefer the average NBA wing driving from the outside or shooting 3's over any guy around 7 foot. While it looks great, when those giants play like guards, it's usually not extremely effective and it's always a high risk play, just because typically those big guys are not that coordinated, dribble the ball higher and have a much more difficult time changing direction.
When a big guy puts it on the floor, guards and wings will have the advantage, no matter how skilled the big is.
I hope the Pelicans will make me eat crow, but I don't think we are at the brink of a power shift in the league, that starts a new era of big guys, even though the talent at the big man positions is sky high.
I honestly believe in todays league it's speed and skill > size and strenght and while having an all-star big is absolutely great, having only one big on the floor at the same time, makes things much easier on offense and defense.
Willie has all the tools to be the lone big and the great thing is, that he doesn't give the opponent an advantage in the pick&roll like Cousins or Drummond. A locked in WCS paired with fast and skilled players between 6'4 to 6'9 is a nightmare for any perimeter oriented offense. And even if teams have a rare inside presence like Embiid or Cousins, quick teams can make entry passes incredibly tough and risky.
And we have to keep in mind, that basketball isn't a 1vs1 sport anymore. Defending any star player is more of a team than an individual effort.
Let me once again shift the discussion to general playstyle issues. I watched the Pelicans vs the Thunder last night and once again came away with the impression, that doing things big means doing things the hard way in todays NBA.
The Thunder went full disrespect mode on Cousins and Davis playing a lineup of Westbrook/Robertson/George/Melo and Grant for some extended minutes against the two best bigs of the league. Jerami Grant, who would have been labeled a SF some years ago was guarding Cousins, while Melo was assigned to Davis. That's a 6'8 guy guarding a center not only 3 inches taller, but also about 40lbs heavier than him. You would expect total domination by Cousins right? There simply is no way Grant can guard him 1vs1.
To be honest at some point I was simply shaking my head in disbelieve. Over the minutes Grant was guarding Cousins the Pelicans managed to get their big man the ball on the low block once, which resulted in a nice pass out of the quick double to a cutting Holiday. That's it. Everything else were highly difficult drives from the outside or jumpshots. Let that sink in - the best center in the game is guarded by a wing and his team is completely unable to give him the ball close to the basket. A team featuring a PG, who is absolutely elite at reading defenses and throwing passes in tight spaces. The same goes for Davis. In a 1vs1 scenario old Melo has zero chance to stop Davis. But things aren't handled 1vs1.
Why had the Pel's so many difficulties to hit their bigs with passes inside? Because the Thunder doubled without the ball or as soon as Cousins or Davis were able to catch the entry and with their small but quick lineup were still able to contest 3 point shots or deflect the passes out of the double teams, while doing that.
The endresult: both Davis and Cousins hovered around the 3 point line, looking like absolute fools and making plays only by their unreal talent alone and not by good game design. On the other end the Thunder just exploited Cousins every single time in the pick&roll, getting wide open jumpshots at will.
Yes Cousins and Davis were still able to score against the smaller lineups, but the Thunder got so many deflections and made things so tough for the Pel's bigs, that I'm not sure, if it wasn't the best thing that could happen to the Pel's, that Cousins was ejected in the 3rd.
Suddenly things looked much smoother for the Pel's and Rondo was able to pick the Thunder defense apart. The smaller, quicker lineup without Cousins just looked way more comfortable.
Once again this wasn't a game to convince me of the benefits of playing two bigs alongside each other. And we are talking superstar bigs here not the likes of WCS and KK.
Of course some of it is related to the roster issues of the Pel's. Jrue is shooting around 25% from 3, Rondo is a non shooter and Cunningham seems to have lost the ability to hit corner 3's. But still - why spend a tremendous amount of salary on two superstar bigs, who in theory would be a great fit, when you simply can't take advantage of their size inside? Where is the benefit of Cousins jacking up 3's like a SF, when he poses a serious weakness in the pick&roll defense on the other end. Why not pair Davis with a good wing instead and follow the trend, instead of trying to forcefully break the trend?
Now for the Kings this means, that they should think long and hard, if they seriously want to follow a traditional roster blueprint and plan to play WCS as a PF. Even if they draft someone like Ayton, I still have a hard time to see the benefits of a two big lineup. WCS is not as skilled as Cousins or Davis and chances are he will never reach their level. Ayton might be a future unicorn player, but he is still around 7'1.
If I plan to play 4 out, which is what basically every NBA team does nowadays, Ayton would most likely be the guy taking 3's or driving it from the outside. And to be honest - I prefer the average NBA wing driving from the outside or shooting 3's over any guy around 7 foot. While it looks great, when those giants play like guards, it's usually not extremely effective and it's always a high risk play, just because typically those big guys are not that coordinated, dribble the ball higher and have a much more difficult time changing direction.
When a big guy puts it on the floor, guards and wings will have the advantage, no matter how skilled the big is.
I hope the Pelicans will make me eat crow, but I don't think we are at the brink of a power shift in the league, that starts a new era of big guys, even though the talent at the big man positions is sky high.
I honestly believe in todays league it's speed and skill > size and strenght and while having an all-star big is absolutely great, having only one big on the floor at the same time, makes things much easier on offense and defense.
Willie has all the tools to be the lone big and the great thing is, that he doesn't give the opponent an advantage in the pick&roll like Cousins or Drummond. A locked in WCS paired with fast and skilled players between 6'4 to 6'9 is a nightmare for any perimeter oriented offense. And even if teams have a rare inside presence like Embiid or Cousins, quick teams can make entry passes incredibly tough and risky.
Interesting observations for sure. I did not see the game. I did take a look at the game flow--> http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20171120&game=OKCNOR
My point is Willie may be mobile enough not to play like a traditional Big.
My point is Willie may be mobile enough not to play like a traditional Big.
