Kings Playoff Standings Watch!!!
- Thread starter Rain man
- Start date
This playoff race is going to be so nerve wracking.
We're done if we drop into the play-in. There's no way this team has the fight or focus to beat ANYONE scrapping for a playoff berth. I feel like we've lost every trap or "must win" type of game this season.
That being said, I'm pumped if we stay top 6. I feel like the team has already overachieved so much this year, so even if we don't make it past the first round, that playoff experience would make this the most successful season in 16 years and give everyone, from the players to coaching staff to Monte and the FO, something to build on for next year.
I'm gonna get more gray hairs in my beard before the season ends, but I can't understate how happy I am to not give a poo about lins or ping pong balls this year!
We're done if we drop into the play-in. There's no way this team has the fight or focus to beat ANYONE scrapping for a playoff berth. I feel like we've lost every trap or "must win" type of game this season.
That being said, I'm pumped if we stay top 6. I feel like the team has already overachieved so much this year, so even if we don't make it past the first round, that playoff experience would make this the most successful season in 16 years and give everyone, from the players to coaching staff to Monte and the FO, something to build on for next year.
I'm gonna get more gray hairs in my beard before the season ends, but I can't understate how happy I am to not give a poo about lins or ping pong balls this year!
I'm more disappointed by the slight rebound of Memphis, now on a 3-1 run. It seems almost inevitable that the Suns will pass us since they're not just getting Durant but getting a healthy Book back. They crushed the regular season last year and I expect they'll do it again going .800 or .900 down the stretch
Memphis has been slumping and I see as someone we could gain ground on. The Mavs will be a question mark. I think they'll underperform the regular season and overperform the playoffs. If Adams misses substantial time and Memphis falls off that makes our path to top 4 a lot easier (altho really top 6 I'd be ecstatic with)
Memphis has been slumping and I see as someone we could gain ground on. The Mavs will be a question mark. I think they'll underperform the regular season and overperform the playoffs. If Adams misses substantial time and Memphis falls off that makes our path to top 4 a lot easier (altho really top 6 I'd be ecstatic with)
If we somehow finish 4th (or even 5th) thinking some might be disappointed that we didn't catch Memphis or the Suns got healthy and passed us (pre-KD c'mon they kilt us we had no answer for Booker) is the biggest head scratcher to me and I am often told I am one of the most unrealistically optimistic fans here.
On the plus side, the Kings can make .500 for the season with just 9 more wins and 16 losses which was the season objective as far I was concerned beginning the season. On the minus side, 41 would be a pretty big disappointment in reality, and will almost certainly mean play-in at 8, 9, or 10. To be 6? I think the Kings will have to go 13-12 or better to have a decent chance at spot 6. Getting Monk back will help some, but there's just not enough consistency scoring-wise now from player 3 on. And they really need more scoring consistency from everyone outside Fox and Sabonis because gawd knows the defense is a pipe dream.
This isn't a science by any stetch, but looking at trends. Its pretty easy to identify with a team that's polar offensive/defensive. How much of the Kings poor shooting is attributed to opponent defense?, probably a good amount, but leaving that out to simplify the observations. Ideally, you want your scoring distribution to be as even as possible and play as many as possible, but that doesn't fall in line for quite a few reasons not the least of which is minutes distribution and performance. Kings have 6 players in double figures on average this season; pretty impressive.
To compete against the Suns (to try to win) yesterday (and any top 8 team) the Kings probably needed at least 4 of 5 starters scoring at a high level and 2 bench players. They got 3 starters competing at the needed level, with really no bench players this time around (Davis's mediocre doesn't cut it).. Go back to recent 6ers game you have 5 starters playing well BUT NO BENCH player - they got beat by a measly 2 pts. Back farther, Bucks? an exception, they had 5 starters plus 1 bench player scoring well, but still beaten by 13. Celtics - not close - 3 starters with only 1 bench player against a top 3 team. So against quality teams they need the full deck shooting to have a good chance at winning.
Looking at low level teams - the opposing teams lack of defense may skew the trend, allowing Kings to win on less, or allowing the Kings to score more easily so won't look at that. (Also the Kings have used up their candy-cane opponents already).
Now you go up a rung to the middle-of-the-pack (where Dallas is) say to their win over Mavs, they got 3 of 5 starters with 2 bench players which was enough to win in OT. One game earlier though, you have 4 starters and no bench and voila a loss. Lets check the Pelicans putrid game - no Fox and really none of the starters playing at a high level, and 2 bench players hence their worst blowout of the season. Fox wouldn't have mattered a lick. Pacers? Ok No Fox again, but 3 starters playing a high level, and 2 bench players, and they got nipped by 3pts. Fox playing to inject the offense with points probably would've logged the win.
To finish off the examples - TWolves win and loss - win - 3 starters and 2 bench players, and win by a moderate margin. Loss? 3 starters but only 1 bench player and lose by a moderate margin. And since Blazers next, let's look at the Kings 1st game loss to them - sure enough 3 starters and 1 bench player wasn't enough. Following all-star break, Kings will probably need 5 players minimum, but more likely 6 to key a win.
This is the scoring blueprint for a team that is terrible on defense. Really with 5 players, they have a decent shot against middle level teams, but they need 6 for the upper-mid-level teams, and 7 for top teams. And if they dont get what they need on offense, they get to Loserville. They must have their offense to offset their leaky and mostly pathetic defense with this personnel group this season. If they were a good or very-good defensive team, you'd probably be able to catch the Kings winning here and there with less players scoring well generally, but not in the cards this season. Definitely worth keeping all together, to see how that goes into next season regardless of finish.
This isn't a science by any stetch, but looking at trends. Its pretty easy to identify with a team that's polar offensive/defensive. How much of the Kings poor shooting is attributed to opponent defense?, probably a good amount, but leaving that out to simplify the observations. Ideally, you want your scoring distribution to be as even as possible and play as many as possible, but that doesn't fall in line for quite a few reasons not the least of which is minutes distribution and performance. Kings have 6 players in double figures on average this season; pretty impressive.
To compete against the Suns (to try to win) yesterday (and any top 8 team) the Kings probably needed at least 4 of 5 starters scoring at a high level and 2 bench players. They got 3 starters competing at the needed level, with really no bench players this time around (Davis's mediocre doesn't cut it).. Go back to recent 6ers game you have 5 starters playing well BUT NO BENCH player - they got beat by a measly 2 pts. Back farther, Bucks? an exception, they had 5 starters plus 1 bench player scoring well, but still beaten by 13. Celtics - not close - 3 starters with only 1 bench player against a top 3 team. So against quality teams they need the full deck shooting to have a good chance at winning.
Looking at low level teams - the opposing teams lack of defense may skew the trend, allowing Kings to win on less, or allowing the Kings to score more easily so won't look at that. (Also the Kings have used up their candy-cane opponents already).
Now you go up a rung to the middle-of-the-pack (where Dallas is) say to their win over Mavs, they got 3 of 5 starters with 2 bench players which was enough to win in OT. One game earlier though, you have 4 starters and no bench and voila a loss. Lets check the Pelicans putrid game - no Fox and really none of the starters playing at a high level, and 2 bench players hence their worst blowout of the season. Fox wouldn't have mattered a lick. Pacers? Ok No Fox again, but 3 starters playing a high level, and 2 bench players, and they got nipped by 3pts. Fox playing to inject the offense with points probably would've logged the win.
To finish off the examples - TWolves win and loss - win - 3 starters and 2 bench players, and win by a moderate margin. Loss? 3 starters but only 1 bench player and lose by a moderate margin. And since Blazers next, let's look at the Kings 1st game loss to them - sure enough 3 starters and 1 bench player wasn't enough. Following all-star break, Kings will probably need 5 players minimum, but more likely 6 to key a win.
This is the scoring blueprint for a team that is terrible on defense. Really with 5 players, they have a decent shot against middle level teams, but they need 6 for the upper-mid-level teams, and 7 for top teams. And if they dont get what they need on offense, they get to Loserville. They must have their offense to offset their leaky and mostly pathetic defense with this personnel group this season. If they were a good or very-good defensive team, you'd probably be able to catch the Kings winning here and there with less players scoring well generally, but not in the cards this season. Definitely worth keeping all together, to see how that goes into next season regardless of finish.
In terms of level of play, Memphis is much closer to Denver than Sacramento is to Memphis... we were never going to catch them up. That's just wishful thinking. Good teams in the league don't slump very often, but when they do, you'll see them bounce back just as quick.
In the West, here are the teams that I have as clearly better than the Kings.
1. Nuggets
2. Grizzlies
3. Suns
4. Clippers (they're currently only 1.5 games back despite injuries woes)
The Mavs are are a toss-up. I think we're equal. The T-Wolves are in the same column as us, but I think we're slightly better. We're better than the Pelicans, but Trey Murphy II is our kryptonite.
In the West, here are the teams that I have as clearly better than the Kings.
1. Nuggets
2. Grizzlies
3. Suns
4. Clippers (they're currently only 1.5 games back despite injuries woes)
The Mavs are are a toss-up. I think we're equal. The T-Wolves are in the same column as us, but I think we're slightly better. We're better than the Pelicans, but Trey Murphy II is our kryptonite.
I say a team's record is who they are. If a team has suffered through injuries, then they are an injury prone team and their record is deserved. If the Kings are in 3rd place, then they are currently the 3rd best team until they get overtaken.
The West scrambling to get players during the trade deadline did so because they are at risk of falling to the play-in or worse, not making the play-in (Lakers). Kings are not in that desperation mode. Moves were made to catch the top teams. Denver, Memphis and Kings made no moves or minimal impact moves because they're the ones being chased. If the Kings are a .500 team here on out, they're in good shape, considering much of their remaining will be head to head against teams chasing them.
The West scrambling to get players during the trade deadline did so because they are at risk of falling to the play-in or worse, not making the play-in (Lakers). Kings are not in that desperation mode. Moves were made to catch the top teams. Denver, Memphis and Kings made no moves or minimal impact moves because they're the ones being chased. If the Kings are a .500 team here on out, they're in good shape, considering much of their remaining will be head to head against teams chasing them.
Yeah, there's no reason to overthink this. If the Kings maintain the same win percentage they have right now over the last 25 games they'll be at 46 wins. I don't see Minnesota, New Orleans, OKC or Golden State catching them without a crazy hot streak and the rest of the West is currently below .500. There's three head-to-head matchups with Portland remaining so technically they have a chance to squeeze into the top 6 ahead of the Kings if they sweep. The real fight will be to keep the first round homecourt advantage
I think they’re something like 17-10 since mid-December. Outside of that 13 losses in 14 games stretch while they had injuries, they’ve been a good team this season.
TWolves fans are melting down over this loss too Lol. This loss hurts Minnesota even more because they now have just 8 home games and 13 road games for the rest of the season. Horrible home loss for them with that in mind. I consider Minnesota the biggest threat of any team in the play-in range to jump into the top 6 so this was a big loss in our favor.
TWolves fans are melting down over this loss too Lol. This loss hurts Minnesota even more because they now have just 8 home games and 13 road games for the rest of the season. Horrible home loss for them with that in mind. I consider Minnesota the biggest threat of any team in the play-in range to jump into the top 6 so this was a big loss in our favor.
So we've kind of made "45 wins" like somewhat the magic number to hold a top 6 slot. I'd be surprised if it's anything higher with how this season has played out. Here's where everyone would have finish to get there:
Sac: 25 games left:13-12
LAC: 21 games left:12-9
PHX: 22 games left: 13-10
DAL: 22 games left: 14-8
NOP: 23 games left: 15-8
MIN: 21 games left: 14-7
GSW: 24 games left: 15-9
OKC: 25 games left: 17-8
UTA: 22 games left: 16-6
POR: 24 games left: 17-7
LAL: 23 games left: 18-5
So outside of LAC and PHX, as long as we play .500 ball, it's going to be extremely tough for more than one other team to potentially catch us and knock us out a top 6. I could buy one of those teams popping off, but multiple? With how the West has played this year? Seems unlikely.
Honestly couldn't ask for a better test to close the season. Kings control their own fate on where they finish; they don't have to hope and pray for other teams to lose.
Sac: 25 games left:13-12
LAC: 21 games left:12-9
PHX: 22 games left: 13-10
DAL: 22 games left: 14-8
NOP: 23 games left: 15-8
MIN: 21 games left: 14-7
GSW: 24 games left: 15-9
OKC: 25 games left: 17-8
UTA: 22 games left: 16-6
POR: 24 games left: 17-7
LAL: 23 games left: 18-5
So outside of LAC and PHX, as long as we play .500 ball, it's going to be extremely tough for more than one other team to potentially catch us and knock us out a top 6. I could buy one of those teams popping off, but multiple? With how the West has played this year? Seems unlikely.
Honestly couldn't ask for a better test to close the season. Kings control their own fate on where they finish; they don't have to hope and pray for other teams to lose.