KINGS PICKING 4TH IN 2022 NBA DRAFT!

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I believe that one of the 3 of Holmgren, Smith or Banchero drops to 4. Between Ivey and or Sharpe, one, maybe both will jump up in the draft.

Out of the current universal top 3, I don’t believe Jabari Smith will drop from top 3 but I do believe that Holmgren will fall in the draft. Great length and skills, I think his frame and defense from some of the videos I’ve seen, can’t stay with quicker perimeter guys, may give pause to teams. I would pass on him.

I think we will have a choice between both Banchero and Murray potentially.
I think of the three, Holmgren is the most likely to fall. I think Banchero is the least likely to be there at 4.

I wasn't super high on Banchero a few months ago but rewatching some games and seeing his strong play to finish the season I've come around to where I think he's the best player in this class. Out of Holmgren, Smith Jr, and Banchero, Paolo is the only one that can impose his will on offense. Both Jabari and Chet take what the defense gives them. Smith Jr can rise up and get a shot off over almost anyone, but he's not really a guy that you clear out for and tell him to go get you a bucket. That's just not his game. At least not at this point in his very young career. Learning to create offense (and becoming a better finisher in the paint) will be a big part of Smith Jr's growth as a player.

Banchero is a first option on offense type player who ALSO has very good playmaking abilities. It's a big part of what makes him a better prospect to me than Keegan Murray. I also think his defensive woes are a bit overstated. In the times where he's locked in on defense he moves well laterally and contains his man well. Whether he'll buy in and be more significantly engaged on that end is a legitimate question. But if he is, he can not only be a decent defender, I think he can be a plus defender, though neither he nor Jabari are shot blockers/rim protectors. But they can be relatively switchable big wings on that end of the floor.

The thing with Holmgren is that even beyond the concerns about his body, even if he hits fully he's likely not a primary option on offense. He's a potentially elite rim protector who also does a little of everything else. He's a good rebounder, pick and roll finisher, pick and pop guy, good passer, good outside shooter, can handle a bit/grab and go, cuts well, finishes with touch inside etc but he's also not a guy that you just throw the ball to and tell him to go to work. At his best he's a versatile role player who anchors a defense.

Whether one of Holmgren, Smith Jr, or Banchero may fall also has to do with who is picking in slots 1-3. The Magic, Thunder, and Rockets are all pretty guard heavy. I'm not really sure which of them would covet Ivey or Sharpe. They're all also rebuilding so I'm not sure trading down or out of their pick makes much sense either. We'll see.

The other thing to consider when picking at 4 is we should be able to draft a guy who plays both sides of the ball. If the Ivey defense isn’t any good, the Kings have to pass on him.

For the forum guys who follow the prospects all year, who at the top plays both sides of the ball?
That is what we need. Not a one dimensional guy.
Here's how I see the players at the top in terms of defense:

Banchero - in the times he's engaged he is switchable and can contain most players on the perimeter. But he's often not engaged at all.

Smith Jr. - very engaged on defense. Rotates well, fights over screens, slides his feet well and overall gives great effort. Not a shotblocker as he lacks vertical pop, and he's a bit stiff hipped so really quick players can beat him. But overall he should be a very good defender in today's NBA

Holmgren - Elite shotblocker. Has great length, good vertical pop, and most of all really good timing and awareness. The big question is, if he falls to the Kings, can he guard on the perimeter when he shares the court with Sabonis. Evan Mobley made it work in Cleveland, but Holmgren isn't as quick laterally as Mobley, though he has even more length to help recover.

Ivey - Can be a really good on ball defender. Very quick, long, and relatively strong - puts pressure on the ball and can make plays in the passing lanes. Not super switchable, but he can likely guard either guard spot and some smaller wings. The issue is that as an off-ball defender his concentration drifts and he loses his man too easily and can die on screens.

Sharpe - Who knows? He looked capable guarding one on one but doesn't always make the right rotation and can be found ball watching. But the little bit of tape I've seen is from HS games. I don't think there's any way for us to know what kind of defender Sharpe is or could be at this point.

Keegan Murray - Gives good effort on defense, and generally knows where to be on that end of the floor. He's not overly quick and he doesn't have tremendous instincts but he clearly knows his role in the defensive scheme. He's work well for a coach like Brown. I don't think he's a defensive stopper in the NBA, but he can be part of a good team defense.

Jalen Duran - Strong, athletic interior defender with a 7'6" wingspan. You don't really want him switching on to quick guards all the time but he can show and not get killed.

Johnny Davis - A bit undersized and lean and not a great athlete, but plays defense with a lot of effort and intensity.

Mathurin - Kind of the opposite of Davis. Strong and athletic but just doesn't put a lot of effort on defense. There's potential there, but that's true of a lot of athletic players that enter the league. Not a lot of them become great defenders.

Dyson Daniels - I haven't seen enough of him to feel confident in my assessment but he appears to give good effort with good size to defend 1-3.

Tari Eason - I love Eason. He's got good size and length (6'8" with a 7'2" wingspan) but he also moves like a guard. Very aggressive defender who can get steals and blocks and turn them into offense. Big, strong hands. A few times this year he's wrapped up or stripped driving players with one hand. Has a great motor. The downsides with Eason on defense is that he can be over agressive and rack up fouls and while he plays hard, he's not always in the right position. Brown would probably also be a good coach for him. The bigger issue is if he can get consistent with his funky shot and adjust to a lower usage rate as well as learn to take care of the ball better. He reminds me a bit of a better version of Paul Reed, who I also liked coming out of college.

Jeremy Sochan - Defense is his best attribute. Big, tough, long, and quick he's very switchable. He can defend on the perimeter or in the paint. He's good on the ball, off the ball, and as a help defender. He's not a shotblocker but otherwise he's about as complete a defender as you'll see for a 19 year old. He's also a good rebounder, ballhandler and playmaker. The big question with Sochan is if he'll be able to develop a consistent shot. He was under 30% from three and under 60% from the FT line. That makes me very nervous.

AJ Griffin - I'm lower on Griffin than most. And while he seems like with his size/length, strength and athleticism he should be a good defender, he seemd to get beat a lot when I watched him. Part of it was not being consistently alert, but he also seemed to get beat more often than he should and took poor angles to the ball.
 
I am really hoping the Magic see the Suggs-Holmgren connection as a thing that makes Chet the #1 overall. Otherwise I think they pick Jabari.

That said OKC and HOU are both locked in on the 2023 lottery I imagine, they are retaining their tank coach staffs and appear to be full on committed so I see them most inclined to gamble on potential rather than the plug and play guy. I have a hard time seeing Chet fall for that reason. It's also why I think there's a very small chance Jabari could fall to us if the Magic pick Chet.
 

dude12

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I think of the three, Holmgren is the most likely to fall. I think Banchero is the least likely to be there at 4.

I wasn't super high on Banchero a few months ago but rewatching some games and seeing his strong play to finish the season I've come around to where I think he's the best player in this class. Out of Holmgren, Smith Jr, and Banchero, Paolo is the only one that can impose his will on offense. Both Jabari and Chet take what the defense gives them. Smith Jr can rise up and get a shot off over almost anyone, but he's not really a guy that you clear out for and tell him to go get you a bucket. That's just not his game. At least not at this point in his very young career. Learning to create offense (and becoming a better finisher in the paint) will be a big part of Smith Jr's growth as a player.

Banchero is a first option on offense type player who ALSO has very good playmaking abilities. It's a big part of what makes him a better prospect to me than Keegan Murray. I also think his defensive woes are a bit overstated. In the times where he's locked in on defense he moves well laterally and contains his man well. Whether he'll buy in and be more significantly engaged on that end is a legitimate question. But if he is, he can not only be a decent defender, I think he can be a plus defender, though neither he nor Jabari are shot blockers/rim protectors. But they can be relatively switchable big wings on that end of the floor.

The thing with Holmgren is that even beyond the concerns about his body, even if he hits fully he's likely not a primary option on offense. He's a potentially elite rim protector who also does a little of everything else. He's a good rebounder, pick and roll finisher, pick and pop guy, good passer, good outside shooter, can handle a bit/grab and go, cuts well, finishes with touch inside etc but he's also not a guy that you just throw the ball to and tell him to go to work. At his best he's a versatile role player who anchors a defense.

Whether one of Holmgren, Smith Jr, or Banchero may fall also has to do with who is picking in slots 1-3. The Magic, Thunder, and Rockets are all pretty guard heavy. I'm not really sure which of them would covet Ivey or Sharpe. They're all also rebuilding so I'm not sure trading down or out of their pick makes much sense either. We'll see.



Here's how I see the players at the top in terms of defense:

Banchero - in the times he's engaged he is switchable and can contain most players on the perimeter. But he's often not engaged at all.

Smith Jr. - very engaged on defense. Rotates well, fights over screens, slides his feet well and overall gives great effort. Not a shotblocker as he lacks vertical pop, and he's a bit stiff hipped so really quick players can beat him. But overall he should be a very good defender in today's NBA

Holmgren - Elite shotblocker. Has great length, good vertical pop, and most of all really good timing and awareness. The big question is, if he falls to the Kings, can he guard on the perimeter when he shares the court with Sabonis. Evan Mobley made it work in Cleveland, but Holmgren isn't as quick laterally as Mobley, though he has even more length to help recover.

Ivey - Can be a really good on ball defender. Very quick, long, and relatively strong - puts pressure on the ball and can make plays in the passing lanes. Not super switchable, but he can likely guard either guard spot and some smaller wings. The issue is that as an off-ball defender his concentration drifts and he loses his man too easily and can die on screens.

Sharpe - Who knows? He looked capable guarding one on one but doesn't always make the right rotation and can be found ball watching. But the little bit of tape I've seen is from HS games. I don't think there's any way for us to know what kind of defender Sharpe is or could be at this point.

Keegan Murray - Gives good effort on defense, and generally knows where to be on that end of the floor. He's not overly quick and he doesn't have tremendous instincts but he clearly knows his role in the defensive scheme. He's work well for a coach like Brown. I don't think he's a defensive stopper in the NBA, but he can be part of a good team defense.

Jalen Duran - Strong, athletic interior defender with a 7'6" wingspan. You don't really want him switching on to quick guards all the time but he can show and not get killed.

Johnny Davis - A bit undersized and lean and not a great athlete, but plays defense with a lot of effort and intensity.

Mathurin - Kind of the opposite of Davis. Strong and athletic but just doesn't put a lot of effort on defense. There's potential there, but that's true of a lot of athletic players that enter the league. Not a lot of them become great defenders.

Dyson Daniels - I haven't seen enough of him to feel confident in my assessment but he appears to give good effort with good size to defend 1-3.

Tari Eason - I love Eason. He's got good size and length (6'8" with a 7'2" wingspan) but he also moves like a guard. Very aggressive defender who can get steals and blocks and turn them into offense. Big, strong hands. A few times this year he's wrapped up or stripped driving players with one hand. Has a great motor. The downsides with Eason on defense is that he can be over agressive and rack up fouls and while he plays hard, he's not always in the right position. Brown would probably also be a good coach for him. The bigger issue is if he can get consistent with his funky shot and adjust to a lower usage rate as well as learn to take care of the ball better. He reminds me a bit of a better version of Paul Reed, who I also liked coming out of college.

Jeremy Sochan - Defense is his best attribute. Big, tough, long, and quick he's very switchable. He can defend on the perimeter or in the paint. He's good on the ball, off the ball, and as a help defender. He's not a shotblocker but otherwise he's about as complete a defender as you'll see for a 19 year old. He's also a good rebounder, ballhandler and playmaker. The big question with Sochan is if he'll be able to develop a consistent shot. He was under 30% from three and under 60% from the FT line. That makes me very nervous.

AJ Griffin - I'm lower on Griffin than most. And while he seems like with his size/length, strength and athleticism he should be a good defender, he seemd to get beat a lot when I watched him. Part of it was not being consistently alert, but he also seemed to get beat more often than he should and took poor angles to the ball.
Thanks for the breakdowns….and good call on the 3 teams ahead of us in regards to being guard heavy. It does take just 1 of these teams to fall in love with Ivey or Sharpe though……AND we need someone to jump on Holmgren. I see him as being a poor switchable defender on the perimeter. Don’t want him. I’d be stoked with Murray, Banchero or Smith.

I also wouldn’t be opposed to a small trade down as long as the piece we are getting to make this happen is well worth it….but teams don’t trade out of a 4 deep draft when your the 4th pick.
 
Thanks for the breakdowns….and good call on the 3 teams ahead of us in regards to being guard heavy. It does take just 1 of these teams to fall in love with Ivey or Sharpe though……AND we need someone to jump on Holmgren. I see him as being a poor switchable defender on the perimeter. Don’t want him. I’d be stoked with Murray, Banchero or Smith.

I also wouldn’t be opposed to a small trade down as long as the piece we are getting to make this happen is well worth it….but teams don’t trade out of a 4 deep draft when your the 4th pick.
With all the talk of Sharpe and Ivey possibly moving up, it's starting to sound like a 6 deep draft. Wouldn't you think?
 
Shaedon Sharpe interview: He's 18 and sounds lot like Michael Jordan with his deep voice. Also, same height and weight as Jordan when he was age 18. Also, like Jordan does not lack in confidence with personable demeanor. The kid has it all it seems but still a mystery in many ways. Worth the risk?
 
Shaedon Sharpe interview: He's 18 and sounds lot like Michael Jordan with his deep voice. Also, same height and weight as Jordan when he was age 18. Also, like Jordan does not lack in confidence with personable demeanor. The kid has it all it seems but still a mystery in many ways. Worth the risk?
There’s a good chance he goes top 3, imo. If he played at Kentucky and played well, he’d be the #1 pick. That’s his talent level. The only reason he might even be an option for us is because he didn’t play at all. What does that say about a guy? Didn’t play at all for a year and is most likely, at worst, going top 6-7.
 
Shaedon Sharpe interview: He's 18 and sounds lot like Michael Jordan with his deep voice. Also, same height and weight as Jordan when he was age 18. Also, like Jordan does not lack in confidence with personable demeanor. The kid has it all it seems but still a mystery in many ways. Worth the risk?
I mentioned this in another thread, but Sharpe gives me less concern about his bust potential because he's not a kid who dominated based on being a physical speciman or otherworldly athlete. He has good size for the SG spot and is definitely a plus athlete even at the NBA level, but his game is really skill based. His best attributes are his ability to create space for his shot (which looks good mechanically and is consistent) and his secondary playmaking. There's so much we don't know about him, but if I were forced to pick which top 10 players from this draft will flame out, he wouldn't be one I'd choose.

I think there's a high chance he's a useful NBA player and a significant chance that he's a very good one.
 
I mentioned this in another thread, but Sharpe gives me less concern about his bust potential because he's not a kid who dominated based on being a physical speciman or otherworldly athlete. He has good size for the SG spot and is definitely a plus athlete even at the NBA level, but his game is really skill based. His best attributes are his ability to create space for his shot (which looks good mechanically and is consistent) and his secondary playmaking. There's so much we don't know about him, but if I were forced to pick which top 10 players from this draft will flame out, he wouldn't be one I'd choose.

I think there's a high chance he's a useful NBA player and a significant chance that he's a very good one.
Yeah, it's just hard to have an opinion on Sharpe. While with Ivey, Murray, we have a bevy of film to work with and college stats, we're just guessing off archetype with Sharpe. Perfectly fine if they decide he's the route and impresses in interviews/workouts; it's just something we won't have access to and there's not a clear choice at 4.

One added bonus of Sharpe is it likely means we're going to have some stability with Monte being here longer than just this season. I think there's just no chance he'd draft him as a prospect who likely is going to have a steep learning curve in the NBA and take some time to develop if he was on the chopping block. Especially when Murray/Ivey I anticipate being right there for ROY consideration.
 
Im still satisfied with Murray at #4 is Smith or Holmgren dont drop but Bonchero and Ivey dont do it for me. Boncheronis an impressive specimen physically but he cant shoot well and doesnt seem to want to defend. People keep comparing Ivey to Ja. His numbers in college DO NOT compare with Ja. Ja was a better shooter, scorer and passer (significantly more assists). The guy at G average ls 3 assist. He is a poor outside shooter and he doesnt want to defend either. The motor is score and score now, but he will not have same ease in the league.

Additionally with Fox/Ox and Mike Brown in place does anyone of Ivey's supporters think he can help get this team into the playoffs? What has the clamoring been for the last year or so? Get a stretch 4 who plays D and protects the rim. That is literally Murray. That is exactly who/what he is. Now additional he can push the ball in transition (one of the NCAA leaders in that category) and while he is not supremely athletic, he is strong and skilled and crafty around the rim.

Smith>Holmgren > Murray for me
 
Yeah, it's just hard to have an opinion on Sharpe. While with Ivey, Murray, we have a bevy of film to work with and college stats, we're just guessing off archetype with Sharpe. Perfectly fine if they decide he's the route and impresses in interviews/workouts; it's just something we won't have access to and there's not a clear choice at 4.

One added bonus of Sharpe is it likely means we're going to have some stability with Monte being here longer than just this season. I think there's just no chance he'd draft him as a prospect who likely is going to have a steep learning curve in the NBA and take some time to develop if he was on the chopping block. Especially when Murray/Ivey I anticipate being right there for ROY consideration.
Yeah, the appeal of Sharpe is the same as the concern - there's just so much we don't know. He could be a #1 overall talent that the Kings land at #4 or a kid that takes a long time to adjust to the speed of the NBA game and tops out as an average SG. If he's the pick I will just have to trust that McNair and team saw and heard enough to be convinced.

That said, if McNair is going into the season without an extension I think it makes Sharpe very unlikely. The inference would be that he's out as GM if the Kings don't make the playoffs and Sharpe likely doesn't provide as much immediate impact as say, Keegan Murray. Again, why I don't like the idea of lame duck GMs. Coaches can make short term moves. Front offices should be thinking long term and that's hard to do if you job is always on the line.
 
Think about all the different scenarios for the Kings next season:

Draft Murray, is Midwest Siakam
Draft Murray, is poor man’s TJ Warren
Draft Ivey, is poor man’s Ja Morant
Draft Ivey, poor mans Ja, Fox averages 19 points on 28 percent shooting
Draft Ivey, is a Ja imposter just like Morant’s Dad is an Usher imposter
Trade pick
Draft some other person no one saw coming.

if we are winning next year it won’t matter as much but if we are losing the forum is going to be a cesspool haha
I think you have to at a minimum have a draft Sharpe scenario.
 
Im still satisfied with Murray at #4 is Smith or Holmgren dont drop but Bonchero and Ivey dont do it for me. Boncheronis an impressive specimen physically but he cant shoot well and doesnt seem to want to defend. People keep comparing Ivey to Ja. His numbers in college DO NOT compare with Ja. Ja was a better shooter, scorer and passer (significantly more assists). The guy at G average ls 3 assist. He is a poor outside shooter and he doesnt want to defend either. The motor is score and score now, but he will not have same ease in the league.

Additionally with Fox/Ox and Mike Brown in place does anyone of Ivey's supporters think he can help get this team into the playoffs? What has the clamoring been for the last year or so? Get a stretch 4 who plays D and protects the rim. That is literally Murray. That is exactly who/what he is. Now additional he can push the ball in transition (one of the NCAA leaders in that category) and while he is not supremely athletic, he is strong and skilled and crafty around the rim.

Smith>Holmgren > Murray for me
I think Banchero is the best prospect in this draft. And that's after not being very high on him months ago. He shot 34% from three on 3.3 attempts per game so it's not like his outside shot is non-existent. He showed flashes of being a very good defender but yeah, there were times where he seemed to give no effort at all on that end. So that's a concern. But of the top picks, he and Ivey are the only ones that can impose their will on a defense and Paolo also has some enticing playmaking ability.

As for Ivey, my biggest concern is that he's not a lead guard. He's definitely not Morant or pre-injury Derrick Rose. He's much more like Zach LaVine or Victor Oladipo. That doesn't mean he can't be a good player, but IMO it limits his upside if he's a smallish SG vs a big PG. I do think the concerns about his shooting are a bit overblown. He shot 36% on decent volume (5 per game I believe) and he had a decent FT%. He's also a good defender when engaged and guarding the ball. It's just that he tends to drift as an off ball defender. That's not uncommon for young players.

But as a rim attacking SG who can shoot but doesn't really stretch the floor he's not an ideal fit with Fox. But Fox also hasn't shownt that he's a franchise cornerstone. So you don't pass up a potential all-star because of fit concerns. I just don't know that Ivey has all-star potential. I think he's got low bust potential and should be a good player, I just don't know if he's good enough to transform a franchise. We'll see.
 
Interesting list. Other than Griffin (who I'm admittedly not as high on as most) I really like that group of players.

And it's not like I hate Griffin as a prospect. But I wasn't big on the idea of taking him at 7 or 8 so I'd be really disappointed if the Kings took him at 4.

Those kids are also all over the draft board, at least the way most mocks are today.

Sharpe is top 5, Griffin is top 10, Eason is currently late lottery, Brown is in the 20's, Moore and Smith are late 1st/early 2nd and Williams is mid to late 2nd.
 
Interesting list. Other than Griffin (who I'm admittedly not as high on as most) I really like that group of players.

And it's not like I hate Griffin as a prospect. But I wasn't big on the idea of taking him at 7 or 8 so I'd be really disappointed if the Kings took him at 4.

Those kids are also all over the draft board, at least the way most mocks are today.

Sharpe is top 5, Griffin is top 10, Eason is currently late lottery, Brown is in the 20's, Moore and Smith are late 1st/early 2nd and Williams is mid to late 2nd.
Yeah, I think the biggest takeaway is the wing priority.
 
Interesting list. Other than Griffin (who I'm admittedly not as high on as most) I really like that group of players.

And it's not like I hate Griffin as a prospect. But I wasn't big on the idea of taking him at 7 or 8 so I'd be really disappointed if the Kings took him at 4.

Those kids are also all over the draft board, at least the way most mocks are today.

Sharpe is top 5, Griffin is top 10, Eason is currently late lottery, Brown is in the 20's, Moore and Smith are late 1st/early 2nd and Williams is mid to late 2nd.
Which is a good group to look at if you're interesting in moving down.
 
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