Kings/Pacers/Celtics deal

[Smills91]

Kings/Pacers/Celtics

Boston deals:
Wally Szczerbiak
Theo Ratliff
Al Jefferson
2007 2nd round pick

Boston receives:
Jermaine O'Neal
Kenny Thomas

Indiana trades:
Jermaine O'Neal
Maceo Baston

Indiana receives:
Theo Ratliff
Kevin Martin
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Boston 2007 2nd round pick

Sacramento trades:
Kenny Thomas
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Kevin Martin

Sacramento receives:
Wally Szczerbiak
Al Jefferson
Maceo Baston

Celtic line-up:
C: Jermaine O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins
PF: Kenny Thomas, Leon Powe, Brian Scalabrine
SF: Paul Pierce, Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen
SG: Gerald Green, Allan Ray
PG: Delonte West, Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair


Boston can use their (top 5) pick on Oden/Durant/Horford/Wright/Hawes/Hibbert type of player which could move Jermaine down to his more natural 4 spot.

Pacers line-up:

C: Jeff Foster, Theo Ratliff, David Harrison
PF: Ike Diogu, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Troy Murphy
SF: Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Shawne Williams
SG: Kevin Martin, Marquis Daniels
PG: Jamaal Tinsley, Darrel Armstrong, Orien Greene

With the Pacers 2nd round pick via Boston they could add cheap depth at the 2 guard spot by perhaps looking at a player like Aaron Afflalo or a player of that ilk with pick #32. Perhaps even a PG type if they're unhappy with their rotation there.

Kings line-up:
C: Brad Miller, Justin Williams
PF: Al Jefferson, Maceo Baston
SF: Ron Artest, Wally Szczerbiak
SG: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, Quincy Douby
PG: Mike Bibby, Ronnie Price

Kings with a top 10 pick could look at someone like Roy Hibbert, Spencer Hawes, Joakim Noah, Tiago Splitter or even an Acie Law, Corey Brewer type of player to fill out their roster

 

[Big Cuz 15]

not thrilled with that roster.. imo, we need to clean out the roster and start over basically with a great young piece to build around. your trade idea just brings us mediocre to good players while giving away our best asset.

Kings/Pacers/Celtics

Boston deals:
Wally Szczerbiak
Theo Ratliff
Al Jefferson
2007 2nd round pick

Boston receives:
Jermaine O'Neal
Kenny Thomas

Indiana trades:
Jermaine O'Neal
Maceo Baston

Indiana receives:
Theo Ratliff
Kevin Martin
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Boston 2007 2nd round pick

Sacramento trades:
Kenny Thomas
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Kevin Martin

Sacramento receives:
Wally Szczerbiak
Al Jefferson
Maceo Baston

Celtic line-up:
C: Jermaine O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins
PF: Kenny Thomas, Leon Powe, Brian Scalabrine
SF: Paul Pierce, Ryan Gomes, Tony Allen
SG: Gerald Green, Allan Ray
PG: Delonte West, Rajon Rondo, Sebastian Telfair


Boston can use their (top 5) pick on Oden/Durant/Horford/Wright/Hawes/Hibbert type of player which could move Jermaine down to his more natural 4 spot.

Pacers line-up:

C: Jeff Foster, Theo Ratliff, David Harrison
PF: Ike Diogu, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Troy Murphy
SF: Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Shawne Williams
SG: Kevin Martin, Marquis Daniels
PG: Jamaal Tinsley, Darrel Armstrong, Orien Greene

With the Pacers 2nd round pick via Boston they could add cheap depth at the 2 guard spot by perhaps looking at a player like Aaron Afflalo or a player of that ilk with pick #32. Perhaps even a PG type if they're unhappy with their rotation there.

Kings line-up:
C: Brad Miller, Justin Williams
PF: Al Jefferson, Maceo Baston
SF: Ron Artest, Wally Szczerbiak
SG: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, Quincy Douby
PG: Mike Bibby, Ronnie Price

Kings with a top 10 pick could look at someone like Roy Hibbert, Spencer Hawes, Joakim Noah, Tiago Splitter or even an Acie Law, Corey Brewer type of player to fill out their roster

 

[LPKingsFan]

Right. I know from your posts at realgm that the premise of this deal is to get a solid veteran big man, but I think that's not the direction this team is going in. We don't need a solid veteran, but a young big that could be the cornerstone of this franchise. If anything, we should be shipping our veterans for a higher or additional picks in order to ensure a better shot at a bright future. While Jefferson would be a nice piece, it would be best to try to get him to play with Martin, not for Martin. Would rather build around our draft pick big man and Martin, than retain our tired core of declining vets.

 

[Smills91]

Right. I know from your posts at realgm that the premise of this deal is to get a solid veteran big man, but I think that's not the direction this team is going in. We don't need a solid veteran, but a young big that could be the cornerstone of this franchise. If anything, we should be shipping our veterans for a higher or additional picks in order to ensure a better shot at a bright future. While Jefferson would be a nice piece, it would be best to try to get him to play with Martin, not for Martin. Would rather build around our draft pick big man and Martin, than retain our tired core of declining vets.

I'm changing out Kevin Martin for Al Jefferson...and shedding off 14 million and a year off of Kenny's/Sar's deal. This would also open up a potential Artest move. We'd still have our pick and Petrie could replace Martin with Corey Brewer. Rather than reach with a guy like Noah/Splitter/Hawes.

I'd say it comes down to opportunity cost. Yes, I love Kevin Martin, but he has the BEST trade value...who's gonna give a young stud PF/C type for our vets? Noone...if we fill the piece we need, get a new coach and replace Martin(2 guard's are a dime a dozen) then we'll be better off than attempting to rebuild around Martin.

Martin is our best trading chip at this point.

 

[fnordius]

Al Jefferson is barely a veteran, the guy's only 22, although he will want a big pay raise in a year when his rookie contract ends. The others I get a lot less excited about. Wally World: 30, and frequently injured, contract through '09. Baston: 31, and the guy that was used in Justin Williams' predraft comparisons as "worst case." He languished in places like Tel Aviv for years, we could have picked him up any time from 2003 until last summer as a freebie.

So what we're really looking at is trading a productive vet (SAR) and an unproductive one (KT) plus a very promising young player (Kevin) for: a productive (when not injured) vet, a less than exciting vet, and a promising young PF/C. Our team gets older, but we unload KT, but Wally's contract is at least as long as KT's (KT is PO in '08, WS's lasts until '09). So in many ways, it is a wash. I know that trades are supposed to be even, but I'm unclear on how it improves the team. It helps our D and hurts our offense, but are we even trying to go in that direction anymore? Do we want Artest and Bibby to be our big scorers? I dunno, it seems kind of like a band aid. Some old problems go away, some new ones appear, and we don't rebuild. We could get to a similar place just by drafting a good PF/C.

So I'm not hating this trade or anything, but I don't see it taking us to where I want to go, which is ignoring the present and rebuilding around young players.

 

[Smills91]

Al Jefferson is barely a veteran, the guy's only 22, although he will want a big pay raise in a year when his rookie contract ends. The others I get a lot less excited about. Wally World: 30, and frequently injured, contract through '09. Baston: 31, and the guy that was used in Justin Williams' predraft comparisons as "worst case." He languished in places like Tel Aviv for years, we could have picked him up any time from 2003 until last summer as a freebie.

So what we're really looking at is trading a productive vet (SAR) and an unproductive one (KT) plus a very promising young player (Kevin) for: a productive (when not injured) vet, a less than exciting vet, and a promising young PF/C. Our team gets older, but we unload KT, but Wally's contract is at least as long as KT's (KT is PO in '08, WS's lasts until '09). So in many ways, it is a wash. I know that trades are supposed to be even, but I'm unclear on how it improves the team. It helps our D and hurts our offense, but are we even trying to go in that direction anymore? Do we want Artest and Bibby to be our big scorers? I dunno, it seems kind of like a band aid. Some old problems go away, some new ones appear, and we don't rebuild. We could get to a similar place just by drafting a good PF/C.

So I'm not hating this trade or anything, but I don't see it taking us to where I want to go, which is ignoring the present and rebuilding around young players.

I explained above, but have to correct one thing...there's no way in HELL Kenny uses his player option. He and SAR have 3 years left, while Wally has 2 years left. I'm not a huge Wally fan, but his shooting off the bench could be useful...but trading a 2 guard(where we already have Salmons/Garcia/Douby) for a Power Forward/Center type is huge for us. The learning curve for bigs is greater, so IMO he'd have an even bigger impact on the game in 2-3 years. We can replace Martin in the draft with Brewer and look like this:

C: Brad MIller, Justin Williams
PF: Al Jefferson, Corliss Williamson, Maceo Baston
SF: Ron Artest, Wally Szczerbiak
SG: Corey Brewer, Francisco Garcia, Quincy Douby
PG: Mike Bibby, John Salmons, Ronnie Price

 

[Heuge]

In a heartbeat.

 

[tjobrien]

GREAT trade Smills. These dudes do not know what they are talking about.

Al Jefferson = Elton Brand.

And if you don't believe me, read this:

Player A: 20.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 53.1-percent shooting
Player B: 19.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 54.7-percent shooting

Player A is Elton Brand. Player B is Al Jefferson since the All-Star break. Kevin Martin is a nice player, but some here really need to remove the purple-colored glasses on the guy. He is streaky, he's often not aggressive for long stretches, and his defense...um...leaves much to be desired.

Al Jefferson is 22 yrs old and a perennial all-star in the making. Taking him prevents us from gambling on one of the bigs in the draft (Hibbert, Hawes, etc) and taking a very good swingman (Brewer if he falls to us, which I doubt...or Green) or perhaps one of the PGs (but it seems like most of them are staying - Conley, Lawson, we'll see about Collison).

Yes, Wally is often injured. But he's still a very good player and I believe an expiring contract.

The real issue with this trade is I don't see the Celtics making it. Not in a million years. Not for Jermaine O'Neal, who is almost 29 years old and has missed nearly 80 games combined the last 3 seasons.

If you somehow drugged Danny Ainge into giving up Jefferson, the Kings SHOULD jump at this in a second. It is a no brainer.

 

[Smills91]

GREAT trade Smills. These dudes do not know what they are talking about.

Al Jefferson = Elton Brand.

And if you don't believe me, read this:

Player A: 20.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 53.1-percent shooting
Player B: 19.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 54.7-percent shooting

Player A is Elton Brand. Player B is Al Jefferson since the All-Star break. Kevin Martin is a nice player, but some here really need to remove the purple-colored glasses on the guy. He is streaky, he's often not aggressive for long stretches, and his defense...um...leaves much to be desired.

Al Jefferson is 22 yrs old and a perennial all-star in the making. Taking him prevents us from gambling on one of the bigs in the draft (Hibbert, Hawes, etc) and taking a very good swingman (Brewer if he falls to us, which I doubt...or Green) or perhaps one of the PGs (but it seems like most of them are staying - Conley, Lawson, we'll see about Collison).

Yes, Wally is often injured. But he's still a very good player and I believe an expiring contract.

The real issue with this trade is I don't see the Celtics making it. Not in a million years. Not for Jermaine O'Neal, who is almost 29 years old and has missed nearly 80 games combined the last 3 seasons.

If you somehow drugged Danny Ainge into giving up Jefferson, the Kings SHOULD jump at this in a second. It is a no brainer.

My opinion is this deal favors Boston more than anyone else. JO makes them contenders in the East with Pierce. PLUS they'd add a top 3-4 pick potentially to the mix. They'd have a good mix of youth and vets and could be the darlings of the East for years to come. I think you're overrating AL Jefferson a little bit. I think Kevin MArtin is the better player overall, but that the size upgrade evens things out between the two players.

 

[fnordius]

GREAT trade Smills. These dudes do not know what they are talking about...
Yes, Wally is often injured. But he's still a very good player and I believe an expiring contract.

As I pointed out, Wally's contract runs through '09. You might want to do a little fact checking before you say that other people don't know what they're talking about.

 

[Smills91]

As I pointed out, Wally's contract runs through '09. You might want to do a little fact checking before you say that other people don't know what they're talking about.

You were also assuming that Kenny would exercise his player option in 08 which will not happen. cut him some slack. Wally's contract > Reef/KT contract's.

 

[nbrans]

I don't see why Boston would trade Jefferson, a very high and valuable 2nd round pick, and a valuable expiring contract for Jermaine O'Neal, especially with Kenny Thomas coming along for the ride. Why wouldn't they just keep Jefferson and use Ratliff's expiring to try and get another good player?

 

[Smills91]

I don't see why Boston would trade Jefferson, a very high and valuable 2nd round pick, and a valuable expiring contract for Jermaine O'Neal, especially with Kenny Thomas coming along for the ride. Why wouldn't they just keep Jefferson and use Ratliff's expiring to try and get another good player?

Because Jermaine O'neal is about 5x's the player Jefferson is right now. O'Neal allows them to compete in the weak Atlantic WITH Pierce. You wait for Jefferson to get to the level that O'Neal is currently at and pierce is retired.

 

[nbrans]

Because Jermaine O'neal is about 5x's the player Jefferson is right now. O'Neal allows them to compete in the weak Atlantic WITH Pierce. You wait for Jefferson to get to the level that O'Neal is currently at and pierce is retired.

O'Neal is 5xs better than Jefferson? Really? In that case, why do the Kings want him?

 

[Smills91]

O'Neal is 5xs better than Jefferson? Really? In that case, why do the Kings want him?

He's still good, but JO is better. Al Jefferson would fill out the PF spot for the next decade and we'd have Garcia/Douby at the 2 at that time...

IMO

Garcia + Jefferson > Martin + Reef/Kenny

 

[tjobrien]

As I pointed out, Wally's contract runs through '09. You might want to do a little fact checking before you say that other people don't know what they're talking about.

I misread. Doesn't mean you have to be rude.

 

[fnordius]

Sorry about the misunderstanding, then.

 

[fnordius]

You were also assuming that Kenny would exercise his player option in 08 which will not happen.

Since it hasn't happened yet, there are no facts, only opinions. But I think that if anyone wanted to pay Kenny more than he's getting now, he would have been traded already. Just my opinion, but I don't think it's entirely implausible.

 

[Smills91]

Since it hasn't happened yet, there are no facts, only opinions. But I think that if anyone wanted to pay Kenny more than he's getting now, he would have been traded already. Just my opinion, but I don't think it's entirely implausible.

You think Kenny Thomas could garner MORE than 8+ million on the free market? I've enjoyed the majority of your posts, but com'n, there is NO WAY EVER that Kenny will opt out...I don't even think he could get HALF the salary he currently has.

 

[fnordius]

You think Kenny Thomas could garner MORE than 8+ million on the free market? I've enjoyed the majority of your posts, but com'n, there is NO WAY EVER that Kenny will opt out...I don't even think he could get HALF the salary he currently has.

No, I totally agree! I don't think he could ever get anything close to $8M on the free market, and never said that I thought he'd opt out. I assumed, as you said in an earlier post, that he would exercise his PO. But it's not early termination, it's an option to stick around until '09, so exercising it = staying.

I only mentioned his contract length, and PO, because Wally's is at least as long, no matter what.

 

[beb0p]

Kings/Pacers/Celtics


Indiana trades:
Jermaine O'Neal
Maceo Baston

Indiana receives:
Theo Ratliff
Kevin Martin
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Boston 2007 2nd round pick

My biggest question about this trade is why would Indiana give up their franchise player for Kmart and two past-their-prime vets? The Pacers has invested a lot by giving up Al Harrington and getting Murphy and Dunleavy to complement O'Neal. If they deal O'Neal, they give up the one piece that they build around, and the pieces that's left do not fit anymore. Trading O'Neal makes no sense unless they also get rid of Dunleavy and Murphy in the process.

The player that the Pacers really want to trade away is Jamaal Tinsley. But only if they can find a suitable replacement.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

as far as boston goes, everyones talking about trading there 2007 1st rd pick if its not 1 or 2, along with bigAL/green and theo for gasol, so i could see them being interested.

As a kings fan though, DONT GET WALLY.. this guys a mess..we dont need anymore big contracts.. he would do less than KT if we got him.. he WONT stay healthy


just a note from someone whos seen al jefferson and kevin martin about 60+ times this year: Big Al is much better than Kmart, trust me i love the season kevin has had.. but like someone said, jefferson is almost at brand status, and at only 22!! and people didnt think he would be a great rebounder and hes learned to do that aswell

 

[Troy]

Thanks for the feedback on AL MA guy. Yeah getting a young big with great potential in is showing it in the NBA and can really be special is something we could definately use. I love KMart, but a guards are much easier to replace then a good 4/5 athletic big.

 

[ParniValjak]

I would do it in a second but I am not sure that Boston or Indy would.

Martin is good but I would much rather have Al. A young big with a potential to be a perenial All-Star.

 

[vytzka]

I wouldn't do this.

As much as I'd like Kings to get Al, Kevin is our best player and instead of very reasonable SAR deal and Kenny with all his flaws we'd get even more horrendous (to remind us that there are such things in the NBA) Wally's contract. Yes, it's one year shorter - one year shorter than forever, that is - but almost twice as big and he doesn't give us anything we don't already have even when he's healthy. Which he's not going to be for any longer stretch of time especially as he's getting older and older and older still.

Besides I don't think JWill^2 will be a much worse defensive player than Jefferson. But I'm deluded so you might take that with a grain of salt

 

[Smills91]

I wouldn't do this.

As much as I'd like Kings to get Al, Kevin is our best player and instead of very reasonable SAR deal and Kenny with all his flaws we'd get even more horrendous (to remind us that there are such things in the NBA) Wally's contract. Yes, it's one year shorter - one year shorter than forever, that is - but almost twice as big and he doesn't give us anything we don't already have even when he's healthy. Which he's not going to be for any longer stretch of time especially as he's getting older and older and older still.

Besides I don't think JWill^2 will be a much worse defensive player than Jefferson. But I'm deluded so you might take that with a grain of salt

You see I disagree with you about Wally...if we move Martin we only have Bibby as a main shooter from downtown...Wally adds that threat and I think he could be AS productive as either SAR or Kenny. Al Jefferson+Garcia > Martin+SAR/KT IMO AND we save money in the process to become PLAYAS in the 2009 Free Agency Frenzy.

 

[vytzka]

You see I disagree with you about Wally...if we move Martin we only have Bibby as a main shooter from downtown...

Simple - so we don't Kevin is a better shooter and general scorer than Wally anyway (if in a different position).

Al Jefferson+Garcia > Martin+SAR/KT IMO

Yeah, but I'll go out on a limb and say that Al + Garcia + Wally < Martin + SAR/JWill^2 in a year or two + Kenny on a coach at home.

AND we save money in the process to become PLAYAS in the 2009 Free Agency Frenzy.

Maybe, I'm not well researched on 2009 FAF yet. But have in mind that AJ will want a baffilion dollars contract once his rookie one is up. Well, at least we woudn't have to pay Wally to sit in full body casts on the bench by that time (Kenny OTOH would still be around).

 

[ParniValjak]

I think what this comes down to is which position is harder to fill. The bad contracts are a bit of a wash anyway. So those things are really secondary in this discussion.

We would be giving up a SG who is an efficient scorer, not much of a defender and is a bit inconsistent. A great role model in terms of how he conducts himself both off the court and on it. He will get better.

BUT in return we would be getting a young PF that we could build our future around. Al is already a double double beast and has been playing better the longer the season has gone on. He also will only get better. He brings scoring, rebounding and shot blocking.

Sure you get Wally as a result of getting this good young big but you also lose Kenny.

From Kings perspective, this is the deal that we would do but I am just about certain that Boston and Indy wouldn't. Boston know they are on a good thing with Al and if they are lucky in this draft and pair him with Oden then they are laughing all the way to the bank for years to come.

We could then use our pick to pick up a quality PG and shop both Artest and Bibby around for some young talent and/or picks.

 

[Smills91]

Simple - so we don't Kevin is a better shooter and general scorer than Wally anyway (if in a different position).
Yeah, but I'll go out on a limb and say that Al + Garcia + Wally < Martin + SAR/JWill^2 in a year or two + Kenny on a coach at home.
Maybe, I'm not well researched on 2009 FAF yet. But have in mind that AJ will want a baffilion dollars contract once his rookie one is up. Well, at least we woudn't have to pay Wally to sit in full body casts on the bench by that time (Kenny OTOH would still be around).

We'd still have JWill on the roster IMO so I don't see how that is relevant in your comparison of line-ups:

AlJeff/Garcia/Wally > Martin/Reef/Kenny BY FAR.

Yes Al Jeff will probably want and merit a maxed out contract...however, would you rather max out Martin a SG or max out Al Jeff a PF/C type? Give me the PF/C type.

In this draft who is better? Spencer Hawes or Corey Brewer? Give me Brewer. Give me Brewer.

It's about opportunity cost. The cost of replacing Martin is lower than the cost of finding al jefferson caliber PF. It's that simple.

 

[bigbadred00]

I doubt they will be willing to trade AJ any time soon. He's just too valuable at 22 to be traded. His 1 drawback is he is not very good defensively yet. I'm not sure he's athletic enough to be great defensively. Brand I think is much better as a whole than AJ, but that's saying a lot about Brand rather than dogging AJ.