Garliguy said:
In the "cushy" part of our schedule sans Webber (where the Kings had the best record in the NBA at 44-15), the Kings won home games against Detroit, the Lakers, and Indiana, and road games at Detroit, at Minnesota, at San Antonio, at Utah (twice) and at the Lakers.
They also lost to Golden State (should have lost twice, but JRich Pejaed a game-winning open layup in the 1st game), Boston (blew a 15 point lead in about 3 minutes), New York (blew a big lead late), Portland (one of the worst losses I can ever remember, blowing both a 20+ point lead and a 10 point lead with 1:30 to go - just unbelievable), imploded against Dallas on Christmas (totally embarassing, another big lead squandered), etc... There were bad losses in that stretch, too - just as bad as any of the bad losses once Webber returned.
Garliguy said:
With Webber on the floor (where the Kings went 11-12), the Kings did play a slightly tougher schedule, but they also lost at Miami, at Washington, and, in a must win game to acquire a seed higher than the Lakers, at Golden State.
The schedule wasn't just 'slightly' tougher, it was a couple orders of magnitude tougher:
The average winning percentage of the Kings' opponents in the 59 games without Webber was .461. The average winning percentage of their opponents in the 23 games with Webber was .534. Pretty significant difference - but it isn't the only thing tougher.
The Kings played 13 road games and 9 home games with Webber - 59% of the games were road games, compared to 47% without him.
The Kings played 7 road games on the 2nd half of a back-to-back in the 23 games Webber played - 23% of the games were the toughest situation in the NBA, compared to 7 in the 59 he didn't play (11% of the 59).
7 of the 23 games came against the NBA's Elite (LA, SA, Dallas, Minnesota, Detroit, Indiana), 30% of the games, compared to 20% without Webber.
- Harder overall opponents
- More road games
- More road games with no rest
- More games with elite opponents
That's not slightly harder; it's significantly harder in every conceivable way. I remember when the Kings had some of their bad losses early in the season and I got slammed for some of my criticism; well, I knew the Kings' closing schedule was ridiculously brutal and they couldn't afford to blow 20 point leads.
As far as injuries go:
- Bobby Jackson played about 10 minutes in those last 23 games (pretty significant loss, considering his minutes went to a guy who has 1 skill)
- Brad Miller effectively missed 6 games after injuring his elbow against Houston (he sat out 3, but was so ineffective in 3 others (averaging around 3 points and 4 rebounds in over 25 minutes/game - his jumper was so off that he made Webber look like Larry Bird when Bird was in the zone) that he might as well not have played) and was limited for about 6 more
Yes, those factors, combined with the fatigue of Peja (played in the Summer AGAIN and just looked tired towards the end) and Vlade (old and worn out from too many minutes) are the reason why the Kings went 11-12 down the stretch. Does that excuse Webber? No. He didn't generally play well during this stretch, and while he wasn't the problem IMO, he did not provide the solution (something the franchise player is supposed to do in hard times - his injury cannot fully excuse that).
However, I think it's just insane that so much focus is placed on a few regular season games; the Kings didn't go down in the playoffs because they lost HCA, they lost in the playoffs because they blew a lead in PATHETIC fashion in Game 2 (the series was just over if Bibby or Peja just would have had a shred of discipline and could have just held the freaking ball instead of quickshooting, but Adelman-led teams have never had the slightest bit of discipline when it matters) - the series was over, and the Kings still found a way to lose. Let's focus on THAT failure (the only one that matters, unless you think hanging Pacific division banners means more than NBA championship ones), not the regular season wipeout.