Keys to Round 1 Victory over San Antonio

#1
We all understand that the Monarchs have a tremendous task in front of them, playing I feel the best team in the league RIGHT NOW, not by far. Here are the keys to victory. I will break this down in tandums:

POINT GUARD TANDEM – Penechiero and Franklin

Offense - It is the job of Ticha Penicheiro to control the amount of turnovers in this series. The Monarchs seem to create turnovers when anyone other than Ticha or Powell is handling the ball. Ticha’s numbers in the seven game streak before the break were 9.7 points per game on 8 shots per game. After the break she is only averaging 3 points per game on 4 shots. Of course we know because of the shoulder injury, her production dropped. But the only way the Monarchs win is if Ticha raises her shot attempts, driving to the paint, dragging Hammon and Johnson right to the free throw line. I do not know if Franklin will play much in this round. I think Sacramento would be better served to go to a three guard rotation in Ticha, Lawson and Newton.

Defense – On the defensive side, the key is keeping Becky Hammon out of the paint, where I think she is most effective. She has that Steve Nash drive and dish game that constantly burned the Monarch in the post season last year. Vicki Johnson is a big time post season player, so I will not fall into the trap that her production is down. She is a great facilitator of the offense, and it is up to Kara Lawson to deny her the ball.

Key – Ticha must return to her pre Olympic break production if the Monarchs have any shot at winning. Her production somewhat offsets what Hammon will do. If Ticha continues to be hampered by injury, the Monarchs are in trouble.


SCORING TANDEM – Powell and Lawson

Offense - Nicole Powell and Kara Lawson leads the best three point shooting team in the WNBA. They knock down a combined 4-3 point shots per game. That may not sound like a lot, but they are a tremendous threat and have to be game planned for. Their outside shooting opens up the paint for Rebekkah Brunson to roam inside. Powell is in a stretch of playing her best ball of the season. Over the last two games (not counting last night Houston) she is averaging 21 points, 3.5 steals, shooting a blistering 61.5 percent and 7 of 11 from downtown. Nicole is still not getting to the line as much, but her overall game has been raised. Erin Buescher will be guarding Powell, and it would be in Powell’s best interest to get Erin into foul trouble early and often. Kara Lawson has just been a different player since Beijing. It is not so much the game (which has been sweet) it is the attitude, leadership and most importantly the aggressiveness. Kara has to stay aggressive. The Monarchs live and die on her emotion, leadership and passion.

Defense – On the other side of the ball, Sacramento has the edge in quickness here, but Johnson and Buescher has the clear edge in size. Buescher who has been the primary starting small forward in the S.Stars big front line used to be no threat from the outside. But this season she has knocked down 27 triples this year. To put that in perspective, she had all of ZERO 3 pointers in 57 games while she played in Sacramento. It would be to Powell’s advantage to play up on her and make her put the ball on the floor. I have not seen much of San Antonio this year, but I am sure Erin is more spot up shooter than anything else. Lawson defending Johnson should be a comfortable matchup. Kara has to make Vicki shoot and not put the ball on the floor.

KEY – We know Lawson is going to come to play. The key here is Powell; always have and always will be. She is the most talented, versatile player in the series. She has to play like an All-Star. On the defensive side, Powell must not allow Erin Buescher to get into the flow. It is bad enough that there are three and a half other All Star caliber players in the Silver Stars starting lineup. Keep the Silver Stars perimeter players in foul trouble by pressing the issue against Buescher and Johnson by being aggressive and using your quickness.



DEFENSIVE/ENERGY TANDEM – Robinson and Newton

Offense – Robinson and Newton’s main responsibility on offense is to hit the outside shot when they are open. And Robinson to continue to drive the lane and draw fouls.

Defense – These two earn their money on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio does not have a particularly deep bench. Helen Darling, Edwige-Lawson and Atrunase are their main perimeter players. I’ll be honest, I know very little about Ed-Lawson and Atrunase. So in my view, Newton and Robinson’s primary focus is to anchor the Monarchs transition defense when they come off the bench. Do not allow Hammon to do what she wants in the open floor. Run the floor, fill the passing lanes and bring energy on the defensive end.

KEY– I think San Antonio’s bench is short and relatively unproductive. If Newton and Robinson can average anywhere from 15 to 20 points a game combined off the bench, I think that will be huge. That may be asking a lot, but in order for Sacramento to offset San Antonio’s great starting five, we need bench production.
 
#2
ROOKIE TANDEM – Harper and Kelly


Offense – I am sure Coach Jenny is not going to limit the minutes of Harper and Kelly in the post season just because they are first year players with no WNBA Playoff experience. But I will say that Coach has to ride the backs of her veterans and hope that while Harper and/or Kelly are in the game, that they limit their errors. In other words control the turnovers. Both players, particularly Harper have the propensity to turn the ball over at crucial points in the game. ESPECIALLY GETTING THEIR SHOTS BLOCKED!!!! Harper has to realize that she is in the game to hit the boards, not to force shots in the paint only to see it get swatted or turn into a jump ball. Kelly is a little better in getting to the line. Kelly is 4th in all rookies in free throw attempts, and is second amongst all rookies shooting 85 percent.


Defense – Defensively, both of these players are going to learn in the fire. They will be facing in my opinion, one of the top two front lines in the game. Use your fouls, just not dumb, stupid fouls. Bring energy, but not chaos.

KEY – If Harper and Kelly can limit turnovers and hit their free throws, they will in my view contribute.


REBOUND/POST TANDEM – Brunson and Williams Strong

Offense - In my view, this is where San Antonio has a huge advantage. If Brunson was healthy, this may be a better matchup. Brunson’s game is about pulling her player away from the basket, and taking her off of the dribble; or shooting that little free throw jumper. She can not do that now. Brunson’s jumper has been limited because of the leg injuries. Right now all she is good for is parking in the post and hoping for the best. Williams Strong is……..well, Williams Strong.

Defense – Ann Wauters has made San Antonio a championship favorite. She has come in and plays a Ruth Riley type game, but only better and more precise. Her stats are not eye-popping, but I guarantee you her plus/minus numbers when she is in the game is off the charts. It just seems like when Waulters is in the game, good things tend to happen for San Antonio. Sophia Young is in my view one of the best power forward in the game. She does not get the press that Candace Parker gets, but I think she is better. She quietly goes about her business and creates havoc in the paint. She runs the floor, rebounds and with those long arms is extremely effective in the post. I am hoping that Bekkah physically will be better and her mobile self to stay with her.

Key – Containing Wauters and Young is crucial. Either Williams or Brunson is going to have to step up and contain ONE of these players on both sides of the ball. If both get off, it could be a very short series.



OVERVIEW
I understand their are a lot of challenges ahead for the Sacramento Monarchs to win this series. But it starts with Game 1. Win Game 1 any way you can, and this series can be had. This series will come down to two main issues: FREE THROWS, BENCH PRODUCTION. San Antonio is talented, but they are not very deep. If Sacramento gets to the line, particularly the bench, Sacramento wins the series.

Harper, Kelly, Newton and Robinson must produce. The bench has been counted on for the whole entire season. They have to step up and support this team, now more than ever. The Monarchs starting five does not compare to Silver Stars. But as a team, as we always have played as, we can win.
 
#3
wow, PR, very thorough ... !!! i'm gonna say the key is Becky Hammon, and the 40:00 minute, 94' x 47', D that gets played against her ... no mental lapses, no losing her intransition, no letting her get 2 or 3 threes in a row ... ball denial, dribble denial, tower over her short self, D * ... i know that SASS has more weapons that just Hammon ... Sophia Young is one of my new faves ... but if Becky is shut down, i think SASS will be shut down ... and i think the M's can do that ... i think D will lead to O for the M's ...

fans gotta treat this game as the possible LAST one of the season at ARCO, and give it their all ... i'm sure i'll go home hoarse and i better go home deaf too ...

* ... i'm talking Scho, Chelsea, Ticha, Kara, Aqua ... whoever ... everybody ...
 
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#4
Excellent analysis PR! Monarchs MUST nail their freethrows, and limit their turnovers. In addition to Harper & Kelly focusing on decreasing turnovers, I think that Williams-Strong and Robinson must do the same for us to win. While Sho-time often draws fouls driving the lane, she also often traps herself in the lane, or worse, turns the ball over. She has the range to shoot the three, and will help to open up the lane if she is not always predictably driving the lane...JMO