Is Fox on track? (moved from the Optimism thread)

#61
Here's what I'd say about Fox.

He has clear All Star potential. But so do a number of PG's in this game. It's probably the most competitive position in the game. Even looking back, Bibby was the best PG this franchise has seen in the Sac era and he never made an All Star team.

Beyond that the most important question has to be answered. That being, is Fox willing to accept the responsibility and the accountability which comes with it, of being the cornerstone of the franchise. It's not the Luka thread but I'll bring him up as far as this comparison goes. Right now he's in the transition of learning to be the cornerstone of a franchise and all that comes with that. It's incredible pressure, massive commitments both on and off the court, the focus of the media and you better show up every night and answer for it. You can see in Luka's interviews him coming to terms with the responsibility.

This goes for any player who wants to be the centerpiece of an organization.

I have not seen this from Fox yet. As of now he picks and chooses when to accept this responsibility. When he arrives at the point where he accepts accountability for the team's outcome on any given night, comes out ready to lead the team on every given night, is the leading force and the engine of the team on every single night and succeeds, then the Kings have franchise player.

It's great to get the accolades when you win. Can you shoulder the blame when we lose? Can you shoulder the blame when we lose to the point that every night when you step on the floor you go so hard that you know a win depends on your performance.

That's what the Kings need from Fox. Dame Lillard went thru the same and rose to the occasion.
We need consistent performances like last night before he gets pressure like star player gets right now it’s not consistent enough.
 
#62
He's just too passive. He doesn't have the killer mentality yet, I don't know if he'll ever have it.
He needs to consistently play with the same aggressiveness and anger he displayed last night.

But often he defers and tries to be a good teammate, which I somewhat understand. It can be hard to find the right balance between being selfish and getting others involved.

Its funny, but Buddy Hield plays with the mentality Swipa needs to and vice versa.

Buddy needs to reign himself in, recognize his limitations, and be more unselfish. Whereas Swipa needs to play with Buddy’s attitude of believing he’s better than he actually is. Because De’Aaron has the natural talent, speed, athleticism and handles to actually make it payoff.
 
#63
Here's what I'd say about Fox.

He has clear All Star potential. But so do a number of PG's in this game. It's probably the most competitive position in the game. Even looking back, Bibby was the best PG this franchise has seen in the Sac era and he never made an All Star team.

Beyond that the most important question has to be answered. That being, is Fox willing to accept the responsibility and the accountability which comes with it, of being the cornerstone of the franchise. It's not the Luka thread but I'll bring him up as far as this comparison goes. Right now he's in the transition of learning to be the cornerstone of a franchise and all that comes with that. It's incredible pressure, massive commitments both on and off the court, the focus of the media and you better show up every night and answer for it. You can see in Luka's interviews him coming to terms with the responsibility.

This goes for any player who wants to be the centerpiece of an organization.

I have not seen this from Fox yet. As of now he picks and chooses when to accept this responsibility. When he arrives at the point where he accepts accountability for the team's outcome on any given night, comes out ready to lead the team on every given night, is the leading force and the engine of the team on every single night and succeeds, then the Kings have franchise player.

It's great to get the accolades when you win. Can you shoulder the blame when we lose? Can you shoulder the blame when we lose to the point that every night when you step on the floor you go so hard that you know a win depends on your performance.

That's what the Kings need from Fox. Dame Lillard went thru the same and rose to the occasion.
I think this is excellent analysis, and thanks for juxtaposing Luka without being pedantic. I would like to "yes, and" the above. I think we do see the future leader in Fox. Part of Carmichael Dave's analysis yesterday was talking about how guys need to be a more commanding presence, and not just go home and play video games. That applies to a lot of (maybe all) our young guys, but I'm positive he meant Fox.

I think Shump was the buffer last year. He was able to deliver criticism in a joking manner. Fox is very direct. I think he expects other professionals to do the things they need to do, and to be focused on winning. I think that, right now, he struggles with addressing older players that do not adhere to that. Buddy, I think, is a problem. Buddy works hard, but is not super coachable, and he's a convivial talker who will mope when criticized.
 
#64
Yes one game means he's not better
While I agree that a one game sample size is a joke, it never stops anyone with an agenda.

Every single Summer League there are always several fans jumping off a cliff declaring someone a bust.

In short, there are a lot of fans that love to jump to conclusions whenever it fits their narrative.

I was a staunch Fox supporter heading into the 2017 draft. And I’m still a fan. I think he’ll be fine.

But I also love Ja Morant and gave the unpopular take that I felt he might end up the best player from the 2019 draft. I still believe that to be true.

I compared Ja Morant to Swipa. There are some similarities. I believe both players will be top players for a long time.
 
#65
He’s on track. If positions 2-4 were bringing it nightly, Fox’s star would be shining bright. Leading a pro team is no easy task. He’s almost there (one more year).

This season has been like chewing on sand, but I still have hope that we will get some development out of it.
 
#66
Well for those of you have a subscription to the Athletic, Fox is not well ranked in this article.

Hollinger’s NBA Playmaker Tiers: Ranking the league’s top ‘quarterbacks’

Without giving it away Fox resides in Over-extended Secondary Options. His poor 3 point shooting and (though they don’t mention it) relatively low assist to turnover ratio all play into the ranking.
 
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#67
I read it. I understand why he did it - but glossing over Doncic’s low 3 pt percentage then docking Fox for the same thing bothered me.
But based on this year - no problem with Fox’s ranking. I just think he has lots of room to improve - and I would bet on that happening.
 
#68
Fox has had a few setbacks but seems to bounce back quickly. I believe a lot of the negativity is because of who he plays for.
What I have seen is his progress upward in many aspects of his game.
I also see the no respect for him even from the referees most nights and after seeing them let him become a human pinball quite often with no calls sickens me.
 
#69
Well for those of you have a subscription to the Athletic, Fox is not well ranked in this article.

Hollinger’s NBA Playmaker Tiers: Ranking the league’s top ‘quarterbacks’

Without giving it away Fox resides in Over-extended Secondary Options. His poor 3 point shooting and (though they don’t mention it) relatively low assist to turnover ratio all play into the ranking.
As much as I enjoy The Athletic, I did not understand the reasoning for some of these rankings, Fox in particular. They essentially blame Fox for Buddy and Bogie's poor play this season. To quote: "The lack of juice from Fox has had a cascading effect, forcing players like Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic into higher-usage roles where they’re taking a lot more jumpers off the dibble than anybody would prefer." They also criticize his preference to shoot jump shots over 3's, but when they mention that about Brandon Ingram, who is 11 spots higher than Fox, they say at least he is a good enough 2 point shooter to justify it, even though Fox is shooting 46% from shots between 10 feet and the 3 point line.
 
#70
Despite Fox spending a decent majority of his games played this year working back from injury, or not quite right, there's a ton of positive signs we should be looking at:

Free throw rate up: .378 to .471
AST rate up: 33.2% to 37.3%
True shooting up: 54.4% to 55.2%
USG rate up: 24.5% to 28.2%
Total rebounding rate up: 6.2% to 7.3%

And the shooting thing is overblown... he just came off a year shooting 37% on 232 attempts. We're supposed to throw that out after 64 attempts this year?

That's why looking at base assist/TOV rate is dumb. Doesn't take into context of the role a guy is playing. Fox is now shouldering a #1 workload for the first time in his career and most of his stats are showing a positive uptick despite a big workload increase from year 2 to year 3.
 

VF21

#KingsFansForever
Staff member
#71
Here's the link to the Hollinger article

Fox is part of the group @sactowndog refers to above, which Hollinger defines as: "These are all good players in the right role, but being asked to do far too much for offenses that don’t have enough weapons to shove them into a more appropriate role"

Hollinger also says: "...Just 22 years old, Fox, the hope remains, can become a true leading man, but to get there he has to become a legitimate threat on pull-ups off the dribble and pull defenders close enough to blast by them..."

I don't subscribe to The Athletic to read Hollinger, whose takes I think are much less objective than Sam Amick and Jason Jones, but it's a decent article about the current crop of what we used to call floor generals.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#74
Fox was on Grant's show. What a fantastic interview with Doug and Grant. What does he say is the most important thing going forward? "Holding each other accountable." Not taking it [criticism] personally. Every time I listen to this young man I come away extremely impressed with his intelligence and maturity. He wants to be the leader, and from what I could tell from the interview, so do the players on the team.
 
#75
Fox was on Grant's show. What a fantastic interview with Doug and Grant. What does he say is the most important thing going forward? "Holding each other accountable." Not taking it [criticism] personally. Every time I listen to this young man I come away extremely impressed with his intelligence and maturity. He wants to be the leader, and from what I could tell from the interview, so do the players on the team.
Bias aside, I think he is the most well spoken player in the league.
 
#76
And the shooting thing is overblown... he just came off a year shooting 37% on 232 attempts. We're supposed to throw that out after 64 attempts this year?
As for his shooting, I've expressed my skepticism before.

Below are his 3PT & FT stats going all the way back to his freshmen year of high school:

1578607022394.png

His 3PT% has been between 24.6%-37.2% and there doesn't seem to be a consistent uptick in these %s over time. When you build a trendline to fit these %s (although it's only 8 data points), you can see the trendline has a negative slope for both 3PT% & FT%.

1578607287717.png


Obviously , players can get better, and there are plenty of examples of players improving their shot over time, but it's the fact that we haven't really seen a steady increase which is what concerns me. Across 7.5 years & 1,020 attempts, he has shot 33.4%. That's not horrible but it's not good either (especially since over half of those 3PA are from a closer 3PT line). From a FT% standpoint, he has shot 73.3%. Again, not horrible but it's not good either.

His FT% has been virtually flat the last 3 years (and is actually lower than his %s in High School & College) which is usually a good gauge on if a player is improving their shot. Whereas 3PT shot can have more variability...
  • Was the shot highly contested or was he wide open?
  • Was it a half court heave, above the arc, or in the corner?
  • Was it with plenty of time on the clock or was it with the shot clock expiring?
  • Was it catch & shoot, off a screen, step back, or a pull-up?
There are a lot of things that can influence someone's 3PT% without their shooting ability changing at all.

But again, FTs are basically the same exact shot every time, and Fox hasn't increased his FT% in the past 3 years (and actually has regressed looking at HS & College). That doesn't give me a lot of confidence that his shot is actually improving.
 
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#78
All great points above about the likely shooting projections for Fox. BUT - he is uber athletic and by all reports works hard. He might exceed the expected trend. I think he will - but it’s totally reasonable to expect 75% FTs and 35% 3s as his plateau. I am betting (my fandom) on 80% and 37% with more 3-point attempts.
I’ve been wrong before.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#80
His play since coming back from back spasms has been exactly what I have hoped he would become. If Fox continues to play this way from now on we will be in good shape.
His play in 2020 has been the most consistently good stretch of basketball by a Kings player since we traded Boogie. The dude has been an absolute stud on both ends of the floor with the exception of free throw shooting for some reason.
 
#81
As for his shooting, I've expressed my skepticism before.

Below are his 3PT & FT stats going all the way back to his freshmen year of high school:

View attachment 9469

His 3PT% has been between 24.6%-37.2% and there doesn't seem to be a consistent uptick in these %s over time. When you build a trendline to fit these %s (although it's only 8 data points), you can see the trendline has a negative slope for both 3PT% & FT%.

View attachment 9470


Obviously , players can get better, and there are plenty of examples of players improving their shot over time, but it's the fact that we haven't really seen a steady increase which is what concerns me. Across 7.5 years & 1,020 attempts, he has shot 33.4%. That's not horrible but it's not good either (especially since over half of those 3PA are from a closer 3PT line). From a FT% standpoint, he has shot 73.3%. Again, not horrible but it's not good either.

His FT% has been virtually flat the last 3 years (and is actually lower than his %s in High School & College) which is usually a good gauge on if a player is improving their shot. Whereas 3PT shot can have more variability...
  • Was the shot highly contested or was he wide open?
  • Was it a half court heave, above the arc, or in the corner?
  • Was it with plenty of time on the clock or was it with the shot clock expiring?
  • Was it catch & shoot, off a screen, step back, or a pull-up?
There are a lot of things that can influence someone's 3PT% without their shooting ability changing at all.

But again, FTs are basically the same exact shot every time, and Fox hasn't increased his FT% in the past 3 years (and actually has regressed looking at HS & College). That doesn't give me a lot of confidence that his shot is actually improving.
Yeah his shot is very iffy. A somewhat comparable guy would be Kemba Walker. Basically shot between 30-33% from 3 in college and his first 4 years in the league. Main difference is he was roughly an 80% shooter from the FT line.

The good thing is that Fox has seemed to improved on every other aspect this last week. Playing more like Westbrook lite.
 
#84
Fox is the best pg we have had since Bibby. His game will continue to grow in every aspect as the game will slow down for him.
I would love to see him in a few more PnR plays if we can find someone who is capable of constantly hitting a 10 footer.
 
#85
When Walton shows he has Foxs back in a high profile way it will help a lot. One of these games when Fox is fouled and the refs swallow their whistles Walton needs to go batcrap crazy to get the refs attention.

Right now it is business as usual for defenders and the Refs. Refs ignore defenders hammering the Young King because......Sacramento.

This has to stop for Fox to really start to show his game. We have not seen what Fox can do without facing a gauntlet of NBA defenders every time he drives to the hoop. Right now the defenders know and Fox knows he is going to get the hammer on every drive. I'm really surprised the young man does not have the yips. He is showing a lot of courage. Coach needs to have his back!
 
#88
You cant have everything u want in life. People sometimes r just unrealistic in terms of hope.
I think we have in Fox an all-star. Logic says that he will keep getting better.
And maybe average 25-8 some seasons.

But he just doesn’t feel right, looks like that he needs very strong teammates to perform, which lead me to think he lacks leadership and he is unable to carry the load of a bad franchise with no history like the kings, imagine if he played for LAL, I can perfectly see how he will drown in that kind of pressure.