Insider W-L Predictions (and Kings W poll)

What's your first guess on Kings wins this season?

  • 40 or under

  • 41

  • 42

  • 43

  • 44

  • 45

  • 46

  • 47

  • 48

  • 49 or more


Results are only viewable after voting.
#1
WCF ---the Rockets (53.7 wins), Nuggets (53.3), Lakers (47.9), Clippers (47.9), Jazz (46.8), Warriors (46.4) and Mavericks (44.0). Blazer (40.2)

Kings (39.9), Timberwolves (39.5), Spurs (38.6), Pelicans (38.5), Suns (38.0), Thunder (36.6) and Grizzlies (31.9).

Statistically I'm not sure what that amounts to exactly - maybe Blazers by percentage points over Kings and T-Wolves. -- 1 game better.

I'm not sure I agree with the Mavericks leaping up 11 games from last year. - its a stretch ,even with Porzingis.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#2
Portland lost Leonard, Harkless, Aminu, Curry & Turner. two starters and three bench players and replaced them with Whiteside, Bazemore, Hezonja, Tolliver & Nassir Little. That's a lot of chemistry lost there and firepower off the bench too. Plus, we don't know how Nurkic will come back after his injury. No way Suns win 38, I'll take the under all day on that. Kings are about right, I say they hover around 40-43 wins.
 
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SLAB

Hall of Famer
#5
Not even 48 for the Clippers? WTF?

44 for the Mavs, huh?

Pretty much agree with the Kings. The West is so stacked, that while the Kings will undoubtedly be better and more talented than they were last season, idk if it will actually translate into the win column. Prove me wrong boys!

Lol the Suns being only a game behind us. That’s a joke.
 
#7
WCF ---the Rockets (53.7 wins), Nuggets (53.3), Lakers (47.9), Clippers (47.9), Jazz (46.8), Warriors (46.4) and Mavericks (44.0). Blazer (40.2)

Kings (39.9), Timberwolves (39.5), Spurs (38.6), Pelicans (38.5), Suns (38.0), Thunder (36.6) and Grizzlies (31.9).

Statistically I'm not sure what that amounts to exactly - maybe Blazers by percentage points over Kings and T-Wolves. -- 1 game better.

I'm not sure I agree with the Mavericks leaping up 11 games from last year. - its a stretch ,even with Porzingis.
I'd switch the Kings in place for the mavericks and that sounds just about right.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#10
I'm thinking 47 wins for the Kings. The Clipps will win more than 48 games. Phoenix with 38 wins? Rubio as the difference maker? Good luck with that. Where I also diverge with the crowd is with the Warriors and the Lakers. I don't expect the Warriors to get to the playoffs and I think the Lakers will either be in the 6-8th slot in the West or completely out of it because of injuries to AD, LBJ, or both.

Of all the teams in the West other than the Kings, the Warrior and Lakers intrigue me the most because of their paltry benches. If they get to the playoffs, the bench isn't as important, but it sure is during the regular season. The question I have for the Lakers: What is going to be their winning percentage this season when either AD or LBJ is out for load management or because of injury? My two questions for the Warriors: 1) How many points per game is Curry going to have to score for the Warriors to win before Klay comes back at full strength? 2) When will Klay come back at full strength?
 
#11
I don’t get the Mavericks number. I just think people are drinking the Kool-Aid over there.

I think starting with the Lakers and Clippers and moving down the list, a case can be made for all those teams to be over or under rated. Rockets as well. Do the Rockets implode? Lakers and surrounding cast and possible injuries. I actually have the Clippers as better than what they have listed. Blazers usually get overlooked, Warriors are missing quite a bit from last year.....have something to prove without Klay but really losing KD is a big, big thing. Jazz could be the best in the West. People sleeping on the Kings.
 
#12
Im hoping the Kings remain healthy for a bulk of the season and I can see them getting 40-42 wins. The West is a buzzsaw, and it will be tough every night. They need to beat the teams they are supposed to beat, and get a few signature wins at home. 42 wins is very doable.
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#15
I still like Portland but the honeymoon finally ended and now I'm counting my days until I can join baja down in baja (Costa Rica also looks like an appealing option)... oh only about 10 more years or so until kiddo is on his own.
Just make sure your tummy has a lot of south of the border microbes in it before eating the food (forget the water altogether). Montezuma had his revenge on me in Mexico and somewhat in Costa Rica. I did like the wildness of southern Costa Rica though.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#16
I'm thinking 47 wins for the Kings. The Clipps will win more than 48 games. Phoenix with 38 wins? Rubio as the difference maker? Good luck with that. Where I also diverge with the crowd is with the Warriors and the Lakers. I don't expect the Warriors to get to the playoffs and I think the Lakers will either be in the 6-8th slot in the West or completely out of it because of injuries to AD, LBJ, or both.

Of all the teams in the West other than the Kings, the Warrior and Lakers intrigue me the most because of their paltry benches. If they get to the playoffs, the bench isn't as important, but it sure is during the regular season. The question I have for the Lakers: What is going to be their winning percentage this season when either AD or LBJ is out for load management or because of injury? My two questions for the Warriors: 1) How many points per game is Curry going to have to score for the Warriors to win before Klay comes back at full strength? 2) When will Klay come back at full strength?
I have the Kings at 48 wins, if everyone stays healthy and of course that's always a big if. I think both Fox and Bagley will take another big leap forward, and I think Bog's will be back to his normal self now that he's healthy. I think the surprise player will be Giles, who will take a dramatic leap forward this season. The Kings starting five should be able to compete with any team in the league. The difference this season will be the Kings bench, and it will be a huge difference maker. Giles, Bjelica/Holmes, Ariza, Bog's, Joseph is a solid second unit that matches up well with almost any team in the NBA.

To me the Warriors are the mystery team. I think that if all their main players stay healthy, and Thompson comes back as scheduled, they will find a way to sneak into the playoffs. But they have no depth to fall back on and if Curry or any other important player goes down, I think their chance of making the playoffs is somewhere between slim and none.

I have to wait and see with Portland. They look like a totally different team and I'm not sure different adds up to better. Frankly, I don't see improvement, but hey, I've been wrong before. I think the Spurs will really struggle to sneak into the playoff's this year. They didn't improve the team, other than getting Murray back, who to my mind, is still an unproven player. They need Walker to make a dramatic leap this season. I think Lyles was a nice pickup for them, and he'll help. If I'm the Kings, I try to run them off the floor.

I'm not sure anyone knows how good or bad the Thunder will be. I never discount Paul, but he's not getting any younger. They probably start Paul and Alexander together. But no matter how you look at it, they don't have a lot of fire power on that team, and almost zero depth with experience. I just don't see this team making the playoffs. They have some nice young talent, but most of it is unproven.

So to my mind, there are five teams that I consider, barring dramatic injuries, playoff bound. The Clippers, Jazz, Nuggets, Lakers, and Rockets. I think that leaves 5 teams battling it out for the last three playoff spots. The Kings, Warriors, Trailblazers, Spurs, and Mav's. Of those five, I give the Kings and the Trailblazers the best chance of grabbing one of those spots.

The most interesting team might be the Lakers. Obviously, with both AD and Lebron, they're favorites to make a lot of noise in the West. But if one of them goes down, they have zero depth on that team, and they could go from a favorite, to not making the playoffs in a heartbeat. AD has never played a season without an injury of some sort (he's averaged 66 games a yr for his 7 yr. career), and Lebron isn't getting any younger. He's well over the thousand game mark and into that grey area of a players career where injuries become more the norm than an abberation. Lebron only played in 55 games last season.

The perception seems to be that the west got tougher, but I'm not so sure that's true. I think a couple of individual teams got better, like the Clippers and the Lakers, but did Houston get better trading out Paul for Westbrook? I don't think we know yet. I think Utah and Denver got a bit better, but they were already good teams that were going to make the playoffs. The Warriors and the Thunder got worse. The Mav's might have gotten better, but until we see Porzingis on the floor, we don't know. After you get past Doncic, Porzingis and Hardaway Jr. they have a team made up of bench players. My apologies to Dwight Powell.

I think Portland got a bit worse, but still good enough to make the playoffs. I like the makeup of the Pel's but they have too much inexperienced youth to be a factor in the playoff race. Both the Sun's and Grizz look like tankers to me, although I think the Grizz could surprise some people this season, especially if you go in there and think it's a cake walk. I predict the Kings will grab the 7th spot in the playoff race.

A word to the unwise. Don't put any money on my predictions. Why do you think I'm living in baja?:p
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
#18
I have the Kings at 48 wins, if everyone stays healthy and of course that's always a big if. I think both Fox and Bagley will take another big leap forward, and I think Bog's will be back to his normal self now that he's healthy. I think the surprise player will be Giles, who will take a dramatic leap forward this season. The Kings starting five should be able to compete with any team in the league. The difference this season will be the Kings bench, and it will be a huge difference maker. Giles, Bjelica/Holmes, Ariza, Bog's, Joseph is a solid second unit that matches up well with almost any team in the NBA.

To me the Warriors are the mystery team. I think that if all their main players stay healthy, and Thompson comes back as scheduled, they will find a way to sneak into the playoffs. But they have no depth to fall back on and if Curry or any other important player goes down, I think their chance of making the playoffs is somewhere between slim and none.

I have to wait and see with Portland. They look like a totally different team and I'm not sure different adds up to better. Frankly, I don't see improvement, but hey, I've been wrong before. I think the Spurs will really struggle to sneak into the playoff's this year. They didn't improve the team, other than getting Murray back, who to my mind, is still an unproven player. They need Walker to make a dramatic leap this season. I think Lyles was a nice pickup for them, and he'll help. If I'm the Kings, I try to run them off the floor.

I'm not sure anyone knows how good or bad the Thunder will be. I never discount Paul, but he's not getting any younger. They probably start Paul and Alexander together. But no matter how you look at it, they don't have a lot of fire power on that team, and almost zero depth with experience. I just don't see this team making the playoffs. They have some nice young talent, but most of it is unproven.

So to my mind, there are five teams that I consider, barring dramatic injuries, playoff bound. The Clippers, Jazz, Nuggets, Lakers, and Rockets. I think that leaves 5 teams battling it out for the last three playoff spots. The Kings, Warriors, Trailblazers, Spurs, and Mav's. Of those five, I give the Kings and the Trailblazers the best chance of grabbing one of those spots.

The most interesting team might be the Lakers. Obviously, with both AD and Lebron, they're favorites to make a lot of noise in the West. But if one of them goes down, they have zero depth on that team, and they could go from a favorite, to not making the playoffs in a heartbeat. AD has never played a season without an injury of some sort (he's averaged 66 games a yr for his 7 yr. career), and Lebron isn't getting any younger. He's well over the thousand game mark and into that grey area of a players career where injuries become more the norm than an abberation. Lebron only played in 55 games last season.

The perception seems to be that the west got tougher, but I'm not so sure that's true. I think a couple of individual teams got better, like the Clippers and the Lakers, but did Houston get better trading out Paul for Westbrook? I don't think we know yet. I think Utah and Denver got a bit better, but they were already good teams that were going to make the playoffs. The Warriors and the Thunder got worse. The Mav's might have gotten better, but until we see Porzingis on the floor, we don't know. After you get past Doncic, Porzingis and Hardaway Jr. they have a team made up of bench players. My apologies to Dwight Powell.

I think Portland got a bit worse, but still good enough to make the playoffs. I like the makeup of the Pel's but they have too much inexperienced youth to be a factor in the playoff race. Both the Sun's and Grizz look like tankers to me, although I think the Grizz could surprise some people this season, especially if you go in there and think it's a cake walk. I predict the Kings will grab the 7th spot in the playoff race.

A word to the unwise. Don't put any money on my predictions. Why do you think I'm living in baja?:p
Good analysis.

AD averaging 66 games per season is an interesting fact. Let's assume he plays in 66 games next season, which means he doesn't play in 16 games. Just for the heck of it, assume LBJ also is either load managed and/or injured in 16 games next season. Lastly, assume that their injuries/load management do not overlap so that they aren't injured or load managed at the same time. How many of the 32 games in which either AD or LBJ are out are the Lakers going to win? This is the brutal western conference, after all. My speculation: they would have at most a .400 record for those 32 games, which translates into 13 wins over those 32 games. The remaining 50 games let's assume they have a .600 record, which translates into 30 wins. Given those assumptions, that leaves them with a total of 43 wins for the season.

Regarding Giles, the key with him is his outside shot. He has a very soft touch around the basket. I continue to hope and believe that he will become a very good outside shooting big man because of that innate soft touch of his will eventually serve him well in his outside shooting. That said, I'm not sure of what next year's Harry Giles is going to be. I'm looking forward to to seeing his improvement.
 
#19
I’m feeling as optimistic as anyone right now going over different lineups in my head that all seem to fit so well to where I almost feel like I have a problem. Objectively though, pretty much every team in every sport has a player or two that doesn’t take an anticipated step forward or even takes a step back. Assuming we buck that trend and everyone improves their weaknesses and the team gels 48-50 is a realistic prediction but because I’ll baselessly predict minor let downs from a couple guys 44 is what I’m going with. Regardless the season can’t come soon enough
 
#21
A word to the unwise. Don't put any money on my predictions. Why do you think I'm living in baja?:p
I assume it is because you didn't make stupid sports bets and achieved FIRE. Maybe it's not the paradise I imagine and would love to pick your brain should we ever find ourselves in the same arena. Kiddo is about to enter 5th grade so these are just seeds at the moment.

In either event, your analysis is level headed and spot on so I'm glad my 50 prediction is only 2 wins off yours. But no chance in hell would I bet the over and give 20% juice even though I'm sure it's a lock.
 
#24
MOD NOTE: I created a poll. Since we're limited to 10 options at most, I picked what I thought was the most probable spread.
I think it is a reasonable spread but also vastly over what any analyst would say and all choices would win the over in Vegas. Fans are normally optimistic but the current spread between the Sac fan base and analyst community has zero overlap. Not sure I have ever seen that.
 
#25
I think it is a reasonable spread but also vastly over what any analyst would say and all choices would win the over in Vegas. Fans are normally optimistic but the current spread between the Sac fan base and analyst community has zero overlap. Not sure I have ever seen that.
I found it weird the poll didn't have 3-5 game ranges but whatever. The Vegas line is way off but I am pretty sure that they are taking 20% on the over while giving 5% on the under reflects that they know the over is the right bet.
 
#26
MOD NOTE: I created a poll. Since we're limited to 10 options at most, I picked what I thought was the most probable spread.
If I was a paranoid man, I would have thought you deliberately didn't include the 50-win option to deny me my near decade and a half awaited sweet satisfaction of having the team come up to my standards.

But, I'm reasonable, and understand it was merely due to circumstance. This will only make my 50-win prediction all the sweeter when it happens THIS YEAR!
 

VF21

#KingsFansForever
Staff member
#27
If I was a paranoid man, I would have thought you deliberately didn't include the 50-win option to deny me my near decade and a half awaited sweet satisfaction of having the team come up to my standards.

But, I'm reasonable, and understand it was merely due to circumstance. This will only make my 50-win prediction all the sweeter when it happens THIS YEAR!
Oops. You saw through my diabolical plan. :p
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#28
I assume it is because you didn't make stupid sports bets and achieved FIRE. Maybe it's not the paradise I imagine and would love to pick your brain should we ever find ourselves in the same arena. Kiddo is about to enter 5th grade so these are just seeds at the moment.

In either event, your analysis is level headed and spot on so I'm glad my 50 prediction is only 2 wins off yours. But no chance in hell would I bet the over and give 20% juice even though I'm sure it's a lock.
Your welcome to pick over whatever is left of my brain, just PM me. I wouldn't call where I live paradise, but it's not bad. I live on a beach that seldom has people on it in a very reasonably priced house.. Company is always welcome. Bring your own cervesa! :D
 
#29
If the Kings are a legitimate playoff team, then these are the teams that should be guaranteed wins: Suns, Hornets, Knicks, Hawks, Wizards, Bulls, OKC, Grizzlies, Pelicans, and Cavs. If my math is right, that's 25 games right there.

I have 47 games for us.

However, this team needs to prove that they're a playoff team. They didn't prove that last year.. and I would even say that they collapsed after the trade deadline. I think this team lacks mental discipline, but I hope Walton can help with that. There's no more YOUTH excuses. The only exception I would add to that list are our rookies and Bagley. Everyone else has at least 3 years NBA experience now. I still hold a ton of reservation about this team from top to bottom... I want to be realistic about this team and temper my expectations. I do think this team's success will ultimately come down to independent success. We need a franchise player who can score at will. We also need everyone else to do their jobs. Anything less than a 40 win season will be a complete waste of a season for me. There's no way we don't improve from last year unless.. it's coaching.