in case you were wondering why i asked about the kings wins...

[NugzFan]

here are the results: http://basketballboards.net/forum/showthread.php?t=205246

Edited by VF21 to provide text:

Fans preseason win predictions (interesting results)
I went to well over 50 nba boards (and team sub-boards) to get an idea of what fans are predicting for their teams this year. I acquired over 600 picks using the following "rules":

Rules

1. I only counted picks from a fan of that team. If I knew a pick was being made for a team by a fan of a different team, I would not count it.

2. I only counted actual picks that didn't have too many conditions (e.g. "if this team stays healthy and they gel and we are able to hit 35% of our 3s, then we will win ___").

3. If someone gave a range, I would take the average.

4. I did not count absurd picks which were most likely jokes (e.g. "82-0!").

5. Vague picks did not count (e.g. "mid 50s", "at least 40", "40+", or "low 30s").

6. Also did not count when people said "I'd be happy with..." or "I'm hoping for" - I wanted actual predictions, not what fans wanted (two different things).

I received at least 10 picks from each team (some with more than 50). Here's what I got (in order of divisional standings, in wins rounded to nearest tenth):

Standings

Atlantic Division
New Jersey Nets 51.3
Philadelphia 76ers 47.6
New York Knicks 44.9
Boston Celtics 43.0
Toronto Raptors 32.7

Southeast Division
Miami Heat 61.0
Washington Wizards 43.3
Orlando Magic 43.3
Atlanta Hawks 28.9
Charlotte Bobcats 27.8

Central Division
Indiana Pacers 58.7
Detroit Pistons 56.3
Cleveland Cavaliers 52.2
Milwaukee Bucks 46.3
Chicago Bulls 44.0

Pacific Division
Phoenix Suns 57.5
Sacramento Kings 54.5
Golden State Warriors 48.5
Los Angeles Clippers 47.5
Los Angeles Lakers 45.1

NorthWest Division
Denver Nuggets 55.7
Minnesota Timberwolves 50.0
Seattle Supersonics 48.5
Utah Jazz 45.7
Portland Trailblazers 33.3

Southwest Division
San Antonio Spurs 63.1
Dallas Mavericks 56.5
Houston Rockets 52.9
Memphis Grizzlies 47.9
New Orleans Hornets 29.6

Which would result in a playoff seeding of:

Playoffs

Eastern Conference
1. Miami Heat (SE)
2. Indiana Pacers (C)
3. New Jersey Nets (A)
4. Detroit Pistons
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Philadelphia 76ers
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. New York Knicks
(lottery)
9. Chicago Bulls
10. Orlando Magic
10. Washington Wizards
12. Boston Celtics
13. Toronto Raptors
14. Atlanta Hawks
15. Charlotte Bobcats

Western Conference
1. San Antonio Spurs (SW)
2. Phoenix Suns (P)
3. Denver Nuggets (NW)
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Sacramento Kings
6. Houston Rockets
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Seattle Supersonics
8. Golden State Warriors
(lottery)
10. Memphis Grizzlies
11. Los Angeles Clippers
12. Utah Jazz
13. Los Angeles Lakers
14. Portland Trailblazers
15. New Orleans Hornets

Analysis

1. First thing I notice is that only 5 fans picked their team to be below .500 (Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland, New Orleans). Easy to say that many fans will be dissappointed since those 5 teams are generally considered below .500 anyways. Last year there were 12 teams.

2. Furthermore, the total number of wins in any NBA season is 1230. What I got was 1417. Nearly 200 extra wins.

3. Only 7 fans think their team will win fewer games than last year (Boston, Toronto, Chicago, Washington, Seattle, Phoenix, and Dallas). Again, more fans will be dissappointed.

4. Which fans think their team improved the most?

1. Utah +19.7
2. Milwaukee +16.3
3. Atlanta +15.9
4. Indiana +14.7
5. Golden State +14.5
6. New York +11.9
7. New Orleans +11.6
8. Los Angeles Lakers +11.1
9. Los Angeles Clippers +10.5
10. Cleveland Cavaliers +10.2

And like I said before, only 7 teams actually picked less (Phoenix was 1st with 4.5 fewer wins). If you add up their totals, it only comes out to 16.5 fewer wins than last year. Yes, thats the 7-team total and still fewer than the improved win total from Utah alone. So when fans think they get better, they think high. When they think they are getting worse, they are conservative.

My Awards

Most overrated by their own fans

1. Minnesota - 50 wins? Improved by 6? Improved at all? Are you kidding me? Lost Cassell and Sprewell, while adding players like Richie Frahm, Marko Jaric, Nikoloz Tskitishvili? And remember, they still have Olowokandi. Last year showed KG cant do it by himself.

2. Utah - Nearly 20 games better? I know they had injuries but the west is as tough as ever, and they added a rookie PG. Also brought back Ostertag which should take away about 8 wins by himself. 20 is way too many.

3. Orlando - What exactly did you do to improve by over 7 games? Draft some kid to play overseas? The East got better - you didn't.

4. Philadelphia - Can't see them being this high, especially with all the improved teams around them. Didn't do enough to keep pace nor to justify a win improvement of 5 or so games.


Most underrated by their own fans

1. Houston - Not even 2 extra wins from last year? These guys will be good and think will win more than 53 games.

2. Washington - They still have a tough team. Won't be as good as last year but will be fighting for a playoff spot for sure.

3. LA Lakers - The only reason is I just don't see them ending up last in their division. But an 11 game improvement seems about right.

4. Chicago - Finally resolved the Eddy Curry problem and should still field a competitive team. Whether or not they can make the playoffs again, especially since they are in a VERY difficult division, remains to be seen, but they will still be a solid team.

Overall

Not scientific by any means, but its a fun look at the preseason hype generated by fans of nearly every team. At a time when every body can boast that their team is undefeated and in first place. Fortunately, in less than a month, the real games begin.

(If anyone has specific questions about any data I didn't post, feel free to ask)

[Note: Props to Wizard, Jazz, Spur, Raptor, Kings, and Suns fans - had the easiest time getting predictions for those teams. They had the most data and results. Strangely enough, I had the harest time getting data from Piston, Heat, Sonic, Clipper, Knick, and Rocket fans.]

 

[SacTownKid]

Do those results even realistically work. How many 50+ win teams can there be?

Anway, it looks like you did a lot of work, for that I commend you.

 

[NugzFan]

no, they dont. that was the exact point of the research. read it carefully and youll see that fans overestimate by nearly 200 wins. about 6-7 per team.

 

[loopymitch]

Wow you really did put a lot of work into it. It'll be interesting to see how right the fans are.

 

[NugzFan]

Wow you really did put a lot of work into it. It'll be interesting to see how right the fans are.

scary thing is at the very least, a few fans of certain teams, will be waaay off on the high end. theres only 1230 wins no matter how you look at it.

 

[uolj]

I think homer bias is only part of the reason the win predictions are inflated. There are always some teams that perform well below expectation due to injury or some other difficult to see occurrence (infighting, coach firing/resigning, etc). It is much more rare to see a team pull a Phoenix and do much better than expected than it is for a team to take an unforeseen nosedive.

For example, it is much more likely that injuries leave the Kings with 48-50 wins than it is that they'll gel quickly and get 58-60.

 

[Warhawk]

Wow. Great stuff. You should print this out somewhere/keep a file electronically to see how the final seedings/win totals match up.

 

[NugzFan]

Wow. Great stuff. You should print this out somewhere/keep a file electronically to see how the final seedings/win totals match up.

already planning that.

and gonna do some more stuff with the data...play around with it and see what else i can find.

 

[Warhawk]

already planning that.

and gonna do some more stuff with the data...play around with it and see what else i can find.

Great. If you figure out where they buried Hoffa, let us know.

 

[Andriod_KiNg]

Hahaha... T-Wolves fans are funny... and your wrong about the Laker fans, they have every right to believe they are the worst in the Pacific

 

[ONEZERO]

Wow, good stuff man. Even if I had the time to that I wouldn't, so I give u a lot of props. How long did it take you to do it?

About the seedings and records, I see everything pretty much right except that I don't really see the spurs winning 63 games. And I also think that the kings will have a better record than the mavs. But everything is so close, that I can't really complain too much.

 

[BigWaxer]

I love stats and those are pretty good stats on what/how fans view things. So you went to every team board and did this? Very impressive work.

 

[KP]

Really cool idea^. Most of those win totals might end up being lower than they think, but it does shake out in at least a decent order, minus a few teams here and there.

 

[piksi]

Hahaha... T-Wolves fans are funny... and your wrong about the Laker fans, they have every right to believe they are the worst in the Pacific

I know - we do

 

[bdouble013]

Great bit of research! It should be fun to see what actually happens.

If the seeding is correct at the end of the year I say we forget the regular season and next year have the fans pick the playoff seeds and just start the season from there.

 

[D-Mass]

That was great! And the standings look very close to the way I would place them. Great job!

 

[6th]

Great job, Nugz! Not only did I enjoy the #'s, but I also very much enjoyed your comments and analysis. Thanks for taking the time and then sharing it with us.

 

[love_them_kings]

thanks for all the hard work! Definitely an interesting viewpoint on things.. can't wait to see how teams stack up to their fans expectations!

 

[kingsfan916]

Nice only Dallas is supposed to be below us!

 

[AriesMar27]

Nice only Dallas is supposed to be below us!

so should the suns

 

[slugking50]

Nice job Nugzy!

 

[NugzFan]

Wow, good stuff man. Even if I had the time to that I wouldn't, so I give u a lot of props. How long did it take you to do it?

couple days getting the data, which for the most part, was already sitting around on different boards. the rest was quick and easy.

 

[NugzFan]

I love stats and those are pretty good stats on what/how fans view things. So you went to every team board and did this? Very impressive work.

i either made a thread like i did here or used an existing thread - it was also made easier by the fact that some boards have a sub board for each team so i could quickly go from one to the other.

 

[loopymitch]

Take credit where it's due nugz, you did great job! Just registering for all these sites must have been time consuming enough. Props to you!

 

[NugzFan]

Take credit where it's due nugz, you did great job! Just registering for all these sites must have been time consuming enough. Props to you!

thanks. fortunately i was already registered at many of them (like this one )