If Porter drops to 7

[Turgenev]

A trend in the NBA is to use data and make evidenced based decisions. If this were to extend to health/ medical data, we would stay away from investing in players with a clear injury history. Biggest predictor for future injury = past injury. Biggest predictor of future disabling low back pain = history of low back pain. General consensus of back surgery outcomes = fairly poor (or at least controversial).

Here is a blog post that addresses some of these issues re Tiger Woods, who also had a microdiscectomy: http://blogs.bmj.com/bjsm/2014/08/2...ngs-5-fundamental-questions-into-sharp-focus/

Highlight:
- 'The role of decompressive surgery (micro-discectomy) should be limited to nerve root pain associated with progressive neurological loss (e.g., leg weakness) and cauda equina symptoms'

If the player had a sudden injury (i.e. came off the court after 100 seconds), why give him this surgery? (Obviously, I don't have insight into the players individual circumstances or the surgeons rationale).

I guess it comes down to risk/ reward and opportunity cost. If there is another player available at 6/7/8 that projects to be a strong pro, I go for them. Sacramento is not a team with lots of picks or depth of talent. The draft pick needs to be one of value.

 

[est.1999]

Man, I really don't like Porter.

Between the back injury and his best case being something in the Rudy Gay, gets points but doesn't help you win at all and is actually a net negative, mold of offense only player...

I get that we need a number 1 option, but still.... I'd rather have one of the Bridges.

Isn’t this what they said about Tatum last year? I seem to remember this board not wanting him because he was a Rudy “clone”.

 

[HndsmCelt]

Isn’t this what they said about Tatum last year? I seem to remember this board not wanting him because he was a Rudy “clone”.

Fair enough (and I tend to agree you on this) but I think what it boils down to if Porter is available and the Kings are picking at the 6-8 is are you a gambler? Tatum was a lower risk and went in the top 3. If 5-7 teams have passed on Porter you have to know the risk is up there. Either Briges will get you a solid safe pick for the 3 spot so for the risk adverse it makes sense. I liked the Giles pick in part because we got him so low, but in part also because I think at this point it makes sense to gamble a bit and swing for the fences.

 

[Joshoua]

Isn’t this what they said about Tatum last year? I seem to remember this board not wanting him because he was a Rudy “clone”.

Tatum showed Paul Pierce type game and was a fluid athlete something Porter is not

 

[Mike]

If there's a red flag on his medical, or here doesn't let his team share them with us, then obviously we have to pass on him. But if everything checks out and he's the last of the so-called too seven left on the board, I think we have to take a risk on him and his potential to be a number one option on a team. Unlike the remaining prospects he was considered a potential first pick. I can't see us passing on that opportunity.

Is Mikal Bridges a potentially safer pick? Sure, but his upside is an elite 3-and-D player. It's unlikely he becomes anything more than a Danny Green like player. That's fine if we had a go to scorer on the roster (we don't) or a few potential all stars (arguably we don't).

I suppose Wendell Carter could be an option. He's getting Al Horford comparisons which is a nice thing, but we already have a number of bigs so it might not be the best use of our pick unless we manage to put together a deal surrounding at least one of our current bigs.

After that there's Kevin Konx, but he's boom or bust; Miles Bridges, he's athletic but not likely to be more than a complimentary piece at best; and Colin Sexton is not a great pick because we already have Fox.

So for me Porter makes a ton of sense for us at 7 because he's got the highest ceiling and a decent floor. If he's the next Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson that's ok because that's a 20 a night scorer and a second option. If he amounts to more than that then that's brilliant. Every other prospect is likely to be no more than a complimentary player, Porter can be a star.

 

[allrightythen]

If healthy he compares favorably to Jason Tatum. I think he looks to pass more and is/will be a better rebounder. He's not quite as smooth of an athlete but he appears just as explosive (again, if healthy). I think choosing between him and Mikal Bridges could be hard as I the ceiling on Porter will be considerably higher, but there will be questions on his ability to reach that ceiling. Bridges on the other hand will likely contribute very quickly and do so on both ends.

Bridges will be seen as an unselfish guy and rightfully so, but from what little I can observe/read about Porter he seems like a very good teammate, a hard worker, and a guy who just really cares. I'd have a hard time passing on a healthy Porter.

 

[Mike]

If healthy he compares favorably to Jason Tatum. I think he looks to pass more and is/will be a better rebounder. He's not quite as smooth of an athlete but he appears just as explosive (again, if healthy). I think choosing between him and Mikal Bridges could be hard as I the ceiling on Porter will be considerably higher, but there will be questions on his ability to reach that ceiling. Bridges on the other hand will likely contribute very quickly and do so on both ends.

Bridges will be seen as an unselfish guy and rightfully so, but from what little I can observe/read about Porter he seems like a very good teammate, a hard worker, and a guy who just really cares. I'd have a hard time passing on a healthy Porter.

At this point we do need to take a gamble on upside, but if we believe a line up featuring Fox, Bogdanovic, Mikal, ZBo(?) and Willie can grind their way to victories that might appeal to our front office and coaching staff. Let's put a hard working and efficient at both ends team on the court like the Pacers and go from there. But at the same time we would need a scorer to emerge...

 

[bajaden]

At this point we do need to take a gamble on upside, but if we believe a line up featuring Fox, Bogdanovic, Mikal, ZBo(?) and Willie can grind their way to victories that might appeal to our front office and coaching staff. Let's put a hard working and efficient at both ends team on the court like the Pacers and go from there. But at the same time we would need a scorer to emerge...

Well I'll repeat what I said earlier, and that's if Porter is given a clean bill of health, and he shows well in the workouts, then I would draft him, and I'm a huge Mikal Bridges fan. The key is the clean bill of health. That's the one area where I won't gamble. If they won't show his medical records, or there's even the slightest doubt by the team doctors, then no, I won't draft him.

Also, Mikal comes into the the NBA with the exact same pedigree as Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George. Not many people thought either of them would be stars in the league. Both were thought of as 3 and D players. So there's no guarantee that Bridges won't end up being a better player than a healthy Porter. Bridges is a junior, but he got significantly better every year in college. There's no reason to believe that he's done getting better, and if he can improve on his last year at Villanova, then you might be looking at a star. Big if perhaps, but you never know.

 

[biltalent]

I find it hard to imagine MPJ will end up on the Kings. He is already campaining to get to the Bulls and publicly communicates his love for Chicago. I expect him to not share his medicals with the Kings and not attend workouts. So either he is gone before the Kings pick anyway. Or the Bulls pass on him and he falls but then the Kings really need to ask themselves why the Bulls passed and
if they want to take that risk not seeing the medicals.

 

[allrightythen]

At this point we do need to take a gamble on upside, but if we believe a line up featuring Fox, Bogdanovic, Mikal, ZBo(?) and Willie can grind their way to victories that might appeal to our front office and coaching staff. Let's put a hard working and efficient at both ends team on the court like the Pacers and go from there. But at the same time we would need a scorer to emerge...

I wouldn't mind this scenario at all and I think Bridges will have a long healthy NBA career. I like Porter's upside if healthy though.

 

[allrightythen]

I find it hard to imagine MPJ will end up on the Kings. He is already campaining to get to the Bulls and publicly communicates his love for Chicago. I expect him to not share his medicals with the Kings and not attend workouts. So either he is gone before the Kings pick anyway. Or the Bulls pass on him and he falls but then the Kings really need to ask themselves why the Bulls passed and
if they want to take that risk not seeing the medicals.

What benefit is there to with-holding his medicals from the Kings if the Bulls are his target? If his health is clear, as reports indicate, letting the Kings see them will only serve to increase his value and create more urgency for the Bulls to take him or it will have no impact at all. What did he say about Chicago/the Bulls?

 

[bajaden]

Thought I'd mention that Kevin Huerter declared for the draft. If you haven't heard of him, I posted some video's and info about him in the prospects forum. I really, really like this kid. Just didn't think he would declare this season. It will be interesting to see where they slot him on the draft boards. Think Klay Thompson! Here's one of the video's I posted in the other forum.

 

[jiimbob]

Thought I'd mention that Kevin Huerter declared for the draft. If you haven't heard of him, I posted some video's and info about him in the prospects forum. I really, really like this kid. Just didn't think he would declare this season. It will be interesting to see where they slot him on the draft boards. Think Klay Thompson! Here's one of the video's I posted in the other forum.

Maryland also has Canadian SF Justin Jackson coming out this year. Its hard to tell how good he may become, but he looks legit size and makes some nice passes.

 

[biltalent]

What benefit is there to with-holding his medicals from the Kings if the Bulls are his target? If his health is clear, as reports indicate, letting the Kings see them will only serve to increase his value and create more urgency for the Bulls to take him or it will have no impact at all. What did he say about Chicago/the Bulls?

I don't really know, I'd guess preventing a trade up or he'd rather go to the Cavs or the Knicks. Attending a Kings workout would further signal he expects to fall.
Regarding your second question, he is posting pictures on social media attending Bulls games, how much he likes the city etc. He also signed with a Chicago-based agency that has a working relationship with their FO. So nothing concrete but enough to speculate

 

[Blob]

Porter Jr is a bum. He should have stayed in school. He has chicken legs and launches garbage from 25 feet.

Porter Jr is a big fat zero on D. He will get flattened in the paint trying to create space.

He thinks a pull-up from three feet behind the three point line qualifes as a high percentage look.

When he drives to the hole he is going to get pushed off his line because he is weak with a high center of gravity.

In other words, he sucks!

I would take Miles Bridges and Collin Sexton over Porter Jr seven days a week and twice on Sunday!

Who told you Donovan Mitchell was the next NBA superstar Damian Lillard before last years draft when everyone else was dismissing him?

That's right your good friend Blob

Collin Sexton has Donovan-like skills. He's got that superstar swag. He's a natural scorer and two position player.

You cannot go wrong with this kid. I wish he was a little longer to easily defend SGs but then he would be less likely to last to #7.

But he's got the juke moves and the touch to NBA three. It's all there in terms of fundamentals and shake-and-bake.

Of course we would have to slide Buddy and Boggy to the the three....but look at the teams tearing it up with two smallish line-ups:

- Vic and DC
- Lillard and CJ
- Jrue and Playoff Rondo
- Fox and Sexton?

I have no confidence in Vlade to do something smart and bold like drafting Sexton at #7.

But we need to draft BPA and at #7 I think he may qualify as BPA with the following players likely off the board:

• Ayton
• Bagley
• Doncic
• Bamba

As far as Miles Bridges, this guy is a power player with a feathery touch. He is a composite of James Harden and Blake Griffin without the refinement.

His skills were not put on full display at MSU.

Bridges shoots left and finishes right going to the hole. This unorthodox style will keep defenders off balance.

He has to polish up his handles but I don't see that as a problem.

He also needs to get his physique more tone and increase his wind but he is ony 6 months of intense training from an NBA physique.

By comparison Porter Jr is 2 years away from being one year away in regards to his physique. Pathetic!

I leave you with your careful consideration:

Look at the Kings team TS%: WORST team shooting in the NBA at 52.9%.

With exception of Buddy (54%) and Boggy (56%) you have almost all the rotational players hovering near 50% or lower.

For the team to have any chance to be respectable next year (unlikely) you need dramatic internal improvement (Skal, Fox, Mason, etc) AND external improvement that creates gravity and high percentage shots for themselves and teammates to raise the team TS% closer to 55%.

One of the reason guys like Carter Jr Mikail Bridges and Jaren Jackson are mediocre to underwhelming propositions in my mind if these are players unable to put the ball on the floor more than once or twice before becoming spastically flummoxed!

These "finishers" instead of creators will do NOTHING to improve our team TS%. This is where a guy like Sexton or Miles B (and Julius Randle in free agency) can have dramatic impact since they will command defensive attention.

One more comment on Porter Jr:

I guarantee Mario Hezonja will have a more productive season next year than Porter Jr.

Mario is turning the corner on being an effective player in this league as 6th man or starter.

The Kings would be smart to sign Hezonja if we can get him on 2/10 deal to replace Justin G Leaguer Jackson and if we draft Sexton or MIles B and as long as we reserve enough salary cap to sign Julius Randle!

Getting this team to go in the right direction is not that hard but you are better off to bet Vlade will screw it up than get it right. After all, he thought Justin G Leaguer Jackson was worth the 15th pick.

If a decision maker is so capable of such egregious decision, with OG and Kouzma on the board, and Donovan for the taking if he does not trade down, he may very well be salivating over Porter Jr. right about now.

 

[gunks]

Isn’t this what they said about Tatum last year? I seem to remember this board not wanting him because he was a Rudy “clone”.

Yeah, but Tatum actually tried on defense and was a willing passer, two things Porter Jr isn't known for.

I didn't really like the Rudy comp for Tatum last year, and would have loved if we drafted him, despite being a long time Rudy hater.

Also, Tatum's back isn't jacked up.

 

[Joshoua]

Yeah, but Tatum actually tried on defense and was a willing passer, two things Porter Jr isn't known for.

I didn't really like the Rudy comp for Tatum last year, and would have loved if we drafted him, despite being a long time Rudy hater.

Also, Tatum's back isn't jacked up.

And he was a smooth athlete something Porter wasn’t even in high school

 

[Sactown ExPat]

The Tatum comparisons to Gay were more about, I think, that he doesn’t bring anything extra to the table. Very good player...very nice scorer...perfectly fine defender...has little to no impact on chemistry/culture. Gay and Tatum won’t cause any problems, but neither will be the straw that stirs the drink. That’s fine if you’re the Celtics, but was kind of a big issue for us heading into the last draft. There were a number of lead guards available, and we really had to have one. Tatum, like Gay, will not elevate teams. See under Rudy’s career prior to San Antonio.

 

[jiimbob]

In response to Blobs post about Sexton and Miles Bridges, I too like Sexton and have mentioned him somewhere in these threads. I don't believe he's in the cards though seeing the Kings seem pretty invested in Fox and even Bogdan manning the point. Hey if they passed on Mitchell not once but twice.
Miles Bridges, I'm not sold on. If Blob gets this one right than I will give him some credit for his method.

 

[206Fan]

Yeah, but Tatum actually tried on defense and was a willing passer, two things Porter Jr isn't known for.

I didn't really like the Rudy comp for Tatum last year, and would have loved if we drafted him, despite being a long time Rudy hater.

Also, Tatum's back isn't jacked up.

Rudy comp still isn't too far from Tatum(in terms of skill-level and playing style). I think Tatum is a better 3pt shooter at this stage though.

I haven't really seen any knocks on Porter Jr's defensive effort. Not sure I would compliment Tatum's passing. In 30.5mpg this year, Tatum has averaged 1.6assists. I think Porter Jr could easily mirror that.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I feel like if he falls you can't not take him then again depends who else falls.

 

[Mike]

Well I'll repeat what I said earlier, and that's if Porter is given a clean bill of health, and he shows well in the workouts, then I would draft him, and I'm a huge Mikal Bridges fan. The key is the clean bill of health. That's the one area where I won't gamble. If they won't show his medical records, or there's even the slightest doubt by the team doctors, then no, I won't draft him.

Also, Mikal comes into the the NBA with the exact same pedigree as Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George. Not many people thought either of them would be stars in the league. Both were thought of as 3 and D players. So there's no guarantee that Bridges won't end up being a better player than a healthy Porter. Bridges is a junior, but he got significantly better every year in college. There's no reason to believe that he's done getting better, and if he can improve on his last year at Villanova, then you might be looking at a star. Big if perhaps, but you never know.

That's where you take one of two gambles:

1. Bet on a healthy Porter reaching his upside but accepting he might have a lower floor.

2. Bet on Mikal potentially being something more than a really good to elite 3-and-D player.

The "safer" route is option two because Mikal offers a higher floor and if you get more than that then that's great news. But like you, I'd probably take Porter if everything checks out, but if things don't check out take Mikal. It's a nice choice to have if it comes to it.

 

[Mike]

In response to Blobs post about Sexton and Miles Bridges, I too like Sexton and have mentioned him somewhere in these threads. I don't believe he's in the cards though seeing the Kings seem pretty invested in Fox and even Bogdan manning the point. Hey if they passed on Mitchell not once but twice.
Miles Bridges, I'm not sold on. If Blob gets this one right than I will give him some credit for his method.

There is a scenario where we could try and sell Sexton to the Magic if they take someone else at 5. Would they consider a deal including sending us Gordon if they draft Porter/Bagley?

At that point we could get ourselves a piece to help our rebuild. We'd have to pay him but it could be worth it if we that's best for the team rather than whoever is left when we are drafting

 

[ParniValjak]

If we stay at 7, I think Porter jr. will be our pick. Swinging for the fences like we did with Giles.

 

[sactowndog]

Rudy comp still isn't too far from Tatum(in terms of skill-level and playing style). I think Tatum is a better 3pt shooter at this stage though.

I haven't really seen any knocks on Porter Jr's defensive effort. Not sure I would compliment Tatum's passing. In 30.5mpg this year, Tatum has averaged 1.6assists. I think Porter Jr could easily mirror that.

We need a wing scorer. Porter has the size to be a stretch 4. One concern is will he even give the Kings his medical records? It’s also possible Doncic might fall if people start to question when he will come over. Depending on his current salary it’s possible he could pull a Bogdan and stay in Europe until he can sign without the salary cap.

 

[sactowndog]

Well I'll repeat what I said earlier, and that's if Porter is given a clean bill of health, and he shows well in the workouts, then I would draft him, and I'm a huge Mikal Bridges fan. The key is the clean bill of health. That's the one area where I won't gamble. If they won't show his medical records, or there's even the slightest doubt by the team doctors, then no, I won't draft him.

Also, Mikal comes into the the NBA with the exact same pedigree as Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George. Not many people thought either of them would be stars in the league. Both were thought of as 3 and D players. So there's no guarantee that Bridges won't end up being a better player than a healthy Porter. Bridges is a junior, but he got significantly better every year in college. There's no reason to believe that he's done getting better, and if he can improve on his last year at Villanova, then you might be looking at a star. Big if perhaps, but you never know.

Yeah I like Mikhal Bridges also but I wonder if he’s gone before 7 and Bamba falls.

 

[dude12]

Sexton has been touted by some of the publications as the first PG taken in this draft....possibly by Orlando. It's not like Sexton is a prospect out of left field. Bledsoe comp. But we will have other options that directly fit a need as well as BPA at 7

 

[bajaden]

Maryland also has Canadian SF Justin Jackson coming out this year. Its hard to tell how good he may become, but he looks legit size and makes some nice passes.

I was very surprised when Jackson declared and then hired an agent. He only played in 11 games this past season before his injury, and to be honest, he wasn't blowing my socks off in those 11 games. I think he made a big mistake declaring. That said, I think Hueter is a better prospect. He's a better athlete, and a far better shooter. The first time I saw Hueter play I thought that he had star material in him. What I like is that he improved in every statistical category in his sophmore year including his handles.

 

[bajaden]

Sexton has been touted by some of the publications as the first PG taken in this draft....possibly by Orlando. It's not like Sexton is a prospect out of left field. Bledsoe comp. But we will have other options that directly fit a need as well as BPA at 7

Trust me, Young will be the first PG taken in this draft and I wouldn't be surprised to see Alexander taken before Sexton. I have Sexton going at 21 on my board, and I have Alexander going at 14. I think Young goes in the top 8 somewhere. Hard to predict right now without the lottery being settled.

 

[bajaden]

That's where you take one of two gambles:

1. Bet on a healthy Porter reaching his upside but accepting he might have a lower floor.

2. Bet on Mikal potentially being something more than a really good to elite 3-and-D player.

The "safer" route is option two because Mikal offers a higher floor and if you get more than that then that's great news. But like you, I'd probably take Porter if everything checks out, but if things don't check out take Mikal. It's a nice choice to have if it comes to it.

Yeah, were in agreement. What I can't figure out is how some people on this forum know things about Porter that I don't seem to know, and I've certainly done my due diligence. First, some have said that Tatum is a better athlete than Porter. Really? One of the things that scouts touted about Porter was his athleticism, and when I saw him play in those highschool all star games, the Jordan Classic and the Nike game, I saw nothing to make me believe he wasn't a good athlete.

What I saw was a player that could hit the 3 pt shot, put the ball on the floor and pull up for a mid-range, or continue and attack the basket. As I said, he out played Bagley in one of those games. Beyond that, and a couple of highschool games that I was able to find, I have no other info on him. When Cole Zwicker was asked about Porter prior to the season, he said that in his opinion Porter was the best SF prospect to come out of highschool since Kevin Durant. That he would put him on that level at the same point in time. That's pretty high praise from someone whose opinion I respect.

If people are basing their opinion on the two games he played in after returning from his injury, then I have nothing to say to them. That would be just plain ridiculous.