How many more wins will changes/improvements get us next year?

[iowamcnabb]

Obviously there are a ton of variables that could lead to many different answers to this question but let’s assume the following:
1) new coach
2) top ten draft choice, second rounder
3) Swipa slight improvement
4) Tyrese’s improvement

How many wins do you think each predicted change/ improvement garners?

1) 5 wins- Walton is poor at adjustments and motivation (even though the players like him they don’t appear motivated by him) plus I think with a new coach we can be bottom third instead of historically bad defensively.

2) 1 win- obviously this is unknown since we don’t even know where or who we will pick but I trust Monte to find good players and I’ll assume they add talent and depth that at least gets us a win or two.

3) 2 wins- it’s hard to ask Fox to do much more as far as carrying the load but he could shoot 34 percent from 3 and 75 percent from the line next year. If he does this we win a couple extra games

4) 2 wins- I expect Ty to take a big jump in his second year. 16 points 6 assists more aggressive on Offense and less of a sieve on defense.

You could make an argument having fans back could add a couple games to teams with great fan bases but I think that will be canceled out by the west being even more stacked next year.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Not Walton + 5 wins
If coach is actually good + 5

I could see this team with the right coach being close to .500, so getting past that depends on :
who we draft
finding adequate compensation for Buddy or Bagley if we move on
There aren't really going to be any FA acquisitions unless we dump Holmes.

I'd put the ceiling next year around 45-47 wins. But very possible. We've underachieved since the Barnes acquisition imho.
Floor is 32 wins. Sorry to the tankers but that's just how it is unless Fox misses half the season.

 

[serbiangoat]

Depends a lot if Fox is still the clear #1 guy (last season over 21 games the team was over 500. without him) than its 30-40 wins all over again, I'm really hoping Indiana/76ers fail and maybe the Kings can make a package for Simmons/Sabonis where the Kings get rid of Buddy/Bagley and probably the pick as well.

Desperate upgrades at need at every position other than PG (Fox/Hali) and back up SG (Hali splits time between the two guard spots).

 

[sactowndog]

Depends a lot if Fox is still the clear #1 guy (last season over 21 games the team was over 500. without him) than its 30-40 wins all over again, I'm really hoping Indiana/76ers fail and maybe the Kings can make a package for Simmons/Sabonis where the Kings get rid of Buddy/Bagley and probably the pick as well.

Desperate upgrades at need at every position other than PG (Fox/Hali) and back up SG (Hali splits time between the two guard spots).

i would disagree. I think Fox and Hali are a top level pair when played together. Fox has more of a 2 guard mentality and having Hali to distribute the ball and set up teammates is critical. Very few teams win championships when their point guard is the leading scorer. I think Hali is the perfect running mate with Fox.

Buddy if coming off the bench is a good bench player and Davis could be a good rotation piece also.

our front court on the other hand is a disaster.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

Depends a lot if Fox is still the clear #1 guy (last season over 21 games the team was over 500. without him) than its 30-40 wins all over again, I'm really hoping Indiana/76ers fail and maybe the Kings can make a package for Simmons/Sabonis where the Kings get rid of Buddy/Bagley and probably the pick as well.

Desperate upgrades at need at every position other than PG (Fox/Hali) and back up SG (Hali splits time between the two guard spots).

I think Fox is critical to our success as a team, but I don't think he should come into next season as our primary ball handler. That role should go to Hali. Fox's hyper aggressive, Westbrookian style of point guarding is super entertaining, but it's not really conducive to a winning strategy. If Fox doesn't score right away it often leads to poor possessions overall. As good as Fox is, it's clear he is a score first, pass second guy. Hali is the opposite and it makes him a better fit at the position. I think getting this back court mix correct actually should be our biggest priority for next year.

 

[Spike]

1. I think this team as currently constructed is a .500 team at worst.
Inept starting lineups and coaching thus far have easily netted about 5 losses. That puts us at about .500.
I don't think Walton is playing to the strengths of this team, nor do I think he makes in-game decisions or adjustments properly. A less sucky coach, with this roster, should easily net us an 8 game swing as currently constructed.

2. I think it really depends on who we get in the draft. While I wouldn't pass on BPA, I wouldn't mind if, most things being reasonably equal, you pass on a guard to get someone in the front court. Like if we draft 4, and Cunningham, Mobley, and Green are gone, I'd probably pass on Suggs.

3/4. I think reasonable growth is expected. Haliburton is going to get quite a bit of rest and the ability to work on his game, so I'd expect a lot more growth from him than I would from Fox, who's reasonably close to getting as good as he's gonna get. You know, a guy who has a ho-hum 30 pt, 12 ast game with 0 turnovers.

Ultimately, however, I think all 4 are dependent upon coaching and player development. We get the right coach in, and things look a lot better. The players look faster and smarter, because you have a coach able to utilize the talent on hand. I think Bagley definitely, and Buddy probably, will be moved over the summer. What the returns are will also positively impact the win/loss column, mostly because both of them haven't done much to impact wins this year. That said, I think both could use a change in coaching. The good news is that so can the Kings.

 

[beb0p]

I wish I'm as optimistic as some of y'all but I don't think this team is anywhere close to being .500. You can say Luke held the team back, which has some merit, but it's also true that the Kings are relatively free of injury this season - their best five players hardly missed any games and they played a bunch of games where the other teams' key players are missing. I'd argue Luke's ineptitude cancels out the Kings' good fortune and they are exactly as good as their record indicates - a .400 team give or take.

They need at least another star to partner with Fox to be a .500 team. And they need two more stars if their aspiration is to be a perennial playoff team.

If Hali or Bagley takes it to the next level; and the 2019 Hield comes back and repossess this current version; it'd solves many of the Kings' problems. As it stands, it looks like Bagley is a good 6th man, Hali is a good role player, and Hield is a glorified JR Smith. The Kings need at least another star. Until then, it's probably just more of the same.

You can argue Joeger managed to take this team to almost .500. I'd argue this is not the same team that Joeger coached. The 2018-19 Kings have pieces that are better fit, players who were underrated, and they played a style that caught everyone off guard. This current Kings team has some good individual parts but the team is always going to be less than the sum of its individual parts; and I don't think just playing fast is going to work as well moving forward.
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[pdxKingsFan]

You can argue Joeger managed to take this team to almost .500. I'd argue this is not the same team that Joeger coached. The 2018-19 Kings have pieces that are better fit, players who were underrated, and they played a style that caught everyone off guard. This current Kings team has some good individual parts but the team is always going to be less than the sum of its individual parts; and I don't think just playing fast is going to work as well moving forward.
.

aside from the fact that Buddy has regressed I do believe this is a better team on paper than Joerger had.

 

[beb0p]

aside from the fact that Buddy has regressed I do believe this is a better team on paper than Joerger had.

On paper, I think you can make that argument; but even then I would disagree. If you compare only the 8-9 guys in the rotation, the 2018-19 Kings are a better team. The key word being team, not individuals.

2018-19 Kings have pieces that fit - they have a C played C, a PF played PF, and a SF played SF.

2020-21 Kings tries to fit round pegs in square holes - they have a PF playing C, a SF playing PF, and a SG playing SF.

2018-19 Kings had Bagley, Bogi, and Koufos off the bench. That's a good bench.

2020-21 Kings had Corey Joseph, Whiteside, and Haliburton off the bench. Aside from Hali, the other two had no business in the rotation.

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[mac]

Well I guess it really boils down to who exactly this new coach is. Whoever it is, he needs to come in hitting the ground running - can't have any of that "3 year plan" BS where the first year is apparently spent just teaching terminology and "foundations of how we want to play" or something like that.

So for argument's sake say we get D'Antoni, decide collectively that our identity is going to be top 5 offensive team, try to play a bit of defense here and there; which is what our roster in the current state lends itself to most naturally. Also assuming the same number of games as this season, rather than the likely full 82.

1) New coach: +8 (two 9-game losing streaks, could have probably won 8 out of 18 of those if the team played hard; probably gets more than 8 vs Walton but let's just buffer for not winning some lucky ones e.g. Nuggets tip in, Barnes miracle etc.)

2) Draft pick: +2 at best unless it's a real star. Put it this way, as good as Tyrese has been, how many games has he really helped us win singlehandedly? The new pick hopefully improves the bench and nets us a game or two from better bench production.

3) Swipa: +2 just from expected improvement in FT shooting helping with some close games, unless improvement is in floor leadership (but I would not count that as "slight"). Will be interesting to see what happens with floor spacing once Buddy is gone.

4) Tyrese: +1. I don't see big improvements in Tyrese's game in itself significantly impacting our winning. What I think it will do is bring better balance to the team such that Fox doesn't have to play 40 minutes and score 30+ for us to stand a chance. Maybe that leads to more wins if Fox is generally fresher and can focus more on defense, but I doubt that will really move the needle much during the regular season.