[Grades] Grades v. Blazers 11/11/2016

[206Fan]

YOu may be right about the next step in NBA team building. I'm certainly not able to look into the future.
I caught a glimpse of the first half of the Lakers vs Timberwolves game today during my morning workout and besides the Wiggins heroics, it reminded me of a problem we might have against such teams. The Lakers made KAT basically a perimeter, pick&pop big during the first half. They clogged the middle and the moment he was getting inside they were getting really physical with the ref's letting them play and quickly doubled.
I asked myself what good does it really bring to have someone like Towns on the floor paired with guys like Aldridge or Dieng, if all the opposing D gives you is a 6'11 jumpshooter? You could easily make a case for Towns as the leagues most talented big. But he was being used as some luxury version of Spencer Hawes out there, because the Lakers made everything inside extremely tough.
They did that with a small, quick lineup basically flying all over the floor.
So when it's possible to make one of the best young bigs in the league a perimeter player by using a smallish, athletic lineup against him - what does this mean for the future of the league?
Granted things would be easier for Towns, if he had elite shooters to surround him. But we have to take into account, that every team only has a limited amount of salary. So to get elite players for every roster spot is a really tough task.
A team, which strengths are his big guys, won't be able to be elite on the perimeter and vice versa.
I really love watching bigs, but in terms of teambuilding I'm not entirely convinced anymore, if you should choose a big as your building block or better opt for a scoring guard.

I agree with a lot of what you said. It's easier to build around a scoring guard in today's game. I'd just like to add a little bit and counter a few points.

I guess what it comes down to, imo, is that you NEED an elite PG guard AND 3PT shooting to succeed in today's NBA. KAT has Rubio who cannot score at all. It doesn't help that his pairing mate is Andrew Wiggins who's more of an iso player(they do have a good team 3pt%). AD has bench players in his starting lineup. With Cousins, we don't have an elite PG, and we lack shooters around him.

An extremely common theme with all of these 3 Cs is that they're on teams with lack of floor spacing and don't have elite PGs. I'll just pull up the top 10 teams, because almost all of them share a good PG and 3pt shooting.

Cavs- Irving+3pt shooting
Hawks- Schoreder+3pt shooting
Raptors- Lowry+ no 3pt shooting
Hornets- Walker+3pt
Clippers- CP3+ 3pt
Warriors- Curry+ 3pt
Spurs- NONE +some 3pt
Blazers- Lillard+3pt
Jazz- Hill +3pt
Thunder- Westbrook+3pt

It seems almost inevitable to succeed in the NBA without one or the other. It's one of the reasons why we completely suck.

 

[IfAt1st]

I agree - it's a good discussion about the evolution of the NBA.

You realize, of course - this approach (if an accurate representation of the game as it is today) would invalidate anyone bringing up historical statistics as the basis for their arguments....

 

[Gliesian]

I was being sarcastic........or was I?

If we just had another big to excessively complain over fouls, I think we'd win more games
My point is a we never got a PF to replace him! I'm not a basketballogist, but the sum of Koufos and Cuz seems too slow and gives the opposing team space at the perimeter. Cuz guarding quick guys is just asking for foul trouble. Rudy likes to use his strength and size on other SF when he does his 1 on 1 stuff, so I don't feel PF is effective use of him either.

 

[King Baller]

I agree with you but I want to add that an alternative exlanation is that there are very few very good bigs and typically they go high in the draft. Boogie, AD, Embiid and Towns all were top #5 picks. So in some sorts they are destined to get to a bad team. But I would agree that Sac, Nop and the 76ers so far have failed to build around those guys. I would love to see one team successfully combine a very good post player (Boogie, Embiid) with elite three point shooting. I suppose this is the next step in NBA team building.

The Kings have tried...Jimmer, Marco, Seth, Ben, Nik, Marcus, Patrick....Shooters come to Sacto and can't shoot.

 

[Fora Dragi]

The Kings have tried...Jimmer, Marco, Seth, Ben, Nik, Marcus, Patrick....Shooters come to Sacto and can't shoot.

Ben can shoot. He just can't dribble and shoot.

 

[jcwkings]

You forgot to circle Sacramento Kings Summer League roster studs Donald Sloan and MarShon Brooks there too.


On an unrelated noted, it's also a little sad seeing former Kings killers like Andre Blatche and DeJuan Blair struggling to eke out an existence in China league action.

Also, Stephon Marbury still being alive was a pleasant surprise.

I have always wondered why almost all American NBA guys play in China when they dont make an NBA roster over Europe. Do Chineese teams just have more money to spend on names? Or do Euro teams stay away from those guys? Euroleague is hands down second best competition in the world.

 

[peacelate]

The Kings have tried...Jimmer, Marco, Seth, Ben, Nik, Marcus, Patrick....Shooters come to Sacto and can't shoot.

Jimmer shot .402 from 3 during his stint with the Kings. Seth shot .450 from 3.

 

[hrdboild]

I agree with a lot of what you said. It's easier to build around a scoring guard in today's game. I'd just like to add a little bit and counter a few points.

I guess what it comes down to, imo, is that you NEED an elite PG guard AND 3PT shooting to succeed in today's NBA. KAT has Rubio who cannot score at all. It doesn't help that his pairing mate is Andrew Wiggins who's more of an iso player(they do have a good team 3pt%). AD has bench players in his starting lineup. With Cousins, we don't have an elite PG, and we lack shooters around him.

An extremely common theme with all of these 3 Cs is that they're on teams with lack of floor spacing and don't have elite PGs. I'll just pull up the top 10 teams, because almost all of them share a good PG and 3pt shooting.

Cavs- Irving+3pt shooting
Hawks- Schoreder+3pt shooting
Raptors- Lowry+ no 3pt shooting
Hornets- Walker+3pt
Clippers- CP3+ 3pt
Warriors- Curry+ 3pt
Spurs- NONE +some 3pt
Blazers- Lillard+3pt
Jazz- Hill +3pt
Thunder- Westbrook+3pt

It seems almost inevitable to succeed in the NBA without one or the other. It's one of the reasons why we completely suck.

The Pelicans struggling to win even a single game while Anthony Davis beasts on everyone has been pretty eye opening. OKC and Houston have teams built around one scoring guard and they're winning games. New Orleans and Sacramento have teams built around one scoring big and both are slipping behind. As you pointed out, both teams have something else in common -- non-existent PG play. Portland is particularly interesting because they have really no top-level talent on the inside and they've picked up where they left off last season. Golden State, Toronto, and Cleveland are also very perimeter oriented. The blueprint for succes right now seems to be: (1) crafty guard who can get to the basket and draw fouls regularly (2) at least 2 serious 3pt threats getting heavy minutes (3) a blue collar big who can pile up rebounds, set solid screens, and ideally shoot the long jumper as well. Having a high usage big tends to muck things up because they're taking shots away from your 3pt shooters and giving you 2pt baskets or mediocre foul shooting in return. You just can't score fast enough with a post-centric offense to keep up with all the D'Antoni inspired run-and-gun.

OKC and Cleveland both managed to frustrate Golden State last year by slowing the game down, getting in the passing lanes, and chasing them off the 3pt line but you need some special defenders to pull that off. And if those defenders can't shoot the three or get to the line, it's questionable how much they're actually helping you in the big picture. So how do we get there? Beats me. We need an elite PG but we can't sign one in free agency and our trading assets are limited. Rudy can attack the basket and get to the line but is he staying long-term? Maybe not. Skal seems like an ideal rotation big but he's very raw right now. Casspi should be a big part of any successful run with his size and skillset but he has yet to find his rhythm this season.

I do see a potential winning team next year but it's going to take some patience to pull it off: (elite PG drafted in the lottery) / Bogdanovic / (defensive-minded SF who can create shots and get to the line) / (bulked up Skal) / Cousins

(1) Theoretically Cousins is going to be your guy who grabs tons of boards and sets brutal screens. He's got a big body and he moves his feet well -- I may be in the minority here, but I don't think the high post facilitator role is the best use of his physical tools. He should be able to reduce the TOs dramatically if he can consistently clear out space with a screen and then receive the ball while moving toward the basket. We're really missing that elite PG here because...
(2) A pick and roll with Cousins and an elite PG can be devastating. The Rondo/Cousins pairing was at times last season as Rondo feasted on open corner threes and fed Cousins for easy layups and dunks all game long. Unfortunately the team defense was atrocious so our elite offensive prowess (yes it was elite measured by points, fg%, or 3pt%) didn't really matter.
(3) The next time we have a crapty game I suggest everyone go on Youtube, watch some Bogdanovic highlights and get hyped. He's big for a guard, plays with a chip on his shoulder, can flat out shoot the ball and he's even played some PG for his Euroleague team. Having a second playmaker/ballhandler in the back-court is a luxury we haven't had since the Beno/Tyreke pairing and should allow Joerger to vary the point of attack and keep the defense rotating and out of position.
(4) I like Skal as the big next to Cousins because he can score inside or outside and help to protect the basket on defense. Like so many bigs just starting out in the league he needs to get stronger and develop more of a mean streak but all the tools are there. Remember this kid was a potential #1 overall pick coming out of HS. I'd like to see him get stronger on the boards before thinking about moving him into the starting lineup but that should happen as he fills out more -- he's still just 20 years old.
(5) That leaves the other wing position where we really need Vlade to pool his assets (Gay, McLemore, Koufos, Cauley-Stein, Collison maybe?) and come up with a great young player. You could skew more toward shooting at this position if you get a physical attacking PG or if you get more of a distributor type or a jumpshooter you're going to want someone on the wing who can get to the line consistently. Either way they need to be a smart defender who can move well around the 3pt line and pressure shooters without overplaying them.

Three of these guys are already on the roster (or we own their rights in the case of Bogdanovic) so we're really only looking at adding two players here for a complete turnaround. Eventually we can look at addressing the bench, but we need to get the starting lineup right first.

 

[biltalent]

The Pelicans struggling to win even a single game while Anthony Davis beasts on everyone has been pretty eye opening. OKC and Houston have teams built around one scoring guard and they're winning games. New Orleans and Sacramento have teams built around one scoring big and both are slipping behind. As you pointed out, both teams have something else in common -- non-existent PG play. Portland is particularly interesting because they have really no top-level talent on the inside and they've picked up where they left off last season. Golden State, Toronto, and Cleveland are also very perimeter oriented. The blueprint for succes right now seems to be: (1) crafty guard who can get to the basket and draw fouls regularly (2) at least 2 serious 3pt threats getting heavy minutes (3) a blue collar big who can pile up rebounds, set solid screens, and ideally shoot the long jumper as well. Having a high usage big tends to muck things up because they're taking shots away from your 3pt shooters and giving you 2pt baskets or mediocre foul shooting in return. You just can't score fast enough with a post-centric offense to keep up with all the D'Antoni inspired run-and-gun.

OKC and Cleveland both managed to frustrate Golden State last year by slowing the game down, getting in the passing lanes, and chasing them off the 3pt line but you need some special defenders to pull that off. And if those defenders can't shoot the three or get to the line, it's questionable how much they're actually helping you in the big picture. So how do we get there? Beats me. We need an elite PG but we can't sign one in free agency and our trading assets are limited. Rudy can attack the basket and get to the line but is he staying long-term? Maybe not. Skal seems like an ideal rotation big but he's very raw right now. Casspi should be a big part of any successful run with his size and skillset but he has yet to find his rhythm this season.

I do see a potential winning team next year but it's going to take some patience to pull it off: (elite PG drafted in the lottery) / Bogdanovic / (defensive-minded SF who can create shots and get to the line) / (bulked up Skal) / Cousins

(1) Theoretically Cousins is going to be your guy who grabs tons of boards and sets brutal screens. He's got a big body and he moves his feet well -- I may be in the minority here, but I don't think the high post facilitator role is the best use of his physical tools. He should be able to reduce the TOs dramatically if he can consistently clear out space with a screen and then receive the ball while moving toward the basket. We're really missing that elite PG here because...
(2) A pick and roll with Cousins and an elite PG can be devastating. The Rondo/Cousins pairing was at times last season as Rondo feasted on open corner threes and fed Cousins for easy layups and dunks all game long. Unfortunately the team defense was atrocious so our elite offensive prowess (yes it was elite measured by points, fg%, or 3pt%) didn't really matter.
(3) The next time we have a poopooty game I suggest everyone go on Youtube, watch some Bogdanovic highlights and get hyped. He's big for a guard, plays with a chip on his shoulder, can flat out shoot the ball and he's even played some PG for his Euroleague team. Having a second playmaker/ballhandler in the back-court is a luxury we haven't had since the Beno/Tyreke pairing and should allow Joerger to vary the point of attack and keep the defense rotating and out of position.
(4) I like Skal as the big next to Cousins because he can score inside or outside and help to protect the basket on defense. Like so many bigs just starting out in the league he needs to get stronger and develop more of a mean streak but all the tools are there. Remember this kid was a potential #1 overall pick coming out of HS. I'd like to see him get stronger on the boards before thinking about moving him into the starting lineup but that should happen as he fills out more -- he's still just 20 years old.
(5) That leaves the other wing position where we really need Vlade to pool his assets (Gay, McLemore, Koufos, Cauley-Stein, Collison maybe?) and come up with a great young player. You could skew more toward shooting at this position if you get a physical attacking PG or if you get more of a distributor type or a jumpshooter you're going to want someone on the wing who can get to the line consistently. Either way they need to be a smart defender who can move well around the 3pt line and pressure shooters without overplaying them.

Three of these guys are already on the roster (or we own their rights in the case of Bogdanovic) so we're really only looking at adding two players here for a complete turnaround. Eventually we can look at addressing the bench, but we need to get the starting lineup right first.

This! I agree with you wholeheartedly. My approach to build a good playoff team around Cuz would be quite similar. On the one hand, you need to be at least competitive in the next 1 1/2 years to get Cousins to resign. This is were I see the value of Rudy, Collison, Temple, Aflallo and Barnes. On the other hand, I think we can all agree that these vets are not going to get us very deep into the playoffs. I agree with you that the core we have right now for this second phase is Cuz, and assuming they hit, Skal and Bogdanovic. I am very high on them and therefore, as you said, only a good PG and SF is needed. So basically we have Wcs, Ben, PapaG, Malachi and potential top ten pick to get there. Further I would suggest to consolidate Willie and Ben rather sooner than later. I dont think their value will get higher than it is right now, not with our deep roster and their erratic play. As said in another thread, getting Stanley Johnson or Justin Anderson would be really good. Two other names on our radar could be Terry Rozier or Cam Payne.

Edit: one scenario I would consider:
- Trade Wcs + Ben to Boston for Rozier and a future pick
- See if we keep our pick. If yes decide if you want a SF (Anunoby?) or try another point guard (Ntilikina, Fox, Jackson, Ball?) or flip it for the missing young guy, f.e. Johnson. If not, consolidate PapaG+Richardson to get your SF.
- Resign Rudy+Darren to stay competitive

So you get to: Collison, Temple, Gay, Koufos, Cousins with a young core of Rozier, Bogdanovic, Johnson/Anunoby, Skal. Not too bad!

 

[KingsFanGER]

I think some of you are overvaluing Rozier quite a bit. I like him. I really do. But it doesn't look like he is the next big thing at PG or something like that. He is solid, a great athlete and plays very hard on both ends. But Willie ( maybe one of the most fascinating big man projects of the league) and Ben ( a potential solid to good NBA SG) for Rozier and a pick (Nets picks might lose a lot of value with the way the Nets are playing)? I don't know guys. This is quite a lot you give up for Rozier.

 

[biltalent]

I think some of you are overvaluing Rozier quite a bit. I like him. I really do. But it doesn't look like he is the next big thing at PG or something like that. He is solid, a great athlete and plays very hard on both ends. But Willie ( maybe one of the most fascinating big man projects of the league) and Ben ( a potential solid to good NBA SG) for Rozier and a pick (Nets picks might lose a lot of value with the way the Nets are playing)? I don't know guys. This is quite a lot you give up for Rozier.

Mhh I would go even one step further and say Willie and Rozier are about equal value for me right now. But you are right, this probably says more about my disappointment in Willie than my faith in Rozier. I see Rozier as an upgraded version of Beverley. He can certainly help you but not carry you. But I don't think Willies value is high right now. Other teams would want to play him as a C and right now he is not able to do this even against back ups.

 

[Bricklayer]

grass is always greener and stuff?

P.S. BTW, anybody who had looked at the Pelicans roster should have absolutely no doubt why they are losing. Take A.D. off that team and there are D-league teams that would beat them. And I'm not being colorful -- that's a D-league roster. What IS interesting is how A.D. isn't having the +/- impact you would expect. And all of this about great bigs, can;t build offenses...etc.e etc., that's missing the point. DeMarcus Cousins is an absolutely ENORMOUS +/- presence for our offense this year (+14.7). A.D. is an absolutely ENORMOUS presence for his team this team (+13.4). For comparison, LeBron is a +6.0, and Lillard is a +7.6. But the bizarre thing about A.D. is that in 11 games, more than 1/8 of the season, his team is a pathetic +12.3pts WORSE on defense during his time on the floor. Its almost inexplicable.

 

[KingsFanGER]

Mhh I would go even one step further and say Willie and Rozier are about equal value for me right now. But you are right, this probably says more about my disappointment in Willie than my faith in Rozier. I see Rozier as an upgraded version of Beverley. He can certainly help you but not carry you. But I don't think Willies value is high right now. Other teams would want to play him as a C and right now he is not able to do this even against back ups.

I get that. We all are disappointed with the way Willie is playing this season. But why shouldn't Willie be able to play C? As with every younger player, you don't look exclusively at the status quo, but more at the potential. And with a little polishing here and there and a major overhaul in terms of approaching the game and general mindset Willie might still be something special in a league, that is more and more about mobility and versatility at the defensive end. He is not a skilled basketball player. But no doubt he is a once in a decade athlete. That has to be good for something right? Or is, this just wishful thinking of a Kings fan.
I just want the Kings to finally develop a player. Every other organisation does it too.

 

[biltalent]

I get that. We all are disappointed with the way Willie is playing this season. But why shouldn't Willie be able to play C? As with every younger player, you don't look exclusively at the status quo, but more at the potential. And with a little polishing here and there and a major overhaul in terms of approaching the game and general mindset Willie might still be something special in a league, that is more and more about mobility and versatility at the defensive end. He is not a skilled basketball player. But no doubt he is a once in a decade athlete. That has to be good for something right? Or is, this just wishful thinking of a Kings fan.
I just want the Kings to finally develop a player. Every other organisation does it too.

You are right, it could very well be that Willie turns out to be something special. In that case it would be wise to hold on to him. But I can also why it would be the right decision to move him before it is to late. Im just glad Im not the one who has to make that decision

 

[twslam07]

grass is always greener and stuff?

P.S. BTW, anybody who had looked at the Pelicans roster should have absolutely no doubt why they are losing. Take A.D. off that team and there are D-league teams that would beat them. And I'm not being colorful -- that's a D-league roster. What IS interesting is how A.D. isn't having the +/- impact you would expect. And all of this about great bigs, can;t build offenses...etc.e etc., that's missing the point. DeMarcus Cousins is an absolutely ENORMOUS +/- presence for our offense this year (+14.7). A.D. is an absolutely ENORMOUS presence for his team this team (+13.4). For comparison, LeBron is a +6.0, and Lillard is a +7.6. But the bizarre thing about A.D. is that in 11 games, more than 1/8 of the season, his team is a pathetic +12.3pts WORSE on defense during his time on the floor. Its almost inexplicable.

Comparing the raw on/off numbers without context is dangerous. The Kings have lacked scoring options this year and so have the Pelicans. You would expect they would have the advantage to have a bigger ORTG On/Off vs. guys like LeBron who have Irving, Love, Smith, etc. to help score the ball. I could also argue that since our team is still learning the system and offense, that we have to rely more on individual talent to score the ball rather than teams like Cleveland & Portland who have been together longer, know their system, and are effective at scoring as a team. So when guys like Cousins & Davis go off the court, the team stalls either because of lack of scoring talent or the fact that they can't score as a team effectively (chemistry, learning a system, etc.).

Not only did we not have many scorers on our roster, but we didn't have any offensive big men who replace Cousins in the lineup. This again will help Cousins post stronger On/Off numbers on the offensive end.

As for Davis & his less than excitable DRTG On/Off, his team does consist of a bunch of scrubs right now, and there is not much difference in talent from the starters and bench. Let's say that Davis plays most of his minutes against the opposing teams starters, then you can think of the matchups like this:

Davis & his fellow starters vs. opposing team's starters (#s represent talent/skill level):
Pelicans
PG - 5
SG - 5
SF - 5
PF - 10
C - 5
Total = 30

vs.

Oppposing Team
PG - 8
SG - 8
SF - 8
PF - 8
C - 8
Total = 40

***Difference = -10***

Pelicans bench vs. opposing team's bench (#s represent talent/skill level):
Pelicans
PG - 5
SG - 5
SF - 5
PF - 5
C - 5
Total = 25

vs.

Oppposing Team
PG - 6
SG - 6
SF - 6
PF - 6
C - 6
Total = 30

***Difference = -5***

All I'm trying to explain here is that it's possible that it's easier to slow down opponents on defense when Davis is off the court because opposing teams play their bench squad when Davis is off. It could basically come down to the Pelican's bench being closer talent wise to the opposing team's bench vs. the Pelicans starters being closer talent wise to the opposing teams starters. Again, On/Off have to be taken with a grain of salt as it doesn't account for the quality of teammates you play with, the quality of teammates that replace you, and the opponents you play against. Those are 3 big factors that must be considered when interpreting this data.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I think I have divined our decade-long problem -- we just play in the wrong league.

The Sacramento Kings: come see tomorrow's Chinese League All-Stars... TODAY!

... Also, Stephon Marbury still being alive was a pleasant surprise.

Speak for yourself.

 

[KingsFanGER]

Comparing the raw on/off numbers without context is dangerous. The Kings have lacked scoring options this year and so have the Pelicans. You would expect they would have the advantage to have a bigger ORTG On/Off vs. guys like LeBron who have Irving, Love, Smith, etc. to help score the ball. I could also argue that since our team is still learning the system and offense, that we have to rely more on individual talent to score the ball rather than teams like Cleveland & Portland who have been together longer, know their system, and are effective at scoring as a team. So when guys like Cousins & Davis go off the court, the team stalls either because of lack of scoring talent or the fact that they can't score as a team effectively (chemistry, learning a system, etc.).

Not only did we not have many scorers on our roster, but we didn't have any offensive big men who replace Cousins in the lineup. This again will help Cousins post stronger On/Off numbers on the offensive end.

As for Davis & his less than excitable DRTG On/Off, his team does consist of a bunch of scrubs right now, and there is not much difference in talent from the starters and bench. Let's say that Davis plays most of his minutes against the opposing teams starters, then you can think of the matchups like this:

Davis & his fellow starters vs. opposing team's starters (#s represent talent/skill level):
Pelicans
PG - 5
SG - 5
SF - 5
PF - 10
C - 5
Total = 30

vs.

Oppposing Team
PG - 8
SG - 8
SF - 8
PF - 8
C - 8
Total = 40

***Difference = -10***

Pelicans bench vs. opposing team's bench (#s represent talent/skill level):
Pelicans
PG - 5
SG - 5
SF - 5
PF - 5
C - 5
Total = 25

vs.

Oppposing Team
PG - 6
SG - 6
SF - 6
PF - 6
C - 6
Total = 30

***Difference = -5***

All I'm trying to explain here is that it's possible that it's easier to slow down opponents on defense when Davis is off the court because opposing teams play their bench squad when Davis is off. It could basically come down to the Pelican's bench being closer talent wise to the opposing team's bench vs. the Pelicans starters being closer talent wise to the opposing teams starters. Again, On/Off have to be taken with a grain of salt as it doesn't account for the quality of teammates you play with, the quality of teammates that replace you, and the opponents you play against. Those are 3 big factors that must be considered when interpreting this data.

Portland overhauled their roster last year and made the Playoffs.
They lost 10 players to FA in 2015-16 and added 8 players. They won 44 games, beat the Clippers and had some pretty decent games against the Warriors.
I'm not sure, if the "excuse" we don't win, because we don't know how to play as a team or don't know our system well enough is a good one in this context.
After all we added 5 FA's and only lost 3 meaningful rotation players in Rondo, Bellinelli and Acy with Curry as a late season finding.

What's the difference between the Kings and the Blazers? For once it's not coaching competence - thank god! But it's roster management.
The Blazers have 4 athletic wings able to defend 1-4. They have 3 (4 if you count Vonleh) defensive bigs able to step out on D, with two of them able to stretch the floor on offense (Leonard, Vonleh). On top of that every big is a very good rim runner able to keep up with the pace of their guards and wings. And they have 2 scoring guards and top notch ball handlers to make it all work. To round it all out they have Jake Layman, who already looks like he is able to contribute as a rookie in this league.

We on the other hand.....

 

[twslam07]

Portland overhauled their roster last year and made the Playoffs.
They lost 10 players to FA in 2015-16 and added 8 players. They won 44 games, beat the Clippers and had some pretty decent games against the Warriors.
I'm not sure, if the "excuse" we don't win, because we don't know how to play as a team or don't know our system well enough is a good one in this context.
After all we added 5 FA's and only lost 3 meaningful rotation players in Rondo, Bellinelli and Acy with Curry as a late season finding.

What's the difference between the Kings and the Blazers? For once it's not coaching competence - thank god! But it's roster management.
The Blazers have 4 athletic wings able to defend 1-4. They have 3 (4 if you count Vonleh) defensive bigs able to step out on D, with two of them able to stretch the floor on offense (Leonard, Vonleh). On top of that every big is a very good rim runner able to keep up with the pace of their guards and wings. And they have 2 scoring guards and top notch ball handlers to make it all work. To round it all out they have Jake Layman, who already looks like he is able to contribute as a rookie in this league.

We on the other hand.....

This has nothing to do with my post. Not sure why you quoted me...

 

[KingsFanGER]

Comparing the raw on/off numbers without context is dangerous. The Kings have lacked scoring options this year and so have the Pelicans. You would expect they would have the advantage to have a bigger ORTG On/Off vs. guys like LeBron who have Irving, Love, Smith, etc. to help score the ball. I could also argue that since our team is still learning the system and offense, that we have to rely more on individual talent to score the ball rather than teams like Cleveland & Portland who have been together longer, know their system, and are effective at scoring as a team. So when guys like Cousins & Davis go off the court, the team stalls either because of lack of scoring talent or the fact that they can't score as a team effectively (chemistry, learning a system, etc.).

Because of the bolded part, which for me is relatively hard to believe with Portlands season from last year in mind.

On second thought let me add, that I think this might be a viable explanation for our early season struggles, especially when we keep the schedule in mind. But later on in the season, it becomes more and more of a empty excuse, if we are still not winning.
Let's wait and see.

 

[twslam07]

Because of the bolded part, which for me is relatively hard to believe with Portlands season from last year in mind.

On second thought let me add, that I think this might be a viable explanation for our early season struggles, especially when we keep the schedule in mind. But later on in the season, it becomes more and more of a empty excuse, if we are still not winning.
Let's wait and see.

The comment is in reference to on/off stats directed at Cousins...

 

[KingsFanGER]

The comment is in reference to on/off stats directed at Cousins...

Yeah..whatever.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I do see a potential winning team next year but it's going to take some patience to pull it off: (elite PG drafted in the lottery) / Bogdanovic / (defensive-minded SF who can create shots and get to the line) / (bulked up Skal) / Cousins

That plan might make sense long-term, but I have a hard time seeing it pencil out next year. Even the most elite lottery PGs are rarely ready in year one. Skal seems like he's more than just one year off. Bogdanovic is a complete wild card. So, maybe that all works out, but I see it as more realistic for that lineup to start winning in two, maybe three years.

But then, of course, has Cousins already walked?

 

[kingsboi]

You are right, it could very well be that Willie turns out to be something special. In that case it would be wise to hold on to him. But I can also why it would be the right decision to move him before it is to late. Im just glad Im not the one who has to make that decision

More players than not that have been drafted by the Kings and then left Sacramento have not become relevant or at least not yet, the only one is IT and Tyreke to a small extent, but he can't stay on the court so he is borderline irrelevant for the Pelicans. What does that tell you? It's not only about player development...sometimes it's the players that are drafted, regardless of the situations, they just do not end up being productive players or they are undersized, lack a number of skills, etc. Kings are the best at drafting those type of players.

 

[hrdboild]

That plan might make sense long-term, but I have a hard time seeing it pencil out next year. Even the most elite lottery PGs are rarely ready in year one. Skal seems like he's more than just one year off. Bogdanovic is a complete wild card. So, maybe that all works out, but I see it as more realistic for that lineup to start winning in two, maybe three years.

But then, of course, has Cousins already walked?

That depends on what you mean by "start winning". Would going 40-42 qualify as starting to win? That would still be a significant improvement from where we are now. And there's a big difference to me between patching together a team of aging mercenaries and winning 40 games and building a solid foundation of players in their early 20s around DeMarcus and winning 40 games. Even if you reach the playoffs with your veteran team, you're going to have to build a completely new team every year to sustain it. There's very little precedent for that. Teams that win consistently build a core group of players and keep them together. If it's too late to build a young team around Cousins and keep him here than we should trade him. Emotions aside, he's either a part of a winning future or he's not. If he's not than we need to get someone who is. I think he will stick around if he sees signs of progress which means keeping the same coach and approaching .500 next season...

That should be doable even with a rookie backcourt. When chemistry clicks and the talent is there to back it up, things can turn around quickly (JWill and Peja were core pieces of a winning team in their rookie seasons). Skal probably isn't ready yet so we should look for a stopgap veteran in free agency there while continuing to mold him for a bigger role. But I don't want to see us patching holes at PG, SG, and SF with short-term rentals anymore. Get a top PG in here ASAP. Develop the young talent we have. Find a stud wing player who can be a core part of the team. Those guys are out there -- Portland picked Harkless up for nothing a couple years ago. Orlando got Tobias Harris for spare parts when he was rotting at the end of Milwaukee's bench. Jae Crowder was traded for a few months of Rondo.

If the specter of Cousins leaving is going to force our hand into taking shortcuts instead of building a team the right way, it's just going to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'd rather have the lineup I outlined before minus Cousins than a gradual death spiral of Cousins-led teams that can't seem to crack the 40 win threshold. Other teams in the league are winning without franchise big men, we can too if we follow the elitePG/shooter/2-way forward model they're using. I just want to see this team shake off a decade of losing and find a formula that actually works for a change. We're going nowhere fast on the path we're currently on.

 

[twslam07]

That depends on what you mean by "start winning". Would going 40-42 qualify as starting to win? That would still be a significant improvement from where we are now. And there's a big difference to me between patching together a team of aging mercenaries and winning 40 games and building a solid foundation of players in their early 20s around DeMarcus and winning 40 games. Even if you reach the playoffs with your veteran team, you're going to have to build a completely new team every year to sustain it. There's very little precedent for that. Teams that win consistently build a core group of players and keep them together. If it's too late to build a young team around Cousins and keep him here than we should trade him. Emotions aside, he's either a part of a winning future or he's not. If he's not than we need to get someone who is. I think he will stick around if he sees signs of progress which means keeping the same coach and approaching .500 next season...

That should be doable even with a rookie backcourt. When chemistry clicks and the talent is there to back it up, things can turn around quickly (JWill and Peja were core pieces of a winning team in their rookie seasons). Skal probably isn't ready yet so we should look for a stopgap veteran in free agency there while continuing to mold him for a bigger role. But I don't want to see us patching holes at PG, SG, and SF with short-term rentals anymore. Get a top PG in here ASAP. Develop the young talent we have. Find a stud wing player who can be a core part of the team. Those guys are out there -- Portland picked Harkless up for nothing a couple years ago. Orlando got Tobias Harris for spare parts when he was rotting at the end of Milwaukee's bench. Jae Crowder was traded for a few months of Rondo.

If the specter of Cousins leaving is going to force our hand into taking shortcuts instead of building a team the right way, it's just going to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'd rather have the lineup I outlined before minus Cousins than a gradual death spiral of Cousins-led teams that can't seem to crack the 40 win threshold. Other teams in the league are winning without franchise big men, we can too if we follow the elitePG/shooter/2-way forward model they're using. I just want to see this team shake off a decade of losing and find a formula that actually works for a change. We're going nowhere fast on the path we're currently on.

I really couldn't agree more.

It would obviously be hard to see Cousins go, but it's becoming increasingly more difficult to see how we would be able to build a team the right way around Cousins with what little time he has left on his contract. We can obviously start building the right way and hope Cousins' loyalty and patience is 2nd to none, but that is very risky as we could simply lose him for nothing in the 2018 offseason (and I wouldn't blame him at all for leaving).

If we do move on from Cousins, I have a hard time seeing us trade him to a team in the Western conference. I'm thinking that the following teams may be interested...

Boston - J. Brown/Smart/Rozier/'17 BKN Swap/'18 BKN Swap
Indiana - Turner/'17 IND 1st/'19 IND 1st
Milwaukee - Parker/Maker/'17 MIL 1st/'19 MIL 1st
New York - Porzingis/'17 NYK 1st/'19 NYK 1st
Orlando - Gordon/Hezonja/'17 ORL 1st/'19 ORL 1st/'19 LAL 1st
Philadelphia - Embiid/Okafor/Saric/Luwawu/'17 PHI 1st/'17 LAL 1st/'19 PHI 1st/'19 SAC 1st

Just to be clear, I'm not saying we would get all of these assets from each team. I just wanted to list out the assets that would be of interest to us.

I'd probably shy away from Orlando & Philadelphia as I don't see Gordon as a potential franchise talent and Embiid's injury history is tough to gamble on. Same with Boston. If Brooklyn starts falling off, we can then consider those pick swaps to be a potential franchise player, but until then, I'm just seeing 2nd tier level talent coming back. I'd probably choose between a package that includes Porzingis, Turner, or Parker if those teams were interested.

 

[pshn80]

I really couldn't agree more.

It would obviously be hard to see Cousins go, but it's becoming increasingly more difficult to see how we would be able to build a team the right way around Cousins with what little time he has left on his contract. We can obviously start building the right way and hope Cousins' loyalty and patience is 2nd to none, but that is very risky as we could simply lose him for nothing in the 2018 offseason (and I wouldn't blame him at all for leaving).

If we do move on from Cousins, I have a hard time seeing us trade him to a team in the Western conference. I'm thinking that the following teams may be interested...

Boston - J. Brown/Smart/Rozier/'17 BKN Swap/'18 BKN Swap
Indiana - Turner/'17 IND 1st/'19 IND 1st
Milwaukee - Parker/Maker/'17 MIL 1st/'19 MIL 1st
New York - Porzingis/'17 NYK 1st/'19 NYK 1st
Orlando - Gordon/Hezonja/'17 ORL 1st/'19 ORL 1st/'19 LAL 1st
Philadelphia - Embiid/Okafor/Saric/Luwawu/'17 PHI 1st/'17 LAL 1st/'19 PHI 1st/'19 SAC 1st

Just to be clear, I'm not saying we would get all of these assets from each team. I just wanted to list out the assets that would be of interest to us.

I'd probably shy away from Orlando & Philadelphia as I don't see Gordon as a potential franchise talent and Embiid's injury history is tough to gamble on. Same with Boston. If Brooklyn starts falling off, we can then consider those pick swaps to be a potential franchise player, but until then, I'm just seeing 2nd tier level talent coming back. I'd probably choose between a package that includes Porzingis, Turner, or Parker if those teams were interested.

Let's concentrate now on winning with what we have now. Cousins and Afflalo have one thing in common, they are only as good as how many wins they can get us now and the rest of the season.

 

[Bricklayer]

I really couldn't agree more.

It would obviously be hard to see Cousins go, but it's becoming increasingly more difficult to see how we would be able to build a team the right way around Cousins with what little time he has left on his contract. We can obviously start building the right way and hope Cousins' loyalty and patience is 2nd to none, but that is very risky as we could simply lose him for nothing in the 2018 offseason (and I wouldn't blame him at all for leaving).

If we do move on from Cousins, I have a hard time seeing us trade him to a team in the Western conference. I'm thinking that the following teams may be interested...

Boston - J. Brown/Smart/Rozier/'17 BKN Swap/'18 BKN Swap
Indiana - Turner/'17 IND 1st/'19 IND 1st
Milwaukee - Parker/Maker/'17 MIL 1st/'19 MIL 1st
New York - Porzingis/'17 NYK 1st/'19 NYK 1st
Orlando - Gordon/Hezonja/'17 ORL 1st/'19 ORL 1st/'19 LAL 1st
Philadelphia - Embiid/Okafor/Saric/Luwawu/'17 PHI 1st/'17 LAL 1st/'19 PHI 1st/'19 SAC 1st

Just to be clear, I'm not saying we would get all of these assets from each team. I just wanted to list out the assets that would be of interest to us.

I'd probably shy away from Orlando & Philadelphia as I don't see Gordon as a potential franchise talent and Embiid's injury history is tough to gamble on. Same with Boston. If Brooklyn starts falling off, we can then consider those pick swaps to be a potential franchise player, but until then, I'm just seeing 2nd tier level talent coming back. I'd probably choose between a package that includes Porzingis, Turner, or Parker if those teams were interested.

The myth is that there is a "right way" to build a team.

 

[twslam07]

The myth is that there is a "right way" to build a team.

I haven't heard a better suggestion from you yet.

And it's not that there is just one right way. The way I worded that doesn't make that clear but there is one way that gives us the greatest shot at being a very competitive team one day.

Relying on older veterans to make us look respectable enough to actually sign a long term piece that will be a part of our core is a little unrealistic in my eyes. We need to focus on acquiring assets that will be apart of our core going forward. Guys like Afflalo, Temple, Barnes, & Tolliver do not seem like long term pieces considering their talent, age, and contract. Then you have guys like Collison, Lawson, Gay, & Casspi who can walk for nothing next year. Our roster is not in a good spot right now. The only players who are not expiring and that I can see being a part of our core for the next 5+ years are Bogdanovic, Richardson, McLemore, Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, Papagiannis, & Cousins. That future is not too bright.

Moving guys like Gay, Collison, & Casspi for some future assets might hurt us this year, but it would improve our assets and manageable contracts going forward while also making sure we don't bleed talent in the offseason. Something like Portis, CHI 2017 1st, & Rondo for Collison & Gay is something that could benefit both teams. Casspi for Delon Wright could be another decent move as well. That leaves us with Wright, Bogdanovic, Richardson, McLemore, Portis, Labissiere, Cauley-Stein, Papagiannis, Cousins, SAC 2017 1st, & CHI 2017 1st as our core moving forward with guys like Temple, Barnes, Koufos, & Afflalo/Tolliver as the stopgap vets.

Is that team/core enough to convince Cousins to resign? I don't know. I would say there's probably a good chance he still leaves, but again, I don't think we're going to be able to improve the team through FA next year all that much so we might as well focus on collecting assets that we can develop into good players. If Cousins does leave, we at least have young assets to start the rebuild rather than a bunch of 30 year old journeyman who's contracts we'll have to wait to expire.

PG - 2017 1st / Wright / Temple
SG - McLemore / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Afflalo / Barnes / 2017 1st
PF - Portis / Cauley-Stein / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Koufos / Papagiannis

Ideally, we're relying on Cousins & Cauley-Stein/Papagiannis for all of minutes at C by next season which should allow us to move Koufos for another late pick, move up in the draft a slot or two, or pickup another young asset.

If we do get indications that Cousins would leave or we're not wanting to risk it, dealing Cousins to Milwaukee for Parker, Plumlee, 2017 1st, & 2019 1st would be a good return and help add to the rebuild.

PG - 2017 1st / Wright / Temple
SG - McLemore / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Parker / 2017 1st / 2017 1st
PF - Portis / Labissiere
C - Cauley-Stein / Koufos / Plumlee / Papagiannis

 

[hrdboild]

The myth is that there is a "right way" to build a team.

There is certainly a wrong way -- and that's everything we've been doing for the last 10 years. So while there may not be a (singular) right way, there exist team-building options which contrast with what we've been doing (bungling the draft, trading players on rookie deals for cap space, overpaying for disappointing veterans, swapping coaches every year). We act like draft pick are unimportant (traded a conditional pick just to swap Omri for Hickson, traded down to pick Jimmer, traded Thomas Robinson after a few months, traded Nik and an unprotected first round pick for cap space) -- that's the wrong way. We waste our cap space on pointless signings (Tolliver isn't even in the rotation right now and Vlade just gave him $10 million guaranteed contract, Afflalo is making $12.5 million this year just to make Ben McLemore look better) -- that's the wrong way. We hang onto assets until they have no trade value and then lose them for nothing (Tyreke, IT, Seth Curry, eventually Rudy Gay and Darren Collison perhaps) -- that's the wrong way.

If I were to sum up all these points together, it would be this: (1) maximize your assets by buying low on young talent and/or first round picks and developing them into valuable players and (2) let overpaid veterans go (preferably via trade) before they become a liability. We are 1 of 30 teams trying to win a championship and 1 of 15 teams trying to win a playoff spot in the Western Conference. That's not going to happen without some kind of competitive advantage. The Lakers historically have succeeded with name recognition and deep pockets. Golden State right now is succeeding with quality talent scouting and state of the art medical expertise. San Antonio succeeds in a small market by getting a lot out of late draft picks and running a system that allows one-dimensional role-players to flourish. We've been carving out the same ditch for a decade. Until we find something we don't suck at (from a team-building point of view that is), this is all pointless.