Goran Dragic informed the Suns he will NOT resign this offseason.

Rudy's had a ton a pretty good years to this point. Dragic has 1 or 2. Furthermore, the Kings traded for Rudy Gay well over a year ago when he was 2 years younger than Dragic would be when he'd first play for whatever team he ends up on.



Have you watched him play over the years? Do you understand what you're watching? If the answer to both questions is yes, you wouldn't be contesting.

Yes, we all know he's played off the ball next to Bledsoe. If things went so well, we wouldn't be having this discussion because all would be well in Phoenix. Lastly, when you shoot and score a lot more than you assist as a PG, that's known as ball dominant.




He'd be a definite downgrade on the defensive end.

This team was winning when it played defense early in the season. They don't need an upgrade on offense. They have enough players that can score the ball. They need defense and better ball movement.

Collison is more of a real PG than Dragic. Neither are pure PG's, but Collison plays better defense (when fully healthy) and, over the course of his career, doesn't average double-digit shot attempts like Dragic does. Collison has averaged about the same amount of assists as a backup PG as Dragic has as a starter. There's good reason for that. He's a bit better at getting his teammates involved.



Yes, he is. And largely a pick and roll PG too.

If they were planning to use him as a SG, I'd agree that his shooting ability and movement without the ball would be beneficial. But his defense is still too woeful to play that position for 30+ minutes per night.

Lowry would have been an upgrade. Dragic is not.

A little after the fact now, but I definitely disagree with you on many of the points you tried to make. As a SG, i might agree with you, but not as a PG. For one thing, Dragic's defensive rating as a PG is 101.0, which is excellent, while his defensive rating at SG is 110.6, which isn't very good. So obviously he defends better at the PG positon. The reason he's leaving the Suns is because he hates playing SG. Now perhaps the lends itself to his poor defense. Don't know, but my point is, he can be a very good defender, and I saw him give some of our PG's fits when he was defending them. I grant you the Dragic is a PG that needs the ball in his hands to be effective. But so does Steve Nash. Is Steve Nash an isolation player? I think not! Yes, Dragic may end up taking 12 to 14 shots a game, but they tend to come in the flow of the game, and not by taking shot after shot after shot. If I had to choose between Dragic and Collison, I'd take Dragic ten times out of ten. If you don't think Dragic gets his teammates involved, (when playing the PG position) then your either blind, or you haven't been watching him play.
 
I don't see the logic in giving up a top 10 pick for the right to match contracts on Brandon Knight in 2 months. I suppose if they crave the playoffs badly enough you could make a case that they needed to do something to stave off OKC, but it seems like a huge overpay to me. Especially when they already have a damn good PG in Eric Bledsoe under contract. They got Norris Cole in the Dragic trade. He's a solid backup. They could have drafted their future starting SF with that pick.

Wait, nevermind. Apparently Cole went to NO. I still have no idea what actually happened at the trade deadline.
 
I don't see the logic in giving up a top 10 pick for the right to match contracts on Brandon Knight in 2 months. I suppose if they crave the playoffs badly enough you could make a case that they needed to do something to stave off OKC, but it seems like a huge overpay to me. Especially when they already have a damn good PG in Eric Bledsoe under contract. They got Norris Cole in the Dragic trade. He's a solid backup. They could have drafted their future starting SF with that pick.

Wait, nevermind. Apparently Cole went to NO. I still have no idea what actually happened at the trade deadline.

Well I don't think they wanted to be in this situation to begin with, although they put themselves in it the minute they signed IT. Not IT's fault, but Dragic wants to play the point, but fortunately or unfortunately, pick your poison, he's quite capable of playing SG as well. So they moved him off the ball to spread the minutes around. Without IT being there, that wouldn't have happened. So Dragic decided he didn't want to be there anymore, and didn't trust anything the Suns were telling him. Who knows what promises were or were not made. So the Suns found themselves in the position of making the best deal they could or end up with nothing if they just let him walk.

Apparently they didn't feel comfortable with IT as their sole experienced backup PG, so they dealt him and then acquired Knight. All in all, not too bad a recovery from a bad situation. At least on paper. How that all plays out for the rest of the year, and into the future remains to be seen. I know I'm preaching to the choir, and without knowing what other deals were offered its really hard to make a fair assessment.
 
If I had to choose between Dragic and Collison, I'd take Dragic ten times out of ten. If you don't think Dragic gets his teammates involved, (when playing the PG position) then your either blind, or you haven't been watching him play.

No offense, but I'd argue the same in reverse my friend. Not sure what your are watching. History is on my side, whether I end up proven right or wrong, as Dragic has only had 2 good seasons during his 7 year career. I don't care what ratings might say, he's not as good a defender as Collison and he definitely takes more shots however they come. The Kings don't need a PG like him. Anybody willing to break the bank for the guy is seriously loco. At best, he's good - but far from great. Not worth the $$ he's going to get. I'll take Collison at the $$ the Kings are paying him all day and twice on Sunday.
 
No offense, but I'd argue the same in reverse my friend. Not sure what your are watching. History is on my side, whether I end up proven right or wrong, as Dragic has only had 2 good seasons during his 7 year career. I don't care what ratings might say, he's not as good a defender as Collison and he definitely takes more shots however they come. The Kings don't need a PG like him. Anybody willing to break the bank for the guy is seriously loco. At best, he's good - but far from great. Not worth the $$ he's going to get. I'll take Collison at the $$ the Kings are paying him all day and twice on Sunday.

How much Dragic is worth is a different discussion. I wouldn't pay him the max either. On that we agree. But I'll stick by my guns on who I would rather have between Collison and Dragic. So we'll just have to respectfully disagree.
 
Dragic has proven he can carry a team on his back (last season's Suns w/o Bledsoe). I like Collison but he is overachieving, for obvious reasons; and he is not a go-to guy like Dragic.

Put Collison on the Suns and they would be lottery bound.
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Dragic has proven he can carry a team on his back (last season's Suns w/o Bledsoe)...

Put Collison on the Suns and they would be lottery bound.
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He carried them to a 20-19 record without Bledsoe. That's a 39 game sample size of .500 ball you're basing this claim on.

also...

I like Collison but he is overachieving, for obvious reasons; and he is not a go-to guy like Dragic.

What are these obvious reasons? I'm pretty sure we signed Collison specifically because he's not a go-to guy considering our last PG was a go-to guy and interpreted that as a license to shoot whenever he felt like it.

Collison is 27 and has played in 421 NBA games. Dragic is 28 and has played in 478 NBA games. Here are their career averages:

12.4pts.....5.0asts......2.7rebs.....1.1stls.....0.2blks.....2.2TOs.....1.6PFs......465fg%......366 3pt%......850ft%....29.3mpg
12.0pts.....4.5asts......2.6rebs....1.0stls.....0.2blks.....2.1TOs.....2.0PFs......468fg%......363 3pt%.....746ft%.....25.5mpg

Can you tell me which of these players deserves 5 million per year and which deserves 12-15 million per year and/or possible MVP considerations?

EDIT:

Or maybe you think I'm cheating by looking at career numbers. Here's their splits as starters:

Dragic: .......242 games......34.5mpg.....17.1pts......6.3asts.......3.4rebs.....1.4stls........483fg%.......365 3pt%......761ft%
Collison: .....299 games......33.0mpg....14.0pts.....5.8asts.......3.0rebs.....1.2stls........467fg%........385 3pt%.....852ft%
............................................................(+3.1pts)..(+0.5asts)..(+0.4rebs)..(+0.2stls)..(+.015%).....(-.020%).....(-.091%)

This is the upgrade we're talking about. A better percentage on 2pt shots and a half an assist and a half a rebound. I'll stick with the guy we already have for 5 million dollars a year. No amount of "the stats don't tell you everything he does to make the team better" makes up for the huge drop in price to performance ratio involved.
 
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He carried them to a 20-19 record without Bledsoe. That's a 39 game sample size of .500 ball you're basing this claim on.

also...



What are these obvious reasons? I'm pretty sure we signed Collison specifically because he's not a go-to guy considering our last PG was a go-to guy and interpreted that as a license to shoot whenever he felt like it.

Collison is 27 and has played in 421 NBA games. Dragic is 28 and has played in 478 NBA games. Here are their career averages:

12.4pts.....5.0asts......2.7rebs.....1.1stls.....0.2blks.....2.2TOs.....1.6PFs......465fg%......366 3pt%......850ft%....29.3mpg
12.0pts.....4.5asts......2.6rebs....1.0stls.....0.2blks.....2.1TOs.....2.0PFs......468fg%......363 3pt%.....746ft%.....25.5mpg

Can you tell me which of these players deserves 5 million per year and which deserves 12-15 million per year and/or possible MVP considerations?

EDIT:

Or maybe you think I'm cheating by looking at career numbers. Here's their splits as starters:

Dragic: .......242 games......34.5mpg.....17.1pts......6.3asts.......3.4rebs.....1.4stls........483fg%.......365 3pt%......761ft%
Collison: .....299 games......33.0mpg....14.0pts.....5.8asts.......3.0rebs.....1.2stls........467fg%........385 3pt%.....852ft%
............................................................(+3.1pts)..(+0.5asts)..(+0.4rebs)..(+0.2stls)..(+.015%).....(-.020%).....(-.091%)

This is the upgrade we're talking about. A better percentage on 2pt shots and a half an assist and a half a rebound. I'll stick with the guy we already have for 5 million dollars a year. No amount of "the stats don't tell you everything he does to make the team better" makes up for the huge drop in price to performance ratio involved.

I find it strange that you are using the entire career of players who have both played over 400 games in this league as a barometer for how good they are TODAY and what they should earn TODAY. Usually what players get judged on or offered is determined by how good they are at that moment (not by their entire tenure in the league). It would be like looking at somebody who started off as an analyst in a company and has moved all the way up to a Vice President role. If that particular person interviews for another job, do you think the person interviewing and making the offer is going to say, "You were once an analyst in your career so that brings down your net worth. Therefore, you're not as good of an employee as you seem and we can't pay you as much money," or do you think the interviewer would like at the skills they have currently to judge his ability and decide how much he deserves to get paid? The same applies here.

Now I'm not arguing that we bring in Dragic. I actually think we have a good PG on a great deal. What Dragic is asking for is something I would not be willing to fork up, but you're evidence to support your claim has many holes at best.
 
I find it strange that you are using the entire career of players who have both played over 400 games in this league as a barometer for how good they are TODAY and what they should earn TODAY. Usually what players get judged on or offered is determined by how good they are at that moment (not by their entire tenure in the league). It would be like looking at somebody who started off as an analyst in a company and has moved all the way up to a Vice President role. If that particular person interviews for another job, do you think the person interviewing and making the offer is going to say, "You were once an analyst in your career so that brings down your net worth. Therefore, you're not as good of an employee as you seem and we can't pay you as much money," or do you think the interviewer would like at the skills they have currently to judge his ability and decide how much he deserves to get paid? The same applies here.

Now I'm not arguing that we bring in Dragic. I actually think we have a good PG on a great deal. What Dragic is asking for is something I would not be willing to fork up, but you're evidence to support your claim has many holes at best.

That's just it though ... how do you quantify how good a player is today? We're looking at two players who are having very similar seasons right now. They have very similar career numbers. They have very similar career numbers as well if you only look at games in which they were the starter. They have very similar per36 averages for their career as well. So what's the big difference here? I'm straining to understand why one of them appears on the surface to be a star PG and the other is considered to be only a good backup (even though he's started nearly 75% of his games in the NBA). Yes I have seen both of them play, and no it's not self-evident.

Could it be something as simple as this: Dragic looks good driving to the basket and that's generally how we like to see our star players playing basketball? Or is it the 20pts/game factor? Once you have one season of averaging 20pts per game do you go up a tier as a player? I feel like we've gone back in time to the great IT vs. Collison debate. Why is it perennially impossible for so many people to appreciate a steady PG who knows their role and sticks to it? If Collison is a better defender, a better 3pt shooter, and has the same assist/TO ratio over the past three seasons despite spending half that time as a bench player -- why am I supposed to fall over myself to trade him for Dragic?

Lost in the rush to anoint Dragic as the next great undiscovered talent last year is the complete lack of precedent for his massive bump in shooting percentage. He shot .443 from the floor and .319 from three his first season in Phoenix. The following season he shot .505 and .408, respectively. His fg% is still above 50% this season but his 3pt% dropped 50 points, which is much closer to his career average. Is this evidence of massive growth or is it one peak season which won't be duplicated again? That's why I look at career numbers as well as recent history.
 
That's just it though ... how do you quantify how good a player is today? We're looking at two players who are having very similar seasons right now. They have very similar career numbers. They have very similar career numbers as well if you only look at games in which they were the starter. They have very similar per36 averages for their career as well. So what's the big difference here? I'm straining to understand why one of them appears on the surface to be a star PG and the other is considered to be only a good backup (even though he's started nearly 75% of his games in the NBA). Yes I have seen both of them play, and no it's not self-evident.

Could it be something as simple as this: Dragic looks good driving to the basket and that's generally how we like to see our star players playing basketball? Or is it the 20pts/game factor? Once you have one season of averaging 20pts per game do you go up a tier as a player? I feel like we've gone back in time to the great IT vs. Collison debate. Why is it perennially impossible for so many people to appreciate a steady PG who knows their role and sticks to it? If Collison is a better defender, a better 3pt shooter, and has the same assist/TO ratio over the past three seasons despite spending half that time as a bench player -- why am I supposed to fall over myself to trade him for Dragic?

Lost in the rush to anoint Dragic as the next great undiscovered talent last year is the complete lack of precedent for his massive bump in shooting percentage. He shot .443 from the floor and .319 from three his first season in Phoenix. The following season he shot .505 and .408, respectively. His fg% is still above 50% this season but his 3pt% dropped 50 points, which is much closer to his career average. Is this evidence of massive growth or is it one peak season which won't be duplicated again? That's why I look at career numbers as well as recent history.
Dragic is the much more talented and better player. The argument here could be the same argument made for IT vs Kyrie Irving. We all know Irving is far better than IT, just like how Dragic is far better than Collison. The only thing we're left with is, does talent justify the price? I think everyone has their own opinion on that.

Why would you compare career numbers? All players develop differently than others. Comparing career stats is a flawed technique to base eachother's game.

Look at the talent and skill level each player brings to the plate. I respect your analysis on this, but I really hope you're arguing the fact that Collison at 6mpy is a much better value than Dragic at $15mpy. If you're trying to argue who is the better player, it's not even close. Not remotely. Why is IT a 6th man? Why isn't he starting with his numbers and career numbers? Same argument can be said for him. Why is Kyrie Irving considered a superstar while posting similar numbers to IT?


Dragic is better than Collison. Why do you suppose he only received a 3 year $16million in FA? Why do you suppose that Dragic is rumored to receive over 13mpy this coming up FA? Not to mention the rumors of multiple teams willing to offer him a max contract? Another question, why has Collison been a journey man his entire career if he's better than Dragic? PHX tried to fight for him to stay.. Clippers were in no hurry to sign Collison. It's very interesting.

Both players aren't similar at all. They bring different skillsets to the table, and another is far more talented.
 
Dragic is the much more talented and better player. The argument here could be the same argument made for IT vs Kyrie Irving. We all know Irving is far better than IT, just like how Dragic is far better than Collison. The only thing we're left with is, does talent justify the price? I think everyone has their own opinion on that.

Why would you compare career numbers? All players develop differently than others. Comparing career stats is a flawed technique to base eachother's game.

Look at the talent and skill level each player brings to the plate. I respect your analysis on this, but I really hope you're arguing the fact that Collison at 6mpy is a much better value than Dragic at $15mpy. If you're trying to argue who is the better player, it's not even close. Not remotely. Why is IT a 6th man? Why isn't he starting with his numbers and career numbers? Same argument can be said for him. Why is Kyrie Irving considered a superstar while posting similar numbers to IT?


Dragic is better than Collison. Why do you suppose he only received a 3 year $16million in FA? Why do you suppose that Dragic is rumored to receive over 13mpy this coming up FA? Not to mention the rumors of multiple teams willing to offer him a max contract? Another question, why has Collison been a journey man his entire career if he's better than Dragic? PHX tried to fight for him to stay.. Clippers were in no hurry to sign Collison. It's very interesting.

Both players aren't similar at all. They bring different skillsets to the table, and another is far more talented.

You keep telling me (over and over again) that Dragic is far better as if this knowledge is self-evident and requires no justification. It's true they do bring different skillsets to the table. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that Collison's skillset is criminally underrated. Not just Collison specifically, but what he represents -- a direct the offense, take open shots when they're there, play fundamental defense, look to set up teammates rather than using them as decoys for your scoring drives type of PG. When we signed him over the summer I heard about how he was a huge step down from Isaiah Thomas. How he's never been successful as a starter. How he's a poor defender and was kicked out of Dallas for failing to run the offense properly. How many of these accusations have turned out to be true? None of them. Does he routinely make plays that make you go "wow"? No. Is he likely to show up in an ESPN highlight reel? No. But he consistently makes contributions which help his team win.

Talent is great. You don't have to convince me. I love talent. You know who's talented? Derrick Williams. Hell of a talent. You could put together a highlight reel of his best moments that would put Darren Collison's to shame. At some point you do have to look at production though and ask what the value of talent is when it doesn't produce tangible results. I'm not arguing that Dragic wouldn't be an upgrade in many ways over Collison. What I'm arguing is that the two are a lot more comparable than you think. And because Collison has a sneaky way of producing his numbers without doing anything that jumps out at you, I can see why people might get the impression that Dragic is a huge upgrade without taking the time to actually compare their production.

Why is Irving considered a superstar and IT a sixth man? For one thing, Irving has a longer track record of performing at an All-Star level. IT had only one season which was statistically similar to Irving. If he can do that for 3 more years, we might have a pretty good argument for IT being underrated. Both of them are talented scorers first and foremost with below average PG credentials. Irving has legitimately been a great shooter more often than not (.399)(.391)(.358)(.408) while IT is really only in that category for the first time this season (.379)(.358)(.349)(.392). But that alone doesn't explain the difference in perception. Honestly? First overall pick, 4 inches, Duke, Uncle Drew, different team situations. All of these are bigger factors than stats when you're talking about perception. Irving was anointed the franchise player from day one. Isaiah has had to scrape and claw for every bit of recognition. It's not fair, that's just how national media works. It may be true that Isaiah is closer to superstar Kyrie Irving as a player than national perception is ever likely to admit and that's going to cost him millions of dollars. I don't feel sorry for him though. I'd love to have his job.

And for the record, Collison is in his 6th season and he's started more games (299) than Dragic (242), who is in his 7th season. He's also started a greater % of his games (71% for Collison vs. 50% for Dragic). He's played on 5 different teams and started at least 30 games for all of them. He's been traded twice while Dragic has now been traded three times. What in your mind qualifies Collison as a career journeyman and excuses Dragic from the same distinction? Stats can be awfully inconvenient sometimes when they disagree with rumors and superstitions.
 
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This is the upgrade we're talking about. A better percentage on 2pt shots and a half an assist and a half a rebound. I'll stick with the guy we already have for 5 million dollars a year. No amount of "the stats don't tell you everything he does to make the team better" makes up for the huge drop in price to performance ratio involved.

Using your logic, let me present to you two PG's stats below.

A) 15.4pts.....6.6asts......2.5rebs.....1.1stls.....0.1blks.....2.2TOs.....1.6PFs......401fg%......360 3pt%.. ..839%....28.63mpg
B) 16.9pts.....5.7asts......2.5rebs....1.1stls......0.1blks.....2.1TOs.....2.3PFs......394fg%......388 3pt%.....878%.....35.4mpg

Player A has more assists and higher FG% in less minutes while most other stats are basically a wash. Per 36, Player A would have more points, more assists, more rebs, more steals, and higher FG%. So Player A is obviously better right? Right?

Well then, it probably shocks you to learn that Player A just lost his starting job this season and his team has been unhappy with his play and has been trying to replace him for some time.

Player B is a possible future hall of famer. That year he posted those stats, his team won the championship.

You see, you can't just judge PG by their stats. Yes, the old saying holds true. I will reveal who those players are at the bottom of this post.

You want to know why Dragic is better? It's because he controls the flow of the offense like only an elite PG can do - he spends most of the game (especially in the first half) passing the ball and setting up teammates, he turns down opportunity to score, not even thinking about shooting, in order to get his teammates going. He keeps track of how how many points/fouls each player has and he makes sure his scorers has enough touches in the right places. If one of the scorer is not scoring enough, he knows that and calls out plays to get that guy going. It sounds simple but some PGs have a lot of issues doing just that - IT, Reke, etc. Some PGs can do that (Rubio, Collison, etc) but they have trouble doing the following:

When the team is in a funk, when the high scorers are out of sort and the other teammates can't get going, the elite PG has the ability to flip the switch, say, "Guys, I got this." and takes over the game. This usually is what sets the great ones from the rest of the pack. Watch guys like Chris Paul and Derrick Rose and it's a case study in how to play PG perfectly. They often spends the first quarter not even looking at the basket. It's not unusual to see them with only 6 pts or whatever after half. And then sometime in the late 2nd or 3rd quarter, they just explode and take over the game. Maybe for only a 2-4 minute spell but it's enough to change the momentum and get his teammates' adrenaline going. Next thing you know, the entire team is awaken and they are running away with the score. That's what an elite PG can do for a team. Now, Dragic is not at Rose/Paul's level, but he is close. When you look at the next tier down from those guys; you'll find Dragic there. He has that ability to flip the switch and he has the PG's mentality (the unselfishness) to set up guys - he is a well rounded PG and those are very hard to find.

Collison on the other hand, doesn't have that ability to take over a game. So he has to play the game differently - more of a mix and match - a shot here, a pass there, mixing things up to keep the defense honest and basically takes what the defense gives him. Even though their stats may be similar, the way they go about getting those stats are very different.

Now, I have no complaint about Collison. He's solid and he fits the system. But let's not get overboard and say he is as good as Dragic. That's like saying Brandon Jennings is as good as Chaucey Billups.

Btw, Player A = Brandon Jennings. Player B = Chauncy Billups.
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Using your logic, let me present to you two PG's stats below.

A) 15.4pts.....6.6asts......2.5rebs.....1.1stls.....0.1blks.....2.2TOs.....1.6PFs......401fg%......360 3pt%.. ..839%....28.63mpg
B) 16.9pts.....5.7asts......2.5rebs....1.1stls......0.1blks.....2.1TOs.....2.3PFs......394fg%......388 3pt%.....878%.....35.4mpg

Player A has more assists and higher FG% in less minutes while most other stats are basically a wash. Per 36, Player A would have more points, more assists, more rebs, more steals, and higher FG%. So Player A is obviously better right? Right?

Well then, it probably shocks you to learn that Player A just lost his starting job this season and his team has been unhappy with his play and has been trying to replace him for some time.

Player B is a possible future hall of famer. That year he posted those stats, his team won the championship.

You see, you can't just judge PG by their stats. Yes, the old saying holds true. I will reveal who those players are at the bottom of this post.

You want to know why Dragic is better? It's because he controls the flow of the offense like only an elite PG can do - he spends most of the game (especially in the first half) passing the ball and setting up teammates, he turns down opportunity to score, not even thinking about shooting, in order to get his teammates going. He keeps track of how how many points/fouls each player has and he makes sure his scorers has enough touches in the right places. If one of the scorer is not scoring enough, he knows that and calls out plays to get that guy going. It sounds simple but some PGs have a lot of issues doing just that - IT, Reke, etc. Some PGs can do that (Rubio, Collison, etc) but they have trouble doing the following:

When the team is in a funk, when the high scorers are out of sort and the other teammates can't get going, the elite PG has the ability to flip the switch, say, "Guys, I got this." and takes over the game. This usually is what sets the great ones from the rest of the pack. Watch guys like Chris Paul and Derrick Rose and it's a case study in how to play PG perfectly. They often spends the first quarter not even looking at the basket. It's not unusual to see them with only 6 pts or whatever after half. And then sometime in the late 2nd or 3rd quarter, they just explode and take over the game. Maybe for only a 2-4 minute spell but it's enough to change the momentum and get his teammates' adrenaline going. Next thing you know, the entire team is awaken and they are running away with the score. That's what an elite PG can do for a team. Now, Dragic is not at Rose/Paul's level, but he is close. When you look at the next tier down from those guys; you'll find Dragic there. He has that ability to flip the switch and he has the PG's mentality (the unselfishness) to set up guys - he is a well rounded PG and those are very hard to find.

Collison on the other hand, doesn't have that ability to take over a game. So he has to play the game differently - more of a mix and match - a shot here, a pass there, mixing things up to keep the defense honest and basically takes what the defense gives him. Even though their stats may be similar, the way they go about getting those stats are very different.

Now, I have no complaint about Collison. He's solid and he fits the system. But let's not get overboard and say he is as good as Dragic. That's like saying Brandon Jennings is as good as Chaucey Billups.

Btw, Player A = Brandon Jennings. Player B = Chauncy Billups.
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Brandon Jennings didn't lose his starting job, he tore his achilles and his team was 9-3 in January at the time. He was coming off a game where he scored 24 points and dished 21 assists. Detroit was disappointed with Jennings last season because he shot the ball too much at a low percentage, but after cutting Josh Smith they went on a tear earlier this year and the only reason they're sniffing the playoffs right now is because of Jennings' play in December and January.

You're really barking up the wrong tree if you expect me to accept your premise that Jennings is an empty stats guy and Billups is clearly better because he's a hall of fame PG with a ring. I've always liked Jennings and while he gets a lot of crap from stats guys because of his shooting percentages, he's one of the best passing PGs in the league. 10th in assists this year, 6th last year. Defensive bigs with minimal offensive skills like Bogut and Drummond have benefitted immensely from playing alongside Jennings. Billups was a good shooter and defender and a steady PG presence but his reputation has been puffed up because he won a championship as one piece of a great Pistons lineup. 4 out of 5 starters were All Stars. The numbers you posted are perfectly consistent with how I remember Mr Big Shot in that a great deal of his reputation was built around his 3pt shooting and team defense. As a passer he was never top tier.

Is Jennings as good as Chauncey Billups? In some ways he's better. In other ways he's clearly worse. Why does it always have to be that one player is "clearly better" than another? That's an overly simplistic way of looking at it. If I needed a skilled passing PG I would prefer Jennings over Billups. If I had a defensive team without a lot of scorers I would prefer Billups. Hall of Fame status is a career achievement award. Leaning on that as a trump card to excuse yourself from doing any actual work is lazy analysis. I expect as much from ESPN, the masters of over-generalization and lowest common denominator groupthink. Die hard NBA fans should know better.

If you're trying to rank players in some kind of hierarchy at all you don't get it. You can't just rank every starting PG in the league 1-30 and then say a team will definitely get better by swapping the #25 guy for the #19 guy. Do you see what I mean? What if the #25 guy is a threepoint marksman and the #19 guy lives at the free throw line. One of them might be a horrible fit on your team. It's the whole idea that Dragic is clearly an upgrade that I find ridiculous because it's not based in any kind of reality, it's based in unquantifiable pseudo-analysis like "he's a go-to guy" and "he controls the flow of the offense" and "he gets his teammates' adrenaline going". I'm not opposed to upgrading the PG position, I just don't want Dragic. Too expensive, too risky, makes our 3pt shooting worse, prevents us from upgrading positions where we're getting substantially less production (PF, backup SG, backup C).
 
Brandon Jennings didn't lose his starting job, he tore his achilles and his team was 9-3 in January at the time. He was coming off a game where he scored 24 points and dished 21 assists. Detroit was disappointed with Jennings last season because he shot the ball too much at a low percentage, but after cutting Josh Smith they went on a tear earlier this year and the only reason they're sniffing the playoffs right now is because of Jennings' play in December and January.

You're really barking up the wrong tree if you expect me to accept your premise that Jennings is an empty stats guy and Billups is clearly better because he's a hall of fame PG with a ring. I've always liked Jennings and while he gets a lot of poopoo from stats guys because of his shooting percentages, he's one of the best passing PGs in the league. 10th in assists this year, 6th last year. Defensive bigs with minimal offensive skills like Bogut and Drummond have benefitted immensely from playing alongside Jennings. Billups was a good shooter and defender and a steady PG presence but his reputation has been puffed up because he won a championship as one piece of a great Pistons lineup. 4 out of 5 starters were All Stars. The numbers you posted are perfectly consistent with how I remember Mr Big Shot in that a great deal of his reputation was built around his 3pt shooting and team defense. As a passer he was never top tier.

Is Jennings as good as Chauncey Billups? In some ways he's better. In other ways he's clearly worse. Why does it always have to be that one player is "clearly better" than another? That's an overly simplistic way of looking at it. If I needed a skilled passing PG I would prefer Jennings over Billups. If I had a defensive team without a lot of scorers I would prefer Billups. Hall of Fame status is a career achievement award. Leaning on that as a trump card to excuse yourself from doing any actual work is lazy analysis. I expect as much from ESPN, the masters of over-generalization and lowest common denominator groupthink. Die hard NBA fans should know better.

If you're trying to rank players in some kind of hierarchy at all you don't get it. You can't just rank every starting PG in the league 1-30 and then say a team will definitely get better by swapping the #25 guy for the #19 guy. Do you see what I mean? What if the #25 guy is a threepoint marksman and the #19 guy lives at the free throw line. One of them might be a horrible fit on your team. It's the whole idea that Dragic is clearly an upgrade that I find ridiculous because it's not based in any kind of reality, it's based in unquantifiable pseudo-analysis like "he's a go-to guy" and "he controls the flow of the offense" and "he gets his teammates' adrenaline going". I'm not opposed to upgrading the PG position, I just don't want Dragic. Too expensive, too risky, makes our 3pt shooting worse, prevents us from upgrading positions where we're getting substantially less production (PF, backup SG, backup C).

I agree that different players bring different skillset to the table. And I am not at all getting down on Jennings, but Billups is clearly a better player than Jennings, by miles; and Billups' potential hall of fame credentials backup his status as a better player than Jennings, even if you choose to dismiss it.


If I needed a skilled passing PG I would prefer Jennings over Billups. If I had a defensive team without a lot of scorers I would prefer Billups.

Disagree completely. Billups would beat Jennings in any settings. Even if you want a PG who is more of a passer, Billups would still be preferred because he is just better. He is at least as good a passer as Jennings and maybe even more so. The thing is, it doesn't show in the stats and that's the problem with your stats-heavy analysis. You put these PGs in boxes based solely on their stats and sometimes the stats don't reflect their skill. If you tell Billups to just pass the ball more, plays like Jennings, he can do it and he can do it better. Not that Jennings isn't solid, but Billups is just so much better. It's the adage, you have to watch them play to get the full picture.
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I agree that different players bring different skillset to the table. And I am not at all getting down on Jennings, but Billups is clearly a better player than Jennings, by miles; and Billups' potential hall of fame credentials backup his status as a better player than Jennings, even if you choose to dismiss it.

Here we go again...

Disagree completely. Billups would beat Jennings in any settings. Even if you want a PG who is more of a passer, Billups would still be preferred because he is just better. He is at least as good a passer as Jennings and maybe even more so. The thing is, it doesn't show in the stats and that's the problem with your stats-heavy analysis. You put these PGs in boxes based solely on their stats and sometimes the stats don't reflect their skill. If you tell Billups to just pass the ball more, plays like Jennings, he can do it and he can do it better. Not that Jennings isn't solid, but Billups is just so much better. It's the adage, you have to watch them play to get the full picture.

Have you watched them play? If you're telling me Billups is a better passer than Jennings and didn't average more assists because that's not what his team wanted him to do, I'm pretty sure you haven't actually watched both of these guys play very much. Or at least you didn't understand what you were watching. Nevermind that you're comparing a 17 year veteran with a 25 year old who's just starting to arrive at his prime. You're telling me Billups has more skill at everything than Jennings and that just doesn't add up. Jennings is quicker with the ball, has a tighter handle, and I don't recall ever seeing Billups demonstrate the vision and ball control to pull off passes like this (link) or this (link) or this (link)

I'm a Kings fan, but I watch everybody because I love basketball. Of course you have to watch how players play to get the full picture. I use stats only to point out clearly erroneous hyperbole which isn't supported by facts. Like, for instance, Goran Dragic being significantly better than Darren Collison. This is a subjective opinion being paraded around as fact when there's no actual evidence to support it. If he's that much better than Collison, surely there must be some statistical marking which denotes that. I'm not asking for a lot, just something. Jordan wasn't the greatest NBA player of his generation because he stuck his tongue out and played with swagger and jumped higher than everyone. The guy flat out dominated everyone statistically too. His career averages are 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He had 4 seasons where his PER was higher than 30. He won 6 championships and was the Finals MVP in all 6 of those series. You didn't need the stats to tell you he was dominating everyone, but if you do look at the stats they back up the eye test and then some. As is the case with every superstar.

If I tell you that I think Collison is a more well-rounded PG than Dragic and while he's not explosive as a scorer or prolific as a passer or dominant as a defender, his all-around game adds up to a surprisingly effective starting PG and one of the best values of the league at his current price point you'll just tell me I'm wrong. Because Dragic is "clearly better". Because Dragic gets paid more or because sports media elected Dragic to an All NBA team. So I don't just give you a subjective opinion and expect you to respect it. I have to post stats which back up my claims or you'll dismiss my opinion as a kooky outlier. And yet when I post stats I get people like you telling me they're useless and I should just watch the games. Do you see the problem here? How am I supposed to refute the claim that Dragic is "clearly better" without providing some kind of stat?

I don't actually care if you agree with my opinion. I'm only trying to fight against the reductionist tendency to overgeneralize and rank players instead of actually engaging with a player's skillset and see each of them as a combination of strengths and weaknesses. Personnel decisions are not as easy as deciding which is the best player today and that's the end of it. You have to project based on age and track record and peak performance potential and injury history and contract demands and how their skills might compliment other players and whether they will help you on defense or not and how well they will adapt to the system the head coach wants to run. There are a hundred factors to consider and I love discussing this stuff. To reduce it down to "Player A is clearly better than Player B" and refuse to consider other points of view I find personally insulting.
 
Here we go again...



Have you watched them play? If you're telling me Billups is a better passer than Jennings and didn't average more assists because that's not what his team wanted him to do, I'm pretty sure you haven't actually watched both of these guys play very much. Or at least you didn't understand what you were watching. Nevermind that you're comparing a 17 year veteran with a 25 year old who's just starting to arrive at his prime. You're telling me Billups has more skill at everything than Jennings and that just doesn't add up. Jennings is quicker with the ball, has a tighter handle, and I don't recall ever seeing Billups demonstrate the vision and ball control to pull off passes like this (link) or this (link) or this (link)

I'm a Kings fan, but I watch everybody because I love basketball. Of course you have to watch how players play to get the full picture. I use stats only to point out clearly erroneous hyperbole which isn't supported by facts. Like, for instance, Goran Dragic being significantly better than Darren Collison. This is a subjective opinion being paraded around as fact when there's no actual evidence to support it. If he's that much better than Collison, surely there must be some statistical marking which denotes that. I'm not asking for a lot, just something. Jordan wasn't the greatest NBA player of his generation because he stuck his tongue out and played with swagger and jumped higher than everyone. The guy flat out dominated everyone statistically too. His career averages are 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He had 4 seasons where his PER was higher than 30. He won 6 championships and was the Finals MVP in all 6 of those series. You didn't need the stats to tell you he was dominating everyone, but if you do look at the stats they back up the eye test and then some. As is the case with every superstar.

If I tell you that I think Collison is a more well-rounded PG than Dragic and while he's not explosive as a scorer or prolific as a passer or dominant as a defender, his all-around game adds up to a surprisingly effective starting PG and one of the best values of the league at his current price point you'll just tell me I'm wrong. Because Dragic is "clearly better". Because Dragic gets paid more or because sports media elected Dragic to an All NBA team. So I don't just give you a subjective opinion and expect you to respect it. I have to post stats which back up my claims or you'll dismiss my opinion as a kooky outlier. And yet when I post stats I get people like you telling me they're useless and I should just watch the games. Do you see the problem here? How am I supposed to refute the claim that Dragic is "clearly better" without providing some kind of stat?

I don't actually care if you agree with my opinion. I'm only trying to fight against the reductionist tendency to overgeneralize and rank players instead of actually engaging with a player's skillset and see each of them as a combination of strengths and weaknesses. Personnel decisions are not as easy as deciding which is the best player today and that's the end of it. You have to project based on age and track record and peak performance potential and injury history and contract demands and how their skills might compliment other players and whether they will help you on defense or not and how well they will adapt to the system the head coach wants to run. There are a hundred factors to consider and I love discussing this stuff. To reduce it down to "Player A is clearly better than Player B" and refuse to consider other points of view I find personally insulting.
I don't understand. When stats are provided to show you that certain players are better than other players, you refute it because you claim player A is a better passer with your eyeball test. Now you're trying to say Dragic isn't a better PG than Collison because stats aren't being provided.
Compare both players at their prime and in their best season, Dragic is better... yet that alone isn't enough.


I've tried to compare IT with Irving and then you bring up the point that Irving was drafted as a franchise player... that has completely nothing to do with player performance. You nitpick your stats and bits of information to support your argument.

Your reasoning is just as flawed as mines right now. Here I will list the +'s and -'s of each player

Darren Collison
Positives
-Pesky defense
-High bball IQ
-Scoring ability
-Unselfishness
-Scoring
-Attacking ability
-3pt/perimeter shooting
-Vocal PG
-Passing ability
-Quickness
-Kickout offense

Negatives-6'0 undersized
-Lack of strength
-Defensive struggles
-Lack of playmaking ability
-Passiveness
-Role player height




Goran Dragic
Positives
-Great size 6'4
-Crafty offensive player
-Good passer
-Unselfish player
-Good transition offense
-Great driver/finisher
-Good 3pt shooting
-Great scorer/very efficient
-Good defense because of size and quickness
-High bball iq/smart player
-Versatility
-Quickness
-PnR offense

Negatives
-Poor perimeter shooter
-Mediocre FT% shooter
-Not a great defensive player
-May get out of control sometimes when attacking the rim


Dragic is the better player. I said Collison is a role player because when he's asked to take over the #2 for our team, he's terrible. He shys away from the opportunity and forces Gay to be the #1 and #2 option. He's struggled when asked to do more than he's usually done. Dragic has a higher ceiling and better upside, while Collison is towards his peak because of his lower ceiling and potential.


You wanted strengths and weaknesses and I've provided them.. compare their best seasons, and Dragic's numbers are better all around. The only argument that can e made is if Collison is a better option on a cheaper contract.
 
Actually, the stats bebop posted don't show that Chauncey Billups is a better player than Brandon Jennings. He posted those stats specifically because they make Jennings look good and he wanted me to agree that Billups is light years better than Jennings and therefore stats can be misleading. I could have pulled out more stats to show that Jennings is a lot closer to Billups than you would think, but he didn't want stats so I left that part out. Like, for instance, that Jennings is only 25 and already has better career highs in points (55 vs 39) and assists (21 vs 19) than Billups posted in his 17 year career. So Jennings' peak performance is already higher and he's just starting to reach his prime years (provided the achilles injury doesn't have a big long-term impact). He's also posted 54 double digit assist games so far and Billups had only 10 double digit assist games at age 25. We can't fairly compare their careers though until Jennings retires.

As regards Dragic, he's had only 1 season where he was substantially better than Collison. Everything else is pretty equal. I don't think that's enough of a track record to stake a 10 million dollar difference in salary on. I also pointed out that Dragic's age 27 season is such an outlier compared to the seasons immediately before and after it (especially the 3pt shooting %), that I question to what extent we should lean on that one season to predict future performance.

My response to the question about Irving and IT was explaining why there's a perception that Irving is a superstar and IT is not. That's what he asked me, "why is Irving considered a superstar while posting similar numbers to IT". I thought those were fair answers when dealing with that question -- perception is about a lot of non-basketball related factors. I also tried to point out that the numbers are only close in the one season IT was a full-time starter. IT hasn't had as many opportunities to start, so his overall numbers are lower even if his per36 numbers are closer. A lot of people don't put much stock in per36 numbers. I actually like per36 numbers if there's a big enough sample size, and thats why I said that IT is a lot closer in talent to Irving than he's ever going to get credit for. The "undersized" stigma is so strong in the NBA that he's always going to be seen as a complimentary player rather than a superstar, fair or not.

I don't think any of these conclusions are inconsistent. I think it's fair to say my stance on statistics is too complex to be neatly summarized. I think they are useful tools when they reinforce my perceptions. I also find them useful when they strongly contradict my perceptions because it forces me to explain the discrepancy, or admit that I'm mistaken. The gray area in the middle where you can fudge the numbers to fit what you want to believe is the dangerous area. And that's where we're living right now. It's easy to say Dragic is a better player than Collison. The eye test seems to agree, the accolades certainly agree. But there's no statistical data to justify it and we're dealing with a pretty significant sample size here of over 400 games.

Looking at your strengths and weaknesses, there are a number of redundancies and inconsistencies. You have "scoring" and "scoring ability" listed as two separate strengths for Collison and you have "good 3pt shooting" as a strength for Dragic and "poor perimeter shooting" as a weakness. Also, Collison measured 6' 0.25" barefoot at the combine which should be 6'1" in official height since you typically add 1 inch for shoes. Dragic's listed height is 6'3", which is still tall enough to be counted a strength, but I think the height difference here is closer to 2 inches than 4 inches.

Here's how I would rank their relative merits:

Collison:
+Active defender, good lateral quickness and hands
+Good 3pt shooter, especially in spot-up situations
+Experience running a team, likes to set up teammates
+Very quick with the ball in his hands

-Not a go-to scorer, likes to take shots within flow of offense
-Lacks elite size or athleticism
-Can be outmuscled by bigger pointguards

Dragic:
+Gets to the basket and finishes through contact
+Good at finding teammates out of pick and roll
+Has size, quickness, and ball skills to create his own shot
+Surprisingly quick first step, good in the open-court

-Inconsistent 3pt shooter
-Can get lost in defensive coverage
-Plays too out of control at times

I do think Dragic is probably the better player right now (though it's close). He has the higher peak potential and creates more problems for the defense. I'm concerned about his 3pt shooting though, as the bulk of his career has been spotty. I'm also concerned about his attitude -- if he wants to be a go-to guy, will he be happy deferring to Cousins and Gay? But it's his age and contract demands that make it a solid "no" for me. All things considered, I'm happy we have Collison for two more years and I'm willing to accept his limitations as part of the trade-off for steady and predictable production. Unlike Dragic, he's been the same player his entire career. When you add that he's also younger and substantially cheaper, that's a no-brainer for me. I wouldn't mind sliding Collison to backup if an elite PG becomes available of course, but it's hardly a priority.
 
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Have you watched them play? If you're telling me Billups is a better passer than Jennings and didn't average more assists because that's not what his team wanted him to do, I'm pretty sure you haven't actually watched both of these guys play very much. Or at least you didn't understand what you were watching. Nevermind that you're comparing a 17 year veteran with a 25 year old who's just starting to arrive at his prime. You're telling me Billups has more skill at everything than Jennings and that just doesn't add up. Jennings is quicker with the ball, has a tighter handle, and I don't recall ever seeing Billups demonstrate the vision and ball control to pull off passes like this (link) or this (link) or this (link)

If you're talking about making fancy highlight passes, the WOW factor. Then Jennings likely beats Billups. But you are also unlikely to find John Stockton making similar passes either, so what's the point? Those passes pretty much highlights part of the problem with Jennings - he makes high-risk decisions. Billups is more steady, he is unlikely to take that kind of risk but he would have found a way to get the ball to a teammate regardless.

I never said Billups beats Jennings in everything, but I did say that Billups is better at the key things that define a PG, including passing. He might not be as fast or as showy as Jennings, but he gets it done better nonetheless.

I don't actually care if you agree with my opinion. I'm only trying to fight against the reductionist tendency to overgeneralize and rank players instead of actually engaging with a player's skillset and see each of them as a combination of strengths and weaknesses.

That's fine. But your tendency to cite nothing but stats seems to contradict what you say you're trying to achieve.


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If you're talking about making fancy highlight passes, the WOW factor. Then Jennings likely beats Billups. But you are also unlikely to find John Stockton making similar passes either, so what's the point? Those passes pretty much highlights part of the problem with Jennings - he makes high-risk decisions. Billups is more steady, he is unlikely to take that kind of risk but he would have found a way to get the ball to a teammate regardless.

I never said Billups beats Jennings in everything, but I did say that Billups is better at the key things that define a PG, including passing. He might not be as fast or as showy as Jennings, but he gets it done better nonetheless.

I suppose it just depends what we're talking about. I consider passing ability to be a different skill than game management. Having the vision to see passing angles over, around, and through the defense and the ball control to actually get the ball there is in itself a pretty rare skill. John Stockton absolutely did have that skill. I actually see more of John Stockton's game in Brandon Jennings than I did in Chauncey Billups. That's not to say Billups wasn't an excellent game manager, I just don't think he stood out with his passing skill or his quickness with the ball in the way the other two guys do/did. I also think game management is partially a byproduct of experience and Chauncey made the All-Star game in five straight seasons from age 29 to age 33, which would be considered his career peak. Jennings is 25. Who's to say he won't mature into playing more of a steady, veteran type of game himself by that age? It's not a fair comparison to take a guy who's just starting to reach his prime and hold him up to the shadow of an entire 17 year career.

That's fine. But your tendency to cite nothing but stats seems to contradict what you say you're trying to achieve.

I agree. I'm just not sure how to cite anything qualitative and subjective. I talk about my perceptions and people ignore them. I post stats and people get angry. Even relying on video clips from Youtube feels a little tacky and forced to me because you can't really see how a player engages with the flow of a game in highlight clips taken out of context. I tend to rely on stats mostly in a destructive manner -- to attack perceptions which I think are flawed. If we can agree that the perception is flawed, that's when we can have an actual conversation about who players are instead of getting stuck at "this guy is better, end of conversation" or my personal favorite "this guy is garbage, next". Of course we would actually have to agree that the perception is flawed first and that doesn't seem to be going very well...
 
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