Getting Rudy Going Is Key To Our Success

[rainmaker]

There's been a lot of conversation lately about Isaiah and does his scoring help or not help us. If Isaiah steps up and is our top or 2nd leading scorer, does it help or hurt our cause? I decided to crunch some numbers and what I found was what's far more important is what Rudy scores in regards to our win/loss column. This can relay off into should Rudy/Boogie be the clear top two options or whether we're better having three more interchangeable top options and it doesn't matter much who scores those points.

Here's what I found and it's a bit surprising.

In games where Rudy scores 20+
8-3

In games where Rudy scores under 20
0-8

In games where Isaiah scores 20+
5-8

In games where Isaiah scores under 20
3-3

In games where Boogie/Rudy are our top two scorers
5-3(one game Rudy was tied for 2nd on the team)

In games where Boogie/Rudy are not our top two scorers
3-8



In looking at this, it's clear that all points are not equal and who plays the 2nd option most certainly does effect our success.

We're a far better team when:

a) Rudy gets going, is in a rhythm and scores 20 or more

b) Boogie and Rudy are the top two scorers on the team


There's more which goes into this obviously and it isn't black and white, but there is some real truth to these numbers and after considering these numbers, one of our focus' should clearly be getting Rudy more touches and doing everything we can to get him into a rhythm, not being a focal point but the focal point next to Boogie. We're a better team when that happens and it's tough for that to happen if someone else is shooting the rock instead. We've got to get Rudy going more frequently as to maximize our current roster's ability it has to be the Boogie/Rudy show. Anyone else steps into that #2 role and we're not nearly as competitive. Our mission should be to get Rudy to that 20 point mark, featured next to Boogie and do it at all costs. Why? Because we have yet to win a game when he doesn't cross the 20pt barrier.

 

[Entity]

I felt like this was the case. Some posters tried to say it last night including myself but couldn't find the words. Here it is mapped out for everyone. I can't wait to see the counter argument

 

[Glenn]

I thought the title of the thread to be true but can't yell loud enough. Thanks for going to the bother.

 

[SacTownKid]

I felt like this was the case. Some posters tried to say it last night including myself but couldn't find the words. Here it is mapped out for everyone. I can't wait to see the counter argument

Yeah, this is one of the situations where it certainly seems this way when you watch this team on the floor.

 

[Spike]

Having a SF that can create for others and score on his own is a defensive nightmare for opposing coaches. Where do you double from?

If you bring help from the post, you're weak underneath, which is not an option with Cousins there.
Wing help is the only option, but Gay has real size, which makes things difficult if the 2 is late. Either way, he still causes defensive issues. If our shooting guards could actually shoot, this would be really tough for opposing teams.

 

[D-Wade]

This forum is a joke, have only been part of it for less than a week and I'm already hating it. There's a lot more to winning than who score more points!!! As of right now the Kings are a direct reflection of the people on here. I like the Kings but no one on their team is my favorite player but since i live in Sacramento I support them. No one on here has the solution or is in the position to say who belongs and who doesn't... There's only one team, either you support the team and acknowledge the area they need to improve on while on here or just do us all a favor and break your keyboard.!!


Now.. There's is no doubt we are a better team when all of our 3 main guys are playing good but to say we are better team when Gay scores 20 points or more couldn't be any further from the truth(Just ask Kobe). Maybe there is other stats that lead to the win such as good offensive rebounding, forced turn overs where Gay was on the receiving end of someone else hustling. We don't have a Lebron, Durant, Kobe, or D-wade on this team but we do have five guys that have shown us they can compete and beat the leagues best, now everything rest on the coach to get them to be consistent. Every single one of our flaws can be suppressed by good coaching, so next year will be a test for Malone than anything else. If there is any player that refuse to buy into the team they can close the door on the way out.

 

[Gliesian]

This forum is a joke, have only been part of it for less than a week and I'm already hating it. There's a lot more to winning than who score more points!!! As of right now the Kings are a direct reflection of the people on here. I like the Kings but no one on their team is my favorite player but since i live in Sacramento I support them. No one on here has the solution or is in the position to say who belongs and who doesn't... There's only one team, either you support the team and acknowledge the area they need to improve on while on here or just do us all a favor and break your keyboard.!!


Now.. There's is no doubt we are a better team when all of our 3 main guys are playing good but to say we are better team when Gay scores 20 points or more couldn't be any further from the truth(Just ask Kobe). Maybe there is other stats that lead to the win such as good offensive rebounding, forced turn overs where Gay was on the receiving end of someone else hustling. We don't have a Lebron, Durant, Kobe, or D-wade on this team but we do have five guys that have shown us they can compete and beat the leagues best, now everything rest on the coach to get them to be consistent. Every single one of our flaws can be suppressed by good coaching, so next year will be a test for Malone than anything else. If there is any player that refuse to buy into the team they can close the door on the way out.

It's pretty clear that you don't understand what a hypothesis is and what it means to analyze data that supports it. Through some thoughtful data mining, Rainmaker is suggesting that Rudy's scoring is more important than IT's scoring, statistically speaking. It is one part of a bigger picture he has chosen to address on this forum.

 

[Entity]

I see nothing in this thread that contradicts your first rant/paragraph. So where did the fire and hatred come from.

The OP was just am observation not an absolute. Any sane person can see that. You said that us being a better team when Rudy scores 20+ could not be further from the truth? I'm not seeing that evidence just bunch of hooey. You said Maybe its something else like offensive rebounding??? Really offensive rebounding? But the OP is absurd?

 

[Warhawk]

This forum is a joke, have only been part of it for less than a week and I'm already hating it. There's a lot more to winning than who score more points!!! As of right now the Kings are a direct reflection of the people on here. I like the Kings but no one on their team is my favorite player but since i live in Sacramento I support them. No one on here has the solution or is in the position to say who belongs and who doesn't... There's only one team, either you support the team and acknowledge the area they need to improve on while on here or just do us all a favor and break your keyboard.!!


Now.. There's is no doubt we are a better team when all of our 3 main guys are playing good but to say we are better team when Gay scores 20 points or more couldn't be any further from the truth(Just ask Kobe). Maybe there is other stats that lead to the win such as good offensive rebounding, forced turn overs where Gay was on the receiving end of someone else hustling. We don't have a Lebron, Durant, Kobe, or D-wade on this team but we do have five guys that have shown us they can compete and beat the leagues best, now everything rest on the coach to get them to be consistent. Every single one of our flaws can be suppressed by good coaching, so next year will be a test for Malone than anything else. If there is any player that refuse to buy into the team they can close the door on the way out.

Um, just wondering if you were going to contribute to the conversation or just rant. And if you "hate it" here, why come back?

I see whining with no facts stated. I see no effort to do research on your own regarding your hypotheses. The OP has some facts and statistics that appear to prove (or at least reinforce) his point. You don't like them?

a) too bad, as long as the statistics are true
b) do your own research that either
i) disproves the OP, or
ii) proves your own point.

If you want to contribute here, then do so. This post of yours, however, does nothing to further conversation or generate thought. Think about it.

 

[Gary]

I look at these stats like I look at the stats like "if the Kings score 110 then we are # - #". The Cincinnati Bengals were undefeated when BJE had 100+ yards but it didn't mean we keep running him until he gets 100 yards.

The keys to our offense is IT/Cuz/Rudy. When Rudy/Cuz falter usually IT has the most points, but because Rudy/Cuz falter we will most likely lose and then make IT's points look like his hogging of the ball is what caused us to lose.

Basically trying to say the stats are too generalized.

 

[Entity]

Maybe, maybe not but when Isaiah is taking 20 shots and cousins is getting his attempts guess who gets frozen out? Rudy had 7 shots last and 4 ast. Our pg had 18 shots not counting the usage for the 13 free throws and 6 ast. Rudy is second best player on this team.

 

[jcwkings]

Rudy was getting doubled on the catch vs the Thunder, thus he didn't get his shots(plus he was ejected). When he isn't getting doubled the trio seem to get a even distribution of shots on most nights. Also Gay has been more efficient with us because we haven't used him as an isolation guy, we can use him as that(especially if he has a mismatch), but generally Gays pts have been coming in a more quick hit variety, whether its finishing on the break, catch and shoots off IT's dribble penetration, or two dribble pull ups off of passes from Cuz or IT. I like using Gay as a kind of quick hit finisher on the wing, rather than the isolate and let him create type. The more we see that, the more we will see the Gay from Toronto. We probably have a good record when at least 2 of the 3 have an efficient scoring night. Yesterday IT scored 38 on 18 shots, but Cousins had 16 on 17 shots, and Gay was a total non factor.

 

[LPKingsFan]

but generally Gays pts have been coming in a more quick hit variety, whether its finishing on the break, catch and shoots off IT's dribble penetration, or two dribble pull ups off of passes from Cuz or IT.

This is not inconsistent with a theory that when Gay scores 20+, the Kings seem to have a better chance of winning. In fact, it fits perfectly: Gay scores 20+ when he's scoring in the variety of ways you mention, and those types of plays take place only if the offense is functioning well. If the offense is functioning well, then the team is more likely to win. Science!

 

[KingMilz]

Getting the whole team outside to buy into team concept > getting Rudy Gay going

Players just need to stop forcing garbage and move the ball and actually make the other team defence move rather than being able to zero in on Gay/Cousins/IT cause they want to force shots. I just want to see more passing in general. If you have 2-3 people on your that means someone is open kick it out at best a wide open shot/lay up at worst the defence is forced to work.

 

[Glenn]

It's too bad that stats like this simply continue an old argument. If the Kings want to win and if the fans want the Kings to win, I would think such statistics should be given some consideration. Are they statistically significant and if so, what do they mean? They certainly don't mean that one player's points are worth more than another player's points but they may indicate something else. I don't know what that something else is but I wish the brilliant basketball minds would try to figure out what they mean. It seems there is a clue here that could help the Kings.

I see some people are trying to do what I suggest and that is a breath of fresh air.

 

[Bricklayer]

Maybe, maybe not but when Isaiah is taking 20 shots and cousins is getting his attempts guess who gets frozen out? Rudy had 7 shots last and 4 ast. Our pg had 18 shots not counting the usage for the 13 free throws and 6 ast. Rudy is second best player on this team.

Last night that wasn't it though. They were doubling Rudy on the catch. Even of the 7 shots 4 were basically forces. OKC made the decision Rudy wasn't going to shoot, not anybody onour team.

 

[jcwkings]

It's too bad that stats like this simply continue an old argument. If the Kings want to win and if the fans want the Kings to win, I would think such statistics should be given some consideration. Are they statistically significant and if so, what do they mean? They certainly don't mean that one player's points are worth more than another player's points but they may indicate something else. I don't know what that something else is but I wish the brilliant basketball minds would try to figure out what they mean. It seems there is a clue here that could help the Kings.

I see some people are trying to do what I suggest and that is a breath of fresh air.

AndreMiller07 is right, this team looks good and plays good when there is ball movement, Cuz/Gay/IT are all huge scoring threats in their own way, but if we are just isolating a guy and that guy is not looking to pass and just throwing up garbage in traffic, we make it easy on the opposition. We look good when say Cousins has a mismatch down low, he gets position and draws attention, IT spotted up ready to shoot, Gay making a cut to the rim. If Cousins can read the floor he will find an open shot somewhere, whether its an IT shot, Gay with a high % look, JT in the paint, or Thornton spot up, or if he is being played 1 on 1, Cousins can get his shot. Basketball is about establishing your threats and working off of that, if IT hits two 3's in a row, the defense will play him tighter, he can penetrate and dish from that. If Cuz is working his man down low or hitting his 15 footer he will draw attention and there will be a good shot out there on the floor. The problem in our losses is that we get flustered as a team and everyone starts trying to play hero, whether its Cousins putting up shots around 3 defenders, IT recklessly taking long jumpers, or Gay trying to get his shot off with a double team. We play into what the defense wants us to do in our losses.

 

[jcwkings]

This is not inconsistent with a theory that when Gay scores 20+, the Kings seem to have a better chance of winning. In fact, it fits perfectly: Gay scores 20+ when he's scoring in the variety of ways you mention, and those types of plays take place only if the offense is functioning well. If the offense is functioning well, then the team is more likely to win. Science!

That variety comes with him playing more as a #3 option, than #2. If we use him as a #2 and get a traditional facilitating PG, that means Gay will be used in isolation more(how he was used in Toronto) the catch and shoot and 2 dribble pull up type shots will be much less frequent. The problem with getting a 3D PG is that Cousins and Gay will be used as your facilitators, neither has proven to be great passers out of double teams.

For instance if your lineup is
Cousins
JT
Gay
McLemore
Prime Derick Fisher

Gay no longer is the efficient quick hit finisher that we have seen here, but the guy you want creating from the perimeter(how he was used in Toronto).

 

[ppine]

Its not how its how many.

 

[Kingster]

So according to your analysis, the Kings are guaranteed playing .500 ball if IT just shoot less enough to be under 20 points (Let's max IT at 5 shots a game; even he can't get to 20 with 5 shots; but wait, if he makes 5 consecutive three point shots, and then adds 5 free throws, that's 20 points; that's bad). And if the opposing team merely doubles or triples Gay every single time they are guaranteed 100% winning percentage. Presumably, Gay doesn't score in that circumstance, although if he forced the ball 40 times it's possible he gets his 20 points, so maybe that's the strategy: have Gay shoot 40 times a game, regardless.

 

[Dime Dropper]

So according to your analysis, the Kings are guaranteed playing .500 ball if IT just shoot less enough to be under 20 points (Let's max IT at 5 shots a game; even he can't get to 20 with 5 shots; but wait, if he makes 5 consecutive three point shots, and then adds 5 free throws, that's 20 points; that's bad). And if the opposing team merely doubles or triples Gay every single time they are guaranteed 100% winning percentage. Presumably, Gay doesn't score in that circumstance, although if he forced the ball 40 times it's possible he gets his 20 points, so maybe that's the strategy: have Gay shoot 40 times a game, regardless.

Nice strawman. I knew you'd find a way to make literally EVERYTHING in this thread about IT.

 

[Glenn]

Kingster, please. You are brighter than this. I doubt if anyone really knows what the stats mean. That's the point of the stats in my mind. I don't think they can be ignored. They are food for thought. There are many interpretations of what this means and you resort to a comment that is silly.

I have always thought that IT brings the offense to a halt to a certain extent. When he is looking for his shot, everyone stands around. Now who's fault that is can be debated. When Gay has the ball, he doesn't stop the offense. If I am right and I have no real confidence that I am right, it might mean the ball needs to be in Gay's hands more. 20 pts is 20 pts no matter who scores them. The question is what happens off the ball. Certainly scoring from others is the difference maker and not whether Gay gets 20 or IT gets 20.

 

[whozit]

Nice strawman. I knew you'd find a way to make literally EVERYTHING in this thread about IT.

And they miss this huge disclaimer:

There's more which goes into this obviously and it isn't black and white, but there is some real truth to these numbers and after considering these numbers, one of our focus' ....

 

[Tetsujin]

Your argument for how stupid advanced stats are.

Ethan Strauss ‏@SherwoodStrauss30m
Isaiah Thomas is threatening to have a better advanced stat season than Isiah Thomas ever had

 

[Chubbs]

These stats are important, but of course open to interpretation. The OP made that clear. It's predictable how some interpret them.

If a bunch of fans on the Internet are aware of these numbers, so are opposing teams. Okc wasn't going to let rudy get going. And they succeeded. Is it because they knew we are 8-3 when Rudy scores 20+? Who knows. Not all teams can execute the game plan like they did of course, which is why who we are playing is sometimes as important as anything. One team has Ibaka and Sefolosha and Perkins, all very tough defenders. That's the Thunder. But that game isn't the only point here.

The obvious here is all teams are better when the ball moves and everyone is involved. It seems of particular importance that rudy be involved on this team at this time. 0-8 when he scores less than 20 speaks loudly. It's hard to look objectively at this and deny he needs touches early perhaps more than anyone else.

 

[Glenn]

Simplistically it means IT has to get the ball to Rudy earlier rather than later. THAT will be tough for IT, because as great a scorer as he is, it is not in his DNA to give up the ball and I would guess his height makes it more difficult than for someone taller. I think he needs to be traded especially since I think we won't be able to afford him.

 

[funkykingston]

If we really want to be obtuse we could say that the Kings are 7-0 in games where Rudy Gay hits a three and 1-11 in games in which he doesn't and conclude that Rudy should keep chucking threes until he hits one.

No one is saying that and no one is saying Gay should be force fed shots while IT asked to pass up high percentage looks. But these stats DO jibe with what my eyes have told me. And that is that the Rudy Gay we've seen lately (averaging an eye-popping 19.9 points on just 13.8 shots for the nine games of January due to shooting averages of 55.6%, 47.4% and 94.1%) is an efficient, dangerous scorer WHEN he gets his shots in the flow of the offense.

The big difference between Gay in Sacramento and Gay in Toronto is that he wasn't asked to go and create shots and carry the offense. Gay's scoring (and more importantly his shooting percentages) are a great indicator of how the Kings offense is doing as a whole. Why are the Kings 8-3 when Gay scores 20? In my opinion it's because those are the games where the offense is clicking and the ball is moving and Gay's game is such that he is the player who benefits most from ball movement, structured offense and getting the ball in good positions to score versus the run-and-gun, freewheeling offense that we saw under Smart and which this team still sometimes reverts to.

This isn't about IT per se. Personally I think he's best as a change of pace sixth man where he can fill it up and lead the second unit in scoring every night but honestly I think he can play both styles of ball just fine. On the other hand, I think Thornton thrives in a loosely structured offense (or apparently non structured under Westphal & Smart) which is why he's struggling this year.

To me, this isn't about making sure Rudy gets 20 points. It's about making sure that he (and everyone else) gets good shots in the flow of the offense.

 

[LPKingsFan]

As usual, funkykingston posts similar sentiments as me but states them much more thoroughly and eloquently. Nice post.

 

[Glenn]

If we really want to be obtuse we could say that the Kings are 7-0 in games where Rudy Gay hits a three and 1-11 in games in which he doesn't and conclude that Rudy should keep chucking threes until he hits one.

No one is saying that and no one is saying Gay should be force fed shots while IT asked to pass up high percentage looks. But these stats DO jibe with what my eyes have told me. And that is that the Rudy Gay we've seen lately (averaging an eye-popping 19.9 points on just 13.8 shots for the nine games of January due to shooting averages of 55.6%, 47.4% and 94.1%) is an efficient, dangerous scorer WHEN he gets his shots in the flow of the offense.

The big difference between Gay in Sacramento and Gay in Toronto is that he wasn't asked to go and create shots and carry the offense. Gay's scoring (and more importantly his shooting percentages) are a great indicator of how the Kings offense is doing as a whole. Why are the Kings 8-3 when Gay scores 20? In my opinion it's because those are the games where the offense is clicking and the ball is moving and Gay's game is such that he is the player who benefits most from ball movement, structured offense and getting the ball in good positions to score versus the run-and-gun, freewheeling offense that we saw under Smart and which this team still sometimes reverts to.

This isn't about IT per se. Personally I think he's best as a change of pace sixth man where he can fill it up and lead the second unit in scoring every night but honestly I think he can play both styles of ball just fine. On the other hand, I think Thornton thrives in a loosely structured offense (or apparently non structured under Westphal & Smart) which is why he's struggling this year.

To me, this isn't about making sure Rudy gets 20 points. It's about making sure that he (and everyone else) gets good shots in the flow of the offense.

Yes, the funky man is one of the good posters. My addition is that although IT would be the perfect 6th man, he will be asking for and deserves far too much money for the Kings to afford.

 

[VF21]

This forum is a joke, have only been part of it for less than a week and I'm already hating it. There's a lot more to winning than who score more points!!! As of right now the Kings are a direct reflection of the people on here. I like the Kings but no one on their team is my favorite player but since i live in Sacramento I support them. No one on here has the solution or is in the position to say who belongs and who doesn't... There's only one team, either you support the team and acknowledge the area they need to improve on while on here or just do us all a favor and break your keyboard.!!


Now.. There's is no doubt we are a better team when all of our 3 main guys are playing good but to say we are better team when Gay scores 20 points or more couldn't be any further from the truth(Just ask Kobe). Maybe there is other stats that lead to the win such as good offensive rebounding, forced turn overs where Gay was on the receiving end of someone else hustling. We don't have a Lebron, Durant, Kobe, or D-wade on this team but we do have five guys that have shown us they can compete and beat the leagues best, now everything rest on the coach to get them to be consistent. Every single one of our flaws can be suppressed by good coaching, so next year will be a test for Malone than anything else. If there is any player that refuse to buy into the team they can close the door on the way out.

Luckily for you, there's nothing holding you here if you hate it so badly.