I didn't get to everyone I wanted to cover but today's the day so here's part 2 of my "first impressions only" on this year's projected first round prospects. For the guys I covered previously, here's a handy
link to PART 1 (on page 18 of this thread).
I'm using the same format... Player Name (pos) -- positives / negatives PROJECTED NBA ROLE.
Also I've
bolded and underlined the players who I think represent good fits for our current roster and franchise situation (on the playoff bubble with a solid existing core of Fox / Murray / Sabonis but looking to solidify our playoff credentials, continue to improve the defense into top 10 territory, and add some more nuance to the offense). I don't have any All-Star upside guys in this part though there's always a chance any of these guys could have an insane will to improve and get themselves there.
Part 2 of 2:
STARTER UPSIDE
- KyShawn George (SF) -- dangerous shooter from deep, catch and shoot, self-creation skills, some pull-up proficiency, uses length to finish over defenders, heads up playmaker - not selfish, very active defender / average athleticism, thin frame (but he uses it well), lack of production? TWO-WAY WING
- Jared McCain (PG / SG) -- silky smooth handle, flawless shooting mechanics, good balance and body control, crafty finisher, uses step backs and pull-ups to create separation, plays passing lanes / more scorer than playmaker, limited verticality, not much of a first step SHOOTING SPECIALIST
- Donovan Clingan (C) -- good base, seals off defenders and keeps it simple with hook shots and drop steps, blocks a ton of shots, excellent PnR drop defender - slides his feet well, heads up passing ability, could develop a jumpshot / poor FT shooter, swings and misses on a lot of post attempts, low minutes - conditioning issue? DEFENSIVE SPECIALIST BIG
- Carlton "Bub" Carrington (PG / SG) -- iso specialist, shoots off the dribble, will pull up from anywhere, good crossover and hesitation move, slick one-handed passer, good ball control - low dribble is tough to pick / dribbles out of easy shots into hard ones, LOVES hero ball ISO-HEAVY SCORING GUARD
- Kyle Filipowski (PF / C) -- very mobile big, outside shooting, face up drives show agility and ball control, step back jumper, slick decisive passer, finishes plays, weakside shotblocker / lacks strength to hold post position IDEAL PICK AND ROLL BIG
- Pacome Dadiet (SG / SF) -- good off ball movement - finds gaps, one or two dribble pull up, catch and shoot, consistent shooting motion, attacks closeouts, hustle plays, long strides, can hang and finish in the air, pick and roll passing - reads the floor well / forces mid-range jumpers, over-aggressive defender HIGH-ENERGY VERSATILE WING
- Dillon Jones (SG / SF) -- pick and roll shot creator, relentless attacker off the dribble, back to the basket mid-range, big body - can take a bump and finish, finds cutters, always looks for roll man, good hands on defense / lacks burst to get by defenders, mostly a ground-bound athlete, mediocre three point jumper, not a particularly creative passer POWER SCORING WING
- AJ Johnson (PG / SG) -- highlight reel athlete, slick handle, good first step, blur in the open court, instant offense, plays with flair, quick hands / erratic shooting, thin frame, forces tough passes, more AND1 than NBA? CHANGE OF PACE GUARD
POTENTIAL ROTATION GUYS
- Tristan de Silva (SF) -- good shooting form, quick release, turn around mid-range j, loves to cut backdoor, high IQ player - makes quick decisions with and without the ball, finds open teammates, enthusiastic defender - head on a swivel, plays passing lanes / plays upright, high dribble, wide-defensive stance leads to blow by's, limited burst to finish near the basket through contact FAN FAVORITE ROLE-PLAYER
- Kal'el Ware (PF / C) -- above the rim finisher, lob threat, great looking fadeaway, unblockable jumper, good agility and balance, put backs, good outside shooter, eye popping athlete, mobile defender. weakside shotblocker / very thin frame, post defense is limited by lack of strength, poor instincts on block attempts, kryptonite? ATHLETIC 3-AND-D BIG
- Terrence Shannon (SG / SF) -- high flyer, explosive athlete, impressive speed in open floor, gets downhill with ease, catch and shoot, pick and roll ballhandler, stop and pop mid-range, plays passing lanes, one-man fastbreak threat / loose handle, too predictable in iso situations, settles for jumpers, man amongst boys? HIGH ENERGY WING
- Nikola Topic (PG) -- quick not fast - moves with purpose, catch and shoot, loves to deploy hang dribble to get downhill, array of floaters and layups from all angles, true PG - passes guys open / too patient? - often dribbles backwards looking for angle to basket, poor shooter, not much defensive impact, injury concerns? PASS FIRST PG
- Tyler Smith (PF / C) -- good shooter - mid-range out to 3pt line, very agile for his size, / thin frame, avoids contact, post game? STRETCH FOUR
- Zach Edey (C) -- powerful post presence, sets up early, outmuscles defenders, go-to move is hook shot, or drop step into layup / screen setting needs work, mobility issues, should dunk the ball more POST SCORING BIG
- Johny Furphy (SF / PF) -- good speed in open floor, moves without the ball, catch and shoot (spot up and moving off screens), heads up playmaker, smart and disciplined defensive player (understands spacing) / limited iso skillset, high dribble, telegraphs passes, thin frame, problems with screen navigation SCORING WING -- FLOOR SPACER
- Trentyn Flowers (SG / SF) -- catch and shoot, good length, straight line drives, dribble hand-off, high flyer, some playmaking aptitude, bouncy athlete - active feet on defense / shaky handle, unorthodox shooting motion, problems with screen navigation RHYTHM SHOOTER
And then to put it all together, here's my current top 20 prospects culled from both lists:
1. Alex Sarr 2. Rob Dillingham 3. Ron Holland II
These are my no brainer picks -- if any of these guys are on the board you
have to pick them regardless of fit. These are elite talents who might not have superstar potential, but they are franchise building blocks and a level above anyone we're likely to find in free agency or trades not involving Fox / Sabonis / Murray. Sarr has the furthest to go to be NBA ready but as a burgeoning outside shooter and defensive dynamo he's still my overall #1 pick. I think Dilingham's scoring/playmaking and Ron Holland's elite defense should translate from day one but these guys do have some growing up to do on defense and offense, respectively.
4. Isaiah Collier 5. Devin Carter 6. Stephon Castle 7. Ja'Kobe Walter
This doubles as the "do we really need another guard?" tier. The obvious answer is no but that's not what the draft is about. In the big picture you're looking to fill holes in the rotation with your off-season player acquisitions but in the
draft specifically the goal is to maximize your overall talent level and you do that by identifying players who will outperform their draft class peers in the NBA. Castle and Carter are the better defenders in this group and both have tools on offense that should eventually make them two-way players.
Walter and Collier are both all-around scorers who can put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. Walter has an unusual mix of being both really good as a defender off-the-ball and really bad when defending on-the-ball. Collier has a lot of physical tools that should lead to him being an impact defender but his interest level on that side of the floor is inconsistent right now, suggesting to me that he needs the right coach to light a fire under him and make that more of a priority.
8. Matas Buzelis 9. DaRon Holmes II 10. Yves Missi 11. Ryan Dunn
This group is about overall potential (and reflects my defense-first bias). Each of these players does come with some serious limitations but I think their upside outweighs those limitations. Buzelis is a stretch four who also happens to be an above-average defender (particularly near the basket) and a pretty good playmaker for his size. The drawback is that despite having good shooting form, his 3pt shooting wasn't particularly good this year in the G League. Holmes is an all-around talent who shoots the three and also mixes it up inside as a shot-blocker. Limitations are that he's just okay as a rebounder and is too predictable in his off-the-dribble shot creation skills which probably keeps him in the role-player category as a pro. As a shooting threat and a big-bodied defensive deterrent around the basket, he'd at least be a very valuable role-player.
Yves Missi is a classic pick and roll center who does all of his scoring near the basket and can throw down an alley-oop dunk with authority. His shot-blocking and rebounding are good not elite, but he is still very young and with his size and athleticism the potential there is tantalizing. You're not getting any kind of a jumper with him though and he averaged twice as many turnovers as assists. Ryan Dunn is a terrific defender with a great frame to wreak havoc all over the court as a 3/4 who can stay in front of guards and plays taller due to his athleticism. Woah is his shooting ugly though! He's around 50% from the FT line and 20% from three and shows a Ben Simmons esque aversion to shot attempts outside of 10 feet. Basically his fit on offense is as all-around bad as his defense is elite. To take him this high you have to be confident in developing him to where he won't be a liability on offense. He shows some occasional flashes with his hustle / energy and above the rim hops but this ranking is really a reflection of how highly I rate his defensive skillset.
12. KyShawn George 13. Reed Sheppard 14. Jared McCain 15. Donovan Clingan
This group is the high floor compliment to the previous group's gamble on upside. Every player here has an elite skill which will likely translate to the NBA. I say
likely because there's always a Jimmer Fredette factor where even an elite tool doesn't play as well at the NBA level so I still think you've got some bust potential here. KyShawn George is already a knockdown 3pt shooter but it's his shot-creation and passing potential which excite me the most. With his long frame he's able to compensate for his average athleticism to be a dangerous scorer and a good all-around defender. For all his tools though, the production this year at Miami was underwhelming and his low FT attempt rate does not bode well for his overall scoring output in the NBA. Reed Sheppard was as elite as it gets as a 3pt shooter this year and he's also a really smart player who makes heads up plays on both sides of the floor. I have him ranked lower than most but only because size limits his positional versatility (on offense and defense) and I hesitate to fully buy in to one year of shooting data. I do think he's legit -- just with a lower ceiling than some other prospects in this draft.
Jared McCain is a little bit boring as a prospect since he simply knows his role and always plays within himself. Like Sheppard he's a smaller guard who doesn't display a lot of self-creation talent or creativity with the ball in his hands but I think the shooting will translate and that alone should give him a role in the NBA. With Clingan the college-level production was just monstrous (granted his minutes were low) but in the modern 3pt heavy NBA, the relative value of a post-oriented shot-blocking big isn't what it used to be. I could see someone looking at his passing ability and occasional 3pt make and dreaming that there's a Jokic-lite lurking inside that huge frame. I settled on putting him here in the high floor category because I think if nothing else he's a defensive anchor which other teams have to alter their gameplan to account for. Hopefully he's able to play starter's minutes in the NBA.
16. Jaylon Tyson 17. "Bub" Carrington 18. Kyle Filipowski 19. Pacome Dadiet 20. Dillon Jones
Jaylon Tyson and Carlton "Bub" Carrington are both gifted iso-oriented scoring guards who have NBA quality dribbling moves and shot-making ability but may struggle to incorporate themselves into an offense that doesn't revolve around them dominating the ball on every possession. In this range though I think you're just happy to be getting a guy who will slot into an NBA rotation somewhere.
I have Filipowski rated higher than a number of bigs who may be seen as having higher ceilings. That's because I really like his overall skillset and basketball IQ. He can do so many different things well that he's a guy who I think would fit in with any modern NBA roster. With some of the other bigs in this draft, their role is more situational and team dependent.
Pacome Dadiet was a surprise for me -- I haven't heard him mentioned very much in the lead up to this year's draft but I think his combination of on-ball skills and intelligent off-ball movement give him a higher upside (in my eyes) than many of the more buzz-worthy international wings in this class. Dillon Jones is a stocky SG/SF who does most of his damage attacking the basket off the dribble. His offensive game is all herky-jerky energy, cross-overs, step backs, and leveraging his strength to finish near the basket. The only thing he lacks is a consistent 3pt jumper. He's seen as more of a second round talent by most but I loved Bonzi Wells (as a lot of other Kings fans did) and Dillon Jones' game invites the comparison. He gets a bit of a boost for his "Bonzi Wells nostalgia" intangible.
NOTABLE OMISSIONS (FROM MY TOP 20):
Tidjane Salaun, Cody Williams, and Zacharrie Risacher are the highest ranked prospects who are misses for me. I see more tools than basketball savvy with this trio and even the tools are just okay. Salaun probably has the highest upside of the three because of his athletic ability and enthusiastic attitude on defense but I don't see him ever being more than an off-ball space the floor role-player type. Cody Williams has talent but everything related to his feel for the game is a negative for me. Risacher doesn't impress me as either a scorer or a defender -- by NBA lottery standards he's mediocre at both. Granted I had the same opinion about Michael Porter Jr., the current NBA guy who Risacher has been compared to most, so take that for what it's worth.
I will credit Nikola Topic for his natural playmaking talent and shifty ability to create angles to get himself to the basket off the dribble. Too much hinges on him becoming an effective shooter for me to confidently slot him in with either the high-ceiling or the high-floor guys though, especially when even his best-case scenario outcome still results in a team needing to hide him on defense.
Dalton Knecht is an interesting case. I see him as more of a project than most do. The shooting and athletic ability suggest he might belong in the high floor category I listed above but he's just not been good defending opposing wings in open space and that's going to get infinitely more difficult against NBA wings. Not everyone can make the transition from college to the NBA -- sometimes a player tops out as an elite NCAA player. When I watch Dalton play I don't see a lot of NBA skills aside from his shooting and that imparts a level of risk which keeps him near the end of the first round but not the lottery for me.
Tristan de Silva is obviously a very smart basketball player who seems like he should be able to fill a role on an NBA bench. I just don't see a lot of upside for more than that given his athletic limitations.