Expectations of Kings' defense, 2021-22
- Thread starter Woot!
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Defense is probably 30-40% scheme, 60-70% effort. I really think they'll bring MUCH better effort this year - and probably better schemes as well. Christie at least gives us a chance on the latter front. And on the player front, the culture change isn't just about Davion. Thompson and Len will both bring effort and leadership on that end. Davion, Thompson, Len, Harkless, and Davis are all guys - four of them likely rotation guys - known for being hard-nosed, defense-first.
Nothing is guaranteed, but I'm genuinely surprised expectations are so low here. The most *optimistic* take I've seen is that if all goes well the Kings will compete for the #8-seed. Pshaw.
I look forward to celebrating with you all when they rise above your expectations!
Nothing is guaranteed, but I'm genuinely surprised expectations are so low here. The most *optimistic* take I've seen is that if all goes well the Kings will compete for the #8-seed. Pshaw.
I look forward to celebrating with you all when they rise above your expectations!
I have high expectations for Cookies and his potential culture change that he can spew on the rest of the team despite Luke, Bagley and Buddy still here. With that said, if truly is a culture changer then I can already see the Kings being somewhere around 15-20 and that's a big jump from being the worst. Even if he doesn't have the immediate impact, this team has plenty of capable defenders, it's about buying in and trusting that you are covered if someone gets by you or gives you a solid nudge.
Again, Kings ranked 23rd over the entire second half of last year. Mitchell, Thompson, Len, Christie, Longabardi, a deeper bench, and the promise of renewed emphasis on defense and your expectation is no improvement (at best)?
Of course your expectation might end up closer to the truth than mine, but expecting no improvement at all doesn't seem at all "realistic" to me.
Of course your expectation might end up closer to the truth than mine, but expecting no improvement at all doesn't seem at all "realistic" to me.
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It can be difficult to believe because how active and long both Fox and Hali are. But you know what, they are both horrible defensive rebounders. It does not matter what you do during the defensive possessions if at the end you can't secure them.
This team was 29th in defensive rebounding. As a result, they gave up the 3rd most shots within 5ft of the basket.
This team was 29th in defensive rebounding. As a result, they gave up the 3rd most shots within 5ft of the basket.
I think it will wind up being a crap shoot. If Mitchell replaces Wrights minutes, it should be an improvement on defense but you replaced your best perimeter defender with a better perimeter defender so it's not like replacing Hield with Tony Allen. The rest of these guys are bottom of the barrel players. Teams don't make a run because they acquired Len or Thompson. Especially when they are replacing Whiteside's minutes, who is a better defender than both. If they replace Bagley's minutes at the 5, then that's a big improvement.
The crux of the defensive problem stems from 4 of our 6 top MPG guys being terrible defenders with the other 2 being average at best. I don't know if there was enough of a roster turnover to really cause a big bump in defense. Mitchell looks like he will be the best defender out of those 6 guys from game 1 but if lineups are consisting of our same old non defenders with a defender sprinkled in here and there, then I'm not sure if there will be a big improvement.
Mitchell having a hand in changing the culture could potentially cause an improvement, even if they're trotting out the same non defenders. It'll be interesting to see. Louis King could even possibly play a role here if he can give us better minutes than Harkless.
The crux of the defensive problem stems from 4 of our 6 top MPG guys being terrible defenders with the other 2 being average at best. I don't know if there was enough of a roster turnover to really cause a big bump in defense. Mitchell looks like he will be the best defender out of those 6 guys from game 1 but if lineups are consisting of our same old non defenders with a defender sprinkled in here and there, then I'm not sure if there will be a big improvement.
Mitchell having a hand in changing the culture could potentially cause an improvement, even if they're trotting out the same non defenders. It'll be interesting to see. Louis King could even possibly play a role here if he can give us better minutes than Harkless.
Found it, or at least one mention:
https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/coach-christie-it’s-actually-happening.80313/post-1580524
https://community.kingsfans.com/threads/coach-christie-it’s-actually-happening.80313/post-1580524
If you are blaming the Kings' poor defensive rebounding on the guards, you are looking in the wrong place. I'm not saying they don't need to be better, but our big men have not rebounded anywhere near as well as they should. I think this is a big reason for getting TT and Len. Both are good rebounders.
Well defensive rebounding was a big part of why they were the 2 worst defenders on the team. All of advanced stats point to them being the worst defenders on the team.
This is DRPM from ESPN. Hali is 90th out of 91 PGs. Fox is 29th.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/3/sort/DRPM/position/1
This is RAPTOR rating from 538. Sort for Kings
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/
This is LEBRON metric. Sort for Kings
https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-data-viz/
This is DRAPM
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=-1217804387
As far as defensive rebounding, use this one from NBA.com
https://go.nba.com/ynas
The most important columns are the DREB CHANCES, ADJUSTED DREB CHANCES %, and the AVG DREB DISTANCE.
The DREB CHANCES tells you how good a player creates potential rebounds. But those numbers have to be normalized by 36 minutes if you want to compare players to players and NBA does not let you do that there. I had to copy to excel to do it.
ADJUSTED DREB CHANCES % tells you how good a player contributes to team rebound in general.
AVG DREB DISTANCE tells you how far away from the basket a player rebounds. This can somewhat tells you what kind of defensive role a player has. Shortest distance are likely center and largest distance are likely guards. Forwards are in between.
Fox and Hali don't track rebounds well. I mean they just don't get closer to where a ball could land to even create a chance for it.
As far as the the signings of TT and Len, I can think of a few reasons:
This is DRPM from ESPN. Hali is 90th out of 91 PGs. Fox is 29th.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/3/sort/DRPM/position/1
This is RAPTOR rating from 538. Sort for Kings
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/
This is LEBRON metric. Sort for Kings
https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-data-viz/
This is DRAPM
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=-1217804387
As far as defensive rebounding, use this one from NBA.com
https://go.nba.com/ynas
The most important columns are the DREB CHANCES, ADJUSTED DREB CHANCES %, and the AVG DREB DISTANCE.
The DREB CHANCES tells you how good a player creates potential rebounds. But those numbers have to be normalized by 36 minutes if you want to compare players to players and NBA does not let you do that there. I had to copy to excel to do it.
ADJUSTED DREB CHANCES % tells you how good a player contributes to team rebound in general.
AVG DREB DISTANCE tells you how far away from the basket a player rebounds. This can somewhat tells you what kind of defensive role a player has. Shortest distance are likely center and largest distance are likely guards. Forwards are in between.
Fox and Hali don't track rebounds well. I mean they just don't get closer to where a ball could land to even create a chance for it.
As far as the the signings of TT and Len, I can think of a few reasons:
- Holmes is pretty well below average rebounder for a center
- Can't really sign guards since Fox and Hali are needed for offense and will play big minutes
Expectations? Not very high....bringing back many of the same players. The Kings last year were one of the most erratic Kings teams in awhile - going on long losing and winning streaks. Besides defense the team also needs to attack the basket more collectively - they have been one the bottom tier teams on FTA for quite awhile.
I think you completely missed my point. While it is nice to have good rebounding guards, the Kings' rebounding problems were because of their big men. Holmes is an average rebounder & Barnes is average at best as s SF, but well below average at PF. Bagley might be the best overall rebounder, but is still average on the defensive side of the floor (and he can't stay on the floor.
It is completely fair to assume this. But we had decent defensive centers before and we were still no more than 20th rank defense. It is debatable where the problem lies, the bad guards or the under-average center. Well it is easier to improve from the center position than the guard, at least for this team.
On the other hand, we may not need the guards to improve their defensive rebounding. With Davion Mitchell, I think they can do something irregular defensively, something like the Raptors' defensive system. The Raptors do ball pressure, play the passing lane and when they get beat, they just foul instead of giving up good shots. The Raptors are excellent at generating turnovers but bad at everything else and yet they were 15th ranked defense. The Kings can do something similar. Mitchell can be the ball pressure guard. Fox and Hali on the wings playing the passing lane.
On the other hand, we may not need the guards to improve their defensive rebounding. With Davion Mitchell, I think they can do something irregular defensively, something like the Raptors' defensive system. The Raptors do ball pressure, play the passing lane and when they get beat, they just foul instead of giving up good shots. The Raptors are excellent at generating turnovers but bad at everything else and yet they were 15th ranked defense. The Kings can do something similar. Mitchell can be the ball pressure guard. Fox and Hali on the wings playing the passing lane.
I think the rebounding issues are team wide, not just one group or another. Fox and Hali are very poor rebounders and Davion Mitchell looks like he's going to be even worse than they are. Hield is a good rebounder at the 2 but below average at the 3. Barnes the same when he's playing the 4. Harkless rebounded like a SG last year. Holmes and Bagley are both barely averaging a tick over 10 per36 and Len for some reason last year averaged a hair under 10 per36. Thompson is the only good rebounder other than Woodward, who isn't very good at basketball yet.
It's a legit concern but there's not much they can do about it at this point.
Edit - Len's down year was probably because of Westbrook. Makes more sense to let Westbrook come down with the rebound and take off with it.
It's a legit concern but there's not much they can do about it at this point.
Edit - Len's down year was probably because of Westbrook. Makes more sense to let Westbrook come down with the rebound and take off with it.
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Yeah Westbrook just pillages the Center rebound rate. Adams is a great example where he jumped up to 19.2% in OKC without Westbrook and even 17.4% last year playing next to guys like Zion and even Lonzo, who probably is the 2nd best rebounding guard in the league. Hovered around 14.%-15% with Westbrook.