I don't even limit that to "average" players, though. I already brought up Kawhi Leonard and the Kings, but I don't believe that Damian Lillard becomes DAMIAN LILLARD, if he gets drafted by the post-LeBron Cleveland Cavaliers, instead of Dion Waiters. I don't think that Paul George ever becomes PAUL GEORGE, if he gets taken fourth by the Timberwolves, instead of tenth, by the Pacers. Hell, talk about revisionist history, does anyone actually believe that Stephen Curry would have actually become STEPH CURRY, if he had gone Number One overall, to the Clippers?
I don't think that there are any more than one or two "can't miss" players in any given draft. And some draft years (*cough2013cough*) don't even have that many. How pretty much everybody else turns out is practically a roll of the dice.