Even with the rules they have now unless rookies wanted to play for league minimums and ride the pine it might work with a few tweaks.
Draft Lotto Thread (2025 edition)
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
The problem imho is the appearance of it being rigged along with teams blatantly tanking.
Item 1) is fixable with even odds and allowing each team rep to pull one ball/envelope/whatever that they all agree on are equal and indistinguishable (bent corner conspiracy theory).
Item 2) cheats paying fans and the competitive balance of the league as a whole.
Even odds solves both of those problems.
Well, see, that's why you impose hard roster limits, too. To prevent teams from stockpiling good players on minimum contracts. Besides, the reason why I say it'd resolve itself is because there aren't but so many Good™ players that would be willing to come off the bench and/or play for significantly less than what they can get on the open market, just to win a ring/be in a major market. Let the ones who want to do that be allowed to do that; the rest are going to go where the money and/or minutes are.
kingsboi
Hall of Famer
whether some believe its rigged or not, we will still watch the product. How to fix this? well that's a tougher approach. Giving it to the worst team record wise would be a disaster in this sport, in the NFL it works fine due to the roster size. I'm for giving the top 5 worst teams the same amount of odds of winning the lottery and then the rest based off of record. Picking number one doesn't automatically mean you get a franchise cornerstone. We don't know how Flagg will pan out in the pros. The best thing these lottery teams can do is hit on the majority of their draft picks, especially those smaller market clubs, it's imperative, otherwise they will be on the hamster wheel like the Kings have been for about two decades. This is another relief also of no longer supporting one team and instead just being a fan of the sport in general.
I agree that it will resolve itself and paired with a genuine hard cap it would happen quickly.
Also I don't think there is any way to undo the perception the lottery is rigged at this point. It's been that way since Patrick Ewing entered the league and it's only gotten worse over 40 years. At least a free market entry system - which would probably also trickle down to the NCAA unless the NCAA figures out a way to control what is happening now, would create a new system that is at least arguably equally if not more fair.
And again, teams playing hard down the stretch regardless of playoff positioning would be rewarded.
sactowndog
All-Star
I’m okay with some odds as long as teams with previous lottery success have their odds adjusted. The Spurs should not be jumping other teams every year and other teams should not be falling every year.
kingsboi
Hall of Famer
such is the way when you play the odds, which is why giving the same teams in a certain range the same percentages is a do-able approach to making it feel more fair. The rest is out of their hands.
They've picked 1/4/2 over 3 years and back to back rookie of the years. That's absolutely ridiculous.
On the other hand we got the first overall in one of the 3 worst drafts of my lifetime. It would be lame to exclude us for a set amount of years solely because we got the opportunity to choose between Pervis Ellison, Sean Elliot, Glen Rice, Danny Ferry, or JR Reid.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
We're the Kings...why do I get the sense that you're ACTUALLY surprised about this???
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
Another brilliant idea that the NBA can implement is to do what the NHL just did for their "NHL draft lottery". And that is to actually televise the entire thing, so everyone can see the ping pong balls being drawn.
Honestly, I don't "mind" the way the NBA draft lottery is configured; It truly is the most fair way to determine the final draft order.
Taking a page from the NHL, and televising the actual process itself, in my honest opinion, will go a long way in enlisting trust in the fans that the system is, in fact, not rigged.
Honestly, I don't "mind" the way the NBA draft lottery is configured; It truly is the most fair way to determine the final draft order.
Taking a page from the NHL, and televising the actual process itself, in my honest opinion, will go a long way in enlisting trust in the fans that the system is, in fact, not rigged.
The NBA's lottery is so thoroughly complex they can't televise the drawing I don't think. It would probably look even more rigged if they did!
That's why I've been advocating a one ball/one pull by team reps type of solution that can't be fudged if it must continue.
chief bromden
Starter
Wait, what? The NBA does the same thing that the NHL does for the most part. 14 numbered ping pong balls in a machine, 4 ping pong balls drawn for each pick 1-4. 1000 possible combinations divvied up to all the lottery teams. Do I have that wrong?
Jdbraver137
Bench
And 0 transparency.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
Padrino
All-Star
There are all kinds of strategies the league could employ to de-incentivize tanking or restore competitive balance amongst the NBA's basement dwellers. But at a certain point, luck itself becomes the most important factor here. To be the Mavericks in 2025 is to be lucky, because they won the draft lottery in spite of the extremely long odds in a year with a highly-touted #1 prospect who represents a consensus "can't miss" selection in Cooper Flagg. But to be the winner of the draft lottery in, say, 2013 or 2017 was to be unlucky ultimately, because there was no highly-touted prospect that represented a consensus "can't miss" selection. There were plenty of good players in those drafts, but drafting Anthony Bennett or Markelle Fultz at #1 because of lotto luck is quite a bit different than drafting LeBron James or Victor Wembanyama at #1 because of lotto luck.
It's unfortunate for Kings fans that the franchise's luck has largely been awful since arriving in Sacramento. After all, you've only got three pathways to construct your roster: free agency, the trade block, and the draft. It's already difficult to build a winner in a small market when free agents aren't inclined to sign with your team, or when they tell you they won't re-sign with your franchise if you trade for their services. With that reality in mind, the draft becomes incredibly important. The Kings scored a bit of lotto luck in the years when they picked DeMarcus Cousins and De'Aaron Fox, but failed to draft well in the years that followed the Cousins pick and in quite a few of the years that followed the Fox pick. You can't fritter away first rounders by trading them haphazardly or consistently whiffing on your picks. Nor can you expect the basketball gods to grace your franchise simply because of several generations' worth of bad lotto luck.
That said, hopefully Scott Perry is up to the task of working with what he's got, since no Cooper Flagg-like savior is going to be gifted unto the city of Sacramento. The Kings certainly don't have the worst outlook of any franchise in the NBA, because after the upcoming draft, they will have control over the vast majority of their own draft assets, and they've got some good young talent with two-way potential already in Keegan Murray, Devin Carter, and Keon Ellis. Vivek would be wise to let Perry retool the roster with those three as his first building blocks, but since that is unlikely to happen, Perry just needs to be cautious about not tossing away draft capital in pursuit of winning now. The west is tough today and tougher tomorrow. The uphill battle only gets harder if the Kings' draft capital gets squandered.
It's unfortunate for Kings fans that the franchise's luck has largely been awful since arriving in Sacramento. After all, you've only got three pathways to construct your roster: free agency, the trade block, and the draft. It's already difficult to build a winner in a small market when free agents aren't inclined to sign with your team, or when they tell you they won't re-sign with your franchise if you trade for their services. With that reality in mind, the draft becomes incredibly important. The Kings scored a bit of lotto luck in the years when they picked DeMarcus Cousins and De'Aaron Fox, but failed to draft well in the years that followed the Cousins pick and in quite a few of the years that followed the Fox pick. You can't fritter away first rounders by trading them haphazardly or consistently whiffing on your picks. Nor can you expect the basketball gods to grace your franchise simply because of several generations' worth of bad lotto luck.
That said, hopefully Scott Perry is up to the task of working with what he's got, since no Cooper Flagg-like savior is going to be gifted unto the city of Sacramento. The Kings certainly don't have the worst outlook of any franchise in the NBA, because after the upcoming draft, they will have control over the vast majority of their own draft assets, and they've got some good young talent with two-way potential already in Keegan Murray, Devin Carter, and Keon Ellis. Vivek would be wise to let Perry retool the roster with those three as his first building blocks, but since that is unlikely to happen, Perry just needs to be cautious about not tossing away draft capital in pursuit of winning now. The west is tough today and tougher tomorrow. The uphill battle only gets harder if the Kings' draft capital gets squandered.
NHL has changed their lottery format I guess 4-5x in the last 15 years. My mistake. The NBA process really feels convoluted to me, there are definitely ways to make it more tv friendly and feel less rigged. Still the bigger problem to me is tanking and as long as you .
I know teams tank to some extent in every sport but imho the NHL draft is really not the same as NBA. Connor McDavid averages a little more than 20mpg or 1/3rd of the available minutes whereas your generational NBA talent plays 3/4+ of the available minutes. Teams carry 23 players and dress 20. Since I've watched there's been a handful of once a generation talent come through that teams banked their future on, Eric Lindross - refused to report to the team that drafted him, drafted again and despite being a very good player who was mired by injuries, never was really close to game changing at the level even every third NBA #1 pick is. Joe Thornton was probably the next super rookie. The Bruins got better after the lopsided trade (against them) to the Sharks, who certainly enjoyed their best run of success while he was there but never sniffed a cup. Sid the kid, actually has 3 cups. Book is still out on McDavid, he may get Edmonton there. Noteworthy I think that Jack Eichel picked right after him and one of the best talents I've seen in college hockey ever got a cup but on his second team. Sabres still suck. Connor Bedard and Macklin Celibrini have deep holes to get out of. To me it doesn't feel like winning the NHL lottery is a ticket to winning your division in the next 3-5 years the way winning the NBA draft can be.
sactowndog
All-Star
You can still weight balls
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
I get your point, but I'm not sure that it is a direct result of the way the NBA draft functions as much as it is a direct result of the fact that the NBA loves its "Super/Mega Teams". The game of hockey (i.e. the rules, the style of game/play, the physicality) makes it difficult for the NHL to sustain having "Super/Mega Teams", because the season's so brutal, it almost makes it impossible for a team to establish enough forward momentum to build a "dynasty" (although it has been done before). The NBA has become too soft, and the league too protective of its "star players", that they thrive on establishing "Super/Mega Teams" that go on to build dynasties.
QWERTYLICIOUS
Starter
huh?
I won't completely argue with that being a major blindside of the Silver era - protecting the legacy players and emerging stars from Stern's end days, and only allowing a handful of new stars to emerge while seemingly holding other guys back (Fox's whistle exhibit A). Even OKC players like Shai complain about OKC getting small market treatment so I think Silver filters it to big market advantages.
NHL certainly has one of the most restrictive caps in North American pro sports outside MLS and women's leagues. The Thornton trade was largely predicated on that, many other franchise players were sent packing after signing large contracts prior to the mid-00's league shutdown that were unsustainable after.
My biggest issue is that the NBA is the only sport where teams are thoroughly punished for trying to win if they are bad. NFL you can blow up a roster and turn it around in a season or two. NHL you need depth on lines 2 and 3 plus at least 4 defensemen to survive. The whole concept of 2-3 players that take up 60-75% of your cap space and play 80% of your minutes is completely foreign in almost every other sport.
It just isn't sustainable to have half the league rooting for their team to lose and figuring out ways to sit their best players or employ a G-league team at NBA ticket prices to do so. Especially after the break when the "serious" teams are fighting for playoff spots and some teams get soft schedules solely because their opponents have thrown in the towel.
KingsFanSince85
All-Star
If players being drafted directly out of high school had been en vogue a few years sooner, that 1989 draft could have been the KINGS selecting Shaquille O’Neal.
Dawkins and Malone had been drafted out of HS before, but the practice didn’t really start back up until Garnett in 1995.
I don't disagree, but all I can do about that is chuckle to myself, and keep it moving. Like I've said before, the thing about conspiracy theorists is that they can't be reasoned out of believing in the conspiracy, because anything that contradicts the conspiracy is just "proof" that they're trying to "cover up" the conspiracy.
Funny you go there since maybe the best player in that class was picked without D1 college experience. Of course nobody would have used a top 10 pick on Sean Kemp, who wound up picked 17.
At the end of the day I just want some integrity restored to teams trying their best to win. In my eyes the lottery and even the NBA draft structure right now have completely undone that by punishing teams that try. Even if you don't have San Antonio hitting multiple generational big drafts in a row, seemingly after an injury or single down year. Or Dallas miraculously winning after inexplicably trading a top 5 player to Los Angeles for pennies, ok maybe quarters, on the dollar. Or Cleveland hitting whenever LeBron goes away.
I'm warming up to the idea of just letting rookies negotiate. If there's only so many spots and so many dollars... and in the end you might actually have guys stick around because they picked the team they went to first.
OffTheWallJamal
Starter
Listening Zach Lowe podcast right now. Before the last lottery ball was drawn we still had an opportunity for the first overall pick. 
Yes, this actually makes sense that our ball sequences were basically the same as Dallas' ball sequences. C'est la vie.Listening Zach Lowe podcast right now. Before the last lottery ball was drawn we still had an opportunity for the first overall pick.
I for one look forward to whoever is picked 13th spending the next 2-3 years as the solution to all our problems on this forum until they flame out of the league before signing a second contract.
The players have always been very adamantly against a hard salary cap. Your proposal would make things worse for most of the league for two reasons:
1) The total pool of money would be effectively decreased - because teams would not be able to spend over the cap
2) The very best players would eat up even higher percentages of the cap, leaving less overall money for anybody not in the, say, top 10 players
Hard cap has always been a no-go for the NBAPA. Hard cap with no individual salary restrictions would be even worse. Can you imagine LeBron and Luka and Giannis trying to sell it to the rest of the players? "OK, see, we get that all of the rest of you will see your salaries tank, but WE'RE going to make a lot more money!"
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