DeAaron Fox - meeting expectations?

[Capt. Factorial]

I think the point was that Blob insinuated that the majority were looking to make that trade when only a few did. Most wanted Fox with Jackson in 2nd.

I do believe that was the majority, yes. But our friend from Portland did ask, and I answered.

 

[BeerNerd916]

What is fair and unfair about projecting how good or not good you think a player can be based on early returns? Why is that unfair? It's just an inexact science that may prove to be prescient or not. Nothing is 100% certainty but probabilities lean disproportionately when you look for obvious and not-obvious cues.

Rookies tend to establish floors and ceilings sooner than later and provide fairly accurate glimpse of what they can be. All you have to do is look at most players stats year to year and see fairly linear growth relative to efficiency and production. There has to be a baseline efficiency for starters to justify future playing time then you go from there.

Dramatic jumps, say 4 PPG to 15 PPG are possible but more exception than the rule. What can be misleading is players who are given a lot of playing time because of circumstances and produce on bad teams. This doesn't last indefinitely. Raw production can conceal mediocre efficiency that eventually changes their role and perceived value.

This was the case with Tyreke and Michael Carter Williams to a degree two former ROYs. When Tyreke posted 20/5/5 it was with help of high usage and teammates who stood and watched him go 1-2 and 1-3 to mixed results. The questions about true position and ability to get around picks and defend and make teammates better were there from rookie season and persisted most of his career.

I didn't need a sophomore season from Jahlil Okafor to conclude the guy was an apathetic personality and defensive slug and one dimensional scorer and blunder by Mr . Trust the Process when Porzingis was there for the taking.

The Nuggets had high hopes for Emmanuel Mudiay. He was going to be their "franchise point guard". And he struggled terribly as a rookie. There were red flags all over his rookie season . He could not turn the corner on his man. He had impressive size but he lacked the juke moves to create separation and the outside shot to set up the drive to the rim.

You could take the perspective to wait until next year (third years) before considering a success or failure if you want to be ultra-conservative. But I don't need to wait to project what is most likely to be. Okafor and Mudiay may become serviceable back-ups but is either going to transform into a perennial All-Star as originally forecast in best case scenario? Highly unlikely and this was forecastable based on their respective rookie year.

You can always point to exceptions of under the radar players who emerged. But even a guy like Giannis who put up modest numbers as a rookie was envisioned as a future terror based on glimpses he provided as a rookie. I could go on an on. We knew Isaiah could play from Day One. I said 2 weeks into him taking over as starter that Isaiah was a player with no weakness. I said early on the ONLY thing keeping Boogie from perennial all-star status was physical conditioning.

By contrast where were the glimpses from guys like Ben, Stauskas and Jimmer? When you have to squint hard to see competency thats not's not a good sign. You have to squint hard to see Malachi carving out a niche. The glimpses have been too few and too far between. Their careers played out accordingly. Again, I am just telling you the cues are there. To say you cannot formulate a reasonable opinion through half of one year is unfounded.

Dennis Smith Jr is a guy NOT having a good rookie season . I am not going to get into the details why but I will tell you the Mavericks are likely disappointed with him internally. They were comparing him to the Allen Iverson or Steve Francis. No chance. He's not the creative scorer or relentless competitor.

By contrast the Kings front office has to be thrilled with development of De'Aaron. And if the Lakers could go back into a time machine and do the draft again they would take Fox or Donovan over Bust in a heartbeat. They'd be closer to .500 team with Fox. They'd take Fox or Donovan and be thankful to never bear witness to Lonzo Bust's hideous jumper again.

Similarly if Vlade had to do it again, he would take Kouzma over Justin Jackson in a heartbeat too. He doesn't need three years to know now what is obvious as the nose on his face. Kouzma is better today and will be better three years from today. His mentality as an alpha dog and ability as versatile face-up scorer is not going to go away. Whereas the role playing spot shooting mindset and skillset of Justin Jackson is not going suddenly transform over one summer.

I will concede anything is possible. But incremental progress from Day One is the normal occurrence not radical transformation from bottom feeder to superstar.

I totally agree with every conclusion you bring and will add this one thing. I think it was Ryan West who first floated the rumor of 5 and 10 for the 2 pick because he wanted Fox. I remember a report out of Laker camp that they were unsure about Ball and were happy with the Fox workout.

Water under the bridge, but damn I think Jerry West camethisclose to screwing us once again. My own personal take.

 

[NewArena]

great post from Blob, but Isaiah thomas didn't have any weaknesses in your opinion? he has a nice
grocery list of em, IMO.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I think the point was that Blob insinuated that the majority were looking to make that trade when only a few did. Most wanted Fox with Jackson in 2nd.

The vibe was certainly overwhelmingly pro-Fox with most people rooting against Ball - not because of the kid, but because of his dad (and I'll still say rightfully so). Plus most everyone saw this as a deep draft with the opportunity to get two good players at 5 and 10.

People were definitely high on Fultz though. And hey, that's another of the type of guy that I said we can't write off based on his first half season. Steve Nash was another guy that didn't take over the league immediately but ultimately took home a few (questionable?) MVPs. I mean hell someone on the Grizzlies thought it would be a good idea to trade a 2nd overall PG for a 7th overall based on two seasons of output... and all too frequently I feel like the ROY is behind his class 3-4 seasons in.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

The vibe was certainly overwhelmingly pro-Fox with most people rooting against Ball - not because of the kid, but because of his dad (and I'll still say rightfully so).

I'm not sure what you mean here. If you mean there's good reason to root against Lavar Ball, yep, you're absolutely right. If you're saying the dad is such a huge off-the-court distraction that it's not worth having his son on the team, I can see that. If you're saying it's justified to root against Lonzo because you don't like his dad, that's a bridge too far for me. I know people *do* it, but that doesn't make it justified. He's not his dad, he has no control over his dad, he doesn't in any way shape or form act like his dad. I don't think he should be judged on the merits of his dad, he should be judged on his own merits.

 

[Sac.1989]

Lonzo is a good kid with a good head on his shoulders. Im surprised he came from the ball family. I wish him well on the court and with his budding rap career.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I'm not sure what you mean here. If you mean there's good reason to root against Lavar Ball, yep, you're absolutely right. If you're saying the dad is such a huge off-the-court distraction that it's not worth having his son on the team, I can see that. If you're saying it's justified to root against Lonzo because you don't like his dad, that's a bridge too far for me. I know people *do* it, but that doesn't make it justified. He's not his dad, he has no control over his dad, he doesn't in any way shape or form act like his dad. I don't think he should be judged on the merits of his dad, he should be judged on his own merits.

It's a mix of the first two. The dad is a huge problem that doesn't go away. I don't want that anywhere near my team. Maybe his other two kids can keep him in Europe for good. But I suspect he'll be stirring the pot all offseason.

 

[ESP47]

I don't remember much talk at all about trading both picks for just Ball. I feel like the consensus around here for the most part was Fox was our #1 guy. Most assumed that Josh Jackson would be gone before we picked but he would have been 2nd. Tatum and DSJ were a mixed bag for most around here. A good handful of people wanted Isaac if Fox and Jackson were gone too.

A lot of people were talking Markannen and Collins with the 10th pick or Ntilikina if we wound up with a SF at 5. A decent amount of people liked Monk. Just a couple were talking Mitchell. I believe very few talked OG at 10 since it seemed like a reach.

Once the trade was made, a lot of us were hoping we could land OG at 15.

I feel like most were surprised with Giles at 20.

Frank Mason wasn't talked about a whole lot with the 2nd rounder from what I can remember. Swanigan, Ojeleye, Hart and Jawun Evans were probably talked about the most.

If we're being honest, at the time I would have taken Fox at 5 and Collins at 10. After the trade I would have taken OG at 15 and Giles at 20 and rolled the dice on at least one of them being healthy enough to play. I would have then taken Ojeleye with the 2nd round pick. I think Blob would have had the best draft since he was one of the few that was on the Mitchell train from the beginning.

 

[King Baller]

I'm not sure what you mean here. If you mean there's good reason to root against Lavar Ball, yep, you're absolutely right. If you're saying the dad is such a huge off-the-court distraction that it's not worth having his son on the team, I can see that. If you're saying it's justified to root against Lonzo because you don't like his dad, that's a bridge too far for me. I know people *do* it, but that doesn't make it justified. He's not his dad, he has no control over his dad, he doesn't in any way shape or form act like his dad. I don't think he should be judged on the merits of his dad, he should be judged on his own merits.

Lonzo Ball is a Laker. That is all.

 

[BeerNerd916]

I don't remember much talk at all about trading both picks for just Ball. I feel like the consensus around here for the most part was Fox was our #1 guy. Most assumed that Josh Jackson would be gone before we picked but he would have been 2nd. Tatum and DSJ were a mixed bag for most around here. A good handful of people wanted Isaac if Fox and Jackson were gone too.

A lot of people were talking Markannen and Collins with the 10th pick or Ntilikina if we wound up with a SF at 5. A decent amount of people liked Monk. Just a couple were talking Mitchell. I believe very few talked OG at 10 since it seemed like a reach.

Once the trade was made, a lot of us were hoping we could land OG at 15.

I feel like most were surprised with Giles at 20.

Frank Mason wasn't talked about a whole lot with the 2nd rounder from what I can remember. Swanigan, Ojeleye, Hart and Jawun Evans were probably talked about the most.

If we're being honest, at the time I would have taken Fox at 5 and Collins at 10. After the trade I would have taken OG at 15 and Giles at 20 and rolled the dice on at least one of them being healthy enough to play. I would have then taken Ojeleye with the 2nd round pick. I think Blob would have had the best draft since he was one of the few that was on the Mitchell train from the beginning.

Blob nailed Mitchell. But then again, isn't he a 3 year college player?

Edit: He was a 2 year player out of college

 

[Jimbob]

I don't remember much talk at all about trading both picks for just Ball. I feel like the consensus around here for the most part was Fox was our #1 guy. Most assumed that Josh Jackson would be gone before we picked but he would have been 2nd. Tatum and DSJ were a mixed bag for most around here. A good handful of people wanted Isaac if Fox and Jackson were gone too.

A lot of people were talking Markannen and Collins with the 10th pick or Ntilikina if we wound up with a SF at 5. A decent amount of people liked Monk. Just a couple were talking Mitchell. I believe very few talked OG at 10 since it seemed like a reach.

Once the trade was made, a lot of us were hoping we could land OG at 15.

I feel like most were surprised with Giles at 20.

Frank Mason wasn't talked about a whole lot with the 2nd rounder from what I can remember. Swanigan, Ojeleye, Hart and Jawun Evans were probably talked about the most.

If we're being honest, at the time I would have taken Fox at 5 and Collins at 10. After the trade I would have taken OG at 15 and Giles at 20 and rolled the dice on at least one of them being healthy enough to play. I would have then taken Ojeleye with the 2nd round pick. I think Blob would have had the best draft since he was one of the few that was on the Mitchell train from the beginning.

That's pretty much how I remember the draft discussions. I was all in for Fox if we could land him at 5, and still happy with that pick. I recon hes coming along nicely regardless if he's being used well by the coaching staff.
I too would have gone Zach Collins at 10 after watching him in the tournament, not sure now how I would feel about that, but had warmed up lots to Mitchell at 10, perhaps with some encouragement from Blob.
If Fox was gone at 5, then I was Isaac at 5 and hoped Mitchell would prove a worthy PG pick at 10. Bell would have been my second rounder in this case.
I dislike rolling on players with serious injuries. I still am not optimistic about the trade down for Jackson and Giles who will hopefully surprise me. OG is looking good though for a player with an injury concern so perhaps I need to be more open minded.

 

[VF21]

I would enjoy talking with the 5 people that voted "sometimes."

It's a public poll. Just click on the number of votes and it will display the names of those who voted.

 

[VF21]

I'm not sure what you mean here. If you mean there's good reason to root against Lavar Ball, yep, you're absolutely right. If you're saying the dad is such a huge off-the-court distraction that it's not worth having his son on the team, I can see that. If you're saying it's justified to root against Lonzo because you don't like his dad, that's a bridge too far for me. I know people *do* it, but that doesn't make it justified. He's not his dad, he has no control over his dad, he doesn't in any way shape or form act like his dad. I don't think he should be judged on the merits of his dad, he should be judged on his own merits.

While I agree with that, I also believe teams who considered Ball as a possible player also had to consider what it would be like to have to deal with his dad. I suspect that could be part of the reason we didn't hear any rumbles about teams trying to trade up to get him.

 

[VF21]

Sacramento Kings‏Verified account@SacramentoKings 1h1 hour ago


Fox is on the rise!

where he landed in the latest rookie rankings » http://spr.ly/6019DOyGN

Hint: He's ranked between #4 and #2.

 

[Kingster]

Sacramento Kings‏Verified account@SacramentoKings 1h1 hour ago


Fox is on the rise!

where he landed in the latest rookie rankings » http://spr.ly/6019DOyGN

Hint: He's ranked between #4 and #2.

Now Bogs has got to get back in the top 10. He's been in a slump lately.

 

[Gliesian]

Now Bogs has got to get back in the top 10. He's been in a slump lately.

He needs to get away from bball for a bit I think. Dude hasn't had a break in... a year and a half?

 

[Kingster]

He needs to get away from bball for a bit I think. Dude hasn't had a break in... a year and a half?

Yeah, he looks like he has some heavy legs. I think against the Warriors he may have broken out of his mini slump though.

 

[LPKingsFan]

Fox's shot was looking nice last night. The box score says he was 0/3 from beyond the arc, but I would have sworn I saw one go in. Nevertheless, he was hitting from the midrange, which will still help keep defenses honest.

 

[bajaden]

well shoot. you're a long term, respectable poster... defeating my narrative here Captain.

You have to include a bit of bias with the Capt when it comes to a UCLA player.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

You have to include a bit of bias with the Capt when it comes to a UCLA player.

Jeez, and right as I was writing about how I don't think Kris Wilkes is that great in the other thread...!

 

[YoungBlood]

Fox's shot was looking nice last night. The box score says he was 0/3 from beyond the arc, but I would have sworn I saw one go in. Nevertheless, he was hitting from the midrange, which will still help keep defenses honest.

His foot was on the line for one, but it was essentially a three.

 

[Telemachus]

His foot was on the line for one, but it was essentially a three.

Yes. He pulled off a Mitch Richmond 3.

 

[Cojc]

I do not like to lose but I like our direction. Since before we traded Cousins our backcourt was a sorry state and now after less a few months we are looking at a pretty darn good backcourt for the future.
Hopefully we can pickup a key piece for our front court as long as we stay in the bottom where we need to be.

Should we trade away some of our youth without mentioning them yeah I’m OK with that. As long as it does not include fox, Bogs, Jackson or Buddy. I hope we see something before the trade deadline

I know I have not said much above but I hope we swing a deal for a top 10 pick or a good starter for our front court.
I would love to pair WCS with another solid big man and then get a Bagley or Ayton in the draft we could have a really good team.
Something along those lines just may put us in a better light to pick up the missing free agent we would need to fill out a very good rotation.
Vince, KK, Zboe need to go before next year.

 

[upinsmoke]

I do not like to lose but I like our direction. Since before we traded Cousins our backcourt was a sorry state and now after less a few months we are looking at a pretty darn good backcourt for the future.
Hopefully we can pickup a key piece for our front court as long as we stay in the bottom where we need to be.

Should we trade away some of our youth without mentioning them yeah I’m OK with that. As long as it does not include fox, Bogs, Jackson or Buddy. I hope we see something before the trade deadline

I know I have not said much above but I hope we swing a deal for a top 10 pick or a good starter for our front court.
I would love to pair WCS with another solid big man and then get a Bagley or Ayton in the draft we could have a really good team.
Something along those lines just may put us in a better light to pick up the missing free agent we would need to fill out a very good rotation.
Vince, KK, Zboe need to go before next year.

If Temple and Koufos opt in we're going to have a real hard time finding empty roster spots. We need a 2 for 1 trade or we're going to have to decide to waive someone.

 

[VF21]

Okay, before we wander off into another trade thread, I'm going get back on track with a couple of observations:

1. Fox has HEART. You can see it every time he steps on the court. He loves the game and he loves to challenge himself.
2. Fox has HUSTLE. I don't think we need to define this any further. The kid plays at top speed and pushes not only himself but his teammates.
3. Fox has ENERGY. He's 20.
4. Fox has EFFORT. He continually pushes himself to improve, to get better, to hone his skills.

What I'm saying is as high as my expectations were of him already, I should/could have set the bar even higher. I cannot watch a Kings game when he's on the court without smiling.

 

[VF21]

And the list continues to grow.

 

[hrdboild]

Okay, before we wander off into another trade thread, I'm going get back on track with a couple of observations:

1. Fox has HEART. You can see it every time he steps on the court. He loves the game and he loves to challenge himself.
2. Fox has HUSTLE. I don't think we need to define this any further. The kid plays at top speed and pushes not only himself but his teammates.
3. Fox has ENERGY. He's 20.
4. Fox has EFFORT. He continually pushes himself to improve, to get better, to hone his skills.

What I'm saying is as high as my expectations were of him already, I should/could have set the bar even higher. I cannot watch a Kings game when he's on the court without smiling.

I'm so glad we finally had some lottery luck! Fox was the perfect player for us to start our new identity new, whatever that ends up being.

 

[One and Done]

Fox is performing as I expected going into the draft:
Pros: a speedy, athletic combo guard with a great motor and seemingly good intangibles.
Cons: limited jumpshot, decent-but-not-great passer (<2.5 A/TO ratio), skinny frame will cause finishing/defensive/rebounding/health issues until he gains weight.

I was *hoping* for a little more magic that you expect from a top-five pick... and we see some flashes of that (transition game, tip in dunks, game winning shots), but I wanted to see a stronger AST % (currently in the bottom third of all PGs) and steal rate (near the bottom third) out of him this year. But, that will have to come in time. The shot is bad, again, he's in the bottom third, and only an average finisher at the rim.

If he does not gain 15 pounds of strength in the offseason and improve his jumpshot and passing, he will have problems and I'll be more worried. But so far, it's great to say we don't have a total bust on our hands. He's playing like a backup right now, but there's flashes that say potential starter if he improves and adds weight.

 

[Kingster]

If you want to see why Fox could be very special, just look how much space he gets from his defender(s) when he takes a shot. Due to both his speed and quickness he can get whatever shot he wants on the floor. The deficiency at this point is in making the very good open look, not getting a very good shot. And I'm not talking about the space he might get by his defender possibly daring him to shoot a 3 pointer. I'm talking about whatever shooting distance you might come up with. He gets so much space on many open 15 footers you could probably count 1001, 1002, 1003 before the defender can get to him. By 1001 the defender is still back up or trying to regain balance, at 1002 he's starting to move forward, and then at 1003 he's now finally guarding Fox. Then compare the space Fox gets when he takes a shot and say Bogs or Buddy. It's not even close. If those guys had the space Fox gets they'd be in the All Star game. And that's where Fox could be once he gets those fairly simple shots down pat.

 

[ParniValjak]

If you want to see why Fox could be very special, just look how much space he gets from his defender(s) when he takes a shot. Due to both his speed and quickness he can get whatever shot he wants on the floor. The deficiency at this point is in making the very good open look, not getting a very good shot. And I'm not talking about the space he might get by his defender possibly daring him to shoot a 3 pointer. I'm talking about whatever shooting distance you might come up with. He gets so much space on many open 15 footers you could probably count 1001, 1002, 1003 before the defender can get to him. By 1001 the defender is still back up or trying to regain balance, at 1002 he's starting to move forward, and then at 1003 he's now finally guarding Fox. Then compare the space Fox gets when he takes a shot and say Bogs or Buddy. It's not even close. If those guys had the space Fox gets they'd be in the All Star game. And that's where Fox could be once he gets those fairly simple shots down pat.

Could not agree more!

One of the reasons why I would also like to see us pair him with an offensive big that can play both inside and outside. I think that in time, Fox and Ayton combo could be deadly. Who do you was to be destroyed by tonight?