DeAaron Fox - meeting expectations?
- Thread starter VF21
- Start date
Fox is coming along!
Honestly, I wasn't expecting him to be great or terrible this year. He was pretty disappointing for awhile, but lately he's been having some pretty good games. About all you can ask from a young, scrawny kid who is barely gaining confidence in his shot.
I think he'll give us some more good games this year, and really come on strong next season! As others have mentioned, his shot mechanics are fine, he just needs to put in the reps. He's a smart kid, and the drive is there.
He's gonna be a fun one to watch.
Honestly, I wasn't expecting him to be great or terrible this year. He was pretty disappointing for awhile, but lately he's been having some pretty good games. About all you can ask from a young, scrawny kid who is barely gaining confidence in his shot.
I think he'll give us some more good games this year, and really come on strong next season! As others have mentioned, his shot mechanics are fine, he just needs to put in the reps. He's a smart kid, and the drive is there.
He's gonna be a fun one to watch.
I'm not seeing the correlation in Fox having low assists and high potential assists. He looks to be the same as nearly everyone else. He's 50th in potential assists and 48th in assists.
His assist numbers are low because of the stupid high post offense being ran most of the time. It takes the ball out of the guards hands and places it in the hands of the big men. None of which are better passers than Fox, Bogie, Hill or Mason. Many of the time the big men can't find anyone so now it's up to the guards to just figure something out on the fly with less than 10 on the clock. It happens all game. Pay attention the next time they get down the floor and get in a high post offense and you'll never be able to unsee it again.
His assist numbers are low because of the stupid high post offense being ran most of the time. It takes the ball out of the guards hands and places it in the hands of the big men. None of which are better passers than Fox, Bogie, Hill or Mason. Many of the time the big men can't find anyone so now it's up to the guards to just figure something out on the fly with less than 10 on the clock. It happens all game. Pay attention the next time they get down the floor and get in a high post offense and you'll never be able to unsee it again.
EXACTLY. It has nothing to do with how fast the ball gets in to the front court but more to do with where it goes once it does get there.
I made the point about Fox getting in deep to sag the D and open up the wings for shooters to get open shots for a reason. Because that is more effective and a higher percentage of looks are garnered that way.
And VF for the life of me I can't fathom why it would irk you when players let the ball roll up the court. That just seems like such a random thing to dislike lol.
I made the point about Fox getting in deep to sag the D and open up the wings for shooters to get open shots for a reason. Because that is more effective and a higher percentage of looks are garnered that way.
And VF for the life of me I can't fathom why it would irk you when players let the ball roll up the court. That just seems like such a random thing to dislike lol.
I'll say. Just look at the hype surrounding Lonzo Bust . That guy is a joke. Fans and "draft gurus" labeled this guy the Second Coming now they are retreating into their
The Lakers are more fun and entertaining without him. And fans around these parts wanted to combined the #5 and the #10 to get #2. That would have been 10X worse than the Boogie trade!
You know else is NOT impressive: Dennis Smith Jr. I will keep getting this drum because I have already beat up Lonzo pretty good
Here's the problem with Dennis Smith Jr a 6'0" SG who pales in potential to the superstar potential of De'Aaron Fox.
He has little room for error because his height. He's not 6'3". He's 6'0". He has to be precise with his shooting and passing because he's not going to get to space as easily due to his height and length limitations. His athleticism helps but he has to be polished. It can be done. Isaiah did it. But it is a rare feat.
Isaiah does not have a lot of room for error at 5'9". And we have seen that with his hip injury. He's not the same explosive player.
The other thing you will notice you notice about DSJ is he stands around a lot: NOT impressive! His off the ball activity is lazy. He pounds the ball too and has trouble finishing off one leg. I am impressed with his poise for his age. He has a lot of poise, but there's NO reason to regret passing on him over Fox.
In fact, I will go a step further and say Frank Ntlinkina can turn into a better player than DSJ. He has been impressive in stints. The only issue I am still not sold on with Frank is his burst. But Frank can be very good and I understand why the Zen Master took him over DSJ.
The development of De'Aaron lately is correlated to his increase in reps and playing time. When the Jazz decided they had a player with star potential, they let him play through his struggles to start the season. The Kings reigned Fox in after the first couple of weeks and his usage plummeted.
I think Donovan Mitchell getting those reps not looking over his shoulder expedited his growth. It can work the other way too if you don't have the confidence or talent (see Ben McLemore) but if the stardom is there then the experience accelerates the learning and productivity curve.
In Donovan Mitchell's first 7 games he shot a woeful 33% overall and 29% from deep. Instead of cutting his minutes and touches, a la the Joerger Way, the Jazz kept going to him. His minutes increased by 10 MPG in the second month of the season and this is when he took off.
I see a similar trajectory for De'Aaron now. It will be helpful if Z-Bud is given more nights off so the lane opens up more and the natural tendency, or should I say the coach-mandated obligation, to defer to him is removed.
The Lakers are more fun and entertaining without him. And fans around these parts wanted to combined the #5 and the #10 to get #2. That would have been 10X worse than the Boogie trade!
You know else is NOT impressive: Dennis Smith Jr. I will keep getting this drum because I have already beat up Lonzo pretty good
Here's the problem with Dennis Smith Jr a 6'0" SG who pales in potential to the superstar potential of De'Aaron Fox.
He has little room for error because his height. He's not 6'3". He's 6'0". He has to be precise with his shooting and passing because he's not going to get to space as easily due to his height and length limitations. His athleticism helps but he has to be polished. It can be done. Isaiah did it. But it is a rare feat.
Isaiah does not have a lot of room for error at 5'9". And we have seen that with his hip injury. He's not the same explosive player.
The other thing you will notice you notice about DSJ is he stands around a lot: NOT impressive! His off the ball activity is lazy. He pounds the ball too and has trouble finishing off one leg. I am impressed with his poise for his age. He has a lot of poise, but there's NO reason to regret passing on him over Fox.
In fact, I will go a step further and say Frank Ntlinkina can turn into a better player than DSJ. He has been impressive in stints. The only issue I am still not sold on with Frank is his burst. But Frank can be very good and I understand why the Zen Master took him over DSJ.
The development of De'Aaron lately is correlated to his increase in reps and playing time. When the Jazz decided they had a player with star potential, they let him play through his struggles to start the season. The Kings reigned Fox in after the first couple of weeks and his usage plummeted.
I think Donovan Mitchell getting those reps not looking over his shoulder expedited his growth. It can work the other way too if you don't have the confidence or talent (see Ben McLemore) but if the stardom is there then the experience accelerates the learning and productivity curve.
In Donovan Mitchell's first 7 games he shot a woeful 33% overall and 29% from deep. Instead of cutting his minutes and touches, a la the Joerger Way, the Jazz kept going to him. His minutes increased by 10 MPG in the second month of the season and this is when he took off.
I see a similar trajectory for De'Aaron now. It will be helpful if Z-Bud is given more nights off so the lane opens up more and the natural tendency, or should I say the coach-mandated obligation, to defer to him is removed.
Yep and it's not just ZBo. I roll my eyes anytime WCS, Skal or Koufos receive the ball at the high post because it has such a high failure rate. Especially with Koufos. When was the last time Koufos dropped a dime from the high post? That's not the fault of Kosta. He's not Marc Gasol or Blake Griffin. It's not his game.
The good thing is that it seems like they're slowly moving away from running the high post all game. Remember the first couple weeks of the season? WCS was clanking them off the rim about 6 or 7 times a game from the high post. Now they're using WCS more as a lob target. The only guy they haven't changed the offense around for has been ZBo. I hate watching him run a pick and roll with Fox. As big as ZBo is, instead of actually setting screens, he just turns sideways and lets the defenders run by him so he can slip back and shoot a deep shot. It's how Fox gets some of his assists but it does nothing to develop his game and to me that's more important than a made shot right now.
The good thing is that it seems like they're slowly moving away from running the high post all game. Remember the first couple weeks of the season? WCS was clanking them off the rim about 6 or 7 times a game from the high post. Now they're using WCS more as a lob target. The only guy they haven't changed the offense around for has been ZBo. I hate watching him run a pick and roll with Fox. As big as ZBo is, instead of actually setting screens, he just turns sideways and lets the defenders run by him so he can slip back and shoot a deep shot. It's how Fox gets some of his assists but it does nothing to develop his game and to me that's more important than a made shot right now.
One of my favorite defensive schemes has always been the full court press. I mourn its loss. (When opponents do it.) When the Kings do it, I think it reduces the efficiency of the point guard. Instead of keeping his eyes up, assessing the court and looking for weakness, he has to look down and focus on picking up the ball. I could be wrong...no accounting for why things drive people nuts.
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Have you seen today's injury report? Z-Bo is gonna see major play. I don't dislike him as much as some of you, but I certainly am not excited over watching him for extended minutes. With Skal and WCS both out, however, it seems inevitable. And, as far as DeFox goes, that's 2 less targets for him to use in running his offense. With either of them, Fox might get the ball back. With Z? Yeah, not so much.
I like ZBo as a guy (he was way cool with my buddy who wanted an autograph) and as a player, but man..... it is just becoming so much more clear to me every day how TERRIBLE it is for an offense when one guy holds the ball in one spot for a long time. It’s like giving the defense a smoke break - I can’t stand it.
I saw/heard a little story recently where a coach set a pylon several yards away and made the player try to to run to the pylon faster than the coach could throw the ball to it. That little anecdote is so illustrative... the good teams swing that ball around until the defense gets hopelessly lost and there is a 3 or a layup.
Running people cannot keep up with balls being passed. It’s impossible.
You can’t have some big dope standing there bouncing the ball at the elbow. It’s idiotic. It can’t win today’s NBA.
Love ZBo but ..... when he is playing we’re doing it wrong.
I saw/heard a little story recently where a coach set a pylon several yards away and made the player try to to run to the pylon faster than the coach could throw the ball to it. That little anecdote is so illustrative... the good teams swing that ball around until the defense gets hopelessly lost and there is a 3 or a layup.
Running people cannot keep up with balls being passed. It’s impossible.
You can’t have some big dope standing there bouncing the ball at the elbow. It’s idiotic. It can’t win today’s NBA.
Love ZBo but ..... when he is playing we’re doing it wrong.
One of my favorite defensive schemes has always been the full court press. I mourn its loss. (When opponents do it.) When the Kings do it, I think it reduces the efficiency of the point guard. Instead of keeping his eyes up, assessing the court and looking for weakness, he has to look down and focus on picking up the ball. I could be wrong...no accounting for why things drive people nuts.
I'm also one. I said sometimes because I don't like when he brings the ball down the court and gives it up and goes and hides in the corner. It limits his effectiveness and what he does best. He NEEDS the ball to be effective in order for him and the team to get where they want to go. In a way, it is very similar to how Tyreke was used the last year or 2 that he was here before the Pels (I think they were the Hornets at the time) trade.
Fox is a scoring PG who needs the rock to make plays and if he doesn't do this then he is not meeting my expectations. It' not a matter of him NOT being able to do these things. He is highly capable. He just....isnt doing it as much as I would like to see him do it. So. Sometimes.
Fox is a scoring PG who needs the rock to make plays and if he doesn't do this then he is not meeting my expectations. It' not a matter of him NOT being able to do these things. He is highly capable. He just....isnt doing it as much as I would like to see him do it. So. Sometimes.
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I voted 'sometimes' as well.
Fox has been last in the last nearly all season in RPM. He just finally climbed a few spots higher lately. I'm curious to see where he finishes the year.
Anyway I looked back over the last 5 years or however long they've been keeping track of the stat and it doesn't look good for the guys at the bottom. Dennis Schroder is the only semi successful PG that I've seen down as low as Fox. Doesn't mean anything is a foregone conclusion but it's not a good sign to me.
Fox has been last in the last nearly all season in RPM. He just finally climbed a few spots higher lately. I'm curious to see where he finishes the year.
Anyway I looked back over the last 5 years or however long they've been keeping track of the stat and it doesn't look good for the guys at the bottom. Dennis Schroder is the only semi successful PG that I've seen down as low as Fox. Doesn't mean anything is a foregone conclusion but it's not a good sign to me.
Fox played great on this six game road trip the Kings just completed. How he is playing now is what is important. I find it interesting how many find fault with having ZBO being there to take the pressure off of the young fella. Having a veteran of 16 NBA seasons to pass the ball to took/takes a lot of pressure off of Fox in the early games of his rookie season. Why is that so bad???
I also wonder how much ZBO standing up to DMC during the "bullies get bullied" Pels game is swaying judgement here?
I also wonder how much ZBO standing up to DMC during the "bullies get bullied" Pels game is swaying judgement here?
First of all, I think it is unfair to call any player (especially a PG or C) a bust or a success before year 3. So often player show lots of promise that never materializes or struggle initially and then learn the league, that year 1 and year 3 are complete reversals.
But I'm curious who "around these parts" wanted to package the #5 and #10 for Ball. My read was that most posters here seemed delighted that he would go to the Lakers and couldn't wait to proclaim him a bust.
But I'm curious who "around these parts" wanted to package the #5 and #10 for Ball. My read was that most posters here seemed delighted that he would go to the Lakers and couldn't wait to proclaim him a bust.
Eh, I wouldnt even begin to look at that metric in regards to Fox. There are still 2.5 months left in the season and it' obvious he is getting it together. A bit premature on your part.
Anyway, I would be willing to bet a lot of it has to do with his lack of understanding of the position at the NBA level added to the fact the offense was woeful when he became the lead guard due to his lack of confidence in his shot coupled with his obvious reticence to take over and be himself. That ain't a problem anymore.
Anyway, I would be willing to bet a lot of it has to do with his lack of understanding of the position at the NBA level added to the fact the offense was woeful when he became the lead guard due to his lack of confidence in his shot coupled with his obvious reticence to take over and be himself. That ain't a problem anymore.
What is fair and unfair about projecting how good or not good you think a player can be based on early returns? Why is that unfair? It's just an inexact science that may prove to be prescient or not. Nothing is 100% certainty but probabilities lean disproportionately when you look for obvious and not-obvious cues.
Rookies tend to establish floors and ceilings sooner than later and provide fairly accurate glimpse of what they can be. All you have to do is look at most players stats year to year and see fairly linear growth relative to efficiency and production. There has to be a baseline efficiency for starters to justify future playing time then you go from there.
Dramatic jumps, say 4 PPG to 15 PPG are possible but more exception than the rule. What can be misleading is players who are given a lot of playing time because of circumstances and produce on bad teams. This doesn't last indefinitely. Raw production can conceal mediocre efficiency that eventually changes their role and perceived value.
This was the case with Tyreke and Michael Carter Williams to a degree two former ROYs. When Tyreke posted 20/5/5 it was with help of high usage and teammates who stood and watched him go 1-2 and 1-3 to mixed results. The questions about true position and ability to get around picks and defend and make teammates better were there from rookie season and persisted most of his career.
I didn't need a sophomore season from Jahlil Okafor to conclude the guy was an apathetic personality and defensive slug and one dimensional scorer and blunder by Mr . Trust the Process when Porzingis was there for the taking.
The Nuggets had high hopes for Emmanuel Mudiay. He was going to be their "franchise point guard". And he struggled terribly as a rookie. There were red flags all over his rookie season . He could not turn the corner on his man. He had impressive size but he lacked the juke moves to create separation and the outside shot to set up the drive to the rim.
You could take the perspective to wait until next year (third years) before considering a success or failure if you want to be ultra-conservative. But I don't need to wait to project what is most likely to be. Okafor and Mudiay may become serviceable back-ups but is either going to transform into a perennial All-Star as originally forecast in best case scenario? Highly unlikely and this was forecastable based on their respective rookie year.
You can always point to exceptions of under the radar players who emerged. But even a guy like Giannis who put up modest numbers as a rookie was envisioned as a future terror based on glimpses he provided as a rookie. I could go on an on. We knew Isaiah could play from Day One. I said 2 weeks into him taking over as starter that Isaiah was a player with no weakness. I said early on the ONLY thing keeping Boogie from perennial all-star status was physical conditioning.
By contrast where were the glimpses from guys like Ben, Stauskas and Jimmer? When you have to squint hard to see competency thats not's not a good sign. You have to squint hard to see Malachi carving out a niche. The glimpses have been too few and too far between. Their careers played out accordingly. Again, I am just telling you the cues are there. To say you cannot formulate a reasonable opinion through half of one year is unfounded.
Dennis Smith Jr is a guy NOT having a good rookie season . I am not going to get into the details why but I will tell you the Mavericks are likely disappointed with him internally. They were comparing him to the Allen Iverson or Steve Francis. No chance. He's not the creative scorer or relentless competitor.
By contrast the Kings front office has to be thrilled with development of De'Aaron. And if the Lakers could go back into a time machine and do the draft again they would take Fox or Donovan over Bust in a heartbeat. They'd be closer to .500 team with Fox. They'd take Fox or Donovan and be thankful to never bear witness to Lonzo Bust's hideous jumper again.
Similarly if Vlade had to do it again, he would take Kouzma over Justin Jackson in a heartbeat too. He doesn't need three years to know now what is obvious as the nose on his face. Kouzma is better today and will be better three years from today. His mentality as an alpha dog and ability as versatile face-up scorer is not going to go away. Whereas the role playing spot shooting mindset and skillset of Justin Jackson is not going suddenly transform over one summer.
I will concede anything is possible. But incremental progress from Day One is the normal occurrence not radical transformation from bottom feeder to superstar.
Rookies tend to establish floors and ceilings sooner than later and provide fairly accurate glimpse of what they can be. All you have to do is look at most players stats year to year and see fairly linear growth relative to efficiency and production. There has to be a baseline efficiency for starters to justify future playing time then you go from there.
Dramatic jumps, say 4 PPG to 15 PPG are possible but more exception than the rule. What can be misleading is players who are given a lot of playing time because of circumstances and produce on bad teams. This doesn't last indefinitely. Raw production can conceal mediocre efficiency that eventually changes their role and perceived value.
This was the case with Tyreke and Michael Carter Williams to a degree two former ROYs. When Tyreke posted 20/5/5 it was with help of high usage and teammates who stood and watched him go 1-2 and 1-3 to mixed results. The questions about true position and ability to get around picks and defend and make teammates better were there from rookie season and persisted most of his career.
I didn't need a sophomore season from Jahlil Okafor to conclude the guy was an apathetic personality and defensive slug and one dimensional scorer and blunder by Mr . Trust the Process when Porzingis was there for the taking.
The Nuggets had high hopes for Emmanuel Mudiay. He was going to be their "franchise point guard". And he struggled terribly as a rookie. There were red flags all over his rookie season . He could not turn the corner on his man. He had impressive size but he lacked the juke moves to create separation and the outside shot to set up the drive to the rim.
You could take the perspective to wait until next year (third years) before considering a success or failure if you want to be ultra-conservative. But I don't need to wait to project what is most likely to be. Okafor and Mudiay may become serviceable back-ups but is either going to transform into a perennial All-Star as originally forecast in best case scenario? Highly unlikely and this was forecastable based on their respective rookie year.
You can always point to exceptions of under the radar players who emerged. But even a guy like Giannis who put up modest numbers as a rookie was envisioned as a future terror based on glimpses he provided as a rookie. I could go on an on. We knew Isaiah could play from Day One. I said 2 weeks into him taking over as starter that Isaiah was a player with no weakness. I said early on the ONLY thing keeping Boogie from perennial all-star status was physical conditioning.
By contrast where were the glimpses from guys like Ben, Stauskas and Jimmer? When you have to squint hard to see competency thats not's not a good sign. You have to squint hard to see Malachi carving out a niche. The glimpses have been too few and too far between. Their careers played out accordingly. Again, I am just telling you the cues are there. To say you cannot formulate a reasonable opinion through half of one year is unfounded.
Dennis Smith Jr is a guy NOT having a good rookie season . I am not going to get into the details why but I will tell you the Mavericks are likely disappointed with him internally. They were comparing him to the Allen Iverson or Steve Francis. No chance. He's not the creative scorer or relentless competitor.
By contrast the Kings front office has to be thrilled with development of De'Aaron. And if the Lakers could go back into a time machine and do the draft again they would take Fox or Donovan over Bust in a heartbeat. They'd be closer to .500 team with Fox. They'd take Fox or Donovan and be thankful to never bear witness to Lonzo Bust's hideous jumper again.
Similarly if Vlade had to do it again, he would take Kouzma over Justin Jackson in a heartbeat too. He doesn't need three years to know now what is obvious as the nose on his face. Kouzma is better today and will be better three years from today. His mentality as an alpha dog and ability as versatile face-up scorer is not going to go away. Whereas the role playing spot shooting mindset and skillset of Justin Jackson is not going suddenly transform over one summer.
I will concede anything is possible. But incremental progress from Day One is the normal occurrence not radical transformation from bottom feeder to superstar.
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