DeAaron Fox - meeting expectations?

[sactowndog]

It's tough to get assists when your teammate doesn't hit the shot.

That’s fair but doesn’t explain all the other data points.

 

[bajaden]

The truth is that most of the population is poor at judging point guards in basketball and quarterbacks in football.

He's been good. His only down stretch was his move to the starting line-up where he deferred to the vets... who couldn't match his speed. The league can't match his speed, but his teamamtes need to run when he pushes. The defense collapses hard and he'd have kick-outs for threes when guys run with him.

This is/was my view of him:

-Better passer than I expected. He looks to setup most of the time
-Faster than NBA guys. His speed advantage did not fall off in making the transition.
-Mature, doesn't get frustrated.

-Needs to learn how to set up his defender a bit better. Can't rely purely on speed. Needs a tiny bit of shiftiness.
-Needs some more finishing moves and to improve his % on his floater.
-Mostly a study film thing.

-3pt shooting is improving faster than expected. First month was in the 20s, second month he shot 30% range, and this month he's at 40% range.
-

Goal: Add strength and film sessions.

Most importantly: Setup your offense around his abilities. We wasted a month or two playing an offense built around vets halfway out the door. I will never understand that or the fools that couldn't understand the problem ir presented. Fox doesn't progress being a fourth option in a half court grind. That's not how you develop him.

I would add that he needs to get stronger, which will help with his finishing at the basket. I think he's right on track. People that live from game to game one way or the other need to take a deep breath, and realize that this is a process. You've got a kid one year removed from playing in highschool making the transition to the NBA playing against grown men with years of experience. Personally, I think he's ahead of schedule. Next game, take the time to count how many shots are missed by his teammates that should have/could have been assists. All Fox can control is the set up, and the pass. He can't make the damm shot for them.

 

[bajaden]

Okay my comments were probably what VF was referring to. To me his speed is world class and probably better than I expected. His shooting is improving and I think will continue to get better.

My issue is his passing or rather his tendency to not pass and force the shot. I had hoped he would be more point guard centric and had more focus on using his speed to break down the defense and kick the ball back out. I think his teammates are running with him but Fox is more focused on scoring then getting teammates involved. I expected him to be more of a true point guard.

When you’re the starting point guard, you played 33 minutes and you only have 3 assists that’s a problem. When of the top point guards in your rookie class Simmons, Ball, Ntilikina, Smith all average more assists per 36 min than you that’s a problem. When you are a starting point and you’re 59th in per 36 assists that’s a problem. When your team is 2nd in 3 point percentage and 28th in attempts that’s a problem.

Fox looking for his own shot as much as he does did not meet my expectations.

Actually, I don't see what you see. I see him looking to set up his teammates first. He looked for his shot last night a little more, but he felt hot, so I get that. He's averaging 4.2 assists, and Dennis Smith is averaging 4.7 assists. Wow, big difference there. We all see what were looking for!

 

[ESP47]

I've been disappointed in Fox's play but I've been more disappointed in the way he's been used.

Fox is dead last in the NBA in many advanced stat categories. I didn't expect him to come out and be good but I didn't expect him to be one of the worst players in the NBA either.

He's been very good for a rookie over this last month so I hope it continues. When we talk about "flashes", I don't consider one coast to coast layup in a game as a flash. I consider complete games as flashes. Donte Greene can flash one play a game. I'm looking to see Fox contribute over the course of an entire game and he did that last night. Didn't get the win obviously but he did his part. Hopefully we get a few more games like that out of him this season so he can carry that over to next year.

 

[LPKingsFan]

That’s fair but doesn’t explain all the other data points.

No need for guess work. NBA.com measures "potential assists": https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/?sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1

Would like to see it also control for pace, but can't have everything!

 

[jcassio]

Having watched him at UK for his one season there, I thought he had a lot of potential. The most impressive things being, obviously his speed, but also his intelligence, attitude, and personality.

He didn't shoot well from the outside or even from the foul line as well as you would like for a point guard, but there was nothing about his shot that looked broken or in need of a major over haul. I felt like with a lot of work, lots and lots of repetitions, his shot would improve. Really felt like you would not see a lot of improvement there until he had a full off season to just work and work on that shot.

I was a little disappointed at first in his ability to manage a game early in the season, but he has started to show a lot of improvement there since sitting out a few games with an injury. I think he is trending on an upward path, but expect some bumps in the road.

He is a one-and-done rookie and there are a lot of adjustments to be made to play in the NBA. As he makes adjustments, opponents will make adjustments. NBA teams do an excellent job of scouting. It seems like a lot of people don't realize that. When a young player starts to get it and takes a step forward in his game, other teams take note and adjust to it. That is one reason for inconsistent play, it's a constant battle of adjustments. I cannot believe the number of fans that want to give up on a player as soon as he goes through a bad stretch.

If he can develop a consistent outside shot in the next couple of years, then he will be an all-star type player.

Excellent post. While a little hype right now may be a good thing, I also think it's important for us to expect some bumps in the road ahead as those many adjustments are made. But if he can maintain a 40% 3-pt % for the rest of the season, he'll be better able to drive to the basket which will have good results (more assists, more free throws, more kick-outs for open 3's, etc). It's exciting to see him turn the corner on his rookie season. But it's also bewildering how many posters think they know what kind of PG he'll be in the NBA from one year of college play. The story hasn't been written yet! Only the first chapter!

 

[Kingster]

Fox isn't meeting my expectations. He's better than my expectations. I didn't think it would be possible to see in his rookie year him hitting six consecutive three point shots. His defense is as good as I thought. His court sense is about what I thought. I really like the kid because not only is his athleticism exceptional, but he's extremely smart, which is very important in your point guard. Those smarts will enable him to progress faster in all aspects of the game than with one of average intelligence. As long as he stays healthy, the future looks very bright with Fox.

 

[ppine]

His growing confidence is evident. That is the hardest part for one and done teenagers playing against full grown men.
Fox will get stronger, but is less of an issue for point guards than for other positions on the floor.

 

[Sac.1989]

swipe at the fox !

very happy with our PG additions. Mason and Fox are our future at the 1

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

Elite Athleticism - Check. Elite Speed - Check. Has shown solid defensive instincts - Check. High BBIQ - Check. Has shown the ability to knock down the 3 - Check. Everything I was hoping to see from Fox this season, he has shown. I'm stoked to see this kid develop in the next few years. I think his ceiling could be a combination of Tony Parker and a healthy Mike Conley.

 

[ockingsfan]

After a good October, D'Arron had a shaky November and December and then has been very good in January, since coming back from injury.

The PG position is the hardest position to learn in the NBA and his trajectory is on point right now.

If he can close out the rest of the season, like he is playing since he returned from injury, he will be good to go next year.

I expect a big step forward next season, after he works on his jumper and adds a little more weight and strength in the off season.

 

[notoriousBEN3]

As someone who hasn't gotten to watch a lot of games, my question is this - has he been starting to understand how to use his speed more since he's been back from injury? I know speed was probably his most highly touted skill coming into the draft, but I haven't seen to much of it in the limited amount of games I've been able to see.

 

[sactowndog]

This is an odd problem for Fox. Sometimes he gets tunnel vision and won't pass. Other times he'll have a wide open shot, and he'll pass. I think it all comes with building his confidence and continually learning the game.

In regards to his PG skills, I think a lot of Kings fans were misled when people heard the John Wall comparisons. Wall is the 2nd best playmaker in the NBA. He's a pass-first PG who can easily get 10asts a night. Fox is more of a score-first PG. He has a scorers mentality. However, one of his problems has been operating a half-court offense. He doesn't do that good of a job setting up teammates. But he has never been "good" at creating for his teammates. If I had to compare his playmaking to a recent King, I would say it's on par to Darren Collison. Anyone expecting Rondo or Wall playmaking will be extremely disappointed. He's just not that type of a PG.

Sure the misperception could be on my part but the question was is Fox meeting your expectations. For me I expected a average or above average distributor who had to work on his shot.

He currently is below average at setting up teammates. I expected that from Smith and Mitchell, I did not expect it from Fox.

 

[Joshoua]

https://twitter.com/mikegrib8/status/957859649587331072

Interesting

 

[ESP47]

As someone who hasn't gotten to watch a lot of games, my question is this - has he been starting to understand how to use his speed more since he's been back from injury? I know speed was probably his most highly touted skill coming into the draft, but I haven't seen to much of it in the limited amount of games I've been able to see.

He uses it in the open court when the situation presents itself but he has yet to be able to use it consistently in the half court. Part of that are the plays that are ran because they aren't ran to get Fox an open take to the basket. The other part is because he doesn't have any real go to moves off the bounce to get defenders off balance. He's kind of just a straight line kind of guy right now and that's not enough in the NBA. Especially when nearly every defender he faces is stronger than him.

 

[dude12]

I can say that I feel confidant in Fox, in 3 years or so, being at least at a level of Conley, Teague, Tony Parker, etc. maybe he becomes more but we are in good shape at the PG spot. Check that box off.

 

[hrdboild]

I liked Mike Conley a lot coming out of Ohio State whatever year that was but I always saw him as a game manager, not a guy who can take over a game. It was 7 years before he put up the kind of scoring numbers to warrant even borderline All-Star consideration. I see De'Aaron Fox as a guy who could get to that level (17-18 ppg) as early as next year. I don't really have a good comparison for him but I think he'll play in multiple All-Star games and be considered one of the best PGs in the league at his peak. He's already got the tools to be a dominant offensive player, it's mostly a matter of building confidence and taking on the responsibility of carrying a team. This isn't a comparison, but a good career goal for him would be Gary Payton. We might not ever see a PG win DPOY again, but that's where Fox really has a chance to separate himself from his peers. Other than John Wall and Chris Paul, can you name a starting PG in the league right now who is notable for their defense? There's a massive void there waiting for him to step into it.

 

[Gliesian]

I've often wondered, doesn't strengthening impair shot accuracy? If you recruit 3 motor units to do work, but then increase the strength of each fiber, thus only requiring 2 motor units to do the same amount of work, it should affect your shot.

 

[kingsboi]

I didn't expect much out of him considering his age and frail body but he has shown flashes and improvement along the season and that's a positive step moving forward for the franchise. He needs to continue to be aggressive on the offensive end and no longer be a spectator out there to the likes of slow-bo, Temple or whoever else who will take shots away from him.

 

[VF21]

...He needs someone we do not have right now, if we get someone like Bagley or if Giles works out we may see a great future for him. We need a big who can shoot the ball and not just around the basket.

I see a bright future for Fox and he has done just fine with his youth and experience.

First, welcome to Kingsfans!

Second, WCS is on line one.

 

[VF21]

No need for guess work. NBA.com measures "potential assists": https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/?sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1

Would like to see it also control for pace, but can't have everything!

Wow. Thanks for the link. I didn't know they tracked "potential assists".

I resorted the list by team and found DeFox does, in fact, lead the Kings with 8.2 potential assists. Not bad IMHO.

 

[ESP47]

I've often wondered, doesn't strengthening impair shot accuracy? If you recruit 3 motor units to do work, but then increase the strength of each fiber, thus only requiring 2 motor units to do the same amount of work, it should affect your shot.

Yeah but I think it's such a gradual process that players adjust for it unknowingly as they go along.

Nearly every player gets bigger and puts on more muscle as they get older and most become better shooters as well.

 

[Gliesian]

Yeah but I think it's such a gradual process that players adjust for it unknowingly as they go along.

Nearly every player gets bigger and puts on more muscle as they get older and most become better shooters as well.

But the best shooters have never been rippling either... hehe

 

[KingsFanSince85]

This is/was my view of him:

-Better passer than I expected. He looks to setup most of the time
-Faster than NBA guys. His speed advantage did not fall off in making the transition.
-Mature, doesn't get frustrated.

-Needs to learn how to set up his defender a bit better. Can't rely purely on speed. Needs a tiny bit of shiftiness.
-Needs some more finishing moves and to improve his % on his floater.
-Mostly a study film thing.

-3pt shooting is improving faster than expected. First month was in the 20s, second month he shot 30% range, and this month he's at 40% range.
-

Goal: Add strength and film sessions.

Most importantly: Setup your offense around his abilities. We wasted a month or two playing an offense built around vets halfway out the door. I will never understand that or the fools that couldn't understand the problem ir presented. Fox doesn't progress being a fourth option in a half court grind. That's not how you develop him.

Fox’s 3 pt percentage went from 30 to 36 percent after going 6-6. He is now 26/75 on the year.

Back when I was lobbying him for the draft, one of the reasons I cited was that I firmly believe he's the type of player that will work hard on his deficiencies. He's smart and hates to lose. Remember the disappointment and emotions he showed when UK lost to UNC in the tourney??

Anyway, his shot/form was good enough that I felt really confident that it wouldn't be a problem long term and he'd greatly improve once in the NBA where he could work on it every day. I think we're seeing glimpses of that now.

The other reason I liked him so much coming out of college is his potential on the defensive end. I think we've seen glimpses of that recently too.

Yes, he needs to get stronger. Yes, he needs to fill out. He will. He's barely 20.

In summary, I like players with work ethic and that hate to lose. His work ethic may not be Kobe like, but give him time. I think he'll be one to get there.

Prior to the draft, I made the bold statement that I'd take De'Aaron Fox with the 1st pick. I'm sticking to my belief that he'll end up as the best PG out of this draft.

 

[BeerNerd916]

Back when I was lobbying him for the draft, one of the reasons I cited was that I firmly believe he's the type of player that will work hard on his deficiencies. He's smart and hates to lose. Remember the disappointment and emotions he showed when UK lost to UNC in the tourney??

Anyway, his shot/form was good enough that I felt really confident that it wouldn't be a problem long term and he'd greatly improve once in the NBA where he could work on it every day. I think we're seeing glimpses of that now.

The other reason I liked him so much coming out of college is his potential on the defensive end. I think we've seen glimpses of that recently too.

Yes, he needs to get stronger. Yes, he needs to fill out. He will. He's barely 20.

In summary, I like players with work ethic and that hate to lose. His work ethic may not be Kobe like, but give him time. I think he'll be one to get there.

Prior to the draft, I made the bold statement that I'd take De'Aaron Fox with the 1st pick. I'm sticking to my belief that he'll end up as the best PG out of this draft.

Kobe didn' have that Kobe work ethic in his first season to be fair...

 

[BeerNerd916]

He uses it in the open court when the situation presents itself but he has yet to be able to use it consistently in the half court. Part of that are the plays that are ran because they aren't ran to get Fox an open take to the basket. The other part is because he doesn't have any real go to moves off the bounce to get defenders off balance. He's kind of just a straight line kind of guy right now and that's not enough in the NBA. Especially when nearly every defender he faces is stronger than him.

I actually have noticed in the last couple few games that Fox has been doing a better job of initiating the offense from the lower block than the top of the key. I point this out because as a PG it is crucial to be able to initiate the offense from the low block as well as the top of the ley. By initiating the offense from the low block he has caused the defense to collapse which opens the floor for shooters from the 3pt line. He obviously "gets" it.

When he was inserted into the starting lineup he unfortunately took himself out of being a threat by only initiating from the top, tossing the ball to Z blow or Willie or Kosta Rico. Now that he is getting deeper into the lane and low block you can see how much it opens up the floor. If he can keep his energy up and get his confidence up he could be an unstoppable force on offense, able to get anywhere he wants on the floor and able to get any shot he wants, while also forcing the D to sag off their player and open up our very good wing shooters (Jackson/Hield/Bogie).

 

[sactowndog]

No need for guess work. NBA.com measures "potential assists": https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/?sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1

Would like to see it also control for pace, but can't have everything!

Great stat. Now the question is it a chicken or the egg thing. Meaning does Fox have low assists and high potential assists because he doesn’t get players shots in a good position to score or do they just miss them?

Here are some more interesting stats
Kings Ranks
3PA. More than 6 ft away. 26th
3PA. 4-6 ft away 30th
3PA. 2-4 ft away. 24th
3PA. 0-2 ft away 19th

Shots taken in clock
0-4 seconds. 8th
7-4 seconds. 1st
15-7 seconds. 9th
18-15 seconds 29th
22-18 seconds 22nd
24-22 seconds 16th

So on average Kings shooters take shots later in clock with tighter defenders. Is that bad shooters or their point guard getting them the ball in positions to fail?

 

[VF21]

Great stat. Now the question is it a chicken or the egg thing. Meaning does Fox have low assists and high potential assists because he doesn’t get players shots in a good position to score or do they just miss them?

Here are some more interesting stats
Kings Ranks
3PA. More than 6 ft away. 26th
3PA. 4-6 ft away 30th
3PA. 2-4 ft away. 24th
3PA. 0-2 ft away 19th

Shots taken in clock
0-4 seconds. 8th
7-4 seconds. 1st
15-7 seconds. 9th
18-15 seconds 29th
22-18 seconds 22nd
24-22 seconds 16th

So on average Kings shooters take shots later in clock with tighter defenders. Is that bad shooters or their point guard getting them the ball in positions to fail?

They take shots later in the clock because it freaking takes them FOREVER to get into their offense at times. (That's my eye-ball opinion, for which I have no statistics to substantiate.)

 

[sactowndog]

They take shots later in the clock because it freaking takes them FOREVER to get into their offense at times. (That's my eye-ball opinion, for which I have no statistics to substantiate.)

That’s a fair eyeball opinion but whose fault is that?

 

[VF21]

That’s a fair eyeball opinion but whose fault is that?

Whomever brings the ball up, with the possible exception of Bogs, seems to be equally guilty at times. I don't think we can pin it on Fox, although he does need to utilize his speed IMHO to get over the line asap. (Aside to that - I hate having them let the ball roll up the stupid freaking court. I think the clock should start the nano-second it crosses the backline.)