By the numbers

[Entity]

I was in my truck for about 45 min earlier tonight headed back from some last minute Christmas shopping and I was thinking. How do we fair against teams over .500 and against teams under .500. So here it is.

4-11 against teams over .500 roughly 30% (slightly higher)
7-3 against teams under .500 70% exaclty

now not counting us 13 teams are under .500 right now. How many games do we have agianst those teams you ask. Well that number is 23 so at 70% we could see (for sake of a whole number) 16 wins.

That would leave us with 34 games against teams over .500 which at slightly over 30% would put us at around 12 wins.

Putting us at the 39 win mark. Now that is better than last year of course but here is something else to think about. Of the 15 games we have played against teams over .500 10 of them have been against the top 10 teams in the league not counting Utah or Portland who is doing well right now. that being said that 30% could go up because the teams we play from here on out are not the elite in the league. we play teams such as Atlanta, Golden State, Indiana, Lakers, and Toronto all of which are over .500 but not considered as good as Boston, Dallas, San Antonio (twice) Pheonix (twice) Denver Detroit and New Orleans which make up 10 of the 15 over .500 teams we have played.

Lets remember we are without Bibby and Martin and were without Artest and Beno for the first 7 games.

 

[SDKing]

I think we're going to end up around .500 this year, depending on if trades happen or not

 

[AyeCarly]

More numbers...

Avg win total to get the 8th seed in the playoffs (over the last 10 years) is about 44 wins or a 54% win percentage
For us to get the 8th seed based on 44 wins, we need to go 33-24 or 9 games above .500
Thats a winning percentage of about 58% and would take winning roughly 3 out of every 5 games from now on

Sounds like a tall task.

We are improving and are 6-4 in our last 10, which is 60%. So if we stay on the current pace at which we are playing and keep improving more when Kevin and Mike come back in Jan, you never know, (although I feel Mike coming back will affect us negatively the same way Webber did when he came back from injury, i.e. Beno is playing farely well, 9-9 with him starting, and team starting to gel).

The low win total for the 8th seed (over the last 10 yrs) is 41 wins (we would need to go 30-27 which seems doable), so there is a little wiggle room depending on how the competition for the 8th seed fares (Houston - slumping, Utah - slumping, Portland - overachieving).

 

[CruzDude]

SDKing sounds about right, putting the Kings on the "bubble" for making the playoffs. The real key is how the current group does in January and then how they play in the few weeks after the all-star break when both Bibbs and Martin should be back. The bench of Beno, Salmons, Cisco, and to lesser extent Hawes, could be one of the best in the league.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

SDKing sounds about right, putting the Kings on the "bubble" for making the playoffs. The real key is how the current group does in January and then how they play in the few weeks after the all-star break when both Bibbs and Martin should be back. The bench of Beno, Salmons, Cisco, and to lesser extent Hawes, could be one of the best in the league.

Geoff has done an admirable job piling up the diamond-in-the-rough unwanted FAs in Udrih and Dahntay Jones, and as of now the Kings have become a motivation breeding ground for young and/or neglected players who want to prove themselves--Francisco Garcia, John Salmons, the aforementioned Udrih and Jones--and that's helping us win at least in the now. Young motivation works against beating teams such as the Bucks and Sixers, who also have the share of young players themselves. Salmons has broken out of that jack of all trades master of none moniker to now become essentially a full-fledged scorer taking on the role Kevin Martin had before injury. Artest and Miller are quietly getting it done as well. Now with Bibby and Martin eventually coming back, we can potentially have a deep squad--that is, if playing time concerns and chemistry problems don't get in the way.

I think the record has it all right though; 4-11 against the top tier teams, 7-3 against lower rung teams--that shows that we have the talent and the youthful desire to beat young teams, but against tougher teams--just not there. I can't really expect that to change, honestly, with the way this team is structured; the lack of a tough shotblocking enforcer and solid backup PG are still there while our two main guys are injured, and unless Reggie Theus starts coaching a miracle (although he's doing quite well) I can't see us getting to .500.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

I see us still getting 37-39 wins this year, just like I was thinking before the season started.

 

[Mozart]

Nah...

...we'll make the playoffs.


Several members of the Kings team feel that they are a playoff-quality team and I agree with them.


And I say that, not only are they a playoff team, they are a conference-championship-challenging (not the Finals) team as well.


The team is far better now than they were in the first few Artest-free games, so, perhaps, someone ought to crunch some numbers that discounts the first few Artest-free games to better reflect the better quality of a team that was in the throes of learning about each other, as well as a head coach figuring out the best rotations to do, as well as the best combinations of players out there.


I'm not saying that Artest is the primary factor on the success of the team at all--I'm just saying that the team had to spend the first ten games or so learning about each other. Now, with Martin out, the team has had to adjust again, big-time, but most of the team had already started to gell well and play well, so they have been able to adjust sans Martin with better-than-expected results.

.

 

[Entity]

...we'll make the playoffs.


Several members of the Kings team feel that they are a playoff-quality team and I agree with them.


And I say that, not only are they a playoff team, they are a conference-championship-challenging (not the Finals) team as well.


The team is far better now than they were in the first few Artest-free games, so, perhaps, someone ought to crunch some numbers that discounts the first few Artest-free games to better reflect the better quality of a team that was in the throes of learning about each other, as well as a head coach figuring out the best rotations to do, as well as the best combinations of players out there.


I'm not saying that Artest is the primary factor on the success of the team at all--I'm just saying that the team had to spend the first ten games or so learning about each other. Now, with Martin out, the team has had to adjust again, big-time, but most of the team had already started to gell well and play well, so they have been able to adjust sans Martin with better-than-expected results.

.

Without Artest we are 2-6
With Artest and Martin we are 5-4
With Artest and Without Martin we are 4-4

the Without Artest numbers are skewed a bit by being without Beno as well

We were headed in the right direction before Martins injury. As long as Salmons and Garcia continue to play well we may be ok until he gets back. When He and Bibby get back we should be able to spread the floor nicely and be able to execute with the second unit in as it will consist of 2 starters now in Beno and Salmons.

Oh yeah and we have played 12 home games vs. 13 road

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

the Without Artest numbers are skewed a bit by being without Beno as well

Indeed. But, even with Martin, Artest, Beno and the bunch, we're still not a .500 team. Check back in 2 years...

 

[Entity]

Indeed. But, even with Martin, Artest, Beno and the bunch, we're still not a .500 team. Check back in 2 years...

But with them we were 5-4 (over .500)

And we played ALL playoff teams except 2 and lost to one of them. The teams were Min, NYK, Det, Pho, Por, SA, GS, Hou, and Uth. 4 of those teams are considered to be in the top 5 in the west. Por is on a 10 game win streak. We did this while meshing with Artest and Beno then Martin got hurt. So we went 5-2 against teams over .500 with Artest and Martin. So what are you basing you statement on? Just opinion or did we play more games with Martin and Artest that I missed.