Building around a Fox/Sabonis core

[SLAB]

I have the solution.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493344252591550468

 

[funkykingston]

The Pacers can't match a bigger contract offer for Smith if he balls out right? I thought if you declined a the rookie option, you can only re-up for what the valuation of the rookie contract is. So they'd be maxed out around $5mil?

So that'd seem like a pretty incredible dart throw type of deal to make. Bet like 4years/$30 mil that he can pop and you'd have bought out 2 of his RFA years (under normal circumstances) at an incredible value. You could live with that salary if he's a 3rd big back-up, but that seems like a pretty low-risk $ cost to getting a 21 year old that could be a potential long-term fit with Sabonis. I've always liked the player and skill-set, but his biggest crime was he was drafted in front of Hali and Vassell.

The rest of these guys just aren't available I don't think outside of PJ Washington. It's a rare archetype and teams aren't going to let them walk.

Correct. The most the Pacers can offer is the amount that his rookie option would have been, which I believe is around $4.7M.

I was hoping for a Holmes/Washington trade, but I think that ship has sailed after the Montrezl Harrell deal. Very similar players making pretty similar money.

Jabari Smith Jr and maybe Chet Holmgren are two of the only guys in this draft that fit what we're describing as the ideal PF around Sabonis. Jabari isn't a great shotblocker, but he offers some rim protection while being very switchable and active on defense. Holmgren worries me in terms of perimeter defense, but brings everything else we would want to see with Sabonis.

Outside of some real lottery luck, I think you're looking at Keegan Murray (who I'm not as high on as most, but is definitely putting up impressive numbers) and Tari Eason, who (like Jabari Smith Jr) is more of a switchable disrupter than a rim protector, though he provides a bit of weakside shotblocking.

If EJ Liddell were there in the 2nd round he might be worth a gamble. He's basically Draymond Green sized and there's only one Draymond, but he's a decent defender with a good motor who is shooting 39.2% from three this year. I don't think his block numbers will translate to the NBA but he also adds a bit of passing. I think he's likely to start his career in the G-League, but could be a good rotation piece in the future.

 

[twslam07]

Murray just had a really big statement game with a lot more offensive diversity than the few games I've seen. Some transition handle, some off-ball movement type stuff. Showed way more handle, way more individual shot creation from the perimeter. Love seeing the grab defensive board and go skill. Saw quite a few really nice C&S opportunities and there's nothing in the form that would suggest he can't be a good shooter.

I don't see like any potential wing upside, but he should still be a good switchable 4. He just looks like a quality starting 4 in the NBA. Athleticism, wingspan, good shot, some wing skills. Now that you mention it, current Barnes (not Warriors/prospect Barnes) is a pretty great comparison

Barnes + the ability to play good defense and block shots.

Barnes came out of after his Sophomore season. Here's a comparison of their Sophomore seasons (per 40 min):



Murray has him beat everywhere.

 

[ParniValjak]

Looking at the cap sheet you see there is a chance to have major space around Fox/Sabonis after next year. If Monte can cut part of Holmes' deal then you're talking huge possibilities.

Holmes situation is REALLY interesting to me. It makes sense to move him and spend that money on a quality starter. However, the contract is pretty good and Holmes' level is a back up C on a championship level team.

Money is still on Holmes getting moved but even if he stayed, it could work but it may take him some time to adjust.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Holmes situation is REALLY interesting to me. It makes sense to move him and spend that money on a quality starter. However, the contract is pretty good and Holmes' level is a back up C on a championship level team.

Money is still on Holmes getting moved but even if he stayed, it could work but it may take him some time to adjust.

Abso-frickin-lutely.

We're not going to get a top 4 pick in the draft most likely but Monte has shown aptitude in the draft and I trust him even if we have to pick 15 to find a piece that could be foundational to a Fox/Sabonis core. Obviously you hope that possibly Holmes can net a player ready to be that guy now but if he proves capable as the guy to rest Sabonis with no problem keeping him on his contract.

The main thing right now is we actually have a roster where we have a pretty clear two-man game in Fox and Sabonis with HB as your third option and he is feasting. We've got 3 & D guys instead of the 3 no D guy we had last week. And between everyone else on the roster they fit around. So we're looking at small upgrades when moves can be made rather than "if onlys". God damn it feels good that my biggest concern is that two 25 year olds feel old.

 

[ESP47]

Holmes situation is REALLY interesting to me. It makes sense to move him and spend that money on a quality starter. However, the contract is pretty good and Holmes' level is a back up C on a championship level team.

Money is still on Holmes getting moved but even if he stayed, it could work but it may take him some time to adjust.

Holmes used to be a backup level C on a championship level team but ever since his injury he's been below Damian Jones' level. I wish I knew what was up with the dude.

 

[SacTownKid]

Holmes situation is REALLY interesting to me. It makes sense to move him and spend that money on a quality starter. However, the contract is pretty good and Holmes' level is a back up C on a championship level team.

Money is still on Holmes getting moved but even if he stayed, it could work but it may take him some time to adjust.

If they can find a valuable spot for Holmes and he wants to stick then it's workable for sure.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Holmes used to be a backup level C on a championship level team but ever since his injury he's been below Damian Jones' level. I wish I knew what was up with the dude.

You don't think having his eye poked out and adapting to goggles is the major issue?

 

[SLAB]

You don't think having his eye poked out and adapting to goggles is the major issue?

The energy level just feels off as well.

 

[SacTownKid]

Abso-frickin-lutely.

We're not going to get a top 4 pick in the draft most likely but Monte has shown aptitude in the draft and I trust him even if we have to pick 15 to find a piece that could be foundational to a Fox/Sabonis core. Obviously you hope that possibly Holmes can net a player ready to be that guy now but if he proves capable as the guy to rest Sabonis with no problem keeping him on his contract.

The main thing right now is we actually have a roster where we have a pretty clear two-man game in Fox and Sabonis with HB as your third option and he is feasting. We've got 3 & D guys instead of the 3 no D guy we had last week. And between everyone else on the roster they fit around. So we're looking at small upgrades when moves can be made rather than "if onlys". God damn it feels good that my biggest concern is that two 25 year olds feel old.

There are a lot of really good G's in this draft, and stretch 4/3 types. The trades completely changed the dynamic of what he can afford to do in the draft now. I'm totally on the Johnny Davis bandwagon, but before a team built around Tyrese/Fox/Davion/Buddy would have been a terrible situation. Now that future SG slot is totally wide open if a can't miss one is available.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

There are a lot of really good G's in this draft, and stretch 4/3 types. The trades completely changed the dynamic of what he can afford to do in the draft now. I'm totally on the Johnny Davis bandwagon, but before a team built around Tyrese/Fox/Davion/Buddy would have been a terrible situation. Now that future SG slot is totally wide open if a can't miss one is available.

I think you want a stretch 4/3 to pair with Barnes and maybe ultimately take his spot but you can totally draft BPA and make a move for that guy later if that's what the draft gives you. The Kings fandom may have to adjust to not getting attached to players but the Pats fan in me says I'm all aboard if it produces winning basketball. Hell even as a college hoops fan watching 4* kids you were hyped on get recruited over and transfer to B level programs I'm just used to it now.

 

[Fantazija]

Holmes situation is REALLY interesting to me. It makes sense to move him and spend that money on a quality starter. However, the contract is pretty good and Holmes' level is a back up C on a championship level team.

Money is still on Holmes getting moved but even if he stayed, it could work but it may take him some time to adjust.

Holmes is great as a back up C.But if Kings want to be anything more than a play-in contender they will need 35+ min of DS.Couple minutes that they played together in a game vs Wizards were the worst stretch of the game imo.So basically Holmes would be reduced to 10-12 min a game and as an insurance policy(which could be quite handy, while DS is not injury prone he misses games here and there because of the extreme physical style of play).So does he bring more value as a glorified back up or a trade chip?

 

[SacTownKid]

Holmes is great as a back up C.But if Kings want to be anything more than a play-in contender they will need 35+ min of DS.Couple minutes that they played together in a game vs Wizards were the worst stretch of the game imo.So basically Holmes would be reduced to 10-12 min a game and as an insurance policy(which could be quite handy, while DS is not injury prone he misses games here and there because of the extreme physical style of play).So does he bring more value as a glorified back up or a trade chip?

Yeah, the first experiment in the Wiz game with Domas/Holmes was a disaster. MLE level money for a backup like that is an overpay if the winning isn't there at an elite level. And of course, if Holmes is not happy to the extent that it becomes an issue then you don't want that in a fresh locker room. Honestly if he were happy being a 12 mpg backup I'd say be more worried but if he accepts it and plays hard you're good. Value wise? I'm not sure if him lacking in production would hurt him. Monte needs to kick the tires on a trade around draft night regardless.

 

[The_Jamal]

Holmes used to be a backup level C on a championship level team but ever since his injury he's been below Damian Jones' level. I wish I knew what was up with the dude.

His mom said recently his cousin just died and that's why he was out for personal reasons during that Twolves game before the trade deadline. And it's been such an up and down year injury wise with getting his eye poked to hell, covid, etc. AND after finally thinking he's going to be a long-term starter, his team goes and trades for an all-star at his position.

Given that he was just as dominant the first 20 games of the year and has basically slowed down since the injury/covid/his cousin passing away, I'll give him a pass for the lack of energy/passion he normally plays with.

 

[twslam07]

The defense from Mitchell & DiVincenzo would be excellent next to Sabonis in the starting lineup, but it doesn't make sense starting both with Fox here (obviously). Makes me wonder if a Fox/Barnes for Ingram type deal is an option. It'd free up Mitchell & DiVincenzo to start at PG & SG, Ingram starts at SF, Washington at PF (Holmes for Washington trade), and Sabonis at C. We'd still have our 1st round pick to try and strike gold again.

If BOS didn't trade for White, I'd be pushing for a Fox/Barnes for Brown trade as I'd really like to have 4 good defenders at 1-4 to cover for Sabonis as much as possible (and Ingram is not that good on that side of the ball).

Fox has been playing much better in the new year. Perhaps his value climbs enough before the offseason to make a Fox for Ingram (no Barnes) swap more realistic:

Oct-Dec (per36): .520 TS% / .445 FG% / .252 3PT% / .737 FT% / 21.4 PPG / 3.7 RPG / 5.4 APG / 1.4 SPG / 0.5 BPG / 3.0 TOPG / 1.80 AST:TO
Jan-Feb (per36): .577 TS% / .498 FG% / .306 3PT% / .791 FT% / 25.4 PPG / 4.8 RPG / 5.1 APG / 0.7 APG / 0.2 BPG / 2.7 TOPG / 1.92 AST:TO

Those Jan-Feb numbers are pretty on par with last season with less assists (7.4) but a higher TS% (.565). The last 3 games (post Sabonis/Haliburton swap), he's averaging (per36):

.586 TS% / .492 FG% / .308 3PT% / .895 FT% / 26.5 PPG / 4.0 RPG / 3.4 APG / 0.0 SPG / 0.7 BPG / 1.7 TOPG / 2.00 AST:TO

 

[EIM86]

Holmes used to be a backup level C on a championship level team but ever since his injury he's been below Damian Jones' level. I wish I knew what was up with the dude.

im hearing he took that personal day off due to a death to someone either in the family or really close to the family. If that is the case, it must have hit him really hard

 

[PacMan]

Holmes used to be a backup level C on a championship level team but ever since his injury he's been below Damian Jones' level. I wish I knew what was up with the dude.

His cousin who apparently is someone close to him just died so some of it maybe a grieving process

 

[ESP47]

im hearing he took that personal day off due to a death to someone either in the family or really close to the family. If that is the case, it must have hit him really hard

He did but that was recently and his play has been bad for quite some time now.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

You don't think having his eye poked out and adapting to goggles is the major issue?

He used to play with more intensity and aggression, before the two shots to his face and eye. The medical team told him that he better always wear eye protection, because if he were take another strike to that eye he could permanently lose vision. It seems to have made him more passive around contact.

I expect him to get back to himself in time

 

[Larry89]

Jalen Smith looks like an interesting prospect that the Pacers traded for, has good athleticism and that 4/5 combo that could be a pairing with Sabonis or a backup.. he is unrestricted next year.

I have not been impressed with Metu's defense or Richauns this season. Moe has his moments but he is more of a 3/4 and he is at times an offensive burden. I have also been unimpressed with Dearrons defense, it has taken a step down recently.

Also I was quite perplexed at some of the lineup decisions last night. If you play Richaun, you need to pair him with a better defensive 4, not Metu. Sabonis seemed to be docile and used as a screener and roller. He needs the ball in his hands more often.

 

[The_Jamal]

Jalen Smith looks like an interesting prospect that the Pacers traded for, has good athleticism and that 4/5 combo that could be a pairing with Sabonis or a backup.. he is unrestricted next year.

I have not been impressed with Metu's defense or Richauns this season. Moe has his moments but he is more of a 3/4 and he is at times an offensive burden. I have also been unimpressed with Dearrons defense, it has taken a step down recently.

Also I was quite perplexed at some of the lineup decisions last night. If you play Richaun, you need to pair him with a better defensive 4, not Metu. Sabonis seemed to be docile and used as a screener and roller. He needs the ball in his hands more often.

Yeah I'm real interested, because it looks like he'll get some run at the 4 in Indy. And the Pacers basically can't keep him since PHX declined the option so if anyone comes in with longer term 6-7 mil deal, it's like adding another young guy for free to the mix.

 

[jcassio]

Yeah would assume moving on from Davis, but the appeal for me is a few things. I think you can interchangeably play Fox, DDV, Monk, Mitchell together, they're all still so young and already good (DDV 25, Mitchell 23, Monk 24, Fox 24) with conceivably more upside in them getting better, and Monk fills in the only glaring hole that you don't get with DDV, Fox, Mitchell with his elite spacing and shot creation ability. Monk is also a ridiculous athlete who's another guy that should have a lot of fun with off-ball movement and receiving passes from Sabonis.

Unfortunately with Finney-Smith off the market this summer, there's just not a great bigger wing market this year. The Martin bros are kind of the only guys I see that fit the bill in terms of already being good with some play upside still built in. Monk isn't perfect in terms of being a traditional wing, but he's good, young, fills a pretty big hole with the projected core and adds another build around piece we can lock in. The Kings still need another ball-handler/secondary playmaker type to fill out the team, so may as well come in the form of an elite shooter like Monk who can provide those attributes as well.

I like Holiday a ton too, but he's on the older side and only signed for one more season. T.Davis has had great moments, but he's only signed one more season. Harkless only signed one more season. So it's very likely most (if not all) the new acquisitions outside of Sabonis and DDV aren't long-term pieces for us.

I like Monk. If we didn’t have Davis, I’d say yes, sign him up!
But we do have Davis, and I like him a lot.
Given that the subpar defense of Fox is here to stay, and Sabonis (for all he brings to the table) is not a great defender, is it too much to ask that the rest of the team be really good defenders?

 

[jcassio]

You don't think having his eye poked out and adapting to goggles is the major issue?

Yeah, there’s that. But the guy lost his mojo and his timing and instincts are all wrong. He doesn’t even seem to have his motor back. If he can rediscover his better self, I’m happy to have him as a backup center. But the drop off we’re looking at these days is hard to watch.