Are the Kings entering a rebuild phase?

Will The Kings actually commit to a rebuild for once?


  • Total voters
    50
Sabonis really feels like the one to deal with first. The longer this drags, the more his value decreases IMO. He will eventually ask out, maybe even demand where to. So what are logical landing spots, center needy teams?

Celtics - Not much to offer, but Simons big expiring + Hauser + Picks?
Hornets? - Are they ready to take a leap?
Suns? - Are they ready for another big contract? They have Green they could use for matching. No picks though.
Blazers - My favorite landing spot. Waiving Ayton hurt the expiring matching salary. Do we take on Grant if it comes with Scoot + picks?
Grizzlies - They may blow up themselves, but if they don't Aldama/KCP gets there for salary + they have extra picks.
GS - Kuminga/Buddy/Moody - are we past the Kuminga phase? We really should be trying to get Dyabante or Boozer next to Keegan.

Lots of maybes here. No clear answer. Hopefully Amick is right and teams are calling.
I would go with Portland, but not with Grant coming back. You can make the salaries work on the following:

Domas and Russ for Donovan Clingan, Robert Williams, Thybulle, Kris Murray, and Blake Wesley. That is basically four guys not in Portland's future and Clingan. Williams and Wesley are pure expiring contracts, Thybulle is an expiring but also an intriguing long term fit, and Kris is a good prospect. The prize would be Clingan and it gives you a chance at a next season roster, without other moves other than Demar either being traded or bought out, of:

Clingan/Max
Keegan/Precious (?)
Clifford/Thybulle/Kris
Lavine/Keon
Schroeder/Monk/Carter

If you can get off of Lavine and/or Schroder, even better.

For Portland, Domas gives them more star power, and Russ becomes a cheap, useful bench piece for a possible playoff run this year, without touching much of their core except Clingan.
 
Remember when we traded him Detroit or whoever thought they fleeced us initially.

Its rather unfortunate that Joerger refused to play him and Brandon Williams decided to take internal matters public, and of course Coach Bagley getting involved and souring everything. Of course his work ethic and these problems should have been easy to identify as they were evident at Duke where Coach K dumbed down his system for him but once we made that commitment you can't just not play a #2 pick two years into a rebuild.

I think it was evident after 2 years that Bagley was not going to be worth building around. When he was still 19 years old you could convince yourself that maybe in time the light bulb would go on but at no point in his career (Duke or NBA) has he ever looked like an effective defender so even if he committed to putting in the work, we were still looking at a 20 and 10 defensive liability with more TOs than assists, blocks, or steals. Those are the type of guys that you commit to at your own peril. The only right move there was to have better scouts and not draft him at all. I tried to warn people off him before the draft.

Dave Joerger could have been more diplomatic in his approach but he knew what the team had in Bagley and that put him in an impossible situation where he was ultimately going to be fired no matter what. The GM's pick for franchise player was not going to live up to the hype and he was going to get blamed for it. I actually respect him for standing on principle and coaching for wins instead of capitulating and taking the L. And 7 years later no coach has seen fit to play Bagley substantially more than the 25mpg he got with Joerger in that rookie season so the results speak for themselves. We still might have come out of that situation relatively unscathed but Vlade made it worse by hiring Luke Walton and wasting three years of development time for all of his first round selections.
 
The odds have flattened a bit as far as getting into the top 4 but as you can see, if the Kings finished with the 10th worst record, they have zero chance at picking 5-9 with about an 85% chance of picking 10th or 11th. Finishing in the bottom 4 is ideal because you're at least in the crap shoot territory without the odds of dropping too far down the order.

View attachment 14493

The fact that the #5 spot in the lottery has only a 2.2% chance of picking at #5 is kindof hilarious. And also that the #1 spot has almost a 50% chance of picking 5th.

Psychologically speaking, being at #5 and having a 90% chance of picking 1-7 is probably the best spot to be in as a fan.: There's a decent shot you'll be pleasantly surprised with the result and even if you get unlucky, it's not that big of a deal relative to expectation. Finishing with the worst record and picking 5th (like Utah last year) would be awful whereas finishing with the 5th worst record and picking 7th would just be mildly disappointing.
 
Right, but that’s exactly my point. Even if the Kings finished with the 10th worst record, the upside still isn’t meaningful enough to justify tanking. It only slightly increases the chance of jumping into the top 4, but the odds are still incredibly low across the board. Flattened odds mean that unless you’re a bottom 3 team, the difference in realistic outcomes isn’t big enough to outweigh punting on a chance at the playin.
If your point is just getting into the top 4 then it holds merit but you cant discount the fact that finishing 10th means you can't pick 5th-9th because those picks on average are more valuable than 10th and 11th.

Me personally, if I was given two scenarios and one was a run at the play in and the 13th slot in the lottery or the 5th slot in the lottery, I'll go with the 5th all day long. I think retooling for a legit playoff run is better than scratching and clawing at a play in possibility.
 
The only barrier is that if we are doing a tear down we are going to have to take some bad salary in exchange for picks, and we can't go into luxury tax on a team that is doing a reset. With any luck we can move off some of our dead weight without taking on long term dead money, but doing that should net us better picks.

Perry managed to do a full turnover in NYK with Dolan so who knows. I am at this point going to try to let go. This team has made me hate it anyways.

Perry is certainly in a tougher spot partly by his own doing. I still think the Kings are up against it if going full on Thunder with picks. They are still paying Keegan, their young guys aren't that young, etc. They should still have some degree of ability to do that but the homework is late so no A+'s are possible. Shoot for the C+/B- of rebuilds at this point. Now is about using the time they do have wisely. Build up the youth, gets some decent talent in the draft. Cut some salary if they can.

I still really don't think they can't get out from much money in the next season or so. Them trying to go for it, sign a Schroder, and all the other stuff has really kind of handicapped them to some degree. Especially with the apron limitations now. They did just about everything wrong in going for it so they just have to accept it for what it is. They pushed their youth to the backburner so no value there. They signed middling vets perhaps at higher than market value in players like Lyles and Schroder which sticks teams in a corner at some point. They restructured Domas' contract for no reason, just stupid. They are paying 20 million plus to a 6th man and not winning. They lost their star in a lateral move that isn't panning out when their ceiling was relatively low anyway. They death by a thousand pokes themselves with these non fully guaranteed years on contracts. All the things you don't want to gamble on they did and it is what it is at this point. Rookie contract youth and development. That's the way out if not out at least to somewhere else.
 
I think it was evident after 2 years that Bagley was not going to be worth building around. When he was still 19 years old you could convince yourself that maybe in time the light bulb would go on but at no point in his career (Duke or NBA) has he ever looked like an effective defender so even if he committed to putting in the work, we were still looking at a 20 and 10 defensive liability with more TOs than assists, blocks, or steals. Those are the type of guys that you commit to at your own peril. The only right move there was to have better scouts and not draft him at all. I tried to warn people off him before the draft.

Dave Joerger could have been more diplomatic in his approach but he knew what the team had in Bagley and that put him in an impossible situation where he was ultimately going to be fired no matter what. The GM's pick for franchise player was not going to live up to the hype and he was going to get blamed for it. I actually respect him for standing on principle and coaching for wins instead of capitulating and taking the L. And 7 years later no coach has seen fit to play Bagley substantially more than the 25mpg he got with Joerger in that rookie season so the results speak for themselves. We still might have come out of that situation relatively unscathed but Vlade made it worse by hiring Luke Walton and wasting three years of development time for all of his first round selections.
You can't pick a guy second and not play him though. It was an organizational wide failure. Nobody was "right" in any form of hindsight. It is just a complete exhibit of an organization in complete disarray with regard to making the actual pick itself to everything that followed, Joerger and Williams both leaking to the press and stoking a FO vs. coaching war in the local media was insane. F them all.
 
Perry is certainly in a tougher spot partly by his own doing. I still think the Kings are up against it if going full on Thunder with picks. They are still paying Keegan, their young guys aren't that young, etc. They should still have some degree of ability to do that but the homework is late so no A+'s are possible. Shoot for the C+/B- of rebuilds at this point. Now is about using the time they do have wisely. Build up the youth, gets some decent talent in the draft. Cut some salary if they can.

I still really don't think they can't get out from much money in the next season or so. Them trying to go for it, sign a Schroder, and all the other stuff has really kind of handicapped them to some degree. Especially with the apron limitations now. They did just about everything wrong in going for it so they just have to accept it for what it is. They pushed their youth to the backburner so no value there. They signed middling vets perhaps at higher than market value in players like Lyles and Schroder which sticks teams in a corner at some point. They restructured Domas' contract for no reason, just stupid. They are paying 20 million plus to a 6th man and not winning. They lost their star in a lateral move that isn't panning out when their ceiling was relatively low anyway. They death by a thousand pokes themselves with these non fully guaranteed years on contracts. All the things you don't want to gamble on they did and it is what it is at this point. Rookie contract youth and development. That's the way out if not out at least to somewhere else.
It was said that they signed Keegan knowing he had a lot of interest around the league. He wasn't an overpay and virtually any other team trading for him would have given him the same deal.

I am really not a fan of the Dennis signing but it may have been needed to have a "real PG" to get Vivek on board with "this is never going to work" and Dennis may help in making some of the pieces look more moveable. But so far he has been mediocre and not worth the contract, and Russ was always right there for next to nothing.

Domas's contract came at a discount from what we would have given him as a FA the following season. It was a shrewd move at the time, though I think it was also done in part after Monte failed to get a free agent target to join for Y2 of the Beam Team so he just re-signed Domas and Barnes.
 
I would go with Portland, but not with Grant coming back. You can make the salaries work on the following:

Domas and Russ for Donovan Clingan, Robert Williams, Thybulle, Kris Murray, and Blake Wesley. That is basically four guys not in Portland's future and Clingan. Williams and Wesley are pure expiring contracts, Thybulle is an expiring but also an intriguing long term fit, and Kris is a good prospect. The prize would be Clingan and it gives you a chance at a next season roster, without other moves other than Demar either being traded or bought out, of:

Clingan/Max
Keegan/Precious (?)
Clifford/Thybulle/Kris
Lavine/Keon
Schroeder/Monk/Carter

If you can get off of Lavine and/or Schroder, even better.

For Portland, Domas gives them more star power, and Russ becomes a cheap, useful bench piece for a possible playoff run this year, without touching much of their core except Clingan.

That's the kind of deal Perry should be looking at. Cut some dough, get a decent young big. Yeah, could be a lot better but tough stuff.
 
It was said that they signed Keegan knowing he had a lot of interest around the league. He wasn't an overpay and virtually any other team trading for him would have given him the same deal.

I am really not a fan of the Dennis signing but it may have been needed to have a "real PG" to get Vivek on board with "this is never going to work" and Dennis may help in making some of the pieces look more moveable. But so far he has been mediocre and not worth the contract, and Russ was always right there for next to nothing.

Yeah, Keegan did. So did Monk. It's amazing how things can change when the new dollars start getting counted though. If Keegan keeps putting up 12 and 6 as a 4th option I'd challenge that notion here and now, haha. Either way, getting a totally clear salary cap isn't likely at this point and shouldn't be the goal IMO. Just don't be stupid with time. That's the biggest thing. Invest that time in something that might actually pay off and who will buy in to whatever the team is doing. Push Keegan up and pretend it's Iowa all over again and maybe watch that contract become one of the most valuable in the league. At the very worst he'll be no worse than John Collins at his peak before he started to catch flak for what he lacked.
 
You guys remember the Siakim talk a couple years ago? I’m hearing this narrative on ESPN 1320 that we could have had him but didn’t wanna extend him. I thought the initial talk was that Siakim didn't wanna play here? I’m confused. It’s discussed within the last 3-4 minutes of this clip

 
You can't pick a guy second and not play him though. It was an organizational wide failure. Nobody was "right" in any form of hindsight. It is just a complete exhibit of an organization in complete disarray with regard to making the actual pick itself to everything that followed, Joerger and Williams both leaking to the press and stoking a FO vs. coaching war in the local media was insane. F them all.

And obviously they knew he was turd when it came to how he approached the game but that's why it was even more important to shine up those numbers. A 20 year old big putting up 24 ppg and 12 rpg as a full time starter would have had somebodies attention so they could have pawned him off on someone else. They probably wanted to teach him a lesson and blah blah blah. Nope, give him the keys and cast him out of the kingdom ASAP.
 
I still really don't think they can't get out from much money in the next season or so. Them trying to go for it, sign a Schroder, and all the other stuff has really kind of handicapped them to some degree. Especially with the apron limitations now. They did just about everything wrong in going for it so they just have to accept it for what it is. They pushed their youth to the backburner so no value there. They signed middling vets perhaps at higher than market value in players like Lyles and Schroder which sticks teams in a corner at some point. They restructured Domas' contract for no reason, just stupid. They are paying 20 million plus to a 6th man and not winning.
Considering that the NBA salary floor is 90% of the salary cap, I don't think salaries are really that big of a deal in a rebuild. You have to be paying *somebody* and if you don't have players on the roster filling up that 90% you end up having to go out and spend $40M a year on a VanVleet to meet that salary floor.

This year the window in which to play with salary is basically over (yes, there's the trade market but cap rules make it hard to take on too much salary there anyhow). Next year, the Kings have something like $10M of elbow room under the tax as it is, and would only need to offload one of their big contracts in exchange for some ending salary to be 100% comfortable. After that, there's not a thing salary-wise standing between the Kings and whatever rebuild plans they have outside of potentially having to meet the salary floor.
 
You guys remember the Siakim talk a couple years ago? I’m hearing this narrative on ESPN 1320 that we could have had him but didn’t wanna extend him. I thought the initial talk was that Siakim didn't wanna play here? I’m confused. It’s discussed within the last 3-4 minutes of this clip


Hmmm... me thinks BS. They're basically paying the same money to someone anyway. Siakam made the right call. Also the Raptors were getting Keegan.
 
You guys remember the Siakim talk a couple years ago? I’m hearing this narrative on ESPN 1320 that we could have had him but didn’t wanna extend him. I thought the initial talk was that Siakim didn't wanna play here? I’m confused. It’s discussed within the last 3-4 minutes of this clip

I believe the scuttlebutt at the time was that the Kings and Raps were on the same page in terms of a trade package for Siakam, but *Siakam* wasn't willing to sign an extension with the Kings, so the Kings didn't follow through. There's a pretty big difference between those two situations.
 
Yeah, Keegan did. So did Monk. It's amazing how things can change when the new dollars start getting counted though. If Keegan keeps putting up 12 and 6 as a 4th option I'd challenge that notion here and now, haha. Either way, getting a totally clear salary cap isn't likely at this point and shouldn't be the goal IMO. Just don't be stupid with time. That's the biggest thing. Invest that time in something that might actually pay off and who will buy in to whatever the team is doing. Push Keegan up and pretend it's Iowa all over again and maybe watch that contract become one of the most valuable in the league. At the very worst he'll be no worse than John Collins at his peak before he started to catch flak for what he lacked.
Keegan had interest this summer though. So if the team wanted to move him I think they'd be able to. I hope they don't but the way we're headed he'll be 29 before we are competing for the same spot in the standings we did his rookie year.
 
Considering that the NBA salary floor is 90% of the salary cap, I don't think salaries are really that big of a deal in a rebuild. You have to be paying *somebody* and if you don't have players on the roster filling up that 90% you end up having to go out and spend $40M a year on a VanVleet to meet that salary floor.

This year the window in which to play with salary is basically over (yes, there's the trade market but cap rules make it hard to take on too much salary there anyhow). Next year, the Kings have something like $10M of elbow room under the tax as it is, and would only need to offload one of their big contracts in exchange for some ending salary to be 100% comfortable. After that, there's not a thing salary-wise standing between the Kings and whatever rebuild plans they have outside of potentially having to meet the salary floor.

Yeah but they are if the idea is to go on a spending spree or take on bad contracts, which nowadays is where the value is at. I mean, look at the Kings for craps sake when it comes to the DeMar DeRozan sign and trade. YIKES! This time be the Spurs, not the Kings. Going out and overpaying free agents is what it is, take the penalty if you have to if it isn't bad. Didn't the Kings do that at one point? I can't even remember now haha.
 
Keegan had interest this summer though. So if the team wanted to move him I think they'd be able to. I hope they don't but the way we're headed he'll be 29 before we are competing for the same spot in the standings we did his rookie year.

Maybe but we didn't hear any blockbuster rumors, I'm sure they can move him but the question is for what? If Keegan stays at this spot in the pecking order I would bet the farm his value on a rookie contract >>> his new deal. Which is obviously obvious. So instead of maybe landing a star you start looking at much less appealing offers.
 
Maybe but we didn't hear any blockbuster rumors, I'm sure they can move him but the question is for what? If Keegan stays at this spot in the pecking order I would bet the farm his value on a rookie contract >>> his new deal. Which is obviously obvious. So instead of maybe landing a star you start looking at much less appealing offers.
People weren't interested in him as an expiring contract though. We didn't overpay, I think its moot, other than on the new contract we have to take back more money. Could be a positive or a negative depending on whether we're trading for picks. Keegan is not a player I'm particularly interested in trading for a pick.
 
If your point is just getting into the top 4 then it holds merit but you cant discount the fact that finishing 10th means you can't pick 5th-9th because those picks on average are more valuable than 10th and 11th.

Me personally, if I was given two scenarios and one was a run at the play in and the 13th slot in the lottery or the 5th slot in the lottery, I'll go with the 5th all day long. I think retooling for a legit playoff run is better than scratching and clawing at a play in possibility.
I get what you’re saying about picks 5–9 being more valuable on average, but that’s kind of the problem with the current system as you don’t choose the 5th slot. You only choose to lose more games and hope the flattened odds actually land you there.

Even with the 5th best odds, you’re still likely to end up picking 7th or 8th, not 5th. And the jump into the top 4 is still low probability. So the difference between intentionally dropping to 5th worse to around 10th worst isn’t guaranteed value it’s still just betting on the randomness of the lottery.
 
You can't pick a guy second and not play him though. It was an organizational wide failure. Nobody was "right" in any form of hindsight. It is just a complete exhibit of an organization in complete disarray with regard to making the actual pick itself to everything that followed, Joerger and Williams both leaking to the press and stoking a FO vs. coaching war in the local media was insane. F them all.

This goes back to the overall organizational issues with establishing a clear hierarchy of leadership. If your coach says "I can't play this guy right now because he isn't ready and I'm trying to win games" then there needs to be a conversation where the message conveyed is either "prioritize development, your job is safe" or "can you make this guy work or should we trade him now before he loses all value?" A functional front office would have had that conversation internally and everyone agreed on a shared course of action. What we have instead seems to be subject to the whims of planetary alignment or whatever our current decision-maker had for breakfast that day and we continue to see dissension in the ranks either because there is a lack of respect for the decision-maker or because there is a lack of clear communication.

Doug coming out in the press conference and blasting the team (which I applaud him for since it was warranted) doesn't necessarily translate to a continued disconnect between ownership, front office, coaching staff, and players -- but it could be a warning sign. We've been dealing with slight variations of this same problem for so long now that I more or less have to operate under the assumption that nothing has changed until I see evidence that it has. And I still like Doug Christie and think he has potential as a head coach. He should be given a clean slate to start over next season with a roster that makes sense.
 
This goes back to the overall organizational issues with establishing a clear hierarchy of leadership. If your coach says "I can't play this guy right now because he isn't ready and I'm trying to win games" then there needs to be a conversation where the message conveyed is either "prioritize development, your job is safe" or "can you make this guy work or should we trade him now before he loses all value?" A functional front office would have had that conversation internally and everyone agreed on a shared course of action. What we have instead seems to be subject to the whims of planetary alignment or whatever our current decision-maker had for breakfast that day and we continue to see dissension in the ranks either because there is a lack of respect for the decision-maker or because there is a lack of clear communication.

Doug coming out in the press conference and blasting the team (which I applaud him for since it was warranted) doesn't necessarily translate to a continued disconnect between ownership, front office, coaching staff, and players -- but it could be a warning sign. We've been dealing with slight variations of this same problem for so long now that I more or less have to operate under the assumption that nothing has changed until I see evidence that it has. And I still like Doug Christie and think he has potential as a head coach. He should be given a clean slate to start over next season with a roster that makes sense.
I think Doug is in the position Chauncey Billups was in when he took the Blazers job. If Vivek does not get impatient and Doug does not engage in any illegal conduct (incidentally reports are that the FBI may have jumped the gun with Billups which should surprise nobody), if he gets 3 years he should be in good shape as a developmental guy.

Back to 2018 though, it's pretty clear that Vlade and Williams were not on the same page with Joerger. Ignoring Joerger's input to pick Doncic when the owners apparently also liked him was fatal for sure. I wish we could have retained Joerger but the fact he hasn't been given another HC opportunity alludes to the fact he may be a difficult personality to work with. That is why he became available to us after we initially whiffed on Walton the first time around. The organization appeared to be in a better place under Monte and Brown until Year 2 when Brown wouldn't play guys that Monte brought in but also asked for some pretty useless guys that he gave big minutes to (notably McGee).

I would like to know who/how we wound up with Williams though because F that guy.

Honestly no idea where we are at today. I've said numerous times that I think Perry is a "people" guy and I trust him to navigate getting us out of this mess although I don't have confidence at this point to get us into an era of success. I'm ok with that to a certain extent long getting over getting attached to anyone who comes through this organization since about 2008 or so. But I hope that Perry is at least listening to Doug as they search for an identity. Doug is a "mindset" guy and to that extent I trust his judgement even if his Xs and Os leave a little to be desired. I think Doug would reject Bagley.
 
I get what you’re saying about picks 5–9 being more valuable on average, but that’s kind of the problem with the current system as you don’t choose the 5th slot. You only choose to lose more games and hope the flattened odds actually land you there.

Even with the 5th best odds, you’re still likely to end up picking 7th or 8th, not 5th. And the jump into the top 4 is still low probability. So the difference between intentionally dropping to 5th worse to around 10th worst isn’t guaranteed value it’s still just betting on the randomness of the lottery.

If you still think the draft order all happens within these stated odds and by chance. I don't
 
If you still think the draft order all happens within these stated odds and by chance. I don't
There's enough anomalies to give you pause but then why put Wemby in San Antonio, why give us the #2 pick and a crack at Luka when that was on the table? Why do teams like Charlotte and Washington ever get top 4 picks? Honestly I don't know if its rigged or on the level or a bit of both. What I do know is the lottery is kind of stupid and isn't working as it was intended. Would love to find a new solution that isn't just the outright tankathon of MLB and NFL but does reward teams that try. Good luck coming up with that system which is why I think the NBA and NHL have stuck with some form of draft lotto all these years.

Maybe ditch restricted free agency and put in some sort of compensation system when players leave after their rookie contracts?
 
There's enough anomalies to give you pause but then why put Wemby in San Antonio, why give us the #2 pick and a crack at Luka when that was on the table? Why do teams like Charlotte and Washington ever get top 4 picks? Honestly I don't know if its rigged or on the level or a bit of both. What I do know is the lottery is kind of stupid and isn't working as it was intended. Would love to find a new solution that isn't just the outright tankathon of MLB and NFL but does reward teams that try. Good luck coming up with that system which is why I think the NBA and NHL have stuck with some form of draft lotto all these years.

Maybe ditch restricted free agency and put in some sort of compensation system when players leave after their rookie contracts?

Because San Antonio is a solid stable organization that was putting together a good young roster. Ranadive had played his NBA politics hand and waited in line for a top pick. His turn came around and he blew it
 
Because San Antonio is a solid stable organization that was putting together a good young roster. Ranadive had played his NBA politics hand and waited in line for a top pick. His turn came around and he blew it
San Antonio's roster will be composed entirely of post-Wemby players within 1 or 2 years. Nobody wants any of the horrid contracts they signed before Wemby arrived.

Now I would buy that they won the slots that landed them Castle and Harper to help them build Wemby into a champion, and I will buy that Dallas was rewarded for moving Luka. that's why I say there is plenty of circumstantial evidence to support conspiracies.
 
That's part of my point
Right - there's reason to think that they wanted to help Wemby, but there's no reason to think that Houston or Dallas or Orlando who all had lotto picks wouldn't have been better destinations for the next big star if they rigged that pick.
 
Back
Top