An NBA Scout's assessment of the Players

[beb0p]

Yes, we all know Oden and Durrant will be great. But Jeff Green is a potential franchise player? Spencer Hawes will never be an All-Star but will be a solid starter? Acie Law may be a career backup unless he goes to the right team? Al Thornton too talented not to be at least a starter and probably an All-Star?

Just in case you missed it, an unnamed NBA scout has contributed profiles to sn on some players:

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=228142

I usually put more weight on the pro's assessment than those from DX or nbadraft.net. So my take after reading the profiles is that I may be underrating Green by lightyears! And five years from now Thornton and Julian Wright are All-Stars and make whoever picked Hawes ahead of those two look stupid.

 

[hrdboild]

Jeff Green is legitimately 6-10 with enough strength to play PF and enough perimeter game to play SF. He's the best kind of tweener. He's also a lot more athletic than he typically gets credit for. Only drawback is his short wingspan for a player his size, but I can see franchise player. Al Thornton, the more I see of him, looks a lot like Paul Pierce (just without the passing ability). He's got a great jumpshot and he's strong enough to play inside. Those are some good relatively low-risk picks. Julian Wright and Yi Jianlian look like the biggest risks to me, but there might be enough upside there to justify picking them. Those are good reviews, thanks for posting them.

 

[Kingster]

Yes, we all know Oden and Durrant will be great. But Jeff Green is a potential franchise player? Spencer Hawes will never be an All-Star but will be a solid starter? Acie Law may be a career backup unless he goes to the right team? Al Thornton too talented not to be at least a starter and probably an All-Star?

Just in case you missed it, an unnamed NBA scout has contributed profiles to sn on some players:

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=228142

I usually put more weight on the pro's assessment than those from DX or nbadraft.net. So my take after reading the profiles is that I may be underrating Green by lightyears! And five years from now Thornton and Julian Wright are All-Stars and make whoever picked Hawes ahead of those two look stupid.

Thanks for the research. I'd be happy if we drafted J. Wright, traded Artest, traded Salmons (he would just take pt away from Wright). Let Julian play BIG minutes, have Garcia come of the bench at the 1,2, and 3. In a couple years he could be close to All-Star level. If we can get a point guard who pushes the ball, it could be exciting.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Jeff Green is legitimately 6-10 with enough strength to play PF and enough perimeter game to play SF.

Jeff Green is 6'7.75 w/o shoes, that's not a "legit" 6'10.

He's also a lot more athletic than he typically gets credit for.

That's because he doesn't fully utilize his athleticism in games. IMO, he's way too passive to be a franchise player.

 

[hrdboild]

His official measurment says 6'9.5" with shoes on. That's 6'10" on an NBA roster. All NBA measurments are with shoes on and they always round up. As for the passivity, when people say he could be a franchise player they mean he has the tools to do it. Whether he gets there or not depends on his personality, sure, but in terms of pure physical tools he's as athletic as anyone. People said the same thing about Hibbert, but a lot of that has to do with Georgetown playing a slow-tempo Princeton offense. They're encouraged to slow down the game and play as a team, not take over individually.

 

[Vlade4GM]

His official measurment says 6'9.5" with shoes on. That's 6'10" on an NBA roster. All NBA measurments are with shoes on and they always round up. As for the passivity, when people say he could be a franchise player they mean he has the tools to do it. Whether he gets there or not depends on his personality, sure, but in terms of pure physical tools he's as athletic as anyone. People said the same thing about Hibbert, but a lot of that has to do with Georgetown playing a slow-tempo Princeton offense. They're encouraged to slow down the game and play as a team, not take over individually.

You said "legit" 6'10, since when does legit mean wearing nearly 2 inch thick shoes and rounding up a half inch.

Personality and mentality are big factors in projecting a player, taking them out of the equation and just considering physical tools to determine whether someone has franchise player potential cheapens that label IMO. You can maybe overlook that stuff for younger/inexperienced players, but Green is going on 21 and a junior in college, very unlikely he develops a scorer's mentality at this point. He's not a great shooter, doesn't have very good foot speed/quickness, and doesn't have much of a post game for a NBA pf. He's a solid rebounder, has good court vision and passing for his size, good handles, and he's a smart player but he's not elite at anything. He can very well be a good role playing starter, but nothing more than that IMO.

 

[hrdboild]

You said "legit" 6'10, since when does legit mean wearing nearly 2 inch thick shoes and rounding up a half inch.

Personality and mentality are big factors in projecting a player, taking them out of the equation and just considering physical tools to determine whether someone has franchise player potential cheapens that label IMO. You can maybe overlook that stuff for younger/inexperienced players, but Green is going on 21 and a junior in college, very unlikely he develops a scorer's mentality at this point. He's not a great shooter, doesn't have very good foot speed/quickness, and doesn't have much of a post game for a NBA pf. He's a solid rebounder, has good court vision and passing for his size, good handles, and he's a smart player but he's not elite at anything. He can very well be a good role playing starter, but nothing more than that IMO.

Yeah, you're right that "legit" is maybe not the best word choice there, but when we're talking about size we mean comparitively don't we? We want to know how they measure up to players who are in the NBA right now. Looking at Jeff Green's draft measurment, he could easily be listed at 6'10" on an NBA roster. Unless you have access to the draft combine results of everyone in the NBA, I don't know what else we should be comparing him to. Maybe calling him 6'10" is shady, but shady in the same way as the rest of the NBA. In an imperfect world perhaps that could qualify as "legit".

I would also agree with you that a player's personality, their willingness to improve and to play hard are a big factor in projecting their overall talent. On the other hand, we're always talking about potential with draft prospects. Jeff Green has the right combination of size, basketball IQ, and skills to eventually be a franchise player if he puts it all together. He's got the size to play PF if he can develop the right skillset to go with it. That's an absolute best case scenario, and I don't look at Jeff Green and think franchise player either, but I think it's fair to say that his ceiling his higher than most people have projected. And seeing him move up mock drafts as news of his workout performance leaks out speaks well of his potential.

With all of these prospects there's going to be a glass is half-full and a glass is half-empty point of view. I'm not exactly disagreeing with you, just trying to point out there is some evidence in his favor. Last year's rookie of the year was Brandon Roy, and it wasn't even close. Jeff Green is similar to Brandon Roy. Not a lot of hype, not going to single-handidly save a franchise, but it's highly unlikely you'll be disappointed with him.

 

[Kingster]

Yeah, you're right that "legit" is maybe not the best word choice there, but when we're talking about size we mean comparitively don't we? We want to know how they measure up to players who are in the NBA right now. Looking at Jeff Green's draft measurment, he could easily be listed at 6'10" on an NBA roster. Unless you have access to the draft combine results of everyone in the NBA, I don't know what else we should be comparing him to. Maybe calling him 6'10" is shady, but shady in the same way as the rest of the NBA. In an imperfect world perhaps that could qualify as "legit".

I would also agree with you that a player's personality, their willingness to improve and to play hard are a big factor in projecting their overall talent. On the other hand, we're always talking about potential with draft prospects. Jeff Green has the right combination of size, basketball IQ, and skills to eventually be a franchise player if he puts it all together. He's got the size to play PF if he can develop the right skillset to go with it. That's an absolute best case scenario, and I don't look at Jeff Green and think franchise player either, but I think it's fair to say that his ceiling his higher than most people have projected. And seeing him move up mock drafts as news of his workout performance leaks out speaks well of his potential.

With all of these prospects there's going to be a glass is half-full and a glass is half-empty point of view. I'm not exactly disagreeing with you, just trying to point out there is some evidence in his favor. Last year's rookie of the year was Brandon Roy, and it wasn't even close. Jeff Green is similar to Brandon Roy. Not a lot of hype, not going to single-handidly save a franchise, but it's highly unlikely you'll be disappointed with him.

I saw Roy dominate teams in college. Have you seen that with Green? I haven't seen enough of him to know.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Jeff Green has the right combination of size, basketball IQ, and skills to eventually be a franchise player if he puts it all together. He's got the size to play PF if he can develop the right skillset to go with it.

These are huge ifs that are just straight up unreasonable to expect.

 

[beb0p]

I'm not a fan of Jeff Green either, but there must be reasons he is rated so highly by pros who do this for a living. Chad Ford wrote that Green is rated by all the NBA teams he spoke to in the 2nd tier bracket (same tier with Al Horford, Yi Jianlian, and Conley), above guys like Noah and Al Thornton. So there seems to be a consensus among NBA that Green is a blue-chipper.

I don't think Green will be on the board when we pick. But I am now a little curious on how he'll fare in the NBA.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I'm not a fan of Jeff Green either, but there must be reasons he is rated so highly by pros who do this for a living. Chad Ford wrote that Green is rated by all the NBA teams he spoke to in the 2nd tier bracket (same tier with Al Horford, Yi Jianlian, and Conley), above guys like Noah and Al Thornton. So there seems to be a consensus among NBA that Green is a blue-chipper.

I don't think Green will be on the board when we pick. But I am now a little curious on how he'll fare in the NBA.

Well he's definitely lottery worthy and I don't think he'll be a bad player by any means. He'll probably be a solid role playing starter, I just don't think he's the right pick for us.

 

[Widowmaker2k]

They list Oden as 7'10"

Also, Hawes apparently is extremely conservative...the Brad Miller redux?

 

[Ryle]

You said "legit" 6'10, since when does legit mean wearing nearly 2 inch thick shoes and rounding up a half inch.

Personality and mentality are big factors in projecting a player, taking them out of the equation and just considering physical tools to determine whether someone has franchise player potential cheapens that label IMO. You can maybe overlook that stuff for younger/inexperienced players, but Green is going on 21 and a junior in college, very unlikely he develops a scorer's mentality at this point. He's not a great shooter, doesn't have very good foot speed/quickness, and doesn't have much of a post game for a NBA pf. He's a solid rebounder, has good court vision and passing for his size, good handles, and he's a smart player but he's not elite at anything. He can very well be a good role playing starter, but nothing more than that IMO.

Considering they play in Shoes I would say it's legit.

 

[Smills91]

I'm high on Jeff Green. I would love to pick him if he's there at 10. He's 6'9-6'10 with shoes on, they play in shoes, therefore that is his height. You're splitting straws with this issue.

I really only see one way the Kings can go wrong at #10 and that is if Yi slips to 10.

B. Wright
J. Green
M. Conley
J. Wright
C. Brewer
J. Noah
S. Hawes

1 of those 7 will be there at #10 and honestly I don't think you can go wrong with any of those picks at #10.

 

[nbrans]

^There is no way on earth that all 7 of those guys are going to pan out. That's just not the way drafts work. You can definitely go wrong.

 

[Smills91]

^There is no way on earth that all 7 of those guys are going to pan out. That's just not the way drafts work. You can definitely go wrong.

You can add Thronton, Law, Nick Young, Thad Young, etc to the list and I guarantee you can't go wrong with Petrie picking.

 

[Bricklayer]

Oh good lord. Of course you can go wrong. The last time Geoff picked this hihg he took Jason Williams over Dirk and Pierce.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Considering they play in Shoes I would say it's legit.

He's wearing shoes about a half inch thicker than most.

 

[PurpleHaze]

^There is no way on earth that all 7 of those guys are going to pan out. That's just not the way drafts work. You can definitely go wrong.

Absolutely!

Look at the 1985 draft, the first in Sac Kings history - a disaster for not only the Kings but about half of the first 24 selections being considered mediocre if not outright NBA busts. Joe Kleine at #6 being one of those "mediocre" ones at best taken over Karl Malone at #13. Who is Alfredrick Hughes, Kenny Green, Steve Harris??

1985

NO.
PLAYER, SCHOOL/COUNTRY
TEAM
1.
Patrick Ewing Georgetown
New York
2.
Wayman Tisdale, Oklahoma
Indiana
3.
Benoit Benjamin, Creighton
L.A. Clippers
4.
Xavier McDaniel, Wichita State
Seattle
5.
Jon Koncak, Southern Methodist
Atlanta
6.
Joe Kleine, Arkansas
Sacramento
7.
Chris Mullin, St. John's
Golden State
8.
Detlef Schrempf, Washington
Dallas
9.
Charles Oakley, Virginia Union
Cleveland (1)
10.
Ed Pinckney, Villanova
Phoenix
11.
Keith Lee, Memphis State
Chicago (1)
12.
Kenny Green, Wake Forest
Washington
13.
Karl Malone, Louisiana Tech
Utah
14.
Alfredrick Hughes, Loyola
San Antonio
15.
Blair Rasmussen, Oregon
Denver
16.
Bill Wennington, St. John's
Dallas
17.
Uwe Blab, Indiana
Dallas
18.
Joe Dumars, McNeese State
Detroit
19.
Steve Harris, Tulsa
Houston
20.
Sam Vincent, Michigan State
Boston
21.
Terry Catledge, South Alabama
Philadelphia
22.
Jerry Reynolds, Louisiana State
Milwaukee
23.
A.C. Green, Oregon State
L.A. Lakers
24.
Terry Porter, Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Portland
(1) Chicago trades Ennis Whatley and rights to Keith Lee to Cleveland for Calvin Duncan and rights to Charles Oakley.

 

[Bricklayer]

The whole shoes thing...

1) this particualr scout wants to have Green's love child. that's fine. But hardly canon. NBA scouts screw up every year just like everybooyd else. he might be right, he might not.

2) Green has a big strong body for a SF, the biggest and strongest of all the prospects, regardless of the exact height.

3) but that doesn't make him an NBA caliber PF, on the glass, in the post. It makes him a biggish SF. Maybe even a tweener. It could very make him into Rodney McCray or Billy Owens. We've been there with this frnchise before. Let somebody else gamble their lottery pick on a roleplayer in colelge who is now supposed to be a star in the NBA. I'm sure its happened at some pont in the past, and may agian in the future. May even happen hee. But its not nearly so likely as the glowing potential "franchise player" assessment of this scout makes it seem.

 

[nbrans]

^Yeah, exactly. Something I never understand -- how is a guy who never dominated a college game supposed to dominate in the pros? I mean, Jeff Green had some nice games, but was there any time where you were like, "Wow, Jeff Green!" His greatest moment in college was when he traveled because he couldn't get his shot off.

 

[RIP miyagi]

that article has me feeling a lot better about drafting al thornton. Not that they can really see into the future, but i haven't really read anything about al thornton

 

[Smills91]

^Yeah, exactly. Something I never understand -- how is a guy who never dominated a college game supposed to dominate in the pros? I mean, Jeff Green had some nice games, but was there any time where you were like, "Wow, Jeff Green!" His greatest moment in college was when he traveled because he couldn't get his shot off.

See Danny Granger, I think that's the best comparison for Jeff Green.

 

[Smills91]

Oh good lord. Of course you can go wrong. The last time Geoff picked this hihg he took Jason Williams over Dirk and Pierce.

And that pick alone single handedly put the Kings back onto the NBA map. While Dirk/PP are now currently better players...Williams turned into Bibby and during those first 6 years since that draft it was a great choice. We had Webber/Vlade and Williams made the NBA fun again made Sacramento a HOT SPOT for veteran Free agents to sign and/or re-sign with the Kings on the cheap. Williams doesn't get enough credit for the OTHER things he brought to the league and the Kings outside the lines. Bibby was the PERFECT PG for the title runs. Sure 20/20 hindsight and long run it wasn't the BEST choice, but I don't think Jason Williams was the WRONG pick, Tractor TRAYLOR would have been the wrong pick.

 

[nbrans]

See Danny Granger, I think that's the best comparison for Jeff Green.

Ok, but Danny Granger is not exactly setting the league on fire. Jeff Green will probably be a fine glue guy like Granger, but a franchise player? I really don't see it.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Ok, but Danny Granger is not exactly setting the league on fire. Jeff Green will probably be a fine glue guy like Granger, but a franchise player? I really don't see it.

I don't see how he compares to Granger, Granger is a shooter/scorer.

 

[Emma]

Al Thornton is about to be 24 and has not played a single game in the NBA ![causes me despair] He may turn out to be another J.O. or (more than likely) 'Reef but he may also only give you 2 great playing years. I hope to God that Noah is still on the board.