“RUN IT BACK!” / Monte needs to fix this.

[Geoff]

Wasn’t sure which thread the Ringer’s post mortem should go in, but this has quotes from Monte, so why not here? I’ve drifted away from their content the last several months, but this is by the usually solid Howard Beck:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/4/22/24137192/sacramento-kings-trades-rumors-nba-offseason

From the article:

But Fox sees hope as he scans the top of the West standings, and a common trait: patience. It took the Thunder five years to make this leap after acquiring Gilgeous-Alexander in 2019. It took the Timberwolves four years after drafting Edwards (and nine years after drafting Karl-Anthony Towns). Heck, it took the Nuggets four years just to make the playoffs with Jokic—and another four after that to win the championship. The leap from good to great takes time.
“Not just in basketball,” said Brown, “but I think in life, there’s a process you got to go through, as a young person or young team. You might be pretty good. But you’re still going to hit some roadblocks because you have other people gunning for you.”


This needs to be pinned in every thread.

 

[sactowndog]

Then trade Sabonis if he is not good for the Kings....

that assumes you could get something back or a team willing to take his contract

also from the Beck article…..

Not everyone is convinced, however. “I just don’t like the way they’re built,” said a rival scout of the Kings. “They’re running everything through [Sabonis] as if he was Jokic, but he’s not Jokic. He’s a hell of a player, but he can’t shoot, so he can’t really stretch the floor. It makes it a really static type of basketball.”

 

[NiNetNiNe]

From the article:

But Fox sees hope as he scans the top of the West standings, and a common trait: patience. It took the Thunder five years to make this leap after acquiring Gilgeous-Alexander in 2019. It took the Timberwolves four years after drafting Edwards (and nine years after drafting Karl-Anthony Towns). Heck, it took the Nuggets four years just to make the playoffs with Jokic—and another four after that to win the championship. The leap from good to great takes time.
“Not just in basketball,” said Brown, “but I think in life, there’s a process you got to go through, as a young person or young team. You might be pretty good. But you’re still going to hit some roadblocks because you have other people gunning for you.”


This needs to be pinned in every thread.

Yeah, that was my favorite part of the article.

The Kings have a solid foundation with Fox, Ellis, Murray, and Sabonis. The biggest weakness we have is Barnes, as much as I like him, he should be coming off the bench. But since the allstar break we were hovering in the top 8 for defense. If we can't fill that hole wit ha trade, there are some promising guys we can draft, at our spot, for that position as well.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

that assumes you could get something back or a team willing to take his contract

also from the Beck article…..

Not everyone is convinced, however. “I just don’t like the way they’re built,” said a rival scout of the Kings. “They’re running everything through [Sabonis] as if he was Jokic, but he’s not Jokic. He’s a hell of a player, but he can’t shoot, so he can’t really stretch the floor. It makes it a really static type of basketball.”

The rival scout that in the next part of the quote says Fox needs to be paired with a traditional PG so he can off ball.

Dude. That scout is not it.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I’d have to assume if we make a substantial move it will be on draft night. 13 plus either Barnes or KVon is probably the play. A mid level signing of some sort if Monk leaves. Makes sure to get past the bottom 12 and let that pick convey. Now you have a valuable second round pick from Portland in ‘25 and access to your first round picks for a bigger move if needed.

 

[The_Jamal]

not overpaying???
Sabonis
41.8M
44.9M
48.1M
51.2M

that is a lot of money to pay for a player that can’t lead you out of the first round or play-in of the play-offs.

You're ridiculous.

So we should trade Fox then too right? He also failed in leading a playoff spot. Fire Brown as well? At least be ideologically consistent in your "take". If one franchise pillar failed they all did, so they should all be gone right?

 

[sactowndog]

You're ridiculous.

So we should trade Fox then too right? He also failed in leading a playoff spot. Fire Brown as well? At least be ideologically consistent in your "take". If one franchise pillar failed they all did, so they should all be gone right?

so Fox is about 10M a year less than Sabonis and shoots better than Sabonis.

look I love Sabonis the person. I love his reliability and effort. But until Sabonis can reliably hit an outside shot that forces defenders to step out and guard him honestly his game has a serious chink in the armor.

Jokic can shoot which makes him nearly impossible to defend. Teams just drop on Sabonis and it stagnates the offense as we saw this year.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

look I love Sabonis the person. I love his reliability and effort. But until Sabonis can reliably hit an outside shot that forces defenders to step out and guard him honestly his game has a serious chink in the armor.

Jokic can shoot which makes him nearly impossible to defend. Teams just drop on Sabonis and it stagnates the offense as we saw this year.

The thing is that Sabonis had better shooting percentages this year from both 16ft-3P and from 3 (.471, .379) than Jokic (.370, .359), translating to 1.09 points per shot outside of 16 for Domas compared to only 0.99 points per shot for Jokic. Jokic just took those shots twice as often as Domas. (Literally 2.6 times as often, but if you scale for Jokic overall shooting 1.3 times as much...)

So obviously Sabonis already can hit those shots - we just need to encourage him to do it more often.

 

[sactowndog]

The thing is that Sabonis had better shooting percentages this year from both 16ft-3P and from 3 (.471, .379) than Jokic (.370, .359), translating to 1.09 points per shot outside of 16 for Domas compared to only 0.99 points per shot for Jokic. Jokic just took those shots twice as often as Domas. (Literally 2.6 times as often, but if you scale for Jokic overall shooting 1.3 times as much...)

So obviously Sabonis already can hit those shots - we just need to encourage him to do it more often.

yes except he seems to lose that ability under pressure. What are those stats in play-off or Play-in games?

 

[Tizzy Flip]

yes except he seems to lose that ability under pressure. What are those stats in play-off or Play-in games?

And Jokic gets better during the playoffs. I wouldn’t say he goes half-assed during the season, but he definitely experiments, will have long stretches where he won’t shoot 3s to get his teammates involved, and does other things to save some gas for when it matters. Anthony Davis simply could not guard him in the 4th

 

[Tizzy Flip]

yes except he seems to lose that ability under pressure. What are those stats in play-off or Play-in games?

FT shooting also need to be factored in. Jokic is nails from the line, and Domas misses way too many important FTs late in the game

 

[Capt. Factorial]

yes except he seems to lose that ability under pressure. What are those stats in play-off or Play-in games?

I don't know. Look it up.

 

[macadocious]

Man, if only our All-NBA center was the best player in the league. That would really make things easier.

 

[sactowndog]

I don't know. Look it up.

Haha. You sound like me talking to Jamal. lol.

fair enough I will.

this year Play-in
0-8 beyond 10 ft

Last years play off
10-23 beyond 10 ft
1-8 beyond 20 ft…

 

[The_Jamal]

Haha. You sound like me talking to Jamal. lol.

fair enough I will.

this year Play-in
0-8 beyond 10 ft

Last years play off
10-23 beyond 10 ft
1-8 beyond 20 ft…

Why am I supposed to care about 39 FGA over the course of 2 seasons? Especially when one of the series he was hurt?

Even if he went, 30-39, who cares? It's not indicative of anything because the sample is so small. I thought you were supposed to be the guy who brings "data' to your arguments. Sample sizes matter to the data you bring.

 

[Tizzy Flip]

Why am I supposed to care about 39 FGA over the course of 2 seasons? Especially when one of the series he was hurt?

Even if he went, 30-39, who cares? It's not indicative of anything because the sample is so small. I thought you were supposed to be the guy who brings "data' to your arguments. Sample sizes matter to the data you bring.

He’s played in a bunch of playoff games with OKC and Indy. Wonder what those stats suggest.

 

[HndsmCelt]

He’s played in a bunch of playoff games with OKC and Indy. Wonder what those stats suggest.

Mostly it suggest that he should have been played as a point center rather than either a power forward, or a traditional downlow center but we knew that from his regular season play numbers.

 

[sactowndog]

Why am I supposed to care about 39 FGA over the course of 2 seasons? Especially when one of the series he was hurt?

Even if he went, 30-39, who cares? It's not indicative of anything because the sample is so small. I thought you were supposed to be the guy who brings "data' to your arguments. Sample sizes matter to the data you bring.

well the sample size is small because he shoots so poorly he never advances.

 

[sactowndog]

He’s played in a bunch of playoff games with OKC and Indy. Wonder what those stats suggest.

he won’t look them up because he knows what it will show. Jamal is a borderline troll who rarely brings any data. But Domas’s shooting is the issue.

 

[The_Jamal]

He’s played in a bunch of playoff games with OKC and Indy. Wonder what those stats suggest.

Frankly, don't care about those either. He's an entirely new level of player in a Kings uniform and should be an All-NBA selection if voting were actually based on the 15 best players this year.

Capt's numbers actually matter because there's more meat behind it. Last year, his shooting numbers were very similar too:

10-16 feet: 21-41 for 52%
16-3pt line: 24-54 for 44%
3pt line: 31-83 for 37%

I'm also not sure where Sactowndog is getting his numbers either, but his bball reference playoff shooting splits are:

10-16 feet: 3-4 for 75%
16-3pt line: 6-14 for 42%
3pt: 1-5 for 20%

Certainly not good, but still a step above what he was trying to say his numbers were last year? May need a fact check there on Sactowndog where his splits are coming from.

But basically, I think he does have shooting talent, but he's got some sort of mental block where he doesn't want to pull (confidence?) that he has to get over. He's proven over the course of the last 2 seasons that's he's a decent shooter when he pulls. He just doesn't get any volume down.

he won’t look them up because he knows what it will show. Jamal is a borderline troll who rarely brings any data. But Domas’s shooting is the issue.

Read it.

 

[The_Jamal]

he won’t look them up because he knows what it will show. Jamal is a borderline troll who rarely brings any data. But Domas’s shooting is the issue.

Explain to me how Domas's playoff shooting numbers when he was 21-22, as a bench player, matters WHATSOEVER to the player he is now as a 26/27 year old?

You're a data guy who "understands" basketball and statistics, this should be a lay-up.

 

[Tetsujin]

Explain to me how Domas's playoff shooting numbers when he was 21-22, as a bench player, matters WHATSOEVER to the player he is now as a 26/27 year old?

You're a data guy who "understands" basketball and statistics, this should be a lay-up.

He was also playing on a team with Steven Adams and Russ on it so those numbers are going to be really really weird.

 

[The_Jamal]

He was also playing on a team with Steven Adams and Russ on it so those numbers are going to be really really weird.

He didn't play in the playoffs for OKC, I wonder if he was hurt? 2 games for 3 minutes, but he started 66 that year?

 

[Tizzy Flip]

Frankly, don't care about those either. He's an entirely new level of player in a Kings uniform and should be an All-NBA selection if voting were actually based on the 15 best players this year.

Capt's numbers actually matter because there's more meat behind it. Last year, his shooting numbers were very similar too:

10-16 feet: 21-41 for 52%
16-3pt line: 24-54 for 44%
3pt line: 31-83 for 37%

I'm also not sure where Sactowndog is getting his numbers either, but his bball reference playoff shooting splits are:

10-16 feet: 3-4 for 75%
16-3pt line: 6-14 for 42%
3pt: 1-5 for 20%

Certainly not good, but still a step above what he was trying to say his numbers were last year? May need a fact check there on "Mr. Data" where his splits are coming from.

But basically, I think he does have shooting talent, but he's got some sort of mental block where he doesn't want to pull (confidence?) that he has to get over. He's proven over the course of the last 2 seasons that's he's a decent shooter when he pulls. He just doesn't get any volume down.


Read it.

I’m curious what the mental block is. His release is on the slow side and looks a bit stiff, so maybe there’s some form stuff he just doesn’t feel comfortable with unless he’s really wide open or clock is ticking. And I don’t think it’s not him putting in the time and effort. He seems like one of the hardest working guys out there. Maybe there’s hope he can transform his scoring like Lopez did and start shooting 3-4 3s a game. He’s more than capable and with the coaches prodding him to do it, hopefully this offseason he builds that confidence to add that element to his game.

 

[The_Jamal]

I’m curious what the mental block is. His release is on the slow side and looks a bit stiff, so maybe there’s some form stuff he just doesn’t feel comfortable with unless he’s really wide open or clock is ticking. And I don’t think it’s not him putting in the time and effort. He seems like one of the hardest working guys out there. Maybe there’s hope he can transform his scoring like Lopez did and start shooting 3-4 3s a game. He’s more than capable and with the coaches prodding him to do it, hopefully this offseason he builds that confidence to add that element to his game.

I think it has something to do with how he catches the ball? At times he has no problem just catch and shooting and it more often than not goes in. But he'll have certain possessions where he's open, he'll hesitate and then just pass on the shot or miss.

Perhaps it's just not second-nature to him yet. You look at him shoot, you almost see him processing everything with the shot mechanics and thinking about it. Not all all the time, but it's just not a super natural motion yet. In contrast, you watch a dude like Keegan, when he's rolling, that thing just looks so effortless.

 

[jiimbob]

Until he signs elsewhere, I’m optimistic Monk remains a King.

Also think there are some pretty good options at 13 to improve either our wing depth or a big to replace our free agent bigs, Monte is a pretty good judge of talent. Huerter, Barnes, and Mitchell will likely remain trade pieces should a good option presents itself.

Minor tweaks and retain Monk. We’re not that far off.

 

[Tizzy Flip]

I think it has something to do with how he catches the ball? At times he has no problem just catch and shooting and it more often than not goes in. But he'll have certain possessions where he's open, he'll hesitate and then just pass on the shot or miss.

Perhaps it's just not second-nature to him yet. You look at him shoot, you almost see him processing everything with the shot mechanics and thinking about it. Not all all the time, but it's just not a super natural motion yet. In contrast, you watch a dude like Keegan, when he's rolling, that thing just looks so effortless.

Yah, I think that’s a big part. He wasn’t a 3pt shooter in college and probably wasn’t growing up. It’s a big ask to expand your game to include 3pt shots when you’ve never been asked to do it. I think he has the accuracy to do it, just needs a whole lot of work to feel comfortable with speeding up his footwork, timing, etc. Seems like he likes to take a step with his left foot and square everything up before he elevates. Think he could do all of that a split second faster and still be an accurate shooter. Shoot, maybe someone needs to tell him JV shoots more 3s than he does

 

[pdxKingsFan]

he won’t look them up because he knows what it will show. Jamal is a borderline troll who rarely brings any data. But Domas’s shooting is the issue.

nuh uh. we're not doing ad hominems.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Until he signs elsewhere, I’m optimistic Monk remains a King.

Also think there are some pretty good options at 13 to improve either our wing depth or a big to replace our free agent bigs, Monte is a pretty good judge of talent. Huerter, Barnes, and Mitchell will likely remain trade pieces should a good option presents itself.

Minor tweaks and retain Monk. We’re not that far off.

Not very optimistic but either way I think we'll be fine. Certainly Monk's impending situation had an impact on what we did with Huerter and Mitchell at the deadline. And Mitchell's trade stock seemingly improved if that's the path we must go down.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

But basically, I think he does have shooting talent, but he's got some sort of mental block where he doesn't want to pull (confidence?) that he has to get over. He's proven over the course of the last 2 seasons that's he's a decent shooter when he pulls. He just doesn't get any volume down.

So this probably points at the happy medium between the two positions here. Can Domas shoot it well enough from outside? Yes. Does he shoot it often enough? No.

But really, it's more easily fixable to convince a reluctant high-percentage shooter to shoot more often than it is to convert an eager low-percentage shooter into a good shooter, so at least we have the "right" problem.