2009-10 Kings draft position thread

A meaningless win against a team that is so far above our heads? It's like trying to pick a fight with the big guy at school, and realize that he's so much stronger he doesn't even bother responding to you. And having the whole school watch the pathetic scene play out.
The NBA already picked the fight for us, and the whole school will be watching the pathetic scene on April 13 regardless.

Like many here, I enjoy it when the Kings beat the Lakers. But the whole topic is kind of moot anyway, we will probably beat the Nets tonight even though that's WAY beyond meaningless, and we'll probably get pounded by the Lakers.
 
So do the substitution game. Aldrich gets all of Hawes's minutes. So if Hawes gets 8 rebs and 1.5 blocks and Aldrich gets 11 rebs and 2 blocks, then you get a whopping 3 rebs and .5 blocks increase. But then you lose how many points in the process? Easily 5. Probably closer to 10. Net-net, what's the diff?
You don't get a defensive big just for obvious stats, you get one to clog the lane, and drop your opponent's FG percentage. Our season average for FG% is 45.6, but when we played Orlando, it was 34.9 in the first game and 33.3 in the second. Needless to say, we easily lost both. Teams shoot more than 3% better against us that they do against Orlando, and even though we have some pretty decent individual defenders, it's not hard to see why.

In an average NBA game this year, teams attempt 82 shots, hit about 38 of them (shoot 46%), and score about 100 points (2.63 points/shot). If you drop your opponent's FG percentage from 46 to 43, on average you're neutralizing about two and a half successful shots. At over 2.6 points per shot, that's >6.5 points per game. That's why Orlando kicks butt. It's not just Howard's 18.5 points, 13.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks a game, it's also the 7 points he's costing the average opponent just by being in the way.

Spencer is averaging 10.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game.

If we get an offensively retarded center who plays good D, he only needs to score maybe 5 or 6 points a game to be a wash with Hawes. The extra rebounds and blocks will just be gravy.
 
So do the substitution game. Aldrich gets all of Hawes's minutes. So if Hawes gets 8 rebs and 1.5 blocks and Aldrich gets 11 rebs and 2 blocks, then you get a whopping 3 rebs and .5 blocks increase. But then you lose how many points in the process? Easily 5. Probably closer to 10. Net-net, what's the diff?
Hawes is averaging 6.1 rebs and 1.2 blocks... so we're up to 5 rebounds a game and .8 blocks according to your estimate for Aldrich. Also you have to take into account defensive play that doesn't show up in the block column.
 
Looks like Philly is about to wose to the Bucks, which would give us the lone 6th position. Indy wost which gets them a little further off our tail.
 
YAY! I was wrong! The lin which I didn't dare hope for came about! And Philly's about to wose, too!

The other games went as I expected, so, with only GSW left to play tonight (and almost sure to lose versus Memphis), I feel confident enough to calculate all the stats... Thanks to Philly and the Nets, we're back in 6th!

1) NJN 8-63 .113
2) MIN 14-58 .194
3) GSW 19-52 .267
4) WAS 21-49 .300
5) DET 23-48 .324
6) SAC 24-48 .333
7) PHI 25-47 .347
8) IND 26-46 .361
9-10) LAC/NYK 26-45 .366
 

Kingster

Hall of Famer
You don't get a defensive big just for obvious stats, you get one to clog the lane, and drop your opponent's FG percentage. Our season average for FG% is 45.6, but when we played Orlando, it was 34.9 in the first game and 33.3 in the second. Needless to say, we easily lost both. Teams shoot more than 3% better against us that they do against Orlando, and even though we have some pretty decent individual defenders, it's not hard to see why.

In an average NBA game this year, teams attempt 82 shots, hit about 38 of them (shoot 46%), and score about 100 points (2.63 points/shot). If you drop your opponent's FG percentage from 46 to 43, on average you're neutralizing about two and a half successful shots. At over 2.6 points per shot, that's >6.5 points per game. That's why Orlando kicks butt. It's not just Howard's 18.5 points, 13.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks a game, it's also the 7 points he's costing the average opponent just by being in the way.

Spencer is averaging 10.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game.

If we get an offensively retarded center who plays good D, he only needs to score maybe 5 or 6 points a game to be a wash with Hawes. The extra rebounds and blocks will just be gravy.
A lot of what you say is just conceptual and theoretical. But we're talking here about an actual guy - Aldrich. How much better is he going to play D than Hawes? And if by good D, you really mean a guy like Howard, then don't get your hopes up. He'll never get to 85% of what Howard is on defense. And on offense, it's a light year difference. Nobody is going to be doubling him like Howard. They'll be doing just the opposite - playing off him, and doubling other guys off of him. (Howards effect is at least felt as much on offense than defense). He's going to be a detriment on offense. You're going to get a guy who's a little better than Hawes on defense (who has been playing better on the defensive end) and a less than zero on offense. If we draft him, he'll just be a guy we use in spots. He'll be just one of the guys in the rotation, not THE guy. He's not going to going to make a large difference, just an incremental one.
 
A lot of what you say is just conceptual and theoretical.
Intentionally so. I don't feel like I've seen enough of the likely lottery picks' games this year, I'm not confident that I really know first hand who to root for. So I'm leaving it as a theoretical discussion.

But I do know *what* I want. And I'm absolutely NOT expecting any Dwight Howard clones.
 
Only one win (ahead) the Pistons for the #5 spot! Who do they play next?

And I can't believe that the Wizards have lost 13 in a row...and yet we've only won 3 more games than them? If they would have won half of those....We might been in spot #4!
 
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YAY! I was wrong! The lin which I didn't dare hope for came about! And Philly's about to wose, too!

The other games went as I expected, so, with only GSW left to play tonight (and almost sure to lose versus Memphis), I feel confident enough to calculate all the stats... Thanks to Philly and the Nets, we're back in 6th!

1) NJN 8-63 .113
2) MIN 14-58 .194
3) GSW 19-52 .267
4) WAS 21-49 .300
5) DET 23-48 .324
6) SAC 24-48 .333
7) PHI 25-47 .347
8) IND 26-46 .361
9-10) LAC/NYK 26-45 .366
Good news is Detroit is playing the Nets tomorrow- good chance for them to get a win, which would put is in a tie for 5th
 

Mr. S£im Citrus

Doryphore of KingsFans.com
Staff member
maybe.... but, I'd bet more teams have moved up in the lottery from the 6th spot than the 10th.... just saying.....
Why do we need to move up in the first place? We don't need to win the lottery. We don't need a guard, we need a center. There's no center in this draft worth a top three pick. There's no center in this draft worth a top six pick, and there are only, maybe, two centers in this draft worth a top ten pick.
 
Why do we need to move up in the first place? We don't need to win the lottery. We don't need a guard, we need a center. There's no center in this draft worth a top three pick. There's no center in this draft worth a top six pick, and there are only, maybe, two centers in this draft worth a top ten pick.
I sincerely hope you're not serious. Just because we lack the most at center, does not mean we can't improve the team by adding quality players at other positions. While we have Thompson and Landry, I would take Favors over both of them in a heartbeat. Turner can easily be put at the 2 guard with Tyreke at the 1, with Greene and Casspi at the 3. You apparently you don't like Cousins because he's without a doubt a center and worthy of a top 5 pick, and even though I would go with Favors over him, I definitely can't argue he's worth a top 3 pick in this draft.

Regardless of all that, you always want a higher pick because it has more value. Since there are these things called trades, it doesn't matter whether you think there aren't any prospects worth taking there or not, because there will be other teams that will, and we can get player(s) and/or other assets from other teams.
 
I sincerely hope you're not serious. Just because we lack the most at center, does not mean we can't improve the team by adding quality players at other positions. While we have Thompson and Landry, I would take Favors over both of them in a heartbeat. Turner can easily be put at the 2 guard with Tyreke at the 1, with Greene and Casspi at the 3. You apparently you don't like Cousins because he's without a doubt a center and worthy of a top 5 pick, and even though I would go with Favors over him, I definitely can't argue he's worth a top 3 pick in this draft.

Regardless of all that, you always want a higher pick because it has more value. Since there are these things called trades, it doesn't matter whether you think there aren't any prospects worth taking there or not, because there will be other teams that will, and we can get player(s) and/or other assets from other teams.


100% agree. I also think making proclamations like "no center is worth a top 3 pick" is short sighted. I don't follow college ball enough to tell Wall from Adam, but I've seen enough drafts to know that things never turn out the way convential wisdom holds it should or will. If things were that predictable, Rubio would be in the states and Emeka Okafor would be an MVP candidate. If there is a good center in this draft, someone will reach for him. I trust Petrie's judge of talent, and would rather he have a wider pool of players to pick from.
 
100% agree. I also think making proclamations like "no center is worth a top 3 pick" is short sighted. I don't follow college ball enough to tell Wall from Adam, but I've seen enough drafts to know that things never turn out the way convential wisdom holds it should or will. If things were that predictable, Rubio would be in the states and Emeka Okafor would be an MVP candidate. If there is a good center in this draft, someone will reach for him. I trust Petrie's judge of talent, and would rather he have a wider pool of players to pick from.

let's go kings!!



 
Why do we need to move up in the first place? We don't need to win the lottery. We don't need a guard, we need a center. There's no center in this draft worth a top three pick. There's no center in this draft worth a top six pick, and there are only, maybe, two centers in this draft worth a top ten pick.
Yes we need a killer big... but how do you think a back court of Evans and Turner would look?. then maybe a big in FA or sign and trade? ...OR... how bout we trade down and get a little more at the same time we get that outside the top 10 big you like anyway?

I can have hope in Petrie's draft rep, but come pick time I prefer all or most of his considerations are still on the table.... It's not like we're making a playoff push... an extra 2 wins does nothing positive long term .. seriously...
 

Mr. S£im Citrus

Doryphore of KingsFans.com
Staff member
You misunderstand me. I don't care about losses, but I don't care about the draft, either, and I don't grok the glee of trying to get a high draft pick when the only guy thought to be a can't-miss prospect plays the same position as our best player now.

DeMarcus Cousins? I'm not convinced he's an NBA center.
 
You misunderstand me. I don't care about losses, but I don't care about the draft, either, and I don't grok the glee of trying to get a high draft pick when the only guy thought to be a can't-miss prospect plays the same position as our best player now.

DeMarcus Cousins? I'm not convinced he's an NBA center.
Some people didn't think that Dwight Howard was an NBA center either ;)
 
I disagree with slims statement that cousins isn't a center. But I think what he's trying to say is that he doesn't think we should reach for needs at this point and thinks we should go for a star quality player or BPA. if it was up to me, I'd take cousins though.
 
You misunderstand me. I don't care about losses, but I don't care about the draft, either, and I don't grok the glee of trying to get a high draft pick when the only guy thought to be a can't-miss prospect plays the same position as our best player now.

DeMarcus Cousins? I'm not convinced he's an NBA center.
Even if you don't care about any prospects that aren't "can't miss" (which is a ridiculous standard since there have been plenty of can't misses that have missed, and Tyreke certainly wasn't considered a can't miss) other teams do care about them, which is why a higher draft position is always better than a lower one. Your logic suggests that you don't even consider trading picks a possibility, yet you care so much about whether a player is worthy to take at a certain pick. If you aren't going to trade a pick, then what is the point of caring about whether or not they are worthy of that draft position, if they're truly the best available player for your team? If you wouldn't consider trading a pick, then the higher pick is still better to have just by that fact that more players are available at that pick.

Would you really think that the Kings wouldn't be any better off having Wall to trade or keep than if they picked some center prospect like Whiteside/Aldrich with the 10th pick? Because that's what your logic suggests.

Cousins is 6'11 270 and an average at best athlete. If he's not an NBA center, then he's not an NBA player, because he won't bode any better at PF.

If what you're really trying to say is that you don't care about the draft, then I hope you don't expect anyone to take your opinion on the Kings draft position or the prospects in the draft with any credibility.
 
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You misunderstand me. I don't care about losses, but I don't care about the draft, either, and I don't grok the glee of trying to get a high draft pick when the only guy thought to be a can't-miss prospect plays the same position as our best player now.

DeMarcus Cousins? I'm not convinced he's an NBA center.
At this point in time I'd take Evan Turner over Wall as Turner would fit perfectly at the 2 spot next to Tyreke. I don't think Turner will last past the 2nd pick, and he could possibly go 1st.

As far as Cousins I'd take him at 3 in a heartbeat. I've watched him play numerous times and he's going to be a big 270 pound load in the paint who is a fantastic rebounder and plays with the mean-streak you want from a Center.

I wish I could make everyone who has doubts about Cousins watch the Kentucky/Tennessee game which took place a few weeks ago. Cousins was just a monster, and solidified my choice for top big man with that performance.

I do agree with one point though. After the big four (Wall, Turner, Cousins, Favors) there isn't another sure-fire potential all-star level talent which fits for the Kings.

So even if you end up with the 8th pick in the draft you still might be able to get the guy you want. To me, the next two guys I'd go for would be Wes Johnson and then Cole Aldrich.

Wes Johnson, I've seen play a lot, and I really like, but he doesn't have the ball-handling skills we'd need if we tried him at the 2, and I think a trade would have to be made if we picked him up as we don't need him, Donte, and Casspi. (I'd probably put him ahead of both Donte and Casspi, if he can show he's got good defensive chops. Donte gets the edge for me, until Wes can show good man defense)

As far as Aldrich goes, I have to say that I've watched him play a few times and have never walked away overly impressed. He does bring all the things we say we need, (Man Defense & Rebounding) along with decent shot-blocking and athleticism. So he won't be the 'sexiest' choice, but he could turn out to be the absolute best fit for meeting this team's needs.

After those six guys my next two would be Udoh and Whiteside, and both would definitely be available in the top 10. So I guess I want a pick with-in the top 6. And if that doesn't happen, then the guys I'd be most interested in will still be available regardless of where we pick.

One final note. If we pick Monroe I'll be physically ill. I don't care how skilled he is and how much improvement he showed in his rebounding this year. I want nothing to do with him.
And as much as he seems to be a typical Petrie pick, I really get the feeling that Petrie is working towards a tough, physical type of team, and will stay far away from Monroe as well.
 
Why do we need to move up in the first place? We don't need to win the lottery. We don't need a guard, we need a center. There's no center in this draft worth a top three pick. There's no center in this draft worth a top six pick, and there are only, maybe, two centers in this draft worth a top ten pick.
Sig material here. :D