Louisville could get upset by LSU before the winner would meet Baylor. Maryland is riding a high, so I'll stick with them for the Raleigh bracket.
If you can't defend, it doesn't matter how "high" you're riding. You won't get out of a region where the other top four seeds CAN defend. The NCAAs test the mettle of the participants by purposefully grouping teams with contrasting styles early on. A "run-and-gun" team will surely face a "slow and plodding/methodical" or "press and defend" team before the regional finals. If you slip up just once, you could be going home.
Louisville can defend, so I like their chances of getting out of Raleigh more so than Maryland's. Just because LSU plays on its home court doesn't mean it's going to advance even past the 1st round (which would kill your argument). Rutgers, UNC, and even Tennessee have a history of beating teams on their home court in the early rounds. It's not exactly unheard of. You have Stanford moving on even though they might have to face San Diego State on its home floor (and please don't say that Stanford would definitely win that game because we can all come up with examples of Stanford's NCAA shortcomings).
When it's all said and done, though, I expect to see Baylor in the Final Four from that region. Great coach, good athletes, strong defense, and a nice chip on their shoulders after what happened to them (1) the last time they were in Raleigh and (2) the last time they played Maryland.