2010. Start the Bidding

[Capt. Factorial]

I was looking at salarys in 2010, and in order to have serious cap space, some decisions will have to be made. Do we resign Garcia, and if so for how much. Do we keep Williams through that year, and do we Keep Douby. Here's a list of players that were probably going to keep as we look at it right now.

Martin - $11,100,005.00
Hawes - $ 2,974,320.00
Udrih - $ 6,478,000.00
Thompson- $ 2,178,000.00 Total- $29,655,165.00
Salmons- $ 5,808,000.00
Greene - $ 1,116,840.00

If kept, you would have to add these salaries into the mix.

Williams - $ 5,705,019.00
Douby - $ 3,133,837.00 Total- $8,838,856.00

If added to the orginal total. Total- $38,494,402.00

Then you have the unknowns.

1st round pick 2009 ( our own ) My guess $3,200,000.00 ( in top ten )
1st round pick 2009 ( Houstons ) My guess $1,300,000.00( in bottom 20)
1st round pick 2010 ( our own ) My guess $3,000,000.00( 12 to 19th )
Garcia's new contract, if tendered. My guess $7,000,000.00

Those contract would total up to $14,500,000.00. When added to the rest of the contracts they total. $52,994,402.00.

The cap this year was just under 59 million. It been going at at a rate of just under 2 mil a year. So by 2010, it should be around $61,500,000.00. So as you can see. For us to have significant cap space, some one has to go. As a matter of fact, more than one has to go.

If you let Williams and Douby go, that would bring the total back down to $44,155,546.00. Let Salmons go and you bring it down to $38,347,546.00. I'm going on memory, but I believe that Salmons has an early release option for that year. Anyway, some hard choices are going to have to be made for us to have enough cap space to make a big move in the market.

You may be a bit high on some of the estimated numbers. First, I don't really think Garcia's going to command $7M. I could be wrong, but I figure he goes for closer to $5M in a 4-5 year deal, especially if we extend him midseason. His qualifying offer is under $3M and it would take somebody throwing their full MLE at him to get near $7M...I don't know. Seems high.

You seem to be inflating the rookie scale for the 2010 pick a bit as well. Our 2010 pick (in 12th-19th range, as per your estimate) would definitely be under $3M - Thompson at 12 this year is under $2M. So knock $1M off that, maybe more.

Dropping $2M from Garcia's (presumed) contract and $1M off the 2010 pick and we're looking at basically $50M even, while keeping Douby and Williams (at qualifying offer pricing) and not trading Salmons or having him opt out.

On top of that, your salary cap estimates might be a bit off. Over the past two years the salary cap has increased a bit over $5.5M total. If we simply expect that to hold constant, the cap in summer 2010 will be $64M, $2.5M higher than your estimate.

All told, that puts us an esitmated $14M under the cap. Not enough for a huge FA. But Douby and Williams alone are holding up just under $9M - don't tender them a qualifying offer (and really, would we given our current expectations?) and we're up to $23M worth of space. That's plenty enough for a marquee free agent if we can get one to come to Cowtown. We just have to hope that Geoff passes on spending the MLE next summer...

 

[bajaden]

You may be a bit high on some of the estimated numbers. First, I don't really think Garcia's going to command $7M. I could be wrong, but I figure he goes for closer to $5M in a 4-5 year deal, especially if we extend him midseason. His qualifying offer is under $3M and it would take somebody throwing their full MLE at him to get near $7M...I don't know. Seems high.

You seem to be inflating the rookie scale for the 2010 pick a bit as well. Our 2010 pick (in 12th-19th range, as per your estimate) would definitely be under $3M - Thompson at 12 this year is under $2M. So knock $1M off that, maybe more.

Dropping $2M from Garcia's (presumed) contract and $1M off the 2010 pick and we're looking at basically $50M even, while keeping Douby and Williams (at qualifying offer pricing) and not trading Salmons or having him opt out.

On top of that, your salary cap estimates might be a bit off. Over the past two years the salary cap has increased a bit over $5.5M total. If we simply expect that to hold constant, the cap in summer 2010 will be $64M, $2.5M higher than your estimate.

All told, that puts us an esitmated $14M under the cap. Not enough for a huge FA. But Douby and Williams alone are holding up just under $9M - don't tender them a qualifying offer (and really, would we given our current expectations?) and we're up to $23M worth of space. That's plenty enough for a marquee free agent if we can get one to come to Cowtown. We just have to hope that Geoff passes on spending the MLE next summer...

I was trying to error on the high side with my guestimates on salary, and on the low side with the cap. I figured whichever way I went, someone would find fault with it. However, I don't disagree with your estmates, and they are probably closer to reality.

However you cut it though, I think you have to let Douby and Williams walk to have the flexability you need to make a serious run at someone with star status.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Don't forget we can always go with Door #2 and trade our expiring contracts for that year to teams who think they can actually sign a big name free agent. If Petrie doesn't think we can actually get one of the top 5-6 impact players, we could facilitate another team getting below the cap and pick up more picks and young players for our effort. Just an alternate scenario we have to consider.

 

[NME]

Don't forget we can always go with Door #2 and trade our expiring contracts for that year to teams who think they can actually sign a big name free agent. If Petrie doesn't think we can actually get one of the top 5-6 impact players, we could facilitate another team getting below the cap and pick up more picks and young players for our effort. Just an alternate scenario we have to consider.

Something like that may be more realistic, or facilitating a three-way trade, or a deal with a player that has base-year issues, etc. Assuming we can clear enough space for a star level free agent, is our rebuild going to be at a point to make that kind of move? I have high hopes for our youngsters, but are we really going to be at a point in two years where adding a star player that's probably 30-ish is going to be the finishing touch to a contender, both from our point of view and from that of the player we're trying to attract?

It could be that the best move is to be creative in continuing to accumulate talent in a similar age range to our young core that can grow together. It would also be nice to have significant space below the luxury tax to retain our guys when they blossom into the All-Star calibar players we hope they become.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I was trying to error on the high side with my guestimates on salary, and on the low side with the cap. I figured whichever way I went, someone would find fault with it. However, I don't disagree with your estmates, and they are probably closer to reality.

However you cut it though, I think you have to let Douby and Williams walk to have the flexability you need to make a serious run at someone with star status.

I wouldn't exactly call it "finding fault"! I usually like to err on the conservative side as well, I guess I just didn't feel the need to be quite so conservative there.

I agree that to make a serious run at a star FA, with your numbers or mine, we have to let Williams at the very least, and probably Douby, walk. I can live with that.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

Something like that may be more realistic, or facilitating a three-way trade, or a deal with a player that has base-year issues, etc. Assuming we can clear enough space for a star level free agent, is our rebuild going to be at a point to make that kind of move? I have high hopes for our youngsters, but are we really going to be at a point in two years where adding a star player that's probably 30-ish is going to be the finishing touch to a contender, both from our point of view and from that of the player we're trying to attract?

It could be that the best move is to be creative in continuing to accumulate talent in a similar age range to our young core that can grow together. It would also be nice to have significant space below the luxury tax to retain our guys when they blossom into the All-Star calibar players we hope they become.

Yeah, if we could get a young star, it would be ideal, but to quasi-quote Rick Patino, LeBron James isn't coming through that door. Dwayne Wade isn't coming through that door. We may need to survey other options and getting 2-3 draftpicks and young chips for our expirings might bring the value to move up in the draft or put together a bigger trade for a potential star.

 

[SacKings4Life21]

Don't you guys think that in our situation it far more likely to grab an allstar player through trading our expriring contracts to a team who could actually could be a big player in free agency? Cow town is not for the luxiourious stars. I think that they would have to truly be dedicated to winning to come here. I see our future as bright and hope GP can grab us something. Arenas is going to fade out of favor in Wash; just as an example, what if we offered some expirings to Wash so they could be more of a player and then we got our star? Just an example, not saying I want it or it will happen. I just see that as the more likely scenario.

 

[ForlornKing]

Don't you guys think that in our situation it far more likely to grab an allstar player through trading our expriring contracts to a team who could actually could be a big player in free agency? Cow town is not for the luxiourious stars. I think that they would have to truly be dedicated to winning to come here. I see our future as bright and hope GP can grab us something. Arenas is going to fade out of favor in Wash; just as an example, what if we offered some expirings to Wash so they could be more of a player and then we got our star? Just an example, not saying I want it or it will happen. I just see that as the more likely scenario.

quesiton: have you ever been to sacramento?

 

[bajaden]

Don't you guys think that in our situation it far more likely to grab an allstar player through trading our expriring contracts to a team who could actually could be a big player in free agency? Cow town is not for the luxiourious stars. I think that they would have to truly be dedicated to winning to come here. I see our future as bright and hope GP can grab us something. Arenas is going to fade out of favor in Wash; just as an example, what if we offered some expirings to Wash so they could be more of a player and then we got our star? Just an example, not saying I want it or it will happen. I just see that as the more likely scenario.

Don't under estimate the appeal of Sacramento. The cowtown moniker comes from the SF crowd, and goes back quite a few years, when they were forced to pass through on thier way to Tahoe. Having grown up in St. Louis and having been to such luxurious places as Cleveland, Indy, Detroit, and Philly, etc. Trust me, Sacramento is a very good place to live, and you couldn't pay me to live in any of those other places.

As far as night life. Its not that bad, and when you've got The City down the road and Tahoe up the road, and year round golf, I don't think thats the problem. I think it has more to do with, obviously, the money, and being competitive. I think the Maloof's, in of themselves, are an attraction to players. When you stop and think about it, there are a lot of teams that are on the same level as Sacramento, when you compare markets.

Portland, Memphis, San Antonio, Charlotte, Indy. I haven't been to Orlando for a long time, but it wasn't great shakes the last time I was there. Besides, I don't like humidity and alligators. Got to admit. I grew up in a big city. So I'm biased. But that aside, I don't think the fact that were Sacramento really enters the equation.

 

[mojorizen7]

Some of those guys won't exactly be spring chickens in 2010.

Yeah that.

 

[upinsmoke]

What kind of kings fan has the celtics as their avatar and talks trash about Sacra? Get real.

 

[Spike]

Don't under estimate the appeal of Sacramento. The cowtown moniker comes from the SF crowd, and goes back quite a few years, when they were forced to pass through on thier way to Tahoe. Having grown up in St. Louis and having been to such luxurious places as Cleveland, Indy, Detroit, and Philly, etc. Trust me, Sacramento is a very good place to live, and you couldn't pay me to live in any of those other places.

Portland, Memphis, San Antonio, Charlotte, Indy. I haven't been to Orlando for a long time, but it wasn't great shakes the last time I was there. Besides, I don't like humidity and alligators. Got to admit. I grew up in a big city. So I'm biased. But that aside, I don't think the fact that were Sacramento really enters the equation.

Whoah, whoah, whoah. Careful what you say about Cleveland - it IS known as the mistake by the lake.

FTR, I've been to all of the places you have mentioned, and I agree with your assessment. Sacramento really is a nice place. Memphis gives it a run, but that's mostly due to food and nightlife. Indy is a great sports town. Philly...ugh.

 

[yanon]

I think it all depends on how the Kings' new players

progress in the next two years. If Hawes averages a 15/8 per game, Thompson averages a 16/8 per game, Greene averages a 15/6 per game, Martin continues to improve his game, and the Kings as a whole play decent defense, then they are indeed one marquee player away from becoming a legit title contender. If the aforementioned materialized, the Kings would be regard as an up-and-coming team, marquee free agents would consider the Kings as an ideal choice behind NYC, LA, and Chicago (with so many marquee free agents available in 2010, at least one will sign with the Kings). However, if the young players failed to make significant progress, then the Kings should just trade expiring contracts for more draft picks.

Sheldon Williams and Douby are a dime a dozen talent, they shouldn't be resigned if the Kings are serious about signing a marquee free agent.

 

[bajaden]

Whoah, whoah, whoah. Careful what you say about Cleveland - it IS known as the mistake by the lake.

FTR, I've been to all of the places you have mentioned, and I agree with your assessment. Sacramento really is a nice place. Memphis gives it a run, but that's mostly due to food and nightlife. Indy is a great sports town. Philly...ugh.

A whole bunch of us would drive up to Indy for the Indy time trials every year. It was a blast. We'd camp out in a drive in theator. I could'nt get tickets or for that matter, afford tickets to the big show, but the time trials were fun.

 

[bajaden]

I find it interesting that Salmons has an early termination option in his contract for the 2010/2011 year. I noticed that SAR also has one for the 2009/2010 year. I'm assuming that the early termination option is a team option, but I'm not sure. If anyone ( Capt. Fact ) knows exactly what these options are, please enlighten us.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I find it interesting that Salmons has an early termination option in his contract for the 2010/2011 year. I noticed that SAR also has one for the 2009/2010 year. I'm assuming that the early termination option is a team option, but I'm not sure. If anyone ( Capt. Fact ) knows exactly what these options are, please enlighten us.

I don't think I actually know anymore than the rest of y'all, I just get impulsive and look it up!

I believe ETOs are by definition player options. I hadn't been aware of an option for either Salmons or Shareef until I was pointed to ShamSports. Neither Hoopshype nor Patricia Bender suggest that. Anyway, either it doesn't exist or it's a player option. In Shareef's case, these are the same thing...unless the contract language in the player option might give him reason NOT to retire, if that's the way he's leaning. In Salmons' case, it's entirely possible at this point that he might opt out of his final year and try to get a slightly bigger deal.

 

[bajaden]

I don't think I actually know anymore than the rest of y'all, I just get impulsive and look it up!

I believe ETOs are by definition player options. I hadn't been aware of an option for either Salmons or Shareef until I was pointed to ShamSports. Neither Hoopshype nor Patricia Bender suggest that. Anyway, either it doesn't exist or it's a player option. In Shareef's case, these are the same thing...unless the contract language in the player option might give him reason NOT to retire, if that's the way he's leaning. In Salmons' case, it's entirely possible at this point that he might opt out of his final year and try to get a slightly bigger deal.

I got my info from Hoopsworld, on they're salary page. I'll go to Patricia's and check on the ETO.

 

[bajaden]

Well once again your right Capt. All ETO's are players options. Except that they're not really player options, they're early termination options. To be honest, the more I read, the more confusing it became. I mean the burning question to me was, if you have player options, which is for the players, then why have Early termination options, which are also for the players.

Well, I won't bore you with all the details, most of which are hard to understand anyway, but to simplifly, it has to do with the type of contract, by length, and by either increasing or decreasing salary. Any desire for more info than that, go to Patricia's website and enjoy.

 

[BawLa]

Well once again your right Capt. All ETO's are players options. Except that they're not really player options, they're early termination options. To be honest, the more I read, the more confusing it became. I mean the burning question to me was, if you have player options, which is for the players, then why have Early termination options, which are also for the players.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think player options are for the remaining year of a player's contract, whereas an ETO could be right in the middle of the contract.

 

[SacKings4Life21]

quesiton: have you ever been to sacramento?

Born and raised in stockton. There is reasons NBA players complain about being there... its a hole of boredom.

 

[bajaden]

Born and raised in stockton. There is reasons NBA players complain about being there... its a hole of boredom.

And which NBA players are those? Most of the players I know of that complained, were from the pre-winning era. After the team rose to prominence, I don't recall any NBA player complaining about Sacramento. As a matter of fact, many of them have kept they're house here, and some have retired here. Now Stockton, thats another matter. Its main redeeming feature is the highway running through it. Hey, alls fair in love and war.

 

[Warhawk]

Now Stockton, thats another matter. Its main redeeming feature is the highway running through it. Hey, alls fair in love and war.

Well, they did have the 49ers summer camps for a while.

And the Asparagus Festival, if you like that sort of stuff.

Um, hold on, I'm sure there is more.....OK, maybe not.

 

[bajaden]

Well, they did have the 49ers summer camps for a while.

And the Asparagus Festival, if you like that sort of stuff.

Um, hold on, I'm sure there is more.....OK, maybe not.

Man, how could I forget the Asparagus festival. One of my favorites, along with the wheat germ festival.

 

[SacKings4Life21]

Well I hope you guys are right. Would love to see a big name in sac. And yes I have tried to get a word into terroirst organizatins to destroy stockton. But to many of thier relatives live there.