New moon, new winning streak?
- Thread starter VF21
- Start date
whatever winning streak we're thinking the kings will get on will be followed by another 4 or 5 losses straight. im not excited about seeing the game tonight. the end of the season gets unbearingly boring. especially if you're not making the playoffs.
play the youth? maybe, but here's another thing. this team isnt as young as we all make it out to be. if you're in the NBA you reach full potential no later than the age 25 or 26. here are the kids' ages as of december 31, 2008
garcia 27
douby 24
martin 25
salmons 29
beno 26
spencer 20
shelden 25
the only players that really have room to grow and get better will be spencer, douby and maybe williams. everyone else..beno, martin, salmons, etc have pretty much reached their full potential. if im theus i would be looking at spencer, douby and williams. chances are no one else on that list will get any better.
play the youth? maybe, but here's another thing. this team isnt as young as we all make it out to be. if you're in the NBA you reach full potential no later than the age 25 or 26. here are the kids' ages as of december 31, 2008
garcia 27
douby 24
martin 25
salmons 29
beno 26
spencer 20
shelden 25
the only players that really have room to grow and get better will be spencer, douby and maybe williams. everyone else..beno, martin, salmons, etc have pretty much reached their full potential. if im theus i would be looking at spencer, douby and williams. chances are no one else on that list will get any better.
Last edited:
I don't agree, I think every player on that list can drastically improve (except maybe Salmons). I really see Hawes, Douby, Williams and Beno dramatically improving, and I don't think that Martin or Garcia have reached their peeks. When you see our players who are 20-25 (and taking into consideration how much they have played) not only are they young, they still have a HUGE upside. I agree there are some "vets" who are 28 and have reached or passed their primes, but our 27 and 28 year old players are not old in NBA years.
27/28 isnt old, but how much better can you really get once you hit your mid or late 20's? NBA guards usually retire in their early or mid 30's. and thats after they start declining physically. i can look at the players we have and can tell you that beno will not be better than tony parker, garcia will never be the next doug christie and martin will keep playing like peja. we havent had enough time to evaluate shelden, spencer and douby. they could become very explosive players. i think we should get a better look at those 3 first
I think most of his post was pretty objective. For all practical purposes guards typically top in ability at about 26 or maybe 27 years of age. That's not to say they go striaght downhill from there, but they just don't get any better. They don't become more skilled from that point on.
There are exceptions of course. Kobe has gotten better in his late 20's and Nash getting better in his early 30s as a PG is amazing. But those are the truly amazing guys. The exceptions.
And he argued that Shelden Williams actually has some room to improve because he's a big guy and Hawes is a big guy and still 19, so he said to concentrate most on developing those guys. I don't think there's anything wrong with what he said.
There are exceptions of course. Kobe has gotten better in his late 20's and Nash getting better in his early 30s as a PG is amazing. But those are the truly amazing guys. The exceptions.
And he argued that Shelden Williams actually has some room to improve because he's a big guy and Hawes is a big guy and still 19, so he said to concentrate most on developing those guys. I don't think there's anything wrong with what he said.
I think the whole reaching your peak and then declining is way overstated in the NBA. Take Miller for example. During the 2006-2007 season all the experts claimed that he had run out of fuel and his peak was way over and only decline could follow. Now in the 2007-2008 Miller is arguably playing the best ball of his career. I think the only element that can force a peak and then a decline is major injury to players (as in the case of Webber).
Some players like Mikki Moore just continually get better even as they put on the years. I'm not saying that he's an amazing player by any stretch of the imagination, but he has without a doubt gotten better every year up to this point.
People need to stop looking at the ages of players and focus more on the health of those players. Shaq's not bad because of his age, he's bad because his body is finally giving out after being beat up for so many years.
Players will have good years (typically because of the system they are in) and then can have bad years (typically because of injury, personal reasons, or a bad fit for a system). Good players just seem to have more good years than bad ones.
Some players like Mikki Moore just continually get better even as they put on the years. I'm not saying that he's an amazing player by any stretch of the imagination, but he has without a doubt gotten better every year up to this point.
People need to stop looking at the ages of players and focus more on the health of those players. Shaq's not bad because of his age, he's bad because his body is finally giving out after being beat up for so many years.
Players will have good years (typically because of the system they are in) and then can have bad years (typically because of injury, personal reasons, or a bad fit for a system). Good players just seem to have more good years than bad ones.
Miller has had seasons as good or slightly better than this one in the past. The point is, he's not a better player now than he was in 2003-2004, for example. Doesn't mean he's garbage and can't contribute. Just means that at around 2003-2004, he wasn't going to get better than that. And he never did.
A player usually doesn't decline when he's 26-27 (for a guard anyways), but he's also unlikely to get better skillwise. He will have pretty much reached the peak of his "potential" and the hope is that he can then sustain that level of play for at least another 4-5 years.
A player usually doesn't decline when he's 26-27 (for a guard anyways), but he's also unlikely to get better skillwise. He will have pretty much reached the peak of his "potential" and the hope is that he can then sustain that level of play for at least another 4-5 years.
Age is not as important as cummulative NBA minutes played. A player needs time to figure out the league, and that takes PT. That's why in 3 years Spencer Hawes will be well ahead of a NBA rookie age of 22 who stayed 4 years in college. That's also why Beno-Draino can do more than he has already shown and Douby cannot be called a total bust, just yet.
You can definitely extrapolate based on early returns, though. I try to look at an overall skill level when I analyze a player, and not just stats. If you look at Beno-Draino, his game has no holes. He can take it to the hole, draw fouls, has a great mid range shot, a stop on the dime jumper, and a decent 3-point stroke. He is also a great ball handler and good passer. His effort defensively is solid. As a full-time starter, I can see him averaging 18 points and 10 assists. There is no reason not to give him a $30 million dollar, 5 year deal.
Now take Douby on the other hand, and you have to wonder. He has definitely regressed this year, and last year was no prize. He lofts a lot of low percentage shots when he drives to the hoop, gets his shot blocked. He is a below average ball handler and passer. At his size he cannot stay in the league if he cannot be trusted with the ball. I thought he could be a Jason Terry type player, but his skill level has disappointed. Obviously Theus is not impressed when Anthony No Game Johnson plays ahead of him.
You can definitely extrapolate based on early returns, though. I try to look at an overall skill level when I analyze a player, and not just stats. If you look at Beno-Draino, his game has no holes. He can take it to the hole, draw fouls, has a great mid range shot, a stop on the dime jumper, and a decent 3-point stroke. He is also a great ball handler and good passer. His effort defensively is solid. As a full-time starter, I can see him averaging 18 points and 10 assists. There is no reason not to give him a $30 million dollar, 5 year deal.
Now take Douby on the other hand, and you have to wonder. He has definitely regressed this year, and last year was no prize. He lofts a lot of low percentage shots when he drives to the hoop, gets his shot blocked. He is a below average ball handler and passer. At his size he cannot stay in the league if he cannot be trusted with the ball. I thought he could be a Jason Terry type player, but his skill level has disappointed. Obviously Theus is not impressed when Anthony No Game Johnson plays ahead of him.
