ok, first on the idea that Petrie's first go-around was about luck. Uh, no. When you add Kevin Martin to the equation and factor in where he has been drafting, his draft record is extremely good to stellar (JWill set the tone for the winning era, even if there were better players around, Hedo, Peja...). Not San Antonio-level good with Tony Parker and Manu, but right up there at the top. That's not an accident. Then when you consider the string of incredible deals he pulled off to build those teams (Mitch for CWebb, Corliss for Christie, JWill for Bibby, Pollard and Hedo for Brad Miller), the savvy free agent signings (not just Vlade but Bobby, Pollard, Barry, Jim Jackson)... I'm sorry, one trade maybe you can consider luck, but that was continued excellence, with only one big misstep (the Nick Anderson era). I mean, the very idea that all of that was luck is ludicrous.
That said.
Right now I think there are a couple of problems -- one is the Maloofs constraining him, which is well-documented and not even worth discussing that much. It's a problem, hopefully it's over but we'll see.
The other problem I think he's facing is the Billy Beane problem. He's been so good for so long that people are scared to deal with him for fear of being screwed like all the other people who have dealt with Petrie. I don't know what happens behind closed doors, but I'm guessing that the minute someone gets wind that Petrie is interested in a player the opposing GM says, "Huh. Maybe I should take another look at this guy."
So to build another contending team is not going to be as easy as the first time around, and Petrie's going to have to be better than he was before. With the Maloofs getting in the way, it's that much harder.
I'm a huge Petrie fan, obviously, but it's going to be tough. I think the jury is out about whether he can do it again. At the same time, there aren't too many people I'd trust more to be GM, and so in Petrie I trust.