Potential Free agent/trade/sign tracker
- Thread starter iowamcnabb
- Start date
Yeah, short-term, you hold the top 7 (starters+Keon/DC) and keep Lyles unless it's to facilitate a bigger Huerter+ trade and you need his salary. Not interested in a side-grade trade with Lyles.
Long-term, you see what happens with Fox this summer, how DC develops before you make your major move to roster balance.
Long-term, you see what happens with Fox this summer, how DC develops before you make your major move to roster balance.
I’m of the view that the Kings starting lineup is set. And that all De’Aaron Fox trade discussions are hella dumb (if Miami calls offering Bam I wouldn’t hang up though).
So I think the Kings are looking for size coming off the bench that could be acquired for Kevin Huerter and smaller pieces. My list is Beef Stew, Time Lord, and Kuzma. They all have issues - and all are in fairly crummy situations currently. But I don’t think Cam Johnson is a realistic target (not spending multiple first round picks when available playing time is around 20 minutes/game). Personally, my favorite for the Kings is Beef Stew - because I think they still need an enforcer - plus he spreads the floor better than the other 2.
So I think the Kings are looking for size coming off the bench that could be acquired for Kevin Huerter and smaller pieces. My list is Beef Stew, Time Lord, and Kuzma. They all have issues - and all are in fairly crummy situations currently. But I don’t think Cam Johnson is a realistic target (not spending multiple first round picks when available playing time is around 20 minutes/game). Personally, my favorite for the Kings is Beef Stew - because I think they still need an enforcer - plus he spreads the floor better than the other 2.
Well if Monk is in fact the "heart of the team," that puts us in a tough spot considering our team is much better when our franchise player has Keon Ellis next to him. Below are the various On/Off lineup stats between Monk and Ellis:
Now as I have said before, these NETRATING stats don't take into account variables like (strength of the opponent, strength of your teammates, etc.), so let's look at Monk and Ellis' advanced impact stats that do attempt to take those variables into consideration...
VPM: Monk = 128th / Ellis = 62nd
EPM: Monk = 132nd / Ellis = 79th
LEBRON: Monk = 71st / Ellis = 107th
DARKO: Monk = 203rd / Ellis = 98th
...and averaging the ranks across those 4 metrics, it comes out to...
AVG RANK: Monk = 134th / Ellis = 87th
All the numbers I look at suggest that...
I'm not necessarily saying we need to trade Monk at this trade deadline. I think it's logical to see how Carter continues to come along, but if he continues to develop the way I think he will and Ellis continues to prove he is the better statistical fit with Fox, I think a future Monk trade makes a lot of sense.
Now your answer may be "trade Fox, not Monk," but Fox is a lot better in those advanced impact stats than Monk (& Ellis)...
VPM: Monk = 128th / Ellis = 62nd / Fox = 38th
EPM: Monk = 132nd / Ellis = 79th / Fox = 37th
LEBRON: Monk = 71st / Ellis = 107th / Fox = 39th
DARKO: Monk = 203rd / Ellis = 98th / Fox = 13th
...and averaging the ranks across those 4 metrics, it comes out to...
AVG RANK: Monk = 134th / Ellis = 87th / Fox = 32nd
I just feel the writing may be on the wall somewhat since I think our most optimal guard rotation going forward will be Fox, Ellis, and Carter.
- +3.7 NETRTG = ON COURT: Monk & Fox / OFF COURT: Ellis & Carter
- +1.2 NETRTG = ON COURT: Monk, Fox, & Sabonis / OFF COURT: Ellis & Carter
- +3.1 NETRTG = ON COURT: Monk, Fox, Sabonis, & Murray / OFF COURT: Ellis & Carter
- -1.9 NETRTG = ON COURT: Monk, Fox, Sabonis, & DeRozan / OFF COURT: Ellis & Carter
- -2.0 NETRTG = ON COURT: Monk, Fox, Sabonis, DeRozan, & Murray / OFF COURT: Ellis & Carter
- +12.9 NETRTG = ON COURT: Ellis & Fox / OFF COURT: Monk & Carter
- +12.8 NETRTG = ON COURT: Ellis, Fox, & Sabonis / OFF COURT: Monk & Carter
- +7.2 NETRTG = ON COURT: Ellis, Fox, Sabonis, & Murray / OFF COURT: Monk & Carter
- +26.8 NETRTG = ON COURT: Ellis, Fox, Sabonis, & DeRozan / OFF COURT: Monk & Carter
- +19.8 NETRTG = ON COURT: Ellis, Fox, Sabonis, DeRozan, &Murray / OFF COURT: Monk & Carter
Now as I have said before, these NETRATING stats don't take into account variables like (strength of the opponent, strength of your teammates, etc.), so let's look at Monk and Ellis' advanced impact stats that do attempt to take those variables into consideration...
VPM: Monk = 128th / Ellis = 62nd
EPM: Monk = 132nd / Ellis = 79th
LEBRON: Monk = 71st / Ellis = 107th
DARKO: Monk = 203rd / Ellis = 98th
...and averaging the ranks across those 4 metrics, it comes out to...
AVG RANK: Monk = 134th / Ellis = 87th
All the numbers I look at suggest that...
- Ellis should be starting next to Fox
- Ellis should be closing games out next to Fox
- We're statistically better with Ellis on the floor instead of Monk
- I wouldn't be surprised at all if we're statistically better with Carter on the floor instead of Monk in due time
- Monk should hold decent value around the league due to his production, age, and contract giving us a chance to add a solid frontcourt piece to balance the roster
I'm not necessarily saying we need to trade Monk at this trade deadline. I think it's logical to see how Carter continues to come along, but if he continues to develop the way I think he will and Ellis continues to prove he is the better statistical fit with Fox, I think a future Monk trade makes a lot of sense.
Now your answer may be "trade Fox, not Monk," but Fox is a lot better in those advanced impact stats than Monk (& Ellis)...
VPM: Monk = 128th / Ellis = 62nd / Fox = 38th
EPM: Monk = 132nd / Ellis = 79th / Fox = 37th
LEBRON: Monk = 71st / Ellis = 107th / Fox = 39th
DARKO: Monk = 203rd / Ellis = 98th / Fox = 13th
...and averaging the ranks across those 4 metrics, it comes out to...
AVG RANK: Monk = 134th / Ellis = 87th / Fox = 32nd
I just feel the writing may be on the wall somewhat since I think our most optimal guard rotation going forward will be Fox, Ellis, and Carter.
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I certainly appreciate all the research effort put into creating such an informative post.
There must be far more intangibles in play than we are privy to in order to see the on-floor results after studying the numbers. With the amount of money and time that the Kings' coaches have available, they must be aware of these numbers (or maybe they just read this forum!).
Unfortunately, intangibles such as leadership, injury, motivation, hustle, foot speed, personality, ego, etc. are difficult to measure but play a large part in who plays a significant role and who is trade fodder. Coach Christie has a difficult task in balancing the raw numbers you post and what he perceives as the most productive combination of players given the intangibles embedded in the mix.
Sitting Monk, as the statistics imply, may diminish some of the positives he brings. OTOH, sitting Keon similarly damages his positives. Hopefully, Coach Christie holds true to his win at all costs team philosophy and makes the right decisions. Glad he is doing it rather than others. He appears able to pull it off.
There must be far more intangibles in play than we are privy to in order to see the on-floor results after studying the numbers. With the amount of money and time that the Kings' coaches have available, they must be aware of these numbers (or maybe they just read this forum!).
Unfortunately, intangibles such as leadership, injury, motivation, hustle, foot speed, personality, ego, etc. are difficult to measure but play a large part in who plays a significant role and who is trade fodder. Coach Christie has a difficult task in balancing the raw numbers you post and what he perceives as the most productive combination of players given the intangibles embedded in the mix.
Sitting Monk, as the statistics imply, may diminish some of the positives he brings. OTOH, sitting Keon similarly damages his positives. Hopefully, Coach Christie holds true to his win at all costs team philosophy and makes the right decisions. Glad he is doing it rather than others. He appears able to pull it off.
All good stuff, but I'd make one adjustment: We aren't better with Monk off the floor, we're better with 2 of 3 (Fox/Monk/DDR) and 2 defensive studs (Keon/DC+Keegan). I think the issue is when we have all 4 of our offensive hubs on the floor together, they just pillage each other's USG and effectiveness on offense. When it's just 3 with the 2 defenders, things flow significantly better on offense and we keep 2 of our elite defenders on the floor.
And this was sort of my point in another thread...
Christie needs to be very careful with how he manages Monk in the meantime. As I mentioned previously, tt’s much easier to keep a guy on the bench that has never started vs. telling a guy who is currently starting to go back to the bench especially after…
And at the moment, Monk's trade value has probably never been higher. Do we strike while the iron is hot over the next 1.5 years? If Carter continues to develop into the player I think he will be, I think it makes sense to (especially if the piece we get back addresses our biggest weakness).
Christie needs to be very careful with how he manages Monk in the meantime. As I mentioned previously, tt’s much easier to keep a guy on the bench that has never started vs. telling a guy who is currently starting to go back to the bench especially after…
- He finally gets his chance to start after 2 years of coming off the bench (despite expressing his desire to start throughout the years)
- He’s been posting 18.6/4.1/6.5 as a starter
- Accepting a team friendly contract when he might have been able to make more money if he was starting the last couple of years
- The team’s record has been 11-8 while he’s been a starter (and he’s started every game during this 7 game winning streak)
- Allows us to play our most optimal lineups to start the game and close out the game (thus raising the team's ceiling and making us more impactful when it matters most)
- Avoids the potential locker room disruption if Monk is upset by being asked to come off the bench again and to no longer close out games
And at the moment, Monk's trade value has probably never been higher. Do we strike while the iron is hot over the next 1.5 years? If Carter continues to develop into the player I think he will be, I think it makes sense to (especially if the piece we get back addresses our biggest weakness).
Well we have only played a Fox-Monk-Ellis-Murray-Sabonis lineup for 8 minutes this year and we haven't played a Fox-Monk-Carter-Murray-Sabonis lineup this year yet so there's really not any data points to backup your claim. However, if we do extend the date range to include last year, we do have a 42 minute sample to reference for a Fox-Monk-Ellis-Murray-Sabonis lineup. That lineup's effectiveness was really poor with a -10.8 NETRTG. Now, it's still a small sample size but that's all the data we have to reference at the moment.
Talking about that lineup more in theory (since we don't have a lot of data yet), I'm not a fan of that being our starting lineup or closing lineup (which was the point of my original post) considering teams will be putting their best lineups on the floor during that time. Fox-Monk-Ellis-Murray-Sabonis will give up a lot of size and length against opponents, and they will be talented opponents who can take advantage of that mismatch (vs. if we were trotting out that lineup against big/tall/long bench players for stretches, I'd feel a bit more comfortable).
Talking about that lineup more in theory (since we don't have a lot of data yet), I'm not a fan of that being our starting lineup or closing lineup (which was the point of my original post) considering teams will be putting their best lineups on the floor during that time. Fox-Monk-Ellis-Murray-Sabonis will give up a lot of size and length against opponents, and they will be talented opponents who can take advantage of that mismatch (vs. if we were trotting out that lineup against big/tall/long bench players for stretches, I'd feel a bit more comfortable).
So far injuries have seemed to actually work in Christie's favor since he took over from Brown. It's been much easier to find minutes for Ellis, Carter, and even Huerter when Fox, Keegan, and it looks like now Monk have missed games.
When this team is fully healthy that may be a bit tougher to manage.
When this team is fully healthy that may be a bit tougher to manage.
One thing to keep in mind is that the main starting lineup that is in the negative is going to have a lot of minutes going up against the other team's starters. The Ellis minutes are probably weighed against the other teams bench a bit more which could skew the numbers a bit and make it seem like he's more impactful than he really is in comparison.
With that said, I do think he should be starting with Monk off the bench next to Carter. I think our starters are playing way too many minutes most nights.
With that said, I do think he should be starting with Monk off the bench next to Carter. I think our starters are playing way too many minutes most nights.
