Keon Tyrese Ellis
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
This will probably ruffle some feathers and not be something anyone wants to hear but one more benefit of getting Keon on a 4 year deal next season is if somehow he doesn't play nice with DC and Keon in some sort of 48 minutes of pure hell defensive system then he's far valuable in trade as far as what we will be allowed to get back.
@Capt. Factorial can come in over the top and clean this up if I have it wrong. 
If we decline Ellis' option this offseason, he becomes a Restricted Free Agent. And considering he would have only been under contract for 2 seasons with us, we will only have his Early Bird rights. I say "only" but this actually is a good thing for us. With Early Bird rights, you can offer a max of 175% of their previous salary or 105% of the league average salary from the previous season (whichever number is higher).
Playing out both of those calculations as it relates to Ellis...
Now someone could technically offer him a larger contract, but him being a RFA, we'd have the ability to match. However, Ellis would fall under the Arenas provision (similar to Herb Jones, Austin Reaves, etc.) which forces them to structure the contract in a way so that it is backloaded. This is the max contract a team could offer Ellis and how it would be restructured (not saying someone would actually offer him this though)...
So Ellis could technically be offered a max of $127,154,750 over 4 years. If Ellis is offered a backloaded contract like this and we match it, the cap hits would be exactly how it is laid out above. However, if we don't match the contract, the competing team would have the luxury of smoothing the $127 mil across all 4 years (vs. having the huge jumps in year 3 and year 4).
I would definitely be in favor of declining his option. Trying to resign him as a RFA vs. a UFA is huge, and being capped by what we can offer extension wise is sort of a plus as well. It would be similar to Monk's situation ("sorry Monk! We wish we could offer you more but this is the max the CBA allows us to give you"). We can offer Ellis that max extension before FA and see if he is bold enough to test the restricted free agency market. For a guy who has made less than $3 mil for his career, it would be pretty bold to turn down a $55 mil contract staring you in the face and risk restricted free agency. And for us, having Ellis locked up on a 4 year $55 mil deal seems like really solid value.
If we decline Ellis' option this offseason, he becomes a Restricted Free Agent. And considering he would have only been under contract for 2 seasons with us, we will only have his Early Bird rights. I say "only" but this actually is a good thing for us. With Early Bird rights, you can offer a max of 175% of their previous salary or 105% of the league average salary from the previous season (whichever number is higher).
Playing out both of those calculations as it relates to Ellis...
- 175% of Previous Salary: Ellis is only making $2,120,693 mil this year which means we could offer him a max of $3,711,213 in the 1st year of his new contract.
- 105% of Previous League Average Salary: The 2024-25 league average salary is reportedly $11,910,649 so that would would mean we could offer him a max of $12,506,181 in the 1st year of his new contract
Now someone could technically offer him a larger contract, but him being a RFA, we'd have the ability to match. However, Ellis would fall under the Arenas provision (similar to Herb Jones, Austin Reaves, etc.) which forces them to structure the contract in a way so that it is backloaded. This is the max contract a team could offer Ellis and how it would be restructured (not saying someone would actually offer him this though)...
- Year 1: $14,105,000 (the non-taxpayer MLE)
- Year 2: $14,810,250 (5% raise)
- Year 3: $46,780,750 (25% max salary)
- Year 4: $51,458,750 (25% max salary)
So Ellis could technically be offered a max of $127,154,750 over 4 years. If Ellis is offered a backloaded contract like this and we match it, the cap hits would be exactly how it is laid out above. However, if we don't match the contract, the competing team would have the luxury of smoothing the $127 mil across all 4 years (vs. having the huge jumps in year 3 and year 4).
I would definitely be in favor of declining his option. Trying to resign him as a RFA vs. a UFA is huge, and being capped by what we can offer extension wise is sort of a plus as well. It would be similar to Monk's situation ("sorry Monk! We wish we could offer you more but this is the max the CBA allows us to give you"). We can offer Ellis that max extension before FA and see if he is bold enough to test the restricted free agency market. For a guy who has made less than $3 mil for his career, it would be pretty bold to turn down a $55 mil contract staring you in the face and risk restricted free agency. And for us, having Ellis locked up on a 4 year $55 mil deal seems like really solid value.
Until tomorrow comes, that is
Most teams don't have the luxury to have 3 players like Keon, Keegan and Carter but hopefully we can get all of them onto second contracts before being forced to move any of them because all three play a style that almost any team is going to value. That's how good teams circumvent the cap, even though that's going to be harder than ever with this new CBA, you still might be able to trade one for an ender and picks if nothing else (again painful and not fun things to think about - but good teams always sell too early rather than too late).
This is how it could shake out...
These numbers assume...
As you can see, we're coming in above the luxury tax but below the 1st apron.
Looking at these numbers, it may be wise to hold onto Lyles at the deadline so we have the option of letting him walk (if we desperately need the extra money) or resign him to a cheaper deal than $8 mil (I feel like we might be able to resign him in that $4-6 mil range especially since he's so close with the guys on this team).
These numbers assume...
- We either kept Huerter or traded him for someone who makes a similar amount
- We either resigned Lyles to the same amount he makes today or traded him for someone who makes a similar amount (that wasn't an expiring)
- We resign Ellis to a 4 year $55 mil contract
- Our 2025 1st conveyed to ATL or we traded our 2025 1st for a package that includes no extra salary for the 2025-26 season
- We filled the rest of our roster (5 spots) with minimum contract players
As you can see, we're coming in above the luxury tax but below the 1st apron.
Looking at these numbers, it may be wise to hold onto Lyles at the deadline so we have the option of letting him walk (if we desperately need the extra money) or resign him to a cheaper deal than $8 mil (I feel like we might be able to resign him in that $4-6 mil range especially since he's so close with the guys on this team).
Yeah when it comes to contracts you probably want to be around Herb Jones level, not Bruce Brown unless Keon unlocks legit productivity in an area or two. Keegans tougher to guesstimate. Monte's probably going to have to pay for the size regardless. It'd be hard for Keegans agent to demand much more than whatever a current version of what someone like Jones' teammate Murphy got but who knows.
Crazy to think that Mike Brown couldn't or wouldn't find regular playing time for this guy two weeks ago, when the reality is that a 4 year 55 million contract is likely a bargain for what he brings.
I guess Huerter's offensive gravity pull was too great, for Keon to find time
I guess Huerter's offensive gravity pull was too great, for Keon to find time
