Welcome Devin Carter
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We still have some time before the trade deadline and for now the panic to make that big trade is starting to begin being from a lot stronger position. Other teams in the near future will begin to put players up and let’s see how that shakes out.
I will say that Huerter and his contract with some fillers ought to get us someone that will at least fill a position of need and putting him in a position to shine like the last few games may help us.
I will say that Huerter and his contract with some fillers ought to get us someone that will at least fill a position of need and putting him in a position to shine like the last few games may help us.
A few others have already pointed out the issues with you referencing Monk as a better PnR player and as someone who has better ball security, but I’ll take more of a macro approach and show how both Fox and Monk compare across many advanced impact stats…
Overall
EPM: Fox = +2.7 / Monk = +0.4
DARKO: Fox = +3.5 / Monk = -0.4
LEBRON: Fox = +1.7 / Monk = +0.9
RAPM: Fox = +2.1 / Monk = -1.6
VPM: Fox = +2.3 / Monk = +0.4
Offense
O-EPM: Fox = +2.6 / Monk = +1.3
O-DARKO: Fox = +3.5 / Monk = +0.7
O-LEBRON: Fox = +2.1 / Monk = +0.9
O-RAPM: Fox = +2.4 / Monk = +0.4
O-VPM: Fox = +2.4 / Monk = +0.9
Defense
D-EPM: Fox = +0.1 / Monk = -0.9
D-DARKO: Fox = +0.0 / Monk = -1.1
D-LEBRON: Fox = -0.3 / Monk = -0.1
D-RAPM: Fox = -0.3 / Monk = -2.0
D-VPM: Fox = -0.1 / Monk = -0.5
Overall
EPM: Fox = +2.7 / Monk = +0.4
DARKO: Fox = +3.5 / Monk = -0.4
LEBRON: Fox = +1.7 / Monk = +0.9
RAPM: Fox = +2.1 / Monk = -1.6
VPM: Fox = +2.3 / Monk = +0.4
Offense
O-EPM: Fox = +2.6 / Monk = +1.3
O-DARKO: Fox = +3.5 / Monk = +0.7
O-LEBRON: Fox = +2.1 / Monk = +0.9
O-RAPM: Fox = +2.4 / Monk = +0.4
O-VPM: Fox = +2.4 / Monk = +0.9
Defense
D-EPM: Fox = +0.1 / Monk = -0.9
D-DARKO: Fox = +0.0 / Monk = -1.1
D-LEBRON: Fox = -0.3 / Monk = -0.1
D-RAPM: Fox = -0.3 / Monk = -2.0
D-VPM: Fox = -0.1 / Monk = -0.5
So I saw the comment on turnovers which I agree with. I did not see anyone disagreeing with Monk being better in the pick and roll.
in terms of your overall metrics I already said Fox was a better defensive player. Depending on the metric you prefer that gap could be bigger or smaller.
on offense the problem with your overall metric is I am unsure to what extent it weights for minutes. Also in terms of overall stats wondering why you left out Net Rating?
Overall: Fox = 1.4 / Monk = 4.8
Offense: Fox = 113.1 / Monk = 115.8
Defense: Fox = 111.8 / Monk = 111.0
as far as pick and roll if you look at 2 player line-ups
Fox & Sabonis Off Net = 113.7
Monk & Sabonis Off Net = 117.3
in terms of your overall metrics I already said Fox was a better defensive player. Depending on the metric you prefer that gap could be bigger or smaller.
on offense the problem with your overall metric is I am unsure to what extent it weights for minutes. Also in terms of overall stats wondering why you left out Net Rating?
Overall: Fox = 1.4 / Monk = 4.8
Offense: Fox = 113.1 / Monk = 115.8
Defense: Fox = 111.8 / Monk = 111.0
as far as pick and roll if you look at 2 player line-ups
Fox & Sabonis Off Net = 113.7
Monk & Sabonis Off Net = 117.3
I do I think we should start Kepn or Carter but good luck getting monk back to the bench when he’s averaging 20-3-6 as a starting. Only way that’s happening is if we start losing games even if we’re a .500 team I don’t see how he’ll accept a bench role again.
Do we have defensive numbers with the two of them minus Derozan? I don’t think Derozan should be a starter next season
Do we have defensive numbers with the two of them minus Derozan? I don’t think Derozan should be a starter next season
@SacTownKid responded to your point about Monk being the better PnR player, but here are the more detailed stats to drive home the point…
PnR Ball Handler PPP Percentile
2024-25: Fox = 89th / Monk = 92nd
2023-24: Fox = 78th / Monk = 63rd
2022-23: Fox = 85th / Monk = 57th
Monk has been slightly more efficient in the PnR this year. However, Fox has performed the PnR at a higher frequency (30% vs. 25%). So they essentially have the same efficiency thus far this year but Fox is doing it in a larger volume. It’s similar to comparing two 35% 3PT shooters but one takes 4 3PA per 36 min but the other takes 7 3PA per 36 min. You’d give the nod to the guy that does it on higher volume.
And that’s just looking at this year. Fox has been comfortably ahead of him efficiency-wise the previous 2 seasons.
As for the advanced impact stats I posted, they do control for minutes played allowing you to compare the impact of two players who play a different amount of minutes per game.
The reason I didn’t include Net Rating is that it is a less sophisticated measurement of a players impact vs. the metrics I posted. It doesn’t attempt to control for the strength of the teammates on the floor with you, the strength of the opposing players on the floor with you, etc. Just to help drive home the point, let’s use a hypothetical example to show why Net Rating can be flawed when using it for an individuals impact…
The Boston Celtics have a very formidable roster and currently have a MVP candidate in Tatum. Now let’s say their coach decided to be very drastic with his rotations and start Pritchard, Springer, Hauser, Tatum, & Kornet. 6 minutes into the 1st quarter, the coach decides to do a hockey substitution and sub in Holiday, White, Brown, Porzingis, & Horford. Then with 6 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, the coach subs back in Pritchard, Springer, Hauser, Tatum, & Kornet.
Now if this subbing pattern was replicated game after game after game after game, I’d venture to guess that Jaylen Brown would have a better net rating than Tatum because 1) the teammates Brown plays with when he is on the floor are much better than Tatum’s teammates when he is on the floor and 2) the competition Brownis playing against should be weaker because opposing team’s 2nd units tend to play towards the end of the 1st quarter and the beginning of the 2nd quarter.
As you can see, a better Net Rating doesn’t necessarily mean you are a more impactful player. There are many other variables that can play a role.
PnR Ball Handler PPP Percentile
2024-25: Fox = 89th / Monk = 92nd
2023-24: Fox = 78th / Monk = 63rd
2022-23: Fox = 85th / Monk = 57th
Monk has been slightly more efficient in the PnR this year. However, Fox has performed the PnR at a higher frequency (30% vs. 25%). So they essentially have the same efficiency thus far this year but Fox is doing it in a larger volume. It’s similar to comparing two 35% 3PT shooters but one takes 4 3PA per 36 min but the other takes 7 3PA per 36 min. You’d give the nod to the guy that does it on higher volume.
And that’s just looking at this year. Fox has been comfortably ahead of him efficiency-wise the previous 2 seasons.
As for the advanced impact stats I posted, they do control for minutes played allowing you to compare the impact of two players who play a different amount of minutes per game.
The reason I didn’t include Net Rating is that it is a less sophisticated measurement of a players impact vs. the metrics I posted. It doesn’t attempt to control for the strength of the teammates on the floor with you, the strength of the opposing players on the floor with you, etc. Just to help drive home the point, let’s use a hypothetical example to show why Net Rating can be flawed when using it for an individuals impact…
The Boston Celtics have a very formidable roster and currently have a MVP candidate in Tatum. Now let’s say their coach decided to be very drastic with his rotations and start Pritchard, Springer, Hauser, Tatum, & Kornet. 6 minutes into the 1st quarter, the coach decides to do a hockey substitution and sub in Holiday, White, Brown, Porzingis, & Horford. Then with 6 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, the coach subs back in Pritchard, Springer, Hauser, Tatum, & Kornet.
Now if this subbing pattern was replicated game after game after game after game, I’d venture to guess that Jaylen Brown would have a better net rating than Tatum because 1) the teammates Brown plays with when he is on the floor are much better than Tatum’s teammates when he is on the floor and 2) the competition Brownis playing against should be weaker because opposing team’s 2nd units tend to play towards the end of the 1st quarter and the beginning of the 2nd quarter.
As you can see, a better Net Rating doesn’t necessarily mean you are a more impactful player. There are many other variables that can play a role.
We do!
On: Fox & Monk / Off: DeRozan
DEFRTG = 106.3 (171 min sample size)
On: Fox, Monk, & DeRozan
DEFRTG = 116.6 (414 min sample size)
That’s a difference of 10.3 points given up per 100 possessions. That’s massive.
To drill down a bit more, this is how the current 4 starters with DeRozan on and off looks…
On: Fox, Monk, Murray, & Sabonis / Off: DeRozan
DEFRTG = 95.5 (57 min sample size)
On: Fox, Monk, DeRozan, Murray, & Sabonis
DEFRTG = 116.4 (251 min sample size)
Obviously 57 min is on the smaller side but that’s showing that we give up 20.9 less points per 100 possessions when DeRozan is not on the floor with the rest of our starters. If DeRozan is replaced with a good defensive PF, perhaps we could have a pretty effective defensive unit…despite Monk starting at SG.
On: Fox & Monk / Off: DeRozan
DEFRTG = 106.3 (171 min sample size)
On: Fox, Monk, & DeRozan
DEFRTG = 116.6 (414 min sample size)
That’s a difference of 10.3 points given up per 100 possessions. That’s massive.
To drill down a bit more, this is how the current 4 starters with DeRozan on and off looks…
On: Fox, Monk, Murray, & Sabonis / Off: DeRozan
DEFRTG = 95.5 (57 min sample size)
On: Fox, Monk, DeRozan, Murray, & Sabonis
DEFRTG = 116.4 (251 min sample size)
Obviously 57 min is on the smaller side but that’s showing that we give up 20.9 less points per 100 possessions when DeRozan is not on the floor with the rest of our starters. If DeRozan is replaced with a good defensive PF, perhaps we could have a pretty effective defensive unit…despite Monk starting at SG.
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Carter had 5 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks in... 9 minutes of action.
I guess he will start playing more than Huerter in the near future (15' today) and will reduce some of Monk's time on the floor when Fox will be back on the lineup. I hope we won't have the need to "showcase" Huerter before the trade deadline, if the team is full healthy some DNPs might come his way.
Btw Colby today had 6/9 3s for the Stockton squad, he might also be in the mix.
I guess he will start playing more than Huerter in the near future (15' today) and will reduce some of Monk's time on the floor when Fox will be back on the lineup. I hope we won't have the need to "showcase" Huerter before the trade deadline, if the team is full healthy some DNPs might come his way.
Btw Colby today had 6/9 3s for the Stockton squad, he might also be in the mix.
Eh not necessarily. These stats don’t consider many variables.
For instance, when Fox, Monk, and DeRozan are on the floor together, they’re very likely playing against the opposing teams starters/best players since those three have been starting many games together and closing many games together. When Fox & Monk are on the floor and DeRozan is off the floor, it’s likely that this stretch of the game is against some of the opposing team’s backups.
I think it's more important to try and analyze advanced impact stats that attempt to control for those differences across players. Below are all of the defensive advanced impact stats for our players this year:
I went ahead and just did a strict average in the last column across all 5 metrics just in an attempt to blend some of these together to see which players tend to come out on top defensively.
It's showing that Monk is our 2nd worst defender (only McDermott is worse), and Ellis is comfortably our best defender. I contemplated just making Carter's entire row "NA" since these stats can't be used on a 44 minute sample size, but it will be interesting to see how these stats change for him as his sample grows.
Considering Fox is hovering around average defensively (which I'm not shocked by considering he doesn't give the same level of effort defensively all game long and he's not the best off-ball defender), I think it will be important to start a strong defender at SG next to him long term. That also allows Fox to save some of that energy so he can focus on the offensive end more and be strategic with when he dials up his defensive intensity. Ellis would be a perfect fit (and Carter, in time, may be as well).
For instance, when Fox, Monk, and DeRozan are on the floor together, they’re very likely playing against the opposing teams starters/best players since those three have been starting many games together and closing many games together. When Fox & Monk are on the floor and DeRozan is off the floor, it’s likely that this stretch of the game is against some of the opposing team’s backups.
I think it's more important to try and analyze advanced impact stats that attempt to control for those differences across players. Below are all of the defensive advanced impact stats for our players this year:
I went ahead and just did a strict average in the last column across all 5 metrics just in an attempt to blend some of these together to see which players tend to come out on top defensively.
It's showing that Monk is our 2nd worst defender (only McDermott is worse), and Ellis is comfortably our best defender. I contemplated just making Carter's entire row "NA" since these stats can't be used on a 44 minute sample size, but it will be interesting to see how these stats change for him as his sample grows.
Considering Fox is hovering around average defensively (which I'm not shocked by considering he doesn't give the same level of effort defensively all game long and he's not the best off-ball defender), I think it will be important to start a strong defender at SG next to him long term. That also allows Fox to save some of that energy so he can focus on the offensive end more and be strategic with when he dials up his defensive intensity. Ellis would be a perfect fit (and Carter, in time, may be as well).
Yeah, you can't use 2 man lineup stats with any sort of certainty unless it's something like a specific play set. The defensive stats with Monk in with the starters is pretty strong in terms of result since Brown has essentially used Monk as the real SG since day 1 because Monk was always getting those end of game minutes. Monk is pretty easy to read with the eye test. He's as streaky on D as he is on O. The Kings starting lineup on paper has 1 defender in Keegan I guess we'll see if it's enough. Also, the Kings are improving as they've put Keon and Carter more on POA. In the Heat game, DC made an nice adjustment late by switching up and putting Keegan there and it really threw the Heat off late. Doug has certainly been a coach willing to give different looks on both ends and it's coaching 101 to a T.
Generally speaking, Herro is a guy who can really beat you with his jump shot and shooting when he creates space. Jaquez beats you with the drive and getting to the rim.
Having Murray defend Herro really makes it tough for him to get his shot off (even if he gets by him) because of the significant length advantage Murray has. Whereas, Ellis didn’t really have to worry about Jaquez shooting over the top off him. He just needed to stay in front of him and strip/pressure his dribble (which Ellis is great at).
Having Murray defend Herro really makes it tough for him to get his shot off (even if he gets by him) because of the significant length advantage Murray has. Whereas, Ellis didn’t really have to worry about Jaquez shooting over the top off him. He just needed to stay in front of him and strip/pressure his dribble (which Ellis is great at).
A few fans have questioned his form on the three-point shot, but to my mind, it is very similar to Max Strus, only with a higher arch. From the point of view of geometry, a high arch means that more of the hoop is available; in other words, it makes the hoop bigger. Carter knows this and said so in a recent interview. He also knows that having the ball bounce up, rather than ricocheting away at a crazy angle, gives his teammates--Sabonis--a better chance at the offensive rebound.