[Game] 18/82: Kings vs. Thunder 25 NOV 2024, 7pm PT/10pm ET
- Thread starter Mr. S£im Citrus
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Huerter career shooting:
38.5%- 4.7 3PA
38%- 6.0 3PA
36.3%- 5.6 3PA
38.9%- 5.6 3PA
40.2%- 6.8 3PA
36.1%- 5.3 3PA
This season:
28.4%- 5.9 3PA
Keegan shooting:
41.1%- 6.3 3PA
35.8%- 6.6 3PA
This Season:
29.5%- 5.8 3PA
Monk is a bit of a different case because he really took a leap his last year in CHA after really struggling his first few seasons. So if we take those years once he truly became an NBA player:
40.1%--5.0 3PA
39.1%- 5.8 3PA
35.9%- 5.2 3PA
35.0%- 5.9 3PA
This season:
28.0%-- 4.5 3PA
Doug is well below is career average too, but he really doesn't matter as an end of bencher. But yeah, the above 3 all have historical precedent of being excellent shooters and are underperforming by at least 8% as a group. That's A LOT of points being left on the board. Especially if we consider the shot quality these guys mostly get.
Trey Lyles (Long-term role player, pretty swingy shooter year over year, but underperforming what he's done in a Kings uniform)
36.5%- 2.6 3PA
36.3%-- 3.2 3PA
38.4%-- 3.8 3PA
This Season:
33.3%--3.7 3PA
Should also be noted with Lyles his 2pt FG% has drastically dropped. In a Kings uni:
55.7%--4.8 2PA
59.5%--2.3 2PA
57.8%--1.8 2PA
This season:
44.0%-- 1.4 2PA
38.5%- 4.7 3PA
38%- 6.0 3PA
36.3%- 5.6 3PA
38.9%- 5.6 3PA
40.2%- 6.8 3PA
36.1%- 5.3 3PA
This season:
28.4%- 5.9 3PA
Keegan shooting:
41.1%- 6.3 3PA
35.8%- 6.6 3PA
This Season:
29.5%- 5.8 3PA
Monk is a bit of a different case because he really took a leap his last year in CHA after really struggling his first few seasons. So if we take those years once he truly became an NBA player:
40.1%--5.0 3PA
39.1%- 5.8 3PA
35.9%- 5.2 3PA
35.0%- 5.9 3PA
This season:
28.0%-- 4.5 3PA
Doug is well below is career average too, but he really doesn't matter as an end of bencher. But yeah, the above 3 all have historical precedent of being excellent shooters and are underperforming by at least 8% as a group. That's A LOT of points being left on the board. Especially if we consider the shot quality these guys mostly get.
Trey Lyles (Long-term role player, pretty swingy shooter year over year, but underperforming what he's done in a Kings uniform)
36.5%- 2.6 3PA
36.3%-- 3.2 3PA
38.4%-- 3.8 3PA
This Season:
33.3%--3.7 3PA
Should also be noted with Lyles his 2pt FG% has drastically dropped. In a Kings uni:
55.7%--4.8 2PA
59.5%--2.3 2PA
57.8%--1.8 2PA
This season:
44.0%-- 1.4 2PA
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last year open 3’s 4-6 ft
Kevin shot 36.2
Keegan shot 29.5
Trey shot 32.9
Malik shot 34.6
of those only Kevin is considered a good percentage on open 3’s.
this year on open 3’s
Malik 31.6
Trey 26.3
Kevin 25.0
Keegan 18.0
yes we are down this year but really we have gone from slightly below average to horrendous. That doesn’t even account for the drop of Barnes to DeRozan.
Kevin shot 36.2
Keegan shot 29.5
Trey shot 32.9
Malik shot 34.6
of those only Kevin is considered a good percentage on open 3’s.
this year on open 3’s
Malik 31.6
Trey 26.3
Kevin 25.0
Keegan 18.0
yes we are down this year but really we have gone from slightly below average to horrendous. That doesn’t even account for the drop of Barnes to DeRozan.
The attempts is what alarms me. DeRozan being on this team has functionally changed the offense.
Bulls 3PA/game the 3 seasons with DeRozan:
21-22: 28.8 (last)
22-23: 28.9 (last)
23-24: 32.1 (26th)
This year without DeMar: 42.6 (3rd)
Kings last 2 seasons with Coach Brown:
22-23: 37.3 (6th)
23-24: 39.3 (3rd)
This year with DeMar: 34.4 (24th)
Admittedly that isn't a huge drop off from 22-23, but the rank is as teams shoot more and more 3s each season. When I look at the teams that rank in the bottom third of 3PA/game and make the playoffs, they are teams with a defensive identity (ie Twolves, Magic). The Kings with Sabonis at C will be hard pressed to ever make their hay as a defensive team. What is their identity this year? I'm not sure, and maybe they aren't sure either.
Bulls 3PA/game the 3 seasons with DeRozan:
21-22: 28.8 (last)
22-23: 28.9 (last)
23-24: 32.1 (26th)
This year without DeMar: 42.6 (3rd)
Kings last 2 seasons with Coach Brown:
22-23: 37.3 (6th)
23-24: 39.3 (3rd)
This year with DeMar: 34.4 (24th)
Admittedly that isn't a huge drop off from 22-23, but the rank is as teams shoot more and more 3s each season. When I look at the teams that rank in the bottom third of 3PA/game and make the playoffs, they are teams with a defensive identity (ie Twolves, Magic). The Kings with Sabonis at C will be hard pressed to ever make their hay as a defensive team. What is their identity this year? I'm not sure, and maybe they aren't sure either.
As much as we’ve been harping about rotation and scheme, one of the most concerning things for me about Brown’s tenure is which players have really developed and evolved under him. Who has really elevated their play? We watch OKC and we see a ton of dudes make huge strides every year to help them be a top 5 team. They even had the luxury of trading Giddy (and ramping up their D) since JDub has developed into a star.
Keegan has evolved his defense and rebounding but his offense has gone backwards. Huerter has gotten worse since his first season with us.
Davion is making contributions with Toronto after getting worse every year with us since his rookie season. Queta is a key role player for the Celtics.
I don’t know what it is but our talent development has not been good to say the least. We like to draft high floor guys, but then we get frustrated when we can’t breakthrough. If we’re going to compete for a playoff spot moving forward, we really need to reevaluate how we draft, take some swings, and demand better development out of our prospects
Keegan has evolved his defense and rebounding but his offense has gone backwards. Huerter has gotten worse since his first season with us.
Davion is making contributions with Toronto after getting worse every year with us since his rookie season. Queta is a key role player for the Celtics.
I don’t know what it is but our talent development has not been good to say the least. We like to draft high floor guys, but then we get frustrated when we can’t breakthrough. If we’re going to compete for a playoff spot moving forward, we really need to reevaluate how we draft, take some swings, and demand better development out of our prospects
I won’t argue against that as he always struggled to score with us. We kind of thought his 1 outlier season with Baylor where had him some elite shooting numbers was going to be the norm. But, bringing it back to the main point, why couldn’t we develop him to at least find a happy medium? His shooting technique (and loft) was always something that bothered me for being a lottery pick
I looked into it a few days ago. Basically we're getting the same level of open shots, but shooting like 8% worse than last season. Roughly 3% less wide open shots than last season, but hitting those about the same percentage as last season.
Basically comes down to we're just not hitting shots. Our shot quality basically has stayed constant, but guys we've depended on for our spacing aren't hitting this year. Dunno.
Basically comes down to we're just not hitting shots. Our shot quality basically has stayed constant, but guys we've depended on for our spacing aren't hitting this year. Dunno.
It really feels like the more open Huerter and Keegan are, the more they hesitate and have a bad stroke. That Huerter wide open 3 with a few mins left last night, he kind of hesitated and he knew as soon as he shot it is wasn’t good. Same with Keegan in the 4th. It’s really in their head and I’m sure the coaches and stats guys prolly telling them they just need to shoot out of their slump may not be helping them. I think that logic applies to someone who doesn’t give a **** like Malik, but Huerter and Keegan look more cerebral in their approach
Player development has been concerning. The last couple of years it feels like players have gotten worse offensively, except Fox and Keon. Everyone else has gone the wrong direction.
Though I think improvement has been made on the defensive side for multiple players.
Whoever is responsible for developing guys on offense and their shooting is not doing a good job.
Guys that have been great shooters their whole careers don’t just forget how to shoot. So are we trying to tweak things with their form? Are we coaching them to overthink when they get the ball? Is it a result of trying to bulk up those guys too much messing with muscle memory?
Though I think improvement has been made on the defensive side for multiple players.
Whoever is responsible for developing guys on offense and their shooting is not doing a good job.
Guys that have been great shooters their whole careers don’t just forget how to shoot. So are we trying to tweak things with their form? Are we coaching them to overthink when they get the ball? Is it a result of trying to bulk up those guys too much messing with muscle memory?
When it comes to shooting, it has to be a subconscious thing. I’m speculating but I think we are doing technique work with them and that is stuff that’s hard to make a natural thing in the middle of the season. Ideally you do that stuff in the off season. Last season, both Huerter and Keegan saw a ton of shooting variance. I believe I read that we did some technique stuff in the middle of the season that was just tough to implement in between games
Huerter never really had a pretty looking stroke, but something looks different about it now, compared to when he was at his best. To me it looks like he brings the ball too much up his left side...then moves it over to the right as he nears his release. I never noticed as much of this in 22/23. Some have called this a "hitch" for lack of a better term.
Ideally you want the ball to move straighter up to your release point.
Ideally you want the ball to move straighter up to your release point.
I’m gonna start this by saying I can’t stand Nick wright. More for his Brock Purdy takes but I understand he got his start talking basketball. Anyway, I watched an interesting video with Nick talking about how today’s youth in general doesn’t care about the NBA. He also said this might be a problem because opening day this year, he really didn’t care either. He also brought up a conversation he had 6 years ago with Daryl morey about the effects of 3 point shooting on the game. Daryl Morey ended up telling him it’s not his problem. If the league doesn’t like it they should change the rules.
Anyway, he says it’s time for the league to change the rules regarding the 3 because of the proliferation of the 3 and what it’s done to interest in the game. Here’s some interesting stats:
in the 80’s, teams took an average of 3.5 3’s a game.
90’s: 11.4
2000’s: 15.7
2010’s: 23.1
Currently: 37
I find these numbers interesting because personally I’ve lost interest in watching most games because most games have turned into chuck fests and I find that incredibly boring. My circle of friends have the same reaction to that type of game. I’m wondering how many here enjoy when the kings take mutitudes of 3’s, of course most are misses. It’s mind numbingly boring.
Nicks best solution to this was to place a cap on the amount of 3’s a team can make per game. Say that number is 15. After 15 3’s those 3 point shots are then 2’s. I think that would be outstanding.
If the game continues without adjustments I feel the game is in serious trouble. Ratings are already dipping and I think that could get exponentially worse.
Anyway, he says it’s time for the league to change the rules regarding the 3 because of the proliferation of the 3 and what it’s done to interest in the game. Here’s some interesting stats:
in the 80’s, teams took an average of 3.5 3’s a game.
90’s: 11.4
2000’s: 15.7
2010’s: 23.1
Currently: 37
I find these numbers interesting because personally I’ve lost interest in watching most games because most games have turned into chuck fests and I find that incredibly boring. My circle of friends have the same reaction to that type of game. I’m wondering how many here enjoy when the kings take mutitudes of 3’s, of course most are misses. It’s mind numbingly boring.
Nicks best solution to this was to place a cap on the amount of 3’s a team can make per game. Say that number is 15. After 15 3’s those 3 point shots are then 2’s. I think that would be outstanding.
If the game continues without adjustments I feel the game is in serious trouble. Ratings are already dipping and I think that could get exponentially worse.
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Yah, unfortunately the data shows 2s are not an “efficient” way to score, whatever that means. I think the most immediate thing you could do if there is a strong linkage between viewership and today’s style (I don’t think there is, I think younger demographic is just not as interested in watch hoops than boomer and gen X), is to lengthen the 3pt line. They have enough data points to show what the precise distance is that no longer makes the 3 the most efficient way to score
The Bulls have a worse winning percentage, basically the same ORTG ranking on offense and for whatever reason their defense has tanked from where it was last year. 3pt shooting has gone way up and their percentages are good too. The 3pt shooting hasn't really improved their offense with DeMar being gone. Small sample size but that's where we're at now.
It's the percentages on both offense and defense that are way out of whack for us.
Our guys just need to shoot league average. Here are 5 games where our 3pt shooting just flat out lost the game for us.
SAC 34% - LAL 41%.
SAC 25% - TOR 46%
SAC 12% - LAC 47%
SAC 26% - SAS 48%
SAC 32% - MIN 41%
Crazy thing is that a lot of these games are close and either shooting average or holding their opponents to average would have basically given them a 10pt win. Its just night in and night out that not only do they not shoot well, but they allow their opponents to shoot with crazy efficiency due to the scheme they're running. The shooting is squarely on the backs of Keegan, Huerter and Monk because they're missing open opportunities all game long. The defensive scheme is ultimately on Brown for allowing Luke Loucks to create a scheme that constantly double teams for no reason and leaves shooters wide open. I think he's doing it to protect Sabonis' rim protecting liabilities but it's not effective in this day and age. It would be great in like 1995 but it's the exact opposite of what is needed in 2024.
It's the percentages on both offense and defense that are way out of whack for us.
Our guys just need to shoot league average. Here are 5 games where our 3pt shooting just flat out lost the game for us.
SAC 34% - LAL 41%.
SAC 25% - TOR 46%
SAC 12% - LAC 47%
SAC 26% - SAS 48%
SAC 32% - MIN 41%
Crazy thing is that a lot of these games are close and either shooting average or holding their opponents to average would have basically given them a 10pt win. Its just night in and night out that not only do they not shoot well, but they allow their opponents to shoot with crazy efficiency due to the scheme they're running. The shooting is squarely on the backs of Keegan, Huerter and Monk because they're missing open opportunities all game long. The defensive scheme is ultimately on Brown for allowing Luke Loucks to create a scheme that constantly double teams for no reason and leaves shooters wide open. I think he's doing it to protect Sabonis' rim protecting liabilities but it's not effective in this day and age. It would be great in like 1995 but it's the exact opposite of what is needed in 2024.
That defensive scheme is also tiring. It's possible to believe that both issues are related - we're inefficiently expending energy on the defensive end, leading to tired legs on the offensive end from the outside. It seems like a simplistic viewpoint, but absent more complex logic, sometimes the simple solution is the correct one. The disparity in the Clippers/SAS games alone is maddening.
I'm all for expending energy defensively at the cost of offense IF it's working or we're doing it correctly. It either isn't working, or we're not doing it correctly. Funneling shots toward the 3 when everyone in the NBA is looking to take them seems illogical, but maybe there's something in the advanced metrics that we don't know. Someone posted that our defense isn't TECHNICALLY that bad, but the main stat here is W-L, and we're definitely not where we want to be.
I'm all for expending energy defensively at the cost of offense IF it's working or we're doing it correctly. It either isn't working, or we're not doing it correctly. Funneling shots toward the 3 when everyone in the NBA is looking to take them seems illogical, but maybe there's something in the advanced metrics that we don't know. Someone posted that our defense isn't TECHNICALLY that bad, but the main stat here is W-L, and we're definitely not where we want to be.
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