[Game] (Preseason)Kings vs Warriors, 10/9/2024 7:30PM Pacific, 10:30PM East (ESPN)
- Thread starter Tetsujin
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We still have one open roster slot, so no reason to cut Colby as of yet. It seems to me that this front office likes to give its draft picks two years to develop before cutting ties so it seems a lot more likely to me that he's going to spend his time largely in Stockton until progress becomes apparent. I would expect that if he continues to stall out that his third year is in doubt (we appear to have two options on next year's deal, a July 1 2025 option for the minimum and a Jan 10 2026 option for the remainder).
In Brown's first year coaching the Kings, he had two McDaniels prototypes in Kessler Edwards and KZ Okpala. Between them they got a total of 554 minutes (less than 7 minutes a game over the 82-game season) and they appeared in a cumulative 57 games between them. Last year Brown had only Edwards in that role, who amassed 275 minutes total and appeared in 54 games (less than 3.5 minutes a game over the 82-game season).
Regardless of whether Brown likes to have a guy like that on his roster, it certainly doesn't look like he overuses them.
Regardless of whether Brown likes to have a guy like that on his roster, it certainly doesn't look like he overuses them.
Good to see Len active out there - a 31 year old 7 footer doesn't always come into camp moving that well, but he looked fresh with his movements which was encouraging. He even beat his man down the court on a made basket and got a layup. He had 5 assists in 21 minutes and watching some highlights he actually set up McDaniels 3 times in the 3rd and he missed 2 3's and a layup ... Could have easily had a wilder stat-line of 10-9-8 in his minutes. I'd like for Brown to play Sabonis-Len 34-14 or 32-16 this season. Last year was too much with the 38-10 distribution most games.
It's weird to average out two players' numbers like that.
The story of KZ is that Brown started the season playing him 16 and 18 minutes a game, and when he scored 0 and 3 points in those matchups Brown quickly hid him on the bench. The lesson of the KZ saga is that Coach Brown may have strong opinions about the value of defensive wings, but is capable of backtracking when his wrong ideas fail.
Kessler averaged 14 minutes a game in '22-'23
The story of KZ is that Brown started the season playing him 16 and 18 minutes a game, and when he scored 0 and 3 points in those matchups Brown quickly hid him on the bench. The lesson of the KZ saga is that Coach Brown may have strong opinions about the value of defensive wings, but is capable of backtracking when his wrong ideas fail.
Kessler averaged 14 minutes a game in '22-'23
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By grouping KZ and Kessler's minutes together, then dividing on a per game basis, you created an average number of minutes per game for the the group. Maybe there's a better term for this, I don't know all the words
It seems the intent of what you're saying is that McDaniels is similar to KZ and Kessler, so we should expect Brown to use him in a similar way. My criticism is that KZ and Kessler had wildly different amounts of playing time, so trying to judge based on their aggregated playing time isn't valid.
It seems the intent of what you're saying is that McDaniels is similar to KZ and Kessler, so we should expect Brown to use him in a similar way. My criticism is that KZ and Kessler had wildly different amounts of playing time, so trying to judge based on their aggregated playing time isn't valid.
Well, yes, I think they're similar players. They're all athletic wings that play pretty good defense and have little to no offensive value in the NBA. So when a concern arises that Brown will "overplay" McDaniels, then Brown's previous use of this archetype of player seems relevant.
But they didn't have wildly different amounts of playing time. In the '22-'23 season, when they were on the team together, Kessler played 306 minutes and Okpala played 248 minutes. My point is that in '22-'23, Brown had two of these guys on his roster, and only played them a total of 554 minutes in the season, which isn't a ton. In '23-'24, when Brown only had one of these type of guys on the roster (Kessler), he only played him 275 minutes in the season. So while popular wisdom says that Brown loves him some defensive wings, given his actual history the most reasonable answer to the question "will he overplay this year's defensive wing?" is "No."
But they didn't have wildly different amounts of playing time. In the '22-'23 season, when they were on the team together, Kessler played 306 minutes and Okpala played 248 minutes. My point is that in '22-'23, Brown had two of these guys on his roster, and only played them a total of 554 minutes in the season, which isn't a ton. In '23-'24, when Brown only had one of these type of guys on the roster (Kessler), he only played him 275 minutes in the season. So while popular wisdom says that Brown loves him some defensive wings, given his actual history the most reasonable answer to the question "will he overplay this year's defensive wing?" is "No."
I'm with you here. Similar type of player
Here's my point, Okpala averages out to a 7 MPG player, Edwards is a 14 MPG player. Those are significantly different outcomes for players sharing the same archetype. I don't see the predictive value of grouping those players together. I think it obscures the signal
In Brown's first two games as head coach, Brown played KZ Okpala 17 MPG
Kessler, after his first 6 games with the team, was a 16 MPG player.
I think that's a better way of assessing how much Brown values that role.
Here's my point, Okpala averages out to a 7 MPG player, Edwards is a 14 MPG player. Those are significantly different outcomes for players sharing the same archetype. I don't see the predictive value of grouping those players together. I think it obscures the signal
In Brown's first two games as head coach, Brown played KZ Okpala 17 MPG
Kessler, after his first 6 games with the team, was a 16 MPG player.
I think that's a better way of assessing how much Brown values that role.
In Brown's third game as head coach, Okpala played 3 minutes and 34 seconds because another player claimed Okpala's "placeholder" starting spot much earlier than expected. His name was Keegan Murray. For the rest of the season Okpala had a total of 8 games where he broke 10 minutes compared to 16 DNP-CDs, 4 games where he played less than a minute, and 9 games being completely inactive - before being cut in February following 11 consecutive DNP-CD/inactive games.
Edwards was a 16 MPG player over the last 17 games of the season...until the playoffs hit and he played under 7 minutes total in 7 games, so less than 1 MPG.
I think the record shows that Brown values a player like Keegan Murray far, far more than he values a player like Edwards or Okpala, particularly in the playoffs. Let's look at it this way - because we traded for Edwards before cutting Okpala, Brown has had 164 regular season games where he has had the opportunity to play a player of this prototype 10+ minutes. He has done so only 36 times, 25 times in '22-'23 (30%) and 11 times in '23-'24 (13%). And lest we forget, some (many??) of those games were blowouts.
This isn't the record of a coach who overplays a no-offense wing for defensive purposes. It's just not. Barring major injuries, Jalen McDaniels is probably going to fall in at somewhere between 300-500 minutes this year. And that's nothing to freak out about.
Edwards was a 16 MPG player over the last 17 games of the season...until the playoffs hit and he played under 7 minutes total in 7 games, so less than 1 MPG.
I think the record shows that Brown values a player like Keegan Murray far, far more than he values a player like Edwards or Okpala, particularly in the playoffs. Let's look at it this way - because we traded for Edwards before cutting Okpala, Brown has had 164 regular season games where he has had the opportunity to play a player of this prototype 10+ minutes. He has done so only 36 times, 25 times in '22-'23 (30%) and 11 times in '23-'24 (13%). And lest we forget, some (many??) of those games were blowouts.
This isn't the record of a coach who overplays a no-offense wing for defensive purposes. It's just not. Barring major injuries, Jalen McDaniels is probably going to fall in at somewhere between 300-500 minutes this year. And that's nothing to freak out about.
KZ didn't thrive, forcing Brown to change his strategy and rely on offensive firepower. Edwards was acquired to try and scratch the same itch, and eventually gained consistent minutes (too many of them IMHO). The playoff rotations were wacky in general with matchup meta-gaming; (I'm not sure what we'd see in a second round, but I'd bet it wouldn't be overly related to the first. I'll throw that data out)
Keegan Murray has evolved into the role of defensive wing, (with some baby steps into self-creation) so the overall point is likely moot. I'm not scared of McDaniels getting excessive ineffective minutes.
Keegan Murray has evolved into the role of defensive wing, (with some baby steps into self-creation) so the overall point is likely moot. I'm not scared of McDaniels getting excessive ineffective minutes.